Forecasting Technological Change (5)

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Forecasting Technological ChangeForecasting Technological Change

Session 5: ClosingSession 5: ClosingPaul A. Schumann, Jr.Paul A. Schumann, Jr.

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

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SessionsSessions

• IntroductionIntroduction

• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques

• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques

• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• ClosingClosing

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5. Closing5. Closing

• The Future of Technology Forecasting The Future of Technology Forecasting

• Developing a Technology ForecastDeveloping a Technology Forecast– ProcessProcess– Internal ConsiderationsInternal Considerations– External ConsiderationsExternal Considerations– GuidelinesGuidelines

• ConclusionsConclusions

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HistoryHistory

• Driven by military and national science policy Driven by military and national science policy needs (> 50 years old)needs (> 50 years old)

• 1940’s - 1970’s: Both quantitative and 1940’s - 1970’s: Both quantitative and qualitative methods were developed and qualitative methods were developed and refinedrefined

• 1970’s - 1990’s: Decline in general acceptance 1970’s - 1990’s: Decline in general acceptance of technology forecasting primarily due to of technology forecasting primarily due to changing social and institutional perceptions changing social and institutional perceptions and needsand needs

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History (cont.)History (cont.)

• 1990’s - 2000’s: Resurgence in new forms, 1990’s - 2000’s: Resurgence in new forms, integrated in new ways to meet specific integrated in new ways to meet specific needsneeds– Technology assessmentTechnology assessment– National technology foresightNational technology foresight– RoadmappingRoadmapping– Competitive technological intelligenceCompetitive technological intelligence

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Importance of Forecasting Technological Importance of Forecasting Technological ChangeChange

• “Our society is completely reliant on technology—to drive the economy, to maintain and improve standards of living, and to protect Earth against the pressures of population and urban living. Nations are irretrievably enmeshed in a global economy fueled by innovation and competition. Therefore technology is an increasingly important and challenging target for

analyses to aid decision-makers.” Source: Coates, et al

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Future of Technology ForesightFuture of Technology Foresight

• Technological innovation rather than Technological innovation rather than inventioninvention

• Economic, not military or political competitionEconomic, not military or political competition• More dependence on scienceMore dependence on science• Sociopolitical conditions favor re-emergence Sociopolitical conditions favor re-emergence

of both technology forecasting and of both technology forecasting and technology assessmenttechnology assessment

• Technology forecasting toolkit is expandingTechnology forecasting toolkit is expandingSource: Coates, et al

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Future (cont.)Future (cont.)

• Technology forecasting is becoming much Technology forecasting is becoming much more integrated with company functions and more integrated with company functions and policy developmentpolicy development

• Customers for and practitioners of technology Customers for and practitioners of technology forecasting are becoming more diverseforecasting are becoming more diverse

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Technological InnovationTechnological Innovation

• Technological innovation has two Technological innovation has two components - invention and market components - invention and market exploitationexploitation– It is the result of the confluence of a new It is the result of the confluence of a new

technical idea with a market opportunitytechnical idea with a market opportunity

• Traditional technology forecasting Traditional technology forecasting focused on technical ideafocused on technical idea

• Focus now is on bothFocus now is on both

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New MethodsNew Methods

• Scenario managementScenario management• TRIZTRIZ• Multiple perspectivesMultiple perspectives• Co-evolutionCo-evolution• ScientometricsScientometrics• Bibliometric analysis & Bibliometric analysis &

data miningdata mining• Complexity scienceComplexity science• Crisis managementCrisis management

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• Elaboration & Elaboration & improvement of scenariosimprovement of scenarios

• Computerized process to Computerized process to generate conflict free generate conflict free scenariosscenarios

• Well suited for Well suited for entrepreneurial business entrepreneurial business decisionsdecisions

• Decision field assessment Decision field assessment (60 to 150 influence (60 to 150 influence factors)factors)

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• Laws of technological Laws of technological system evolution deduced system evolution deduced from analysis of hundreds from analysis of hundreds of patentsof patents

• Systematic exploration of Systematic exploration of technologiestechnologies

• Identification of many Identification of many paths of technological paths of technological evolutionevolution

• Similar to morphological Similar to morphological analysisanalysis

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• Based on political science Based on political science and systems analysisand systems analysis

• Incorporates multiple Incorporates multiple perspectives - technical, perspectives - technical, organizational, personalorganizational, personal

