Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in RTB basin Nepal Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar...
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Transcript of Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in RTB basin Nepal Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar...
Food System and Adapting to
Global Environmental Changes inRTB basin Nepal
Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani Dixit
Nepal Water Conservation Foundation New Delhi 2009
Study Districts
KapilvastuRupandehiNawalparasi
RTB Basin in Indo-Ganga Plains (IGP III)
Major crops grownPaddy is the major crops grown by about 98 percent of the households.
60 per cent of land has seasonal irrigation facility
Use of technology
Farming tools and technology are mostly traditional.Only 10 percent farmers use modern methods of farming.
Employment
About two third dependent on agriculture Rest on business, service and wage labor Low in industries
Monsoon flood is recurrent
Increasing trend of out-migration
Ponds and wetland are gradually being encroached
Characteristics
Food System Activities
Producing Food Mostly rice, maize and little wheat
Processing and packaging Local level activity, provided by Nepali and (dominantly) Indian traders.
Distributing and retailing food
Mostly local traders and truck owners. Food Corporation of Nepal (FoN) does distribute food but inefficient.
Consuming food Mostly at household level , festivals. In restaurant in municipalities for local gentry and development agents in transit .
Science
Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase frequency will augment flood risk (IPCC, 2007).
Downscaling study in RTB basin suggests climate will become more erratic as more heat is pumped into atmosphere (Stapleton, 2009).
Implications For NRM Untimely rainfall
Short term heavy rainfall
Increasing magnitude and frequency of floods in rivers: inundation, bank cutting, sand casting
Flash floods
Deficit rainfall: Frequent droughts
Rise in temperature will affect food production, diseases, debilitate health.
Climate Change Impact
Vulnerability Assessment of Food System(Food utilization)
Food security determinants
GEC stress to which exposed
Sensitivity to GEC stress
Coping capacity Overall vulnerability
Nutritional valueprotein (pulses, milk)
Water shortages, changing rainfall time
HighLess land will be allocated for pulses when rice production declines.
LowSwitching to low water demanding pulses is difficult because of weak agriculture services.
High Less land is allocated for pulses
Social value Paddy and lentil
Water shortages High Food other than rice (e.g. maize) is least preferred.
MediumSome ability to purchase
Increasing
Food safetyAflotoxin
Increased humidity and fog
HighRudimentary storage
and handling
LowLow because of lack of appropriate storage
HighLikely to increase
Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Access)
Food security determinants
GEC stress to which exposed
Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress
Coping capacity Overall vulnerability
Affordability Floods, drought, and fog (cold waves)
High Food prices increase during floods, prolonged drought, and cold waves
Low Low incomecapacity to adapt to floods, and fog period Increasing cost of irrigation
Highlikely to decrease with access to information and communication (eg. weather forecasting)
Allocation (intra community)
Floods High Disruption of distribution systems
MediumExpanding markets
Lowincreasing role of NGOs to force government to make food available
Preference (rice)
Changing rainfall pattern (time, intensity, duration).
HighDelay in planting
reduces paddy yield
MediumSome ability to purchase
HighLikely to increase
Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Availability)
Food security determinants
GEC stress to which exposed
Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress
Coping capacity Overall vulnerability
ProductionRice and maize
Floods and excess rain, delayed or deficit monsoon rain
High Land and crop are washed away, excess rain reduces maize production
Low capacity to adapt to floods, and Increasing cost of irrigation
High (but likely to decrease with access to information and communication eg. weather forecasting)
DistributionTransport of food.
Floods High Damages to roads, bridges and trails.
LowLack of appropriate storage, low income .
High Rise in transport cost, increasing cost re-building and maintaining infrastructures.
Exchangeduring monsoon
Floods HighWage earning and distribution declines during floods
Medium Limited capacity to store food
HighLikely to increase
Movement of food items in out of RTB Basin
Settlements along southern border import food from India also export. Import volume far exceeds export.
State
Activities
Consuming
Availability– Production – Distribution– Exchange
Access– Affordability– Allocation– Preference
Utilization– Nutritional value– Social values– Food safety
Outcomes
Producing
Distributingretailing/selling
Householder/ farmers
NGO/civil
society
Processing/packaging
Privatesectors
Actors
• Adaptation is more than coping. In a well adapted system people and the environmental and other features they value should do better
• Baseline survival is not the objective but continued development and improvement in the quality of life is
• Adaptation is ability to shift strategies • And such strategies should not lead to ill effects or no
mal-adaptation (socio-economic or environmental)
Our approach
Autonomous Adaptation: What populations “do” in response to the selective pressures and opportunities they face.
Planned adaptation: Proactive identification of climate impacts and taking specific, often carefully targeted, steps to respond.
Most “action” are likely to be autonomous
Larger systems help adaptation
Most government and donor interventions focus on planned adaptation
Attribution is essential
We need to make distinctions
Institutions, organizations and networks
Systems:
Physical, Social, and Knowledge: early warning
Core Systems:Water Food
EnergyEcosystems
Governance
Social Protection
Adapted from GAT (2008)
Conceptualizing Adaptation Framework
• The vulnerability of distributional system to GECs and on food system outcomes.• Cross country comparison of policies (India; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Nepal) as they relate to food system outcomes.• Early warning system combining modern and locally based mechanism. • Identify barriers to successful health related planned and autonomous adaptation to GEC stressor.• Understanding the role migration and factors driving it has to identify tangible both course of action for vulnerable communities and managing other impacts of GECs. • The role of conserving and expanding wetlands to serve asflood and storm buffers as well as food production and source of livelihood for marginalized communities.
Research issues identified in RTB Basin
• Improved strategies for decision-making in an uncertain future.• The strength and impediments for effective horizontal linkages between different agencies, and vertically between local, meso, and national levels to enable flexible policies and practice to enable adaptation.• How do link between penetration of basic energy, water, transport, finance, health, communication and other infrastructure, diversification of livelihoods and the ability to shift strategies as condition changes contribute to household food security.
Issues Identified for further broad research
Thank You