Abdessalam OuldAhmed,Abdessalam OuldAhmed,

FAO Assistant Director General and FAO Assistant Director General and Regional RepresentativeRegional Representative

Near East and North Africa Regional Near East and North Africa Regional Office, Cairo, EgyptOffice, Cairo, Egypt

June 25, 2013June 25, 2013

Food Security in the Near East and North Africa: Food Security in the Near East and North Africa: Situation, Challenges and Strategic OptionsSituation, Challenges and Strategic Options

Outline

I. Situation of food insecurity at the global level and Recent Developments: changing trends in global food prices and supplies

II. Situation of food insecurity in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) Major challenges facing food security in the Near East and North Africa (NENA)

III. How the World is responding?

I. What needs to be done?

Outline

Situation of food insecurity at the global level

High levels of undernourishment in the World

With almost 870 million people chronically undernourished in 2010–12, the number of hungry people in the world is unacceptably high.

The vast majority, more than 850 million, live in developing countries

MDG-1 hunger target

More progress in reducing hunger in developing world than previously thought. MDG target within reach, only if adequate and appropriate actions to reverse

slowdown after 2006.

… poverty at the root of the problem

Adequacy of global supplynot the problem

Outline

Recent Developments: changing trends in global food prices and supplies

Global food price trend 1990-2011

Food requirement and sources: What is expected by 2050

Food demand to increase by 70 % cereal demand up by 1 billion tonnes meat demand up by 200 million tonnes these projections exclude biofuels

Where will it come from? small increase in cultivated area 90 % from increased yields and cropping

intensity improved seeds increased use of inputs (esp. water and

fertilizer)

Uneven progress: Africa, Near East & North Africa

Outline

Climate Change, Water and Food Security Nexus

Climate change, water and food security

IPCC predicts: increase in temp., sea level, extreme weather and a decrease in precipitation

Increased drought will Increase rural to urban migration Increase gap between rich and poor Fuel social tensions and strain public finances

As a result, food security risks will increase, particularly in dry land countries

Food Security Potential

Carbon Mitigation Potential

Food Security Potential : HighCarbon Mitigation Potential: Low

•Expand crop onto marginal lands•Expand high energy -intensive irrigation

Food Security Potential : LowCarbon Mitigation Potential: Low

• Bare fallow• Continuous cropping without use if nutrients• Over-grazing

Food Security Potential : HighCarbon Mitigation Potential: High

•Restore degraded land•Expand low energy-intensive irrigation•Soil & water conservation structures/techniques•Agro-forestry options that increase food or incomes

Food Security Potential : LowCarbon Mitigation Potential: High

•Reforestation/afforestation•Restore organic soils•Agro-forestry options with limited food or income benefits

Synergies/tradeoffs between food security and CC mitigation

Source: Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies, FAO 2009

Outline

Levels of food insecurity in the Near East and North Africa (NENA)

Countries in the Near East differ widely in terms of their natural and human resources and economic development, but they face common challenges in agriculture and food security:

Dry land environment with Limited and fragile natural resource base, particularly water: per capita renewable water per annum is estimated at 700 cubic meters compared with a World average of 6,400 cubic meters

High Population growth and in the region: average population growth rate in the region is estimated at 2.2 percent per annum, which is among the highest in the World

Frequent incidence of natural disasters (drought, desertification, desert locust, floods) and their aggravation by climate change

Major Structural Challenges Facing the Near East and North Africa

Some of the key drivers of food insecurity in the region

Poverty is at the core of the food security problem in the region. The poor spend anywhere from 35 to 65 percent of their income on food. Food security is predominantly an access issue rather than availability in the market

Inequality: The poorest quintile of the region’s population claim less than 8% of national income

Conflicts and civil unrest – continue to pose challenges to farming and related activities in Yemen, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Sudan; civilian displacement and loss of productive assets increases vulnerability to food insecurity

Unemployment rates are high; especially among youth, and many people depend on informal jobs

As a result, dependence of the region on food imports is high and is projected to increase over time

Impo

rts

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2000 2010 2020 2030

'000

MT

of

cere

al (

incl

ud

ing

feed

)

Demand

Domestic supply

Source: Adapted from IFPRI, 2008

Dependence on cereal imports will increase

Near East and North Africa countries are highly dependent on food imports

Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010

-76

NENA Region

-60+ + 2020

-6

-20

+18

+101+101+23+23

Cereal Productivity in NENA Lags Behind World Averages

Outline

What needs to be done?