• Each perspective uses Each perspective uses distinct paradigms and distinct paradigms and provides insights not provides insights not available with the othersavailable with the others

• Synthesis provides insightSynthesis provides insight

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• Based on co-evolution Based on co-evolution of technology & of technology & continually adaptive continually adaptive private/public private/public organizational networksorganizational networks

• As technology evolves As technology evolves so do the organizational so do the organizational arrangements to use it arrangements to use it & manage it& manage it

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• Studies of the structure Studies of the structure and evolution of scienceand evolution of science

• Challenge is to forecast Challenge is to forecast when when specific when when specific areas of science can be areas of science can be exploited commerciallyexploited commercially

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• Many new tools Many new tools (software)(software)– BibliometricsBibliometrics– Text miningText mining– Knowledge DiscoveryKnowledge Discovery

• Has potential for Has potential for identification of possible identification of possible new innovations and new innovations and advancement in scienceadvancement in science

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• Application to analysis Application to analysis and simulation of and simulation of complex sociotechnical complex sociotechnical systemssystems

• Nonlinear adaptive Nonlinear adaptive systemssystems– StableStable– Oscillating stablyOscillating stably– Chaotic with predictable Chaotic with predictable

boundariesboundaries– Diverging unstablyDiverging unstably

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• Multidisciplinary work Multidisciplinary work on decision makingon decision making

• Inherent limitations to Inherent limitations to forecastingforecasting

• Regions of uncertainty Regions of uncertainty seem to be growingseem to be growing

• Guidance through Guidance through turbulenceturbulence

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Who Should Forecast?Who Should Forecast?

• “Everyone engaging in the technology delivery system ought to have a sense of what constitutes valid technology foresight and appreciate what it can do for them. Every scientist working toward eventual innovation, each design engineer, production manager, product developer, technology marketing professional, and so forth should get informed on where the related technologies are likely to be heading. This information will pay off in avoiding dead-end initiatives and deadly surprises, and seizing technological opportunities in a

competitive marketplace.” Source: Coates, et al

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• The Future of Technology ForecastingThe Future of Technology Forecasting



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TF ProcessTF Process

Inputs

Techniques

Output

Decision/Question

QualitativeQuantitativeTimeProbability

Planning Implementation

AssumptionsDataInsightJudgement

ProjectiveNormative

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Types of ForecastsTypes of Forecasts

Future 1

Future 2

Today

Normative

Projective

What are possible futures?Can we find a path to get to those futures?

What is the trend?What may affect the trend?What are the potential futures?

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ApplicationsApplications

• Projections of rates of technology Projections of rates of technology substitutionsubstitution

• R&D managementR&D management

• Value of new technologyValue of new technology

• Identifications of opportunities & threatsIdentifications of opportunities & threats

• Identification of emerging technologiesIdentification of emerging technologies

• Competitive technological intelligenceCompetitive technological intelligence

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Applications (cont.)Applications (cont.)

• Strategic market analysisStrategic market analysis

• Technology roadmappingTechnology roadmapping

• Innovation managementInnovation management

• Technology assessmentTechnology assessment

• Technology foresightTechnology foresight

• Science & technology policyScience & technology policy

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OutputOutput

• The technology being forecast The technology being forecast (qualitative)(qualitative)

• The characteristics of the technology The characteristics of the technology (quantitative)(quantitative)

• Timing of the forecastTiming of the forecast

• Probability of the forecastProbability of the forecast

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InputInput

• AssumptionsAssumptions

• InsightInsight

• DataData

• JudgementJudgement

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Internal ConsiderationsInternal Considerations

• What question needs to answered, or what decision What question needs to answered, or what decision needs to be made?needs to be made?

• What is the time frame?What is the time frame?• How much time?How much time?• One time or continuous?One time or continuous?• Budget?Budget?• Internal data or expertise?Internal data or expertise?• Expectations?Expectations?• Organizational culture?Organizational culture?

