Food Security under Globalized Economy‐ Roles of Science and Technology Cooperation ‐gy p

Osamu KoyamayJapan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS)for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) 

Key message

Availability AccessUtilization(productivity, 

stability)(income, equity, social safety net)

Utilization(safety, quality)

Globalized economy

Positive aspects Negative aspects

MinimizeMaximize

Global public goods

Science and technologyOthers ……

Main Issues to be Discussed

1. Food markets in the globalized economy

What did we learn from the last turmoil?What did we learn from the last turmoil?

2. Implications of the globalization for food security

Is the globalization good for food security?

3. Competition and coexistence in world agriculturep g

How do we optimize the globalized society?

4 Roles of science and technology cooperation4. Roles of science and technology cooperation

How should Japan act ?

Long term changes in international food price in US$

USD/t

Long-term changes in international food price in US$

900

1,000

USD/t

Rice

Soybeans

600

700

800 Wheat

Maize

400

500

600

200

300

0

100

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Food price hike in 2007‐2008Food price hike in 2007 2008

• Policies to promote biofuels

• Linkages between financial and commodityLinkages between financial and commodity markets  Global phenomena

M i d i i f b hi d F d l• Main driving force behind      Fundamental supply‐demand situation

R l ti l ti ht it ti ti f• Relatively tight situation may continue for some period.

Relation between crude oil price and corn pricep p

Source: FAO SoFA (2008)

Lessons learnt from the crisisLessons learnt from the crisis

St bl f d l h t b f th t• Stable food supply has to be one of the most prioritized policy targets. 

• Low income food importing countries were revealed to be unprotected and vulnerablerevealed to be unprotected and vulnerable against price instability.

i i i d• Export restrictions were recognized as inevitable and sometimes acceptable policy options.

International solutions have to be pursuedInternational solutions have to be pursued.

Consumer Price Index by commodity groups (2005=100)y y g p ( )

120index

120

Bread

110Oils, fats & seasoningsFood

100

Soybean productsDairy products && eggsGeneral

Rice

90

Jan2006

Jul Jan2007

Jul Jan2008

Jul Jan20092006 2007 2008 2009

Consumer Price Index by commodity groups (2005=100)y y g p ( )

160index

150

160

Cheese

130

140 Spaghetti

Instant noodles

120

noodlesWhite bread

Edible oil

100

110Soy sauce

Soybean paste

90

Jan2006

Jul Jan2007

Jul Jan2008

Jul Jan2009

Soybean paste

2006 2007 2008 2009

Result of opinion poll on food security in Japan

100

p p y p

200890%

19962000

2006

80

90

polic

y %

19901993

80

for S

S

198770

uppo

rt

6030 40 50 60

Su

SSR in Calorie basis %

Long term changes in international food price in Yen termLong-term changes in international food price in Yen term

1 000yen/t

180 

200 

1,000yen/t

Rice

Soybeans

140 

160 

y

Wheat

Maize

80 

100 

120 

40 

60 

0 

20 

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 20091974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

International wheat price and market price in ChinaInternational wheat price and market price in China

RMB/t

2,500

3,000

2,000

,

1,500

500

1,000

0

500

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Wheat (Chicago) Wheat (China)

Jan2006

Apr Jul Oct Jan2007

Apr Jul Oct Jan2008

Apr Jul Oct Jan2009

Apr

Domestic wheat price and international price (US$)

Source: FAO

Number of hungry people in the world (in millions)Number of hungry people in the world (in millions)

Source: FAO

Estimated regional distribution of hunger in 2009 (in mil.) and increase from 2008 levels (in %)

Source: FAO

Concept of Food SecurityConcept of Food Security

AvailableAvailable

AccessibleEdible

F t i kFuture risk

InstabilityPresent threat

y

A framework for understanding food security

Foodecurity

 mes

Access UtilizationAvailabilityFood

 se

outco

Resources Productivity Income Consumption Human capital

red 

s/factors 

omes

Desi

cond

ition

outco

Enhanced community resiliency

Enhanced livelihood capacities

Enhanced human capacities

ood 

ty risks Natural Economic Social & health

Fosecurit

Enhancing people’s capacities to overcome political risks

Source: Webb and Rogers, 2003.

