Forecasting process: Severe Weather

Early warning

Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information3. BELIEVES the information4. Personalizes the risk5. Make correct decisions6. Respond in a timely manner

Early warning

Effective early warning should be:• Short, concise, understandable and actionable

• What, where, when, why, how to respond

Should be presented in several different formats – text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.

Process

Identifying Severe Weather

UKMO Model

5-7 Day Lead time

NOAA Model

5-7 Day Lead time

Unified Model

24 Hour fine scale lead time

Web-based sources: QuickScat

5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory

Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

>100mm in 24hour

24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather

Process: Current

Issuing and disseminating Warning

Desktop

Warning

Distribution list

Issuing of Warning

Posted on the Internet

Television

Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many

others

Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers

Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service

Telephone: Direct to Forecaster

Process: Current

Monitoring and Amending warnings

Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

Extra Tropical

Cyclone - Gamede

Old Tropical Cyclone -

Favio

Cold Front

Very Cold Air

Mass

Satellite images

Thunderstorm

Thunderstorm

Fog-Aviation Danger

Thunderstorm

Fog-Aviation Danger

High Resolution

Super impose RADAR and Lightning Detection

LightningDetection

strikes

Cape TownWeatherRADAR

De AarWeatherRADAR

Radar

Lightning detection

Severe Bottom storm

High likelihood of large hail

Analysis of Routine observations

Surface

Upper air

Feedback from Disaster Managers and affected people

Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed

Other Tools

Webcams

Independent Weather stations

Process: Current

After Event

Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

Any follow-up weather

Rescue mission conditions

Post-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects

New Severe Weather Alert System

New Severe Weather Alert System

New Severe Weather Alert System

New Severe Weather Alert System

Way Forward:1. Re-define warning

criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures.

2. Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness,

3. Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warnings

4. Keep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology research

South African Flash Flood Guidance System

Delineation of River Basins

Will Be Discussed Next

Thank You For Your Time

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Mountaineers_in_High_Tatry_mountains_winter.jpg

www.capetown.dj/people/people.html

http://www.jokesy.com/images/old-lady-senior-citizens-jokes1.jpg

http://happytrailsboardingkennel.com/sitebuilder/images/sick_puppy-600x319.jpg

http://weathersavvy.com/windysnow_OPT.jpg

http://ed101.bu.edu/StudentDoc/Archives/ED101fa06/mattwall/Weather%20Pictures/thunderstorm.jpg

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2271578

http://www.iopara.ca/research.html