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For the British Polling Council / Market Research Society

19 June 2015

Voting Intention polling

Anticipated challenges in advance of final poll

Things we were on the look out for

3

• Similar to 2010 – younger voters who said they would vote Lib Dem did not turn out to vote

Differential turnout by age

• A proportion of those who said they would vote Labour/some other party would actually vote Conservative

Shy Tories

• ‘Reluctant Tories’ driven by fear of Lab/SNP Government and/or economic factors

Late swing

Late Swing: The “Yes, Yes, Noes”

NOT Tory/ DC best PM/ Con

best on economy

Don't like Cameron

enough/can't vote Tory/UK

needs real change

Left over winnable segment

Voters who will decide on local

issues

Voters who say other issues matter more

Tories best on the economy but I'm not benefiting

May well end up voting Tory

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

18%

10%

8%

2%

3%

1%2%

1.Best PM question asked from 4th-26th March & 31st March to 7th May (sample sizes of 12221 & 24523 giving a total of 36744). The best on the economy question asked in 1st tranche – 12221 base.

What we did

Our polling adjustments

6

• According to NRS• Gender, Age, social grade, working status, region,

tenure, cars, foreign holidays.Demographics• Which party you most identify with

Political ID• 1-10 likelihood to vote• Normalised for age• On the register• Alpha propensity model

Turnout• If you had to vote, who would you vote for? (don’t

know/ refused)Squeeze

Late swing?

7

10-12 April 29-30 April 5 May 5-6 May GE Result (GB)

Con 33% 33% 33% 33% 38%

Lab 33% 34% 33% 33% 31%

Lib Dem 8% 8% 9% 10% 8%

SNP 5% 4% 4% 4% 5%

UKIP 15% 15% 14% 14% 13%

Green 5% 4% 6% 5% 4%

Polled over 2 days to detect any late swing, but no evidence for one was found

Turnout weighting & squeeze

8

5-6 May (All who expressed intention to vote)

5-6 May (turnout weighting)

5-6 May (turnout weighting + squeeze FINAL)

Con 32% 33% 33%

Lab 35% 34% 33%

Lib Dem 9% 9% 10%

SNP 4% 4% 4%

UKIP 13% 13% 14%

Green 5% 5% 5%

Voting intention adjusted according to declared likelihood to vote on a scale of 1 to 10, with responses of those saying they are more likely carrying greater weightAge-specific turnout weighting also introduced to compensate for younger voters overestimating their likelihood to vote in the election, based on historic dataPropensity weights based on past voting behaviourSqueeze question

What we found

As shown by late VI poll, but also by recontact poll

No evidence of late switchers

1.15-19 May online fieldwork. Base: 3036 10

5-6 May (last VI poll)

15–19 May (Recontact)

GE Result (GB)

Con 33% 33% 38%Lab 33% 33% 31%Lib Dem 10% 8% 8%SNP 4% 5% 5%UKIP 14% 15% 13%Green 5% 5% 4%

The suspects

What are we doing?

12

• More exacting demographic quotas beyond NRS weights• Disabilities• Public v private sector• Education

Sampling

• Asking likelihood to vote insufficient• Developing propensity model• Differential turnout weighting by demographic clusters

Turnout weighting

Current

Sampling

1.Online Fieldwork 5-7 May 20152.“Which party will you vote for in the General Election on May 7th?”. Base: All respondeonts expressing an intention to vote

– Based on National Readership Survey (NRS)– Region– Sex– Age– Social Grade– Tenure

– Working status– Cars– Foreign holiday

13

New trial

Based on Government data (Census, ONS)

– Region– Sex– Age– Social Grade– Tenure– Working status

– Public sector– Cars– Foreign holiday– Disability– Education

FINAL PUBLISHED PRE-ELECTION POLL

With updated demographic weights

GE Result 2015 (GB)

Con 33% 35% 38%

Lab 33% 31% 31%

LD 10% 9% 8%

SNP 4% 4% 5%

UKIP 14% 14% 13%

Green 5% 5% 4%