Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA)...

24
Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (Narragansett, RI) Dynamic Positioning Conference November 15 - 16, 2005 Sensors II

TAGS:

Transcript of Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA)...

Page 1: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. AndersonHorizon Marine, Inc.

(Marion, MA)

Sergei FrolovAccurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc.

(Narragansett, RI)

Dynamic Positioning Conference

November 15 - 16, 2005

Sensors II

Page 2: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

Waiting On Currents….W O C When will it go away?

When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?

?

?

?

How long will it shut us down?

Page 3: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

LOOP CURRENT/EDDY MODEL FORECAST

Frontal boundary

Cyclone

Center

Page 4: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS

INITIALIZATIONCOMPONENT

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE

PHYSICAL PRINCIPLESNOWCAST

PREDICTIONCOMPONENT

FORECAST

Page 5: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

MODEL

FORECAST

NOWCAST

AUTOMATED DATA

ASSIMILATION

Page 6: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS 15 SEPTEMBER 2004

Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR

EDDY WATCH GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004

MC

GC

WR

Page 7: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM

INITIAL CONDITIONS(NOWCAST)

FORECAST

INTELLIGENT DATA

ANALYSIS

INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE

MODEL

ALL OBSERVATIONAL

DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME

Page 8: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

• Drifting buoys

• Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs)

• Ocean current surveys

• Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs)

• SST and ocean color

• Rig and pilot observations

• Altimetry

Page 9: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS

EXPERIENCE

Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea

• Eddy Watch – GOM (1705)• Eddy Watch – Trinidad (69)• Hurricane• Oil Spill• Search & Rescue• Ring & Eddy Surveys• Vessel Tracking• Instrument Recovery• Plankton Studies, etc.

Page 10: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

AIR-DEPLOYED EXPENDABLE BATHYTHERMOGRAPH (AXBT)

Temperature

Page 11: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

OCEAN CURRENT SURVEYS

RIG-MOUNTED ADCPs – EDDYNET

SATELLITE IMAGERY

EDDY ULYSSES

LOOPCURRENT

Page 12: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

EDDY WATCH GOM CHART

EDDYULYSSES

LOOPCURRENT

TITANICEDDY

WE

CE

CE

GULF of MEXICO09 September 2004

EDDY WATCH REPORT

Page 13: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART

EDDYULYSSES

LC

CE

CE

GULF of MEXICO09 September 2004

EDDY WATCH REPORT

Page 14: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES

• Eddy size

• Eddy shape

• Rotation and migration

• Vertical density structure

• Swirl speed

• Surrounding cyclonic eddies

Page 15: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

INITIALIZATION COMPONENT

• Analysis of observational data

• Identification of significant eddy features

• Initialization component

• Formulation of a “nowcast” • Model forecast

Page 16: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

MODEL FORECAST

NOWCASTAUTOMATED

DATA ASSIMILATION

COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM…

INITIAL CONDITIONS(NOWCAST)

FORECAST

INTELLIGENT DATA

ANALYSIS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE

MODEL

….WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM

ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN

REAL TIME

Page 17: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

09 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART09 SEPTEMBER 2004 NOWCAST

Page 18: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

15 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART15 SEPTEMBER 2004 FORECAST

Page 19: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

Thunder Horse

THUNDER HORSE FORECAST

Page 20: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

BP THUNDER HORSE – ADCP vs EDDY FORECAST

Page 21: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

LOOP CURRENT FORECAST

Page 22: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

3-D MODEL OF EDDY ULYSSES

Page 23: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

SUMMARY

• New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system now available

• Skill in predicting currents out 1 month

• Advance knowledge of currents answers questions

Page 24: Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

Forecasting & Replenishment. Forecasting Forecasting & Replenishment Historical Usage Forecasting.

Forecasting & Replenishment. Forecasting Forecasting & Replenishment Historical Usage Forecasting.

Introduction to Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting ... · PDF fileIntroduction to Sales Forecasting ... Sales Forecasting ... budgeting and risk management. Accurate sales forecasting

Introduction to Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting ... · PDF fileIntroduction to Sales Forecasting ... Sales Forecasting ... budgeting and risk management. Accurate sales forecasting

Valeri P. Frolov, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton · Valeri P. Frolov, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton International Conference on Geometry, Integrability and Quantization, Varna, June 3 -

Valeri P. Frolov, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton · Valeri P. Frolov, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton International Conference on Geometry, Integrability and Quantization, Varna, June 3 -

MGT3303 Michel Leseure Forecasting –Introduction to forecasting –Do you need a forecasting system? –Forecasting models –Qualitative judgments in forecasting.

