Forecast

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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN CLIMATE CHANGE DIVISION NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY MONSOON WEATHER SITUATION REPORT 2014 DATED: 4 OCTOBER 2014 RIVERS RESERVOIRS (Reading 1020hrs) LOSSES / DAMAGES River / Structure Design Capacity (Cusecs) Actual Observations Forecast for Next 24hrs (Inflow) Forecasted Flood Level (Inflow) RESERVOIR MAX Conservation Level (Feet) Today (Feet) Details Attached at Annex “A” In Flow (thousand cusecs) Out Flow (thousand cusecs) Tarbela 1,550.00 1,544.25 Mangla 1,242.00 1,239.95 RIVER INDUS (Reading 1020hrs) RAINFALL (MM) PAST 24 HOURS Tarbela 1,500,000 60.0 73.3 55 60 Below Low Muzaffarabad 03 Kalabagh 950,000 111.0 102.5 No Significant Change -do- Chashma 950,000 106.0 99.9 -do- -do- Taunsa 1,000,000 90.5 67.1 -do- -do- Guddu 1,200,000 93.1 80.0 -do- -do- Sukkur 900,000 63.7 49.1 -do- -do- Kotri 850,000 25.7 .0 -do- -do- RIVER KABUL (Reading 1020hrs) METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES NOTES Nowshera - 15.3 15.3 No Significant Change Below Low A shallow trough of westerly wave lies over North of Iran. Seasonal Low lies over Northwest Balochistan. RIVER JHELUM (Reading 1020hrs) Mangla 1,060,000 26.0 32.8 25 30 Below Low Rasul 850,000 27.0 5.3 No Significant Change -do- RIVER CHENAB (Reading 1020hrs) Marala 1,100,000 23.0 7.0 20 25 Below Low WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS Khanki 800,000 9.4 1.1 No Significant Change -do- Mainly dry weather is expected over the most parts of the country, however Isolated thundershowers is expected over Kashmir. Qadirabad 807,000 22.0 0.0 -do- -do- Trimmu 645,000 26.6 10.8 -do- -do- Panjnad 700,000 26.8 11.4 -do- -do- RIVER RAVI (Reading 1020hrs) Jassar 275,000 2.9 2.9 No Significant Change Below Low Shahdara 250,000 4.4 4.4 -do- -do- Balloki 225,000 28.0 0.0 -do- -do- Sidhnai 150,000 14.5 0.0 -do- -do- RIVER SUTLEJ (Reading 1020hrs) G.S. Wala - 7.00 Feet only No Significant Change Below Low Sulemanki 325,000 11.4 0.6 -do- -do- Islam 300,000 0.8 0.0 -do- -do- Sources: PMD & Flood Forecasting Division (Isolated 20% to 30% of area, Scattered 30% to 50% of area, Widespread 90% to 100% of area.)PMDRain scales are good for Islamabad. However, its accuracy for all areas depends on Soil, time / duration of rain falls and its geographical spread. Light Rain 5 mm, Moderate Rain 7 25 mm, Heavy Rain 25 75 mm, Very Heavy RainAbove 75 mm NDMA Contact Numbers During Office Hours: Tel. (051) 920-2523, Control Room Contact Numbers: Tel. (051) 920-5037, Fax. (051) 920-5086, NDMA Website: http://www.ndma.gov.pk

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Transcript of Forecast

GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN CLIMATE CHANGE DIVISION

NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY MONSOON WEATHER SITUATION REPORT 2014

DATED: 4 OCTOBER 2014

RIVERS RESERVOIRS (Reading 1020hrs) LOSSES / DAMAGES

River / Structure

Design Capacity (Cusecs)

Actual Observations Forecast for Next 24hrs

(Inflow)

Forecasted Flood Level

(Inflow)

RESERVOIR MAX Conservation

Level (Feet) Today (Feet)

Details Attached at Annex “A”

In Flow (thousand cusecs)

Out Flow (thousand cusecs)

Tarbela 1,550.00 1,544.25

Mangla 1,242.00 1,239.95

RIVER INDUS (Reading 1020hrs) RAINFALL (MM) PAST 24 HOURS

Tarbela 1,500,000 60.0 73.3 55 – 60 Below Low Muzaffarabad 03

Kalabagh 950,000 111.0 102.5 No Significant

Change -do-

Chashma 950,000 106.0 99.9 -do- -do-

Taunsa 1,000,000 90.5 67.1 -do- -do-

Guddu 1,200,000 93.1 80.0 -do- -do-

Sukkur 900,000 63.7 49.1 -do- -do-

Kotri 850,000 25.7 .0 -do- -do-

RIVER KABUL (Reading 1020hrs) METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES NOTES

Nowshera - 15.3 15.3 No Significant

Change Below Low

A shallow trough of westerly wave lies over North of Iran.

Seasonal Low lies over Northwest Balochistan.

RIVER JHELUM (Reading 1020hrs)

Mangla 1,060,000 26.0 32.8 25 – 30 Below Low

Rasul 850,000 27.0 5.3 No Significant

Change -do-

RIVER CHENAB (Reading 1020hrs)

Marala 1,100,000 23.0 7.0 20 – 25 Below Low WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

Khanki 800,000 9.4 1.1 No Significant

Change -do-

Mainly dry weather is expected over the most parts of the country,

however Isolated thundershowers is expected over Kashmir.

