For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper...

17
Investment update February 2016 For personal use only

Transcript of For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper...

Page 1: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

Investment update

February 2016

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Page 2: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Disclaimer

1

This presentation has been prepared by Walsh & Company Investments Limited as responsible entity (Responsible Entity) of the Emerging

Markets Masters Fund (Fund). The information in this presentation is of a general nature and does not purport to be complete, nor does it

contain all information which would be required in a product disclosure statement (PDS) prepared in accordance with the requirements of the

Corporations Act.

An investment in units of the Fund is subject to various risks, many of which are beyond the control of the Responsible Entity and Walsh &

Company Asset Management Pty Limited (Investment Manager).

This presentation contains statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material (forward looking statements), based on various

assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. None of the Responsible Entity, the Investment Manager, their

respective officers, employees, agents, advisers nor any other person named in this presentation makes any representation as to the accuracy

or likelihood of fulfilment of the forward looking statements or any of the assumptions upon which they are based.

This presentation may contain general advice. Any general advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives,

financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice with regard to your objectives,

financial situation and needs. Where the presentation relates to the purchase of a particular product, you should obtain a copy of the relevant

product disclosure statement or offer document before making any decisions in relation to the product.

Any opinions expressed reflect the Fund’s position at the date of this presentation and are subject to change. The information is taken from

sources which are believed to be accurate, but the Responsible Entity accepts no liability of any kind to any person who relies on the

information contained in this presentation. Unless expressly stated, none of the information should be taken to be a recommendation. You are

acting independently at your own risk.

To the extent permitted by law, the Responsible Entity, the Investment Manager or their respective officers, employees, agents and advisers

give no warranty, representation or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation.

Further, none of the Responsible Entity, the Investment Manager or their respective officers, employees, agents and advisers accept, except to

the extent permitted by law, responsibility for any loss, claim, damages, costs or expenses arising out of, or in connection with, the information

contained in this presentation. Any recipient of this presentation should independently satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of all information

contained herein.

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Page 3: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Emerging markets update

– Chinese uncertainty weighing on markets – GDP growth, FX policy,

stock market volatility

– Oil price and commodity volatility

• Commodity exporters (Russia, Brazil, South Africa) have been hit hard

– New Year has been marked by extreme stock market volatility

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Page 4: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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China update

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– FX regime

– Market practices

– Market performance

– Long term outlook

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Page 5: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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China Managers in EMF portfolio

4

80

100

120

140

160

180

Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15

APS JPM Cephei NCC CSI 300 Index

+13%

+11%

+38%

+36%

Source: Walsh & Co AM. Data to 31 December 2015. Performance figures in AUD.

Not simply investing in the index

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Page 6: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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EM economies have grown faster than DM

GDP

Growth

(%yoy)

5

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 2015

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Developed Markets Emerging Markets For

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Page 7: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Fund performance1 – peer comparison

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At 31 December 2015 – ranked by 1 year performance

Source: Walsh & Co AM, MSCI, Bloomberg

Notes: 1. Returns based on share price returns inclusive of dividends reinvested

2. Inception date was 2 October 2012

Peers AUM ($ mill) 6 M 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y Since

Inception2

Emerging Markets Masters Fund 157 -6.0% 3.9% 18.9% 28.8% 33.9%

Somerset Emerging Markets Dividend Gr 1706 -8.1% 1.1% 14.2% 32.7% n/a

CFS Wholesale Global Emerging Market 1,285 -12.7% 0.3% 12.2% 30.9% 35.0%

MFS Emerging Markets Equity Trust 281 -7.6% -1.1% -0.2% 10.1% 14.3%

Schroder Global Emerging Markets 190 -9.6% -1.4% 3.5% 17.9% 23.5%

CFS FC Inv-CFS Glb Emg Mkts Leaders 115 -10.8% -3.0% 1.6% 17.8% 22.7%

Aberdeen Emerging Opportunities 1,133 -10.9% -3.4% 4.1% 11.9% 17.3%

Mercer Emerging Markets Shares Fund 525 -12.3% -4.3% 0.1% 14.5% 19.0%

Russell Emerging Markets Fund Class A 167 -12.3% -5.6% 2.1% 17.1% 22.4%

GMO Emerging Markets Trust 205 -12.7% -6.1% -3.8% 5.4% 9.8%

Arrowstreet Emerging Markets 562 -13.6% -6.2% 1.3% 12.8% 18.1%

Dimensional Emerging Markets Trust 351 -13.6% -6.8% -2.6% 10.4% 15.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index -12.6% -4.7% 1.9% 15.4% 20.2% For

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Page 8: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Fund performance – drivers

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At 31 December 2015

- Country allocation, manager selection and sector allocation

contributed to strong performance

- Country Allocation

- Positive

- Overweight to China A, India. Underweight to Brazil, South

Africa

- Negative

- Underweight to Korea and Taiwan

- Manager selection

- 14/17 managers outperformed their respective benchmarks.

