FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist &...
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Transcript of FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist &...
FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURESATIC Tourism Conference
By Dr Leo Jago
Chief Economist & GM
29 May 2014
Presentation Overview
Tourism – the state of play
Tourism – forecasts
Megatrends (CSIRO Futures)
Summary of key tourism drivers
Global Tourism Statistics (UNWTO)
International tourism arrivals in 2013 : 1.1 billion• Annual growth of 4% expected to continue• Predicted arrivals for 2030 of 1.8 billion
Tourism export earnings in 2012 : USD 1.3 trillion
Accounted for 9% global GDP in 2012
Generated 9% of total employment in 2012
Tourism’s Economic Significance (2012-13)
Australia South Australia
Direct tourism GDP $24.2 billion(2.8% of total GDP)
$2.2 billion(2.3% of total GDP)
Tourism exports $27 billion(8.9% of total exports)
$1.1 billion(4% of total exports)
Direct employment 543,600 jobs(4.7% of total employment)
31,000 jobs(3.8% of total employment)
Businesses 280,083
Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013)
Visitors (millions)
Nights (millions)
Spend (billions)
International 5.9 216.7 $28.9
Domestic Overnight 75.8 282.7 $51.5
Domestic Day Trip 164.3 - $18.3
Total $98.7
Inbound Versus Outbound Visitors
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Inbound visitor ar-rivalsOutbound departures
Inb
ou
nd
an
d o
utb
ou
nd
to
uri
sm
v
isit
ors
('0
00
)
South Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013)
Visitors (millions)
Nights (millions)
Spend (billions)
International 0.4 10.5 0.7*
Domestic Overnight 5.2 19.5 $3.2
Domestic Day Trip 11.0 - $1.2
Total $5.1*
* Excludes pre-paid expenses
Visitor Nights in South Australia
2009 2010 2011 2012 20136,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Vis
ito
r n
igh
ts (
'00
0)
INTERNATIONAL
INTRASTATE
INTERSTATE
Visitor Spend in South Australia
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Vis
ito
r s
pe
nd
($
m)
INTERNATIONAL
DOMESTIC
O'NIGHT
DOMESTIC DAY
International Arrivals to Australia in 2013
New ZealandChina
UKUSA
SingaporeJapan
MalaysiaKorea
Hong KongGermany
IndiaIndonesia
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Visitors ('000)
Source of International Visitors to South Australia
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Vis
ito
r n
um
be
rs
(‘0
00
)
CHINA
USAGERMANY
UK
NZ
Source of International Visitors
Nationality South Australia%
Australia%
United Kingdom 17.2* 10.5New Zealand 10.5 18.4*USA 8.6 8.0Germany 7.8* 2.8China 7.2 11.3*Malaysia 4.2 4.2France 4.1* 1.8Canada 3.5 2.1Italy 3.1 1.1
International Visitor Activities
Visit wineries
Visit history / heritage buildings, sites or monuments
Visit museums or art galleries
Pubs, clubs, discos etc
Visit national parks / State parks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
11.5
21.6
27.2
33.3
28.9
35.1
36.4
44.1
41.0
33.0
37.0
39.5
45.0
45.6
49.0
49.6
56.3
61.2
South AustraliaAustralia
International Visitor Dispersal
Nationality Visitors%
Nights%
China 9 6
Other Asia 17 13
North America 36 25
Europe 48 25
Total 27 18
Nights outside capital cities, GC & TNQYE December 2013
Source of Interstate Visitors to South Australia
Origin %
Victoria 42.6
NSW 26.6
Queensland 13.2
Western Australia 8.3
Northern Territory 5.0
ACT 2.2
Tasmania 1.9
Purpose of Visiting South Australia (All Visitors)
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Vis
ito
r n
um
be
rs (
'00
0)
BUSINESSOTHER
HOLIDAY
VFR
Increasing Visitors to South Australia from UK, US & Europe
53% could name a location in SA unprompted• Adelaide 49%• Kangaroo Island 10%• Barossa 5%
Respondents believed SA:• Has unique attractions• Just seems too far away• Is vast and empty compared to other places in
Australia
Main Reason for not Selecting South Australia in Planning the Trip
Not enough time in trip to include
Too expensive
Other destinations more appealing
Plan to visit in the future
China Forecast to Remain Australia’s Top Expenditure Market
New Zea-land
China United Kingdom
United States
Singapore0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6Arrivals (million)
2013
Forecast 2022-23
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0Expenditure ($billion)
2013Forecast 2022-23
Key Influences on Chinese Visitor Satisfaction
Attractions, especially nature based
Value for money
Good shopping
Good quality food, Western and Chinese
Chinese language servicesSource: Tourism Research Australia’s: Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Research January 2014
South Australia has what China Wants
World class beauty and natural environments
A safe and secure destination
Good food, wine, local cuisine and produce
Friendly and open citizens, hospitality
Native or cultural heritage
Kangaroo Island, whale/dolphin watching
Source: Tourism Australia’s: Understanding the Chinese Consumer June 2013
Mega-trends Impacting Tourism Over Next 20 Years(Prepared by CSIRO Futures for Queensland)
1. The Orient Express
The generation of wealth is moving east
Over 1 billion people in Asia will transition out of poverty into the middle income bracket in coming decades
China will dominate this trend• Chinese tourists prefer historical & cultural sites rather
than just natural scenery• Like to incorporate visits to museum, art shows or
watch sport during holiday
Countries throughout Asia are investing heavily in tourism so there is much competition
1. The Orient Express
2. A Natural Advantage
Impact of climate change
Australia has world class natural assets
Nature is still Australia’s drawcard with tourists
Increased urbanisation is likely to increase the desire for nature
3. Great Expectations
Moving upwards through Maslow’s Hierarchy
As incomes rise, people move from consuming materials to consuming experiences
An increasing desire for authentic experiences
The tourist doesn’t want to be a tourist
VFR is important especially for domestic tourism & forecast to rise
4. Bolts From The Blue
Tourism is highly sensitive to extreme events
Climate change brings more extreme weather events
Increased human mobility is elevating the risk of infectious diseases
4. Bolts From The Blue
Increased uncertainty increases the popularity of domestic holidays
Australia is a relatively safe tourist destination
Australia’s safety ranked more highly by past visitors
5. Digital Whispers
Internet usage continues to grow
Increased internet usage on smartphones
IT will continue to change how tourists access and use information
The changing role of the travel agent
Greater information flows between travellers
The popularity of user-generated content in travel
More bookings are made online
Virtual experiences are not replacing actual experiences yet
A virtual experience may increase the intention to visit
Despite IT, there is the expectation for face-to-face interaction
For some there is too much IT and people want to disconnect
5. Digital Whispers
6. On The Move
Trade leads to travel
Global trade to increase by nearly 75% by 2025
Strong trading ties with Asia
Growth in multi-purpose trips
Education exports (22% of students in 2009)
Rise of medical tourism
Aviation access is critical
Air ticket prices also important
The world’s citizens are becoming more mobile
High speed rail more popular
Cruise ships on the rise
6. On The Move
7. The Lucky Country
Australia rode the GFC better than most
Overseas holidays getting cheaper
Outbound tourism for Australians is on the rise
Australian tourism seen to be high cost globally
Lack of investment in domestic tourism product could hold back local potential
Ageing population means Baby Boomers form a key market
Defining Characteristics Arising From Merging of the Megatrends
Safe and secure Clean Green Friendly and authentic Value
South Australia performs well on most of these dimensions
Domestic Tourism – Key Drivers
Safety and security
Value for money
Picturesque natural environments
Key attractions• Natural landmarks• Heritage sites• Historical landmarks
Food and wine experiences• Especially in natural settings
Domestic Tourism Issues
Outbound tourism growing strongly• Aspirational• Broader product range• Better value
Lack of awareness of Australian product
Domestic travel helps unite families• Offering must suit all family members
VFR continues to grow
Weekend breaks continue to be popular• Challenge is to move them outside peak periods
South Australia
Great natural environments Wide range of natural and heritage attractions Excellent food and wine Good driving location
BUT Low levels of awareness Limited access
www.tra.gov.au
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