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External ConsiderationsExternal Considerations

• Stage of technology developmentStage of technology development

• Availability of dataAvailability of data

• Availability and accessibility of expertsAvailability and accessibility of experts

• Similarity to other technologySimilarity to other technology

• ComplexityComplexity

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A MarketA Market

CustomersCustomers

TechnologyTechnologyCompetitionCompetition

DemographicDemographic

SociopoliticalSociopolitical

ScientificScientific

EconomicEconomic

EmbeddedEmbeddedSupportiveSupportiveEnablingEnabling

PresentPresentPotentialPotentialPossiblePossible

DirectDirectIndirectIndirectStructuralStructural

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Four Causes of RealityFour Causes of Reality

• MaterialMaterial

• FormalFormal

• ProductiveProductive

• FinalFinal

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Surveillance Surveillance techniquestechniques– ScanningScanning– MonitoringMonitoring– TrackingTracking

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Trend analysisTrend analysis– AnalogyAnalogy– Precursor Precursor

developmentsdevelopments– Trend extrapolationTrend extrapolation– Limit curveLimit curve– Substitution analysisSubstitution analysis– Multiple substitution Multiple substitution

analysisanalysis

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Expert opinion Expert opinion techniquestechniques– InterviewsInterviews– SurveysSurveys– GroupsGroups

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Integrative techniquesIntegrative techniques– ScenariosScenarios– SWOTSWOT– Opportunity/Threat Opportunity/Threat

analysisanalysis– Cross impact analysisCross impact analysis– Innovation mapInnovation map– Mathematical modelsMathematical models– Road MapRoad Map

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GuidelinesGuidelines

• Build the complete realityBuild the complete reality• Provide actionable resultsProvide actionable results• Employ a mix of normative and projective Employ a mix of normative and projective

techniquestechniques• Balance rational and intuitive approachesBalance rational and intuitive approaches• Integrate the perspectives of personality types Integrate the perspectives of personality types • Be cognizant of boundaries and holesBe cognizant of boundaries and holes• Create a hologram not a mosaicCreate a hologram not a mosaic

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Temperaments & Views of the FutureTemperaments & Views of the Future

GuardiansGuardiansFatalisticFatalistic

StoicStoicPessimisticPessimistic

RationalsRationalsSolipsisticSolipsistic

PragmaticPragmaticSkepticalSkeptical

IdealistsIdealistsMysticalMystical

MeaningMeaningCredulousCredulous

ArtisansArtisansCynicalCynical

HedonisticHedonisticOptimisticOptimistic

Source: Keirsey (www.keirsey.com)

PastPresentFuture

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• Developing a Technology ForecastDeveloping a Technology Forecast– Internal ConsiderationsInternal Considerations– External ConsiderationsExternal Considerations– GuidelinesGuidelines


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ConclusionsConclusions

• Technology is increasingly intertwined Technology is increasingly intertwined with societal, business and economic with societal, business and economic progressprogress

• The ability to have technological The ability to have technological foresight is valuableforesight is valuable

• The methodologies of technology The methodologies of technology forecasting have a long history of forecasting have a long history of success and failuressuccess and failures

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Conclusions (cont.)Conclusions (cont.)

• More integrative approaches, More integrative approaches, development of novel methods and development of novel methods and increased awareness of the increased awareness of the complexities of technology forecasting complexities of technology forecasting are leading to a resurgence and are leading to a resurgence and reintegration of technology forecasting reintegration of technology forecasting into business and governmentinto business and government

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ReferencesReferences

• Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, ed., The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2002

• Innovate!, Paul Schumann, Donna Prestwood, Alvin Tong and John Vanston, McGraw-Hill, 1994

• Forecasting and Management of Technology, Alan Porter, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini and Jerry Banks, Wiley Series in Engineering and Technology Management, 1991

• A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods, Steven Millet & Edward Honton, Battelle Press, 1991

• Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management, John Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc., 1987

• Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, Joseph Martino, North-Holland, 1983

• Practical Technology Forecasting, James Bright, Technology Futures, 1978

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 42

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

• PO Box 161475PO Box 161475

• Austin, TX 78716Austin, TX 78716

• (512) 632-6586(512) 632-6586

• [email protected]@glocalvantage.com

• www.glocalvantage.com

• http://incollaboration.com

• Twitter: innovant2003Twitter: innovant2003

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

• Futurist and innovation consultantFuturist and innovation consultant• Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic

intelligence systemsintelligence systems• Web 2.0 tools & technologiesWeb 2.0 tools & technologies• Application of web 2.0 to democratic processesApplication of web 2.0 to democratic processes• Broad perspectives on the futureBroad perspectives on the future• ServicesServices

– Strategic market research & technology forecastingStrategic market research & technology forecasting– Intelligence systems consultingIntelligence systems consulting– Seminars, webinars & presentationsSeminars, webinars & presentations

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 43

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Forecasting Technological Change (5)

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