For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead
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For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
BICS Mobility in Action, Bruges, Oct 29th 2013
[email protected] @disruptivedean
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About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Critic of RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
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Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
Predictable irrationality
Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Oct 2013
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Voice & messaging are fragmenting
Convergence
& standards
Fragmentation & differentiation
Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO
more standard, interoperable services
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Comforting myths
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
QoS is critical
Interoperability is essential
Minutes / messages = value
“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls
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Uncomfortable reality
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
QoS is only sometimes critical
Interoperability is essential
for basic lowest-common
denominator services only
Intention & outcomes = value
Phone calls are
becoming less useful
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In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”
Near voice
Contextual
Managed interruptions
Background +/-
Sync + Async
Not “session” based
Etiquette, not regulation
Varying importance
Natural
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Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
Strictly session-based
Limited context
Background negative
One-size fits all
Unnatural etiquette
Heavily regulated
... but eventually ubiquitous
>100 years ago
Pretty good for the 19th century...
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“Hegemony
of the
caller”
... but really not good enough for 21st century
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Voice ≠ Telephony
• Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE
Voice
Telephony
Voice
Telephony
Video, context, sense Video
Gaming, CEBP,
surveillance, social
voice, TV voice etc
Voicemail
Conferencing
PTT
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Comms moving “in-context”
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Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web
calls
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Oct 2013
Circuit IP
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
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Intent & context....
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
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Intention & purpose
Exchange information
Sell to a customer
Flirt
Manage staff
Gossip
Tell a story
Show off
Feel connected
Lie or pretend
Self-expression
Context
On the sofa
In a meeting
While online
Using an app
On the street
On public transport
In a bar
Multi-tasking
Duty
Concentrating
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1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES
CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
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Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones
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SMS
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So how important is quality?
Must have
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
I'll call back
% calls
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Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model
We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute
Short calls often more valuable than long
Minutes = easy to count
Align pricing – and charging – with value
Needs creativity, on top of standards
Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model
Flat-rate at retail is popular, but wholesale?
Analytics? Cloud processing? Perceived importance?
Regulator mindset needs to shift too
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
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Service
Product
Feature
Function
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Design & software simpler via the Web
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Oct 2013
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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
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Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
We’re getting closer to
communications services
& applications meeting
our real human needs
We’ll still need lowest-
common denominator phone
calls & maybe SMS & email.
But that’s it for ubiquity.
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Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details email information@disruptive-
analysis.com
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www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013