Qadirabad 807,000 22.0 0.0 -do- -do-

Trimmu 645,000 26.6 10.8 -do- -do- Panjnad 700,000 26.8 11.4 -do- -do-

RIVER RAVI (Reading 1020hrs)

Jassar 275,000 2.9 2.9 No Significant

Change Below Low

Shahdara 250,000 4.4 4.4 -do- -do-

Balloki 225,000 28.0 0.0 -do- -do-

Sidhnai 150,000 14.5 0.0 -do- -do-

RIVER SUTLEJ (Reading 1020hrs)

G.S. Wala - 7.00 Feet only No Significant

Change Below Low

Sulemanki 325,000 11.4 0.6 -do- -do-

Islam 300,000 0.8 0.0 -do- -do-

Sources: PMD & Flood Forecasting Division (Isolated – 20% to 30% of area, Scattered – 30% to 50% of area, Widespread – 90% to 100% of area.)PMDRain scales are good for Islamabad. However, its accuracy for all areas depends on Soil, time / duration of rain falls and its geographical spread. Light Rain 5 mm, Moderate Rain 7 – 25 mm, Heavy Rain 25 – 75 mm, Very Heavy RainAbove 75 mm NDMA Contact Numbers During Office Hours: Tel. (051) 920-2523, Control Room Contact Numbers: Tel. (051) 920-5037, Fax. (051) 920-5086, NDMA Website: http://www.ndma.gov.pk

Annex “A” CONSOLIDATED STATE OF DAMAGES & LOSSES TILL 04 OCT 2014

PROVINCES / REGIONS DEATHS INJURED HOUSES

DAMAGED SHOPS

WATER MILLS

VILLAGES AFFECTED

CROPS AFFECTED

(ACRES)

CATTLE PERISHED

RELIEF CAMPS EST.

RELIEF CAMPS OPERATIONAL

PERS. IN RELIEF CAMPS

POPULATION AFFECTED

PERSONS EVACUATED

PATIENTS TREATED

KP 12 15 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PUNJAB 286 512 100,000 Approx.

0 0 3,484 2.41 M

Approx. 1,733 457 7 3,722 2.47 M 618,347 518,715

AJ&K 56 111 5,768 229 75 187 0 2,620 1 0 0 46,979 0 0

GILGIT-BALTISTAN 13 35 1,292 0 0 127 1,513 5,369 1 0 0 13,266 0 0

SINDH 0 0 0 0 0 267 0 0 68 0 0 0 65,583 0

TOTAL 367 673 107,102 Approx.

229 75 4,065 2.412 M Approx.

9,722 527 7 3,722 2.53 M 683,930 518,715

Annex “B”

FLOOD RESCUE / RELIEF ACTIVITIES CONSOLIDATED STATE OF RELIEF

RELIEF

ICT PUNJAB AJ&K GILGIT BALTISTAN GRAND TOTAL NDMA TOTAL NDMA

PDMA PUNJAB

ARMED FORCES

PRCS CSOs TOTAL NDMA SDMA TOTAL NDMA GBDMA PRCS TOTAL

Tents 200 200 20,000 70,600 - - - 90,600 3,000 1,300 4,300 275 - 20 295 95,395

Blankets 1,000

1,000

20,000 - - - - 20,000 3,000 2,400 5,400 - 450 440 890 27,290

Plastic Mats - - 10,000 - - - - 10,000 1,500 1,000 2,500 - - 140 140 12,640

Mosquito Nets

- - - 23,900 - - - 23,900 - - - - - - - 23,900

Food Packs - - - 190,500 4,138 (120 tons)

3,000 500 198,138 - - - - 325 - 325 198,463

Flour - - - 61,276 (10kg bag)

- - - 61,276 (10kg bag)

- - - - - - - 61,276

Mineral Water - - - 239,636 bottles

- - 67,888 bottles

307,524 bottles

- - - - - - - 307,524

Aqua Tablets - - 980,000 2,550,000 - - - 3,530,000 - - - - - - - 3,530,000

De-watering Pumps

- - 10 8 - - - 18 - - - - - - - 18

W.Filtr Plants - - 30 10 - - - 40 - - - - - - - 40

Note: Above mentioned data is provisional (received from Provinces) and subject to change

MEDICAL RELIEF

S. NO. ITEM DESCRIPTION IN NUMBER REMARKS

1. Emergency Health Kits 35 Kits 1 EHK for 9,000 population

2. Diarrheal Kits 15 Kits 1 DDK for Avg. 500 Patients

3. Assorted Medicines 3 trucks Additional to EHKs

4. Primaquine Tablets 100,000 For Vivax Rx

5. ACTs (Adults & Child courses) 5,800 courses

6. Anti-Snake Venom 500 vials

7. Aqua Tabs 67mg 1,468,000 1 tab for 10 litres

8. Aqua Tabs 33 mg 80,000 1 tab for 4-5 litres

9. Aqua Tabs 1.67 mg 600 1 tab for 200 litres

10. Aqua Pur Sachet 78,000 For turbid water

11. Jerry Cans, Containers & Buckets 900 10 & 20 Litre capacity

12. Dettol Soaps 7,575

13. Water Testing Kits to IPH Good for 10,000 tests

14. Nerox Water Filter + Life Straw 600 + 180 Water filtration at home

15. Safety Box + Syringe Cutters 1,100 + 78

16. Female Hygiene Kits 37

17. Mosquito Nets 26,000

Source: National Health Emergency Preparedness Response Network (NHEPRN)