Are we adapting to climate change? Adaptation tracking at global to regional scales

Dr James D. Ford1

& TRAC3 Team2

1Dept. of Geography, McGill University, Montreal

2Dr Lea Berrang-Ford, Dr Robbert Biesbroek, Stephanie Austin, Malcolm Araos, Alex Lesnikowski

www.trac3.ca

www.jamesford.ca

Context

1. The rise of adaptation

2. Are we adapting? • Who is adapting?

• To what?

• Where?

• Are we adapting more over time?

• Are adaptation policies motivating action?

3. BUT how do we track adaptation at global to regional scales? • Adaptation is a different problem than mitigation

Context

Context

How is adaptation tracked currently?

• IPCC reports / National assessments • Qualitative

• Expert knowledge • We all have some intuitive knowledge on what’s going on

Polarized opinions and contradictory findings on state of adaptation globally (Dupuis & Biesbroek, 2013; Ford & Berrang-Ford, in press)

Context

Adaptation tracking: a call for new approaches

• Systematic and rigorous

• Comparable

• (semi) Quantitative

• Provide basis for tracking over time

Essential for Paris agreement (Ford et al., in press, Nature Climate Change)

Attempt #1

Global assessment using peer reviewed literature

Berrang-Ford et al (2011),

Global Environmental Change

Ford et al (2011), Climatic Change

• 2006-09

• Increasing adaptation over time

• High-low-middle income profiles

• Extremes motivating adaptation

Attempt #2

Global assessment using National Communications (NCs)

Lesnikowski et al (2015), Mitigation & Adaptation

Strategies for Global Change

• 117 NCs (2008-2012)

• Coding of discrete adaptation initiatives

(n=4,104)

• Calculate adaptation index (scale of 0-19):

= number of types of groundwork adaptation (0-5)

= number of types of adaptation action (0-7)

• Leaders & laggards

• 73% groundwork

• Adaptation actions: flooding, water management, biodiversity protection (>50 countries)

• Predictors of national adaptation (Berrang-Ford et al., 2014, Clim. Change)

Attempt #3

Global assessment using municipal reporting

• Adaptation planning documents: 401 cities >1m people • Coding of 997 adaptation initiatives

• As per Lesnikowski et al but with additions

• Policy process: steps taken by governments to plan and implement adaptation policy

• No evidence of adaptation for 81% of cities (n=327)

Araos et al (in review), GEC

Attempt #3

Global assessment using municipal reporting

• Adaptation planning documents: 401 cities >1m people • Coding of 997 adaptation initiatives

• As per Lesnikowski et al but with additions

• Policy process: steps taken by governments to plan and implement adaptation policy

• No evidence of adaptation for 81% of cities (n=327) • Coastal impacts, built environment & green infrastructure most frequent

• Paris: high moderate • Heat related adaptations: encouraging roof conversion to green roofs, spraying roads with

non-potable water to reduce surface temperature

Summary: Are we adapting to climate change?

• 3 example projects: systematic tracking methodology developed

• Other work: hotspot regions (Da Souza et al 2015; Ford et al 2015), health in annex 1 nations (Lesnikowski et al 2011; Panic & Ford, 2013), Arctic (Ford et al 2014)

• Underpinned by the 4Cs of adaptation tracking: consistency, comparability, comprehensiveness, coherency (Ford & Berrang-Ford, 2015)

• Adaptation is emerging as a priority, but mostly groundwork

• Adaptations are generally mainstreamed (will this be enough?)

• Vulnerable groups being ignored

• Adaptation deficit is pronounced in many contexts

• Next steps

• Longitudinal assessment

• Adaptation Index 2.0

For more info …..

Websites:

www.jamesford.ca

www.trac3.ca

Follow us on Twitter:

@ccadapt

@tradaptccc