Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO 1996; 2012)

… is more than food production… is underpinned by food systems

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

EnvironmentalWelfare

• Ecosystem stocks & flows

• Ecosystem services• Planetary

Boundaries

Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social capital• Political capital• Human capital

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …

Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …

Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …

The “Food System” Concept

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food

Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

?

So what are the contributions of Food Systems to crossing

Planetary Boundaries?

Agriculture as a source of GHG emissionsMt CO2-e, 2010

Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)

~21%, including land-use change

Crossing planetary boundariesAnd the contribution of agriculture & fisheries

Climate change

Rate of biodiversity

loss

Nitrogen cycle

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …

Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …

Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …

But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than ‘agriculture’ …

87

2

1 10

60

10

7

15

8

45

19

12

23

1

Producing

Processing

Distributing

Consuming

Waste disposing

IndiaUK USA

Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010Garnett, FCRN, 2009

… and a major proportion of GHG emissions from ‘OECD’ food systems are not from agriculture.

UK’s food industry “costs”(post-farmgate)

defra, 2006

• 14% of energy consumption by UK businesses and 7 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year

• 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply

• 10% of the industrial and commercial waste stream

• 25% of all HGV vehicle kilometres in the UK

Example contributions of

FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging food

Distributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

Climate change

N cycle

P cycle

Fresh water use

Land use change

Biodiversity loss

Atmos.aerosolsChemical pollution

Example contributions of

FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging food

Distributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

Climate change GHGs, albedo Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain

GHGs from cooking

N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs

Effluent NOx from transport

Waste

P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste

Fresh water use Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling

Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning

Land use change Intensificn, soil degdn

Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure

Forest to edible oils plantation

Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing

[Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer choices

Atmos.aerosols

Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking

Chemical pollution

Pesticides Effluent Transport emissions

Cooking, cleaning

1

2200

- Too much - -- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

(indicative; not to scale)

2 3 4 5 76 8 109

2050

2013

2025

kcal

/per

son/

day

Looking ahead …?

------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount --------------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---

The health and environmental consequences of satisfying this demand with current food

systems would be dire

Food47%

Feed34%

Other19%

FAO Food Outlook 2013

2.3 bn tons cereal produced in 2010/11

Re-allocating human edible foodback to humans?

Reducing food losses and waste?

Source: FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011

3000

2000

2500

kcal

/per

son

/day

Edible cereal harvest

After 15% lost on-

farm

After 34%fed to

animals

After 15% lost in food chain

Nature of food ‘loss’On-farm

1775

2675

3150

2675

2400

2125

1725

15% reduction due to population increase and environmental

change

33% reduction in

on-farm losses

67% reduction in feeding to animals 50%

reduction in food chain

losses

Animal feed Food chain‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013

Cereals: A plausible way ahead by 202550% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person

1500

After 19% for biofuel

1250

Biofuel

1000

50% reduction in

use for biofuels

1900

850

500

3000

2000

2500

kcal

/per

son

/day

Edible cereal harvest

After 15% lost on-

farm

After 34%fed to

animals

After 15% lost in food chain

Nature of food ‘loss’On-farm

1775

2675

3150

2675

2400

2125

1725

15% reduction due to population increase and environmental

change

33% reