FoPIA – A framework for participatory impact assessment of...
Transcript of FoPIA – A framework for participatory impact assessment of...
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
FoPIA – A framework for participatory impact assessment of SLCP induced land
use changes in Western China
Hannes König
SupervisorsProf H. Wiggering (ZALF)
Prof L. Zhen (IGSNRR, CAS), Dr K. Helming (ZALF)
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Key objectivesImprove knowledge of the impact
o that the SLCP land use policy will have on the sustainable development in rural China (Guyuan)
Backgroundo SENSOR projecto developed in European contexto test applicability in developing countries
Task & visiono transfer participation-based FoPIA method to developing
countrieso test, adjust and improve (where necessary) the FoPIAo make FoPIA operational
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
“How will the SLCP policy affect
rural sustainable development and what are the
potentials, challenges & trade-offs?”
Most policies follow one specific target and
related sustainability dimension.
Whereas Sustainability refers to the social,
economic and environmental well-being for
today and tomorrow (iisd 2010)
Social
Economic Environ-mental
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Specification of the sustainability context:Local perceptions
Scenario development:Problem definition
STEP I.
STEP II.
Sta
keho
lder
par
ticip
atio
n/ te
sted
kno
wle
dge
Data availability
Scenario impact assessment:Trade-off analysis
STEP III.
FoP
IA fr
amew
ork
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Scenario development
Problem definition, delineation of system boundaries
STEP I.
research team
• Remote district of Guyuan
• Mountainous region with elevations 1.250–2950m a.s.l.
• Low rainfall: 470mm mean annual rainfall
• Poor economy of mainly subsistence small-scale agriculture
China
Land degradation/ environmental restoration
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Scenario development
Problem definition, delineation of system boundaries
Identification of land use change drivers, policy selection
STEP I.
research team research team
Drivers
Soil erosion => vast land degradation
Shift of small-scale agriculture into forestry and/ small business
Demographic changes (growth/ migration)
Policy
Ecological restoration policy (SLCP)
..
land degradationeconomic development
population growth
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Environmental restoration: SLCP program… with land conversion rates of 4,8% in Guyuan (since 2000)
Chen CC, Xie GD, Zhen L, Leng YF (2008) Long-term dynamics of cultivated land resources and their driving forces of Guyuan City in upper reaches of JingheRiver. Chinese Geographical Science 18: 33-40. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0033-5
Zhen L, Cao S, Cheng S, Xie G, Wei Y, Liu X, Li F (in press). Arable land requirements based on food consumption patterns: Case study in rural Guyuan District, Western China. Ecological Economics. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.12.008
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
SLCP-p1(>25°)
SLCP-p2(15°-25°)
no-policy
Converted land
Reference scenario (no policy)
Policy scenarios: partial implementation vs. full implementation
& alternative forest types
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Scenario development
Scenario narratives (policy + reference)
Problem definition, delineation of system boundaries
Identification of land use change drivers, policy selection
STEP I.
research team research team research team
SLCP implementation of alternative forest policy scenarios:
a) Ecological restoration
b) Bio-energy production
c) Agroforestry
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Ecological restoration forest
- on degraded land & slopes
- maintenance & limited use
- ecological purpose
- with native & non-native trees
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Fruit production (agroforestry)
- intensive use of pesticides & chemicals
- increasing land use type
- market oriented
- Goji berry, apricot, pear, nuts, apple
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Biomass production forests
- for energy supply
- shrubs and small trees
- use of marginal land
- new and innovative land use type in Guyuan
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Specification of the sustainability context
Initial list of social, economic and environmental sustainability issues
STEP II.
stakeholder consultation
SocialProvision of work
Food security
Quality of life
EconomicLand-based production
Non-land based production
Infrastructure
EnvironmentalProvision of abioticresources
Provision of biotic resources
Maintenance of ecosystem processes
1. Perceptions of local farmers (stakeholder workshop)
2. Specification by regional experts (expert workshop)
Definition of key regional land use functions
research team
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Perceived importance of land use functions (ranking)
6,1
7 7,1
6
8,5
6,16,5
7,6 7,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
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10
Pro
visi
on o
fw
ork
Qua
lity
of li
fe
Food
secu
rity
Non
-land
base
dac
tiviti
es
Land
-bas
edpr
oduc
tion
Infra
stru
ctur
e
Pro
visi
on o
fab
iotic
reso
urce
s
Pro
visi
on o
fbi
otic
reso
urce
s
Mai
nten
ance
of e
cosy
stem
proc
esse
s
Social Economic Environmental
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Specification of the sustainability context
Initial list of social, economic and environmental sustainability issues
Definition of key regional land use functions
STEP II.
