Roger Goodell's Decision On Tom Brady's Deflategate Suspension Appeal
Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise...
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Transcript of Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise...
![Page 1: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Football under Pressure:Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate
Stan VeugerAmerican Enterprise Institute
![Page 2: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Alleged Malfeasance
• Indianapolis Colts and NFL accuse New England Patriots of cheating
• Supposedly deflated footballs before AFC Championship game
• Initial reports: 11 out of 12 footballs 2.0 psi below minimum
• Drawn-out legal and media drama ensues
![Page 3: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Timeline
• January 18: AFC Championship Game• Colts – Pats 7-45
• May 6: Wells Report Released• May 11: Goodell Punishes Brady, Patriots• June 23: Brady Appeal Hearing• July 28: Goodell Upholds Sanctions• September 3: Federal Judge Vacates Sanctions
![Page 4: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Timeline
![Page 5: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Wells Report
• NFL hires Ted Wells et al. to carry out “independent” investigation
• Find that Tom Brady was at least “generally aware” of what was deemed to be “more probable than not” illicit behavior
• Brady guilty under preponderance of the evidence standard
• Based on experimental, statistical, and other circumstantial evidence
![Page 6: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Statistical Analysis
• Question is whether Patriots footballs were anomalously deflated
• Difference-in-difference estimator using halftime measurements and assumptions about pre-game inflation levels:
PressureDropij = α + βdi + ϵij
• Data quality extremely poor
![Page 7: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Halftime Data
![Page 8: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Sources of Uncertainty
• Gauges used before the game• Lack of recordkeeping before the game• Gauges used at halftime• Recordkeeping at halftime• Timing of measurements• Everything after the game• Intercepted football
![Page 9: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Sources of Uncertainty
• Gauges used before the game• Lack of recordkeeping before the game• Gauges used at halftime• Recordkeeping at halftime• Timing of measurements• Everything after the game• Intercepted football
![Page 10: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Dif-in-Dif Estimates
1) Official Blakeman (“Official 1”) used the Non-Logo Gauge for all 15 of his measurements, while official Prioleau (“Official 2”) used the Logo Gauge for all 15 of his measurements2) As in 1), but assuming that the officials switched gauges after measuring the 11 Patriots footballs3) As in 2), but assuming that the measurements produced by the two officials for the third Colts football were written down in the wrong column4) As in 2), but without taking the measurements of the third Colts football into account
![Page 11: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Dif-in-Dif Estimates
![Page 12: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Sources of Uncertainty
• Gauges used before the game• Lack of recordkeeping before the game• Gauges used at halftime• Recordkeeping at halftime• Timing of measurements• Everything after the game• Intercepted football
![Page 13: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Pre-Game Gauge Uncertainty
1) Non-Logo Gauge for both teams2) Non-Logo Gauge for Patriots only3) Non-Logo Gauge for Colts only4) Logo Gauge for both teams
Logo Gauge measurements are .3 - .4 psi higher.
![Page 14: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Pre-Game Gauge Uncertainty
![Page 15: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Sources of Uncertainty
• Gauges used before the game• Lack of recordkeeping before the game• Gauges used at halftime• Recordkeeping at halftime• Timing of measurements• Everything after the game• Intercepted football
![Page 16: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Timing Controls
PressureDropij = α + β1di + β2CPi + β3CCi + ϵij
![Page 17: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Timing Controls
![Page 18: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Sources of Uncertainty
• Gauges used before the game• Lack of recordkeeping before the game• Gauges used at halftime• Recordkeeping at halftime• Timing of measurements• Everything after the game• Intercepted football
![Page 19: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Simple Difference
Expected range: 11.32 – 11.52 psi
Non-Logo Gauge: Insignificant excess deflation
Logo Gauge: No excess deflation
![Page 20: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sources of Uncertainty
• Gauges used before the game• Lack of recordkeeping before the game• Gauges used at halftime• Recordkeeping at halftime• Timing of measurements• Everything after the game• Intercepted football
![Page 21: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Intercepted Football
Measured three times: 11.52 psi
![Page 22: Football under Pressure: Assessing Malfeasance in Deflategate Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697bfad1a28abf838c9bf38/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusions
• Lack of robustness
• What is the prior?
• Protocol
• Data collection