Brown and Xu, 2012_Hydropower Development and Resettlement Policy on China's Nu River
Forecast of China's Sugar Market (Xu Xue, Research Center for
Transcript of Forecast of China's Sugar Market (Xu Xue, Research Center for
Forecast of China’s Sugar Market
Xue Xu 徐 雪
Research Center for Rural Economy [email protected]
7 June, 2013
2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference
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1. China’s sugar production and consumption
2. World ‘s sugar market
3. China’s sugar price - Why is it falling below production cost?
4. Forecast and conclusion
Key Messages
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1. China’s sugar production and consumption
• The 4th largest sugar production country after Brazil, India and EU27.
• The 3rd largest sugar consumption country after India and EU27.
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Sugar output: 13.3 million tons Consumption: 13.5 million tons
2012/2013 Crushing Season:
China’s Sugar Production and Demand
Unit: 10 thousand tons
Basic balance in
production and demand
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World Sugar Market
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Source: USDA, FAS, PSD online, 12/21/2012
Beginning Stocks
Total Sugar Production
Total Imports
Total Supply
Total Exports
Total Use
Output exceed
Consumption Ending Stocks
2008/09 43,389 143,888 43,802 231,079 46,689 153,857 -9,969 30,533
2009/10 30,533 153,517 50,446 234,496 50,620 154,871 -1,354 29,005
2010/11 29,005 161,762 50,399 241,166 55,585 155,513 6,249 30,068
2011/12 30,068 172,148 50,266 252,482 56,140 160,134 12,014 36,208
2012/13 36,208 172,310 48,538 257,056 55,144 163,614 8,696 38,298
Unit: 1,000 metric tons, raw value
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Price of Sugar #11 of ICE
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Unit: cent/pound
17.2 cent/pound
RMB 2400 Yuan/ton
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Domestic sugar price
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Unit: RMB Yuan/ton
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Why China’s sugar price is constantly falling?
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Domestic and world sugar price Unit: RMB Yuan/ton
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China’s Domestic sugar output and net import Unit: million tons
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5-6 million tons of state inventory
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Serious over-supply
Decline of sugar price
China’s Sugar Import
2011/2012: 4.26 million tons 2012/2013: 2.5-3 million tons
Ideal inventory:
3.38 million tons
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Why China is buying so much world sugar?
World sugar price is much lower than that of China
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China’s low protection level.
China’s sugar producing cost
is among the highest in the
world.
China: 5800 Yuan/ton
Brazil: 2500 Yuan/ton
15% tariff within import
quota(1.945 million tons);
50% tariff beyond quota
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Outlook and conclusion
2013/2014 Domestic market:
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Stable production
Low Price
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2013/2014 Global Market:
Output: 177.015 million tons; Consumption: 172.424 million tons Sugar production will be 4.591 million tons more than consumption. Although the production will be decreased, the surplus will continue increase the world sugar stock.
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World sugar price : 16-20 cent/pound
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Long term projection to 2020
• Global sugar consumption : 201 million tons;
• China’s sugar consumption: 22.1 million tons;
Gap in production and consumption: 5 million tons
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China’s sugar imports will continue to increase
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Policy options:
• Encourage the transfer of sugar crop field, and develop appropriately scaled operations; provide socialized services during the process of seeding, plowing, transporting, selling, to reduce costs and enhance efficiency.
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• Provide more support to sugar crop farmers to stabilize the interest of farmers, and increase the security of sugar industry.
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