Food insecurity

Cereal yield per ha in LDCs is decliningCereal yield per ha in LDCs is declining

4,000

kg/ha

2 500

3,000

3,500

Africa

1 500

2,000

2,500

Asia

500

1,000

1,500Least Developed Countries

0

961

964

967

970

973

976

979

982

985

988

991

994

997

000

003

006

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20

LDCs are paying for imported foodLDCs are paying for imported food

billion USD25billion USD

15

20

10

5

0

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Import Value Export Value

Returns to investment in agricultural R&D are estimated to be very high.

• 43 % (average of 1673 cases) (Alston and others, 2000))

• If so, why is it underfunded?

P bli d i ll fi bl• Public goods: commercially unprofitable 

• Risky and long‐term: politically unattractive y g p y

• Borderless spillover: free riding is safer. 

• Somebody must provide them.Somebody must provide them.

Public agricultural R&D expenditurePublic agricultural R&D expenditureRegional gaps enlarge

Public R&D 1981

Public R&D2000

% Ag. GDP1981

% Ag. GDP20001981 2000 1981 2000

Developing 6,904 12,819 0.52 0.53

Sub‐Saharan Africa 1,196 1,461 0.84 0.72

Asia and Pacific 3,047 7,523 0.36 0.41

West Asia and N. Africa 764 1,382 0.61 0.66

L. America and Caribbean 1,897 2,454 0.88 1.15

Developed 8,293 12,819 1.41 2.36

Japan 1 832 3 828 1 45 3 62Japan 1,832 3,828 1.45 3.62

Source: WDR 2008Unit: million Int’l $ %Unit: million Int’l $, %

Position of Agricultural Support in G8Position of Agricultural Support in G8（Hokkaido Toyako Summit 7, July 2008）

・・promote agricultural research and development, and the training of a ne generation of de eloping co ntr scientists

G8 Leaders Statement on Global Food Security (excerpt)

training of a new generation of developing country scientists and experts via the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)・・

・・accelerate research and development and increase access to new agricultural technologies to boost agricultural production; we will promote science based risk analysisproduction; we will promote science-based risk analysis including on the contribution of seed varieties developed through biotechnology.

・・accelerate development and commercialization of sustainable second-generation biofuels from non-food plant materials and inedible biomassmaterials and inedible biomass

2222

Who is the main actors in S&T development?

Globalized society

p

International bodiesScientific collaboration

Multi-nationalsIntellectual property

Public goods

Competitive society

Cooperative society

InstitutionsInfrastructure

R l itiL l k t

society society

Rural communitiesKnowledge sharing

Local marketCommercial innovation

Local society

Key message

Availability AccessUtilization(productivity, 

stability)(income, equity, social safety net)

Utilization(safety, quality)

Globalized economy

Positive aspects Negative aspects

MinimizeMaximize

Global public goods

Science and technologyOthers ……

Bilateral Official Development Assistance for agricultureBilateral Official Development Assistance for agriculture

Total amount for Agriculture (2007) Per cent for Agriculture (2007)

0 200 400 600 800 1,000mill.USD

Total amount for Agriculture (2007)

0  2  4  6  8  10 

A t li

%Per cent for Agriculture (2007)

Australia

Canada

Australia

Canada

France

Germany

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

Italy

Japan

U.K.

United States

U.K.

United States

Source: OECD,DAC

Japan's Contribution to the CGIAR Research AgendaJapan s Contribution to the CGIAR Research Agenda

14.0

16.0

40.0

45.0%mil USD

10.0

12.030.0

35.0

6.0

8.0

15 0

20.0

25.0

2.0

4.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

0.00.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Amount (mil USD) Share (%)

Activities of JIRCAS

NARSin Japan

Univ.in Japan

AidiAidingagencies

IARCs

Developing regions

NARS Univ.

Developing regions

ConclusionsConclusions

1 Provision of global public goods is1. Provision of global public goods is indispensable for creating a well balanced l b li d iglobalized society. 

2. Agricultural research is one of the most geffective ways to enhance food availability as well as food accessibilitywell as food accessibility.

3. Japan, the largest net food importer, must play a key role in providing global public goods in agriculture.g g