Development of assessment indicators
stakeholder consultation research team research team
Modified and accepted
Right and possibility to access land for recreation (qualitative)
Rural people traditionally access and enjoy forest
Access to forests
Accepted by all experts
Oxygen and clean air produced by trees (qualitative/ quantitative)
Clean and fresh air is a major concern for health
Provision of ‘quality of life’
Accepted by all experts
Employment rate in land use sectors (%) (quantitative)
Rural people rely on land-based working opportunities
Provision of work
Social
Acceptance of indicatorAssessment indicatorRelevance to GuyuanDefinition of
forest function
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Scenario impact assessment
Clarification of scenarios, functions, indicators
STEP III.
expert workshop
Purpose
Create common ground of understanding among different disciplines
Consider implicit knowledge
Rule out misunderstanding
Simplify where necessary
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Scenario impact assessment
Clarification of scenarios, functions, indicators
Impact valuation, sustainability assessment
STEP III.
expert workshop expert workshop
Scenario Impact Scoring
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Prov
isio
n of
wor
k(e
mpl
oym
ent)
Prov
isio
n of
qual
ity o
f life
(hea
lth)
Acc
ess
to fo
rest
(use
r rig
hts)
Inco
me
from
timbe
r (w
ood)
Inco
me
from
non
-tim
ber p
rodu
cts
(non
-tim
ber)
Inco
me
from
fore
st s
ervi
ces
&in
dust
ry(in
dust
ry&
serv
ice)
Prov
isio
n of
bio
ticre
sour
ces
(bio
dive
rsity
)
Prov
isio
n of
abio
tic re
sour
ces
(soi
l hea
lth)
Mai
nten
ance
of
ecos
yste
mpr
oces
ses
(wat
er)
Social Economic Environmental
Ecological forest
Fruit plantation
Bioenergy forest
Expert knowledge used to judge impacts (scoring -3/+3)
Mean values show impacts
Ranges to prompt discussion
Rescoring
SWOT analysis for gathering different impact arguments
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Scenario impact assessment
Clarification of scenarios, functions, indicators
Analysis of expert judgments, recommendations and policy advise
Impact valuation, sustainability assessment
STEP III.
expert workshop research teamexpert workshop
Complementary analysis of impact results
a) by comparing impact arguments (contrasting arguments/ counts)
b) comparison with other studies (e.g. literature) or local stakeholder perceptions (household surveys, PRA)
1,33
2,38
1,49
0,56
2,21
1,64
2,74
0,82
1,54
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
Ecological forest Fruit plantation Bioenergy forestScenario (forest management type)
sust
aina
bilit
y co
ntrib
utio
n[n
orm
aliz
ed a
nd w
eigh
ted
impa
ct s
core
s]EnvironmentalEconomicSocial
1. What are the trade-offs? Who are the ‘winners’or ‘looser’?
2. Provide policy advise
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Employ ‘good’ facilitator who is able to synthesize, translate and
communicate different ‘languages’ and perceptions
Provide facts (research team)
Visualization highly appreciated and a powerful (supporting-tool)
Rule out regional hierarchal bias (stakeholder selection)
Stakeholder workshops are appreciated platforms for
communication and exchange (learn from each other)
Some lessons learned
CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011
Quantification of indicators remains difficult
Bridging the gap between disciplines (eco, env, soc)
Communication is key if we speak different languages among
disciplines (make use of concepts and define terminology)
Social indicators most difficult to judge (mainly of qualitative
nature)
Main challenges