Forecasting Elements for an Acre of Crops (Wheat, Barley and Rice) In Suleimanyah Governorate from...

7/30/2019 Forecasting Elements for an Acre of Crops (Wheat, Barley and Rice) In Suleimanyah Governorate from 2002 to 20

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Observation

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Multiple Regression OLS

Minitab 11 for Windows.

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= XXSVar


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Standard Error of Estimation

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kn

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)ANOVA Table(

S.O.V.

D.F.

S.S

M.S.

FP-Value

Model26.53808E103.26904E1021.910.0000

Residual192.83536E101.4923E9

Total21

Parameter

Estimation

Durbin Watson

R-Square

R-Square(adjusted for d.f)

Constant-29592.21.9307969.751166.567Rain22.2337

Area0.252426

Y =-29592.2 + 22.2337*Area + 0.252426 * Rain

t = (-0.77391) (0.499192) (6.57041)


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IDPeriodForecasting value11400362142106314417741462475148318615038871524598154529

156600MAD=

-

-

)(

)(

)(

)(

- - - - - - - - - - -


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][/)(

- - - - - - - - - -

-

)ANOVA Table(

S.O.V.

D.F.

S.S

M.S.

F

P-Value

Model21.97777E109.88885E945.930.0000Residual194.09076E92.15303E8

Total21

Parameter

Estimation

Durbin Watson

R-Square

R-Square

(adjusted for d.f)

Constant-17842.11.205982.861281.0571Rain0.248162

Area8.65827

Y =-17842.1 + 0.248162*Area + 8.65827 * Rain

t= (-1.03361) (8.71288) (0.45508)


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IDPeriodForecasting value159693.8261919.9364146.1466372.3568598.5670824.7773050.9875277.177503.3

MAD=

-

.

)(

)(

)(

)(

- - - - - - - -


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][/)(

- - - - - - - - - -

- - - -

)ANOVA Table(

S.O.V.

D.F.

S.S

M.S.

F

P-Value

Model25.61894E82.80947E8597.050.000

Residual198.94063E6470559.0Total21

Parameter

Estimation

Durbin Watson

R-Square

R-Square

(adjusted for d.f)

Constant414.7821.7313598.433898.2689Rain0.491224

Area0.236781

:Y = 414.782 + 0.491224*Area 0.236781 * Rain


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t = (0.691206) (33.0908) (-0.286264)

.

IDPeriodForecasting value16849.8227105.9437362.064

7618.18

57874.3168130.4378386.5588642.678898.79

MAD=

-

.

.)Y(

)TF,R2()D.W.(Area, Rain

.

)TF,R2()R2()69.75%()Y(

)Area, Rain(


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][/)(

)F( )21.91(

)3.52()

5%(

.)D.W.(

)et-1,et(

:

Y =-29592.2+22.2337*Rain + 0.252426 * Area

.

.

. )Y( )TF,R2()R2(

)%()Y(

)Area, Rain()F(

)( )( )%(

.


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...][

)D.W.(

)et-1,et(

:Y =-17842.1+0.248162*Rain + 8.65827 * Area

.

-)(-

.

.)Y( )TF,R2( )R2(

)%()Y(

)Area, Rain(%)()F()(

)( )%(

. )D.W.()(

)et-1,et(


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:Y =414.782+0.491224*Area 0.236781 * Rain

A

)(

.

-

. " " ). (.

."".

." " .

.")-"(

.

-1. Bernard, O., "Statistics in Research",2nd.,The lowa State university press, 1963.

2. Drapper Smith, "Applied Regression Analysis "John Wiley andf Sons, 1981.


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Forecasting Elements for an Acre of Crops (Wheat, Barley and Rice) In

Suleimanyah Governorate from 2002 to 2010

ABSTRCACTWith increasing the planted area with crops and availability of enough amounts of rains, the

crops production might raise, as there is a proportional relation between size of production and

the affected factors of growth (the planted area and the amount of rains).The significant point in this research is the forecast about the amount of productions for the

period of 2005-2010 to find out the amounts of productions in the upcoming years, recognize

the shortages in the productions along with continuous increasing in population size and

identify the size of the gap between productions amounts and (Supply and Demand) on thosecorps.

The aim is to take necessary procedures by the Governmental Institutions to decrease the

gap between the Supply and Demand on those corps inside the country.Moreover, working onincreasing those productions for populations. This is a better solution than importing them fromoutside, as this will lead to find job opportunity and use of the agricultural land on the other

hand. This will be done through increasing agricultural land and using developed technology

method.

Forecasting Elements for an Acre of Crops (Wheat, Barley and Rice) In Suleimanyah Governorate from...

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