MGT3303 Michel Leseure Forecasting –Introduction to forecasting –Do you need a forecasting system? –Forecasting models –Qualitative judgments in forecasting.

Effect of nonhydrostatic stresses on solid-fluid ...physics.gmu.edu/~ymishin/resources/Frolov-2010d.pdf · T. Frolov* and Y. Mishin† Department of Physics and Astronomy, George

Effect of nonhydrostatic stresses on solid-fluid ...physics.gmu.edu/~ymishin/resources/Frolov-2010d.pdf · T. Frolov* and Y. Mishin† Department of Physics and Astronomy, George

Gravitational Waves (Working group 6) resonant mass detectors: Visco current generation terrestrial interferometers: Frolov, Brady next generation terrestrial.

Gravitational Waves (Working group 6) resonant mass detectors: Visco current generation terrestrial interferometers: Frolov, Brady next generation terrestrial.

Forecasting Methods Chapter 9 Forecasting How Important Is Forecasting?How Important Is Forecasting? Is Forecasting Only Financial?Is Forecasting Only.

Forecasting Methods Chapter 9 Forecasting How Important Is Forecasting?How Important Is Forecasting? Is Forecasting Only Financial?Is Forecasting Only.

HFT 3431 Chapter 9 Forecasting Methods Forecasting How Important Is Forecasting?How Important Is Forecasting? Is Forecasting Only Financial?Is Forecasting.

HFT 3431 Chapter 9 Forecasting Methods Forecasting How Important Is Forecasting?How Important Is Forecasting? Is Forecasting Only Financial?Is Forecasting.

Crosswords by Dmitry Frolov

Crosswords by Dmitry Frolov

Frolov Manual

Frolov Manual

G1100445-v3 Integration Planning April 25, 2011 Valera Frolov, Daniel Sigg, Peter Fritschel NSF Review, LLO.

G1100445-v3 Integration Planning April 25, 2011 Valera Frolov, Daniel Sigg, Peter Fritschel NSF Review, LLO.

Baptista, Y. Zhang, G. Law, J. Needoba, N. Hyde, S. Frolov, P. Turner, M. Wilkin, C. Seaton,

Baptista, Y. Zhang, G. Law, J. Needoba, N. Hyde, S. Frolov, P. Turner, M. Wilkin, C. Seaton,

Benjamin VanderSloot*, Sergey Frolov, Jack Wampler, Sze Chuen … · 2020. 8. 12. · Sergey Frolov: University of Colorado Boulder, E-mail: sergey.frolov@colorado.edu Jack Wampler:

Benjamin VanderSloot*, Sergey Frolov, Jack Wampler, Sze Chuen … · 2020. 8. 12. · Sergey Frolov: University of Colorado Boulder, E-mail: [email protected] Jack Wampler:

Probabilistic Energy Forecasting - KIT - ITI … 25.01.17 Institute forApplied Computer Science Agenda Forecasting challenges Renewable energy forecasting Electricity price forecasting

Probabilistic Energy Forecasting - KIT - ITI … 25.01.17 Institute forApplied Computer Science Agenda Forecasting challenges Renewable energy forecasting Electricity price forecasting

Computers and Weather forecasting WeatherWeather forecasting.

Computers and Weather forecasting WeatherWeather forecasting.

Andrey Frolov Russian Army SPb 25-04-2014

Andrey Frolov Russian Army SPb 25-04-2014

Novikov Frolov Black Holes Physic

Novikov Frolov Black Holes Physic

Module MA1132 (Frolov), Advanced Calculus Homework Sheet 7frolovs/AdvCalculus/PS7_sol.pdf · Module MA1132 (Frolov), Advanced Calculus Homework Sheet 7 Each set of homework questions

Module MA1132 (Frolov), Advanced Calculus Homework Sheet 7frolovs/AdvCalculus/PS7_sol.pdf · Module MA1132 (Frolov), Advanced Calculus Homework Sheet 7 Each set of homework questions

Computer Vision...Computer Vision From traditional approaches to deep neural networks Stanislav Frolov München, 27.02.2018

Computer Vision...Computer Vision From traditional approaches to deep neural networks Stanislav Frolov München, 27.02.2018

SAS Visual Forecasting 8.4: Forecasting Procedures

SAS Visual Forecasting 8.4: Forecasting Procedures