1111

2222 enhancing domestic food sources

3333 enhancing markets and managing their volatility

Countries need to consider how they can combine these three pillars to create a comprehensive and integrated strategy

Addressing Food Security in NENA

strengthening safety nets, providing people with access to resources, markets and family planning services, and promoting education

A food security strategy for the region rests on three pillars:

The three pillar to address food security

3. M

anag

ing

Mar

ket

Vol

atil

ity

1111

Addressing Demand

2222

Enhancing Supply

3333

Managing Market

Volatility

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2000 2010 2020 2030

'000

MT

of

cere

al (

incl

. fee

d) 1. Address Demand

2. Enhance domestic supply

Source: Adapted from WB/FAO/IFAD, 2009

The first pillar strengthens safety nets and promotes greater access to family planning services and education

The First PillarThe First PillarThe First PillarThe First Pillar

Improve the targeting of safety nets

Make safety nets scalable

Employ cash transfers rather than in-kind subsidies

Strengthen program coordination and enhance payment mechanisms

Ensure sufficient resources are allocated to education and to family planning services

Educate families about the benefits of a well-balanced diet to sustain long-term health benefits

Fortify staple foods with essential vitamins and minerals

1111

Stronger safety nets are critical to protect those in need

Greater access to education has health benefits and reduces cereal

demand

The second pillar enhances domestic food supplies by investing in research and development and rural livelihoods

The Second PillarThe Second PillarThe Second PillarThe Second Pillar2222Supply ConsiderationsSupply Considerations

Productivity gains reduce price risk and are the critical counterweight to increasing food demand

Investment needs to be targeted to ensure water is put to its highest value use

Research and development can lead to new technologies that will drive up productivity

Investments in rural livelihoods will help rural communities make the most of their resources

The third pillar reduces exposure to market volatility by improving supply chains and using financial instruments

The Third Pillar The Third Pillar The Third Pillar The Third Pillar 3333

Invest in infrastructure

- Fixed infrastructure such as silos and roads

- Mobile infrastructure such as boats and trucks

- Intellectual infrastructure such as patents and IT

Reduce food losses

Create bonded warehouses

Partner with key suppliers

Futures: Especially attractive to oil-rich countries with access to credit

Options: Provide greater flexibility than futures

Swaps and loans: World Bank offers clients commodity swaps and structures commodity-linked loans

Improving supply chains can reduce marketing and transportation costs

as well as quantity risks

Effective use of diverse financial instruments can reduce exposure to

price risk

Outline

How the World is responding?

Food Security: Global Goals

Eradicating hunger, malnutrition and food insecurity is top on global agenda: MDG1; FAO Food Security Summits; G8 Summit at L’Aquila; G-20 Summit in Seoul 2010; meeting of Agriculture Ministers in Paris, June 2011; Rio +20; discussions on post 2015 development agenda, etc.

Outline

How FAO is responding to the recent development in foo security challenges?

FAO New Strategic Framework

Upgrading goal: eradicating hunger

Approach: an integrated approach to nutrition, food security and sustainable natural resource management, taking full account of the impact of climate change

Objectives: five cross-cutting strategic objectives

Objective 2 (SO2) calls for “increasing and improving provision of goods and services from agriculture, forestry and fisheries in a sustainable manner”

• Addressing malnutrition requires a multi-sectoral approach that includes complementary interventions in food systems, public health and education

• Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and malnutrition and that economic and agricultural growth should be “nutrition-sensitive”

• Investing in agriculture is one of the most effective strategies for reducing poverty and hunger and promoting sustainability

• Social protection is crucial for accelerating hunger reduction

• Closing the gender gap in agriculture would generate significant gains for the agriculture sector and for society

• Addressing the structural imbalance between food production and consumption• To accelerate hunger reduction, decisive public action is needed:

• Political commitment,• Institutions, Institutions, Institutions …

Global Food Security: Some Key Lessons Learned from the Past