Forecasting Tricks for the Vail Valley (February 4, 2014)
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Transcript of Forecasting Tricks for the Vail Valley (February 4, 2014)
![Page 1: Forecasting Tricks for the Vail Valley (February 4, 2014)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042813/54b651cf4a79591b4a8b4740/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley.
Photo: Connor Walberg ActionPhotoSchool.com
Meteorologist Joel Gratz
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1960
2005
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I want to remove the mystery of Colorado weather.
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Hi, I’m Joel Gratz.I grew up in Pennsylvania, ski raced and instructed, then moved to Colorado after college.
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And I started to miss powder days due to inaccurate forecasts.
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Dec 2007 28 people email list
2008-2009 500 people email list
2009-2010 245,000 pageviews
2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews
2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews
2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews
2013-2014 ~18,000,000 pageviews
So I learned how to forecast in Colorado, and started to share.
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This is where we look for El Nino or La Nina.
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Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for La Nina.
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Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for El Nino.
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But it is (probably) a La Nada.
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Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for La Nada.
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It snowed in Aspen during September.
Of the past 22 Septembers with snow, 19 of the
ensuing winters have been average or above.
- Cory Gates, AspenWeather.net
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Perhaps there’s another clue. !
We set a snowfall record in April and a rainfall record in September for Boulder. Does this tell us anything about winter snow in the mountains?
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Each line shows amount of snow on the ground for various weather stations, during winters after heavy precipitation in Boulder.
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 April 1
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!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!_[(
Ouray
Aspen
Ouray
Pueblo
Durango
Alamosa
Boulder
Gunnison
Fort Collins
Grand Junction
Colorado Springs
Glenwood Springs
Steamboat Springs
Arkansas
South Platte
Gunnison
Upper Colorado Headwaters
Yampa and White
Upper Rio Grande
San Miguel, Dolores,
Animas and San Juan
Laramie and North Platte
114
123
84
115
82
121
105
118
Denver
§̈¦76
§̈¦25
ColoradoSNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal
§̈¦70
0 20 40 60 80 10010Miles
Provisional Data Subject to Revision
Current Snow WaterEquivalent (SWE)Basin-wide Percentof 1981-2010 Median
unavailable *
<50%
50 - 69%
70 - 89%
90 - 109%
110 - 129%
130 - 149%
>=150%
Feb 04, 2014
* Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year
Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/Science contact: [email protected] 503 414 3047
The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the currentsnow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
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Pueblo
Durango
Alamosa
Gunnison
Leadville
Fort Collins
Grand Junction
Colorado Springs
Steamboat Springs
UPPER ARKANSAS
SOUTH PLATTE
GUNNISON
WHITE-YAMPA
REPUBLICAN
COLORADO HEADWATERS
RIO GRANDE HEADWATERS
UPPER SAN JUAN UPPER CIMARRON
UPPER COLORADO-DOLORES
NORTH PLATTE
SMOKY HILL
LOWER SAN JUAN
UPPER GREEN
Denver
54
97
86
80
80
90
92
57
96 9787
88
58
98
83
68
88
95
54
70
81
88
76
8089
59
111
105
103
127
126
131
108
105
114
120
107104
109
112 149
109
132
107
139
135
122
109
127
104
125
105
131
110
107
133
107
142
107
113
137
119
111
111
131
129
130
120
145
123
129
141
108
121
112
115
116
136
101
153
163
141
131
126
110
112
102
175
138
152
101 131
128
156113
76
25
ColoradoSNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
% of Normal
70
0 20 40 60 80 10010Miles
Prepared by theUSDA/NRCS National Water and Climate CenterPortland, Oregonhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/
Provisional Data Subject to Revision
Current SWE % of 1981-2010Median
> 160%
140-160%
120-139%
100-119%
80-99%
60-79%
40-59%
1-39%
0%
Unavailable*
Feb 04, 2014
* Data unavailable at time of posting or unavailable long-term normal.
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This year
Average
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2010-2011
Average
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2010-2011
2013-2014
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Long range forecasts stink! !
We cannot reliably predict snow accumulations beyond about two weeks. Seasonal outlooks are even worse.
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Actual Storm Track
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16 Day Forecast
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15 Day Forecast
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14 Day Forecast
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13 Day Forecast
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12 Day Forecast
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11 Day Forecast
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10 Day Forecast
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9 Day Forecast
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8 Day Forecast
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7 Day Forecast
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6 Day Forecast
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5 Day Forecast
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4 Day Forecast
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3 Day Forecast
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2 Day Forecast
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1 Day Forecast
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Actual Storm Track
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Weather happens when moist air
gets high
1 2 3
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Where’s the moisture?
Lots of moisture(ocean source)
Less moisture (land source)
OK moisture (ocean + plants)
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Orographics get air high
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Mountains = Precipitation
Indian Peaks / RMNP
Sangre deChristo
Park Range
Flattops
Grand Mesa
Elk Mtns
East San Juans
N&S San Juans
Sawatch
Gore
Ten Mile & Mosquito
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Favorable wind directions
Wolf Creek
Silverton
Telluride
Powderhorn Crested Butte
AspenVail
Summit Co.
SteamboatRMNP
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Vail: Northwest winds
BeaverCreek
Vail
Gore Range
VailPass
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Beaver Creek: West winds
Vail
Gore Range
VailPass
BeaverCreek
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Breckenridge: NW to N winds
Gore Range
VailPass
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Telluride: West & WNW winds
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http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm
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Moi
stur
e in
the
air
Temperature >> colder
10F 0F
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The best snow requires... • Lots of moisture
• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F
• Best wind for Beaver Creek = West Vail = Northwest
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Wind directions? Complicated. What about radar? !
Nope. There’s a problem...
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Radar
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Jamming the Radar
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Overshooting the Snow
0.5 deg
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
Denver Airport
PuebloGrand Mesa
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
RMNP
Steamboat
Telluride
Wolf Creek
Aspen
BC / Vail
Summit Co.
Crested Butte
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
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4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
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4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
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4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
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Model Accuracy at 6-day forecastEuropean = British = Canadian = American =
0.845 0.825 0.820 0.807
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How to plan
7-10 days 4-5 days 2-3 days
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Apps!
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January 30-31: Explained
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Weather happens when moist air
gets high
1 2 3
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Weather happens when moist air
gets high
1 2 3
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WEATHER 101: Five ways to get high
D is for dynamic.
http://www.clker.com/cliparts/e/4/9/a/12401693261710228990Kliponius_Mountain_in_a_Cartoon_Style.svg.med.png
This is complicated - it’s all physics.
30,000ft300mb
Jet Stream(river of fast air)
Induces upward motion by “pulling” surface air upward into the void left by the fast-moving air above. Similar to opening a car window while moving and having a piece of paper “sucked” out.
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WEATHER 101: Five ways to get high
U is for undercut.
http://www.clker.com/cliparts/e/4/9/a/12401693261710228990Kliponius_Mountain_in_a_Cartoon_Style.svg.med.png
Cold Air Warm Air
Cold front moving left-to-right
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http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm
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http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm
Top
18,000ftMtn
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What’s the forecast?
To the internet!