- Steadview Capital and Chinese funds were largest contributors

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Page 9: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Portfolio

8

Glo

bal/

Reg

ion

al

Co

un

try

Fund

31-Dec-14

Weight (%)

31-Dec-15

Weight (%) BMO LGM Frontier Markets Fund 8.1% 13.3%

Somerset Emerging Markets Dividend Growth Fund 8.7% 11.6%

Lazard Emerging Markets Fund 8.8% 9.7%

Polunin Discovery Frontier Markets Fund 6.8% 6.8%

Arisaig Africa Consumer Fund 5.8% 5.4%

Arisaig Latin America Consumer Fund 4.5% 4.1%

Schroder International Emerging Europe Fund 2.1% 2.6%

Steadview Capital Fund 10.2% 12.9%

APS China A-Share Fund 9.3% 7.4%

NCC China A-Share Fund - 5.5%

Cephei QFII China Absolute Return Fund - 5.5%

Aberdeen India Opportunities Fund 3.9% 4.1%

GBM Crecimiento Fund 3.9% 3.8%

JPMorgan China Pioneer A-Share Fund 13.4% 3.5%

East Capital Russian Fund 0.9% 1.5%

Aberdeen Thailand Equity Fund 2.0% -

Fama Brazil Challenger Fund 2.2% -

BTG Pactual Absoluto Fund* 3.8% -

Total Invested 94.4% 97.5%

Cash 5.6% 2.5%

Total 100.0% 100.0%

A diversified portfolio of leading managers

Source: Walsh & Co AM. At 31 December 2015. Notes: 1. Some figure may not reconcile due to rounding

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Page 10: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Frontier 22% China 22%

Brazil 2%

Other 19%

Russia 4% India 20%

Mexico 6%

South Africa 2%

Cash 3%

EMF portfolio – Country weights

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Country Active Weights2

-26%

-5%

-4%

-3%

0%

1%

3%

12%

22%

Other

South Africa

China

Brazil

Russia

Mexico

Cash

India

Frontier

Source: Walsh & Co AM

Notes: 1. Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding. 2, Active weights are relative to MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Country allocation1

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Page 11: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Portfolio – Sector allocation

Consumer Staples, 23%

Financials, 21%

IT, 13%

Consumer Disc, 11%

Industrials, 10%

Materials, 6%

Health Care, 5%

Telecom Services, 4%

Energy, 3% Utilities, 2%

Cash, 2.5%

Country allocation1 Sector Active weights2

Source: Walsh & Co AM

Notes: 1. Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding. 2. Active weights are relative to MSCI Emerging Markets Index

-7%

-7%

-4%

-3%

-2%

0%

1%

2%

2%

3%

15%

IT

Financials

Energy

Telecom Services

Utilities

Materials

Consumer Disc

Health Care

Industrials

Cash

Consumer Staples

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Page 12: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Valuations are compelling

Developed

Markets Australia

Emerging

Markets

Frontier

Markets

Forward P/E 16.8x 16.1x 13.2x 10.2x

Price/Book 2.1x 1.9x 1.4x 1.4x

Dividend

Yield 2.6% 4.9% 2.9% 4.0%

Forecast 2016

EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3%

­ Low in absolute terms

­ Cheaper than developed markets

­ Supported by solid earnings potential

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Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, FactSet, BMO LGM. Data at 31/12/2015

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Page 13: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Emerging Market valuations

MSCI Emerging Markets Index- Price to Book Ratio

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI to 31 January 2016.

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Current Average +/- 1 Standard Deviation

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Page 14: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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0.5x

0.6x

0.7x

0.8x

0.9x

1.0x

1.1x

1.2x

1.3x

1.4x

1.5x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Current

discount

37%

Long-term average – 11% discount

Emerging Market valuations

MSCI Emerging Markets – Price to Book Ratio relative to MSCI World

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, data to 31 January 2016.

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Page 15: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Frontier Markets

20% of EMF is invested in Frontier Markets

Unique exposure – no other retail fund in Australia provides this

access

Uncorrelated markets

Inefficient, providing great opportunities for active management

Security FM EM World

MSCI Frontier Markets 1

MSCI Emerging Markets 0.37 1

MSCI World 0.37 0.83 1

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI data (Correlation calculated based on Index weekly gross returns from May 2002 to Jan 2016).

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Page 16: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Australian investment landscape shifting

Tailwind becomes headwind – changing dynamics between Australia

and Emerging Markets

Industrialisation and urbanisation

Consumer led growth

Australian market dynamics

circa 60% of ASX in Financials and Materials

Historically low cash rates

Increasing opportunity for Australian investors to invest abroad in Emerging

Markets to harness growth

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Page 17: For personal use onlyForecast 2016 EPS Growth 8.4% 4.1% 10.7% 11.3% Low in absolute terms Cheaper than developed markets Supported by solid earnings potential Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,

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Emerging Markets Masters Fund

#1 performing emerging markets equity fund available to Australian retail

investors in 2015 and 20141

Truly active approach - 2/3 portfolio stocks not represented in the MSCI

Emerging Markets Index

Access to leading specialist active managers in region – tap into on the

ground expertise

Ability to express specific investment themes – macro overlay

Strong, stable performance across market cycles

Commitment to active capital management

Exceptional access – global network, but local managers is key

Highly experienced, majority independent advisory board and compliance

committee

Leading platform for investors to access Emerging Markets

1 Source – Morningstar Direct

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