Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation Ruerd Ruben Associate Professor WUR

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Ruerd Ruben Associate Professor WUR. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Central Issues  LFAs: Heterogeneity and Vulnerability  GEC -ICCD : Risk and Adaptation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Page 1: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Ruerd RubenAssociate Professor WUR

Page 2: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Central Issues

LFAs: Heterogeneity and Vulnerability

GEC-ICCD: Risk and Adaptation

Linking production, expenditures & labour use

Bio-economic farm household modelling

Food chains and networks approach

Page 3: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive Growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

kilo

gram

mes

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

1989

-91=

100

Increasing Cropping AreaDecreasing Fertilizer Use

Source: Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)

Page 4: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

SSA Agricultural Development

Small increase food production

Decreasing food supply

Rising input costs

Lower food prices0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

1989-91=100

Food productionper capita

Source: Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)

Page 5: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Topics and Approaches

Production options --> Crop simulation models

Income composition --> Portfolio analysis

Risk coping strategies --> Livelihood analysis

Rural incentives --> Bio-economic models

Bio-efficiency --> Chain analysis

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Page 6: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Poverty in LFAs

- Chronic Poverty +

Resource Degradation

- High transaction costs +

Low factor productivity

Source: Hazell & Ruben (2003)

Page 7: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

=Actual Production =Potential Production

Yield/ha

Agroecological potential

LFA HPA

Economic potential of LFAs

Despite lower level, higher potential !

Source: Ruben & Pender (2004))

Page 8: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 100 200 300 400

julian days

cu

mm

ua

ltiv

e r

ain

fall

(mm

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

6/9/02 7/9/02 8/8/02 9/7/02

rain

fall inte

nsity (m

m/h

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

cum

mula

tive rain

fall (m

m)

rainfall (mm/h) cumulative rainfall (mm)

Weather and Climate

Irregular precipitation

Concentrated showers

Source: Hengsdijk (2003)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

julian day

da

ily r

ain

fall

(mm

)

Page 9: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225

sowing date (kg/ha)

yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

non-infiltration fraction

yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

148

155

162

169

176

183

190

197

204

211

218

225

Critical Importance of sowing date

Source: Hengsdijk (2003)

Crop type Early sowing (quintal/ha)

Late sowing(quintal/ha)

Wheat + Barley

12 6

Wheat 10 4

Barley 14 7

Teff 12 3

Finger Millet 13 4

Sorghum 18 6

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

yield

N-uptake

N application

plateau

N uptake efficiency

2

3

labour

Sustainable Intensification

Complementarities

Labour & External Inputs

Improving input efficiency

Better yields

+ labour productivity

1

4

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Bio-economic Farm Household modeling

Prices Resources Technical coefficients

Consumption Expenditures

Production structure (land use pattern and technology choice)

Response multipliers adjustments (in consumption and nutrient & organic matter

balances) due to the application of policy instruments)

Savings and Investments

Source: Kruseman, Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)

Page 12: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Consumption behaviour

- Data derived from expenditure surveys (PRSP)

- Based on utility maximization: Uc = f (Umax * (1-e) -Y

- Engel curves for income-consumption relationship

- Negative exponential utility function (declining U/Y)

- Estimated for all income and consumption categories

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

POLICIES HH HigherOutputprice

LowerInputprice

ReducedTransac-tion costs

CreditSupply

Landtax

Animaltax

Rich 0.7 0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2REVENU

Poor 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1

Rich 0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1ORGANICMATTER

Poor -0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3

Source: Ruben et al (in Lee & Barratt, 2001)

FHH Models: Supply Response to Policy Incentives (Mali)

--> Selection of feasible technologies and appropriate instruments

--> Win-win scenarios

Page 14: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

+ rainfall -

area

(has

)

cow pea

sorghum

millet

maize

cotton

arachide

Source: Dietz, Ruben & Verhagen (2004)

Adaptive behaviour

Responses to decreasing rainfall:

- less cotton, more arachide

- more millet

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Options for dealing with livelihood stress

1. Food acquisition

2. Direct/Indirect Food Intensification

3. Market exchange

4. Income/Activity Diversification

5. Off-farm employment

6. Social arrangements

7. Reducing food intake

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Strategies for dealing with micronutrient deficiencies

(searching for bio-efficacy)

1. Dietary diversification

2. Supplementation

3. Post-harvest processing

4. Fortification

5. Biofortification (through breeding)

MN supply

MN demand

Uptake efficiency

Source: Slingerland et al., (2003)

Page 17: Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Further Perspectives

Sustainable intensification

Uptake efficiency (plants &

humans)

Chain & network integration

Multi-agency analysis

Impact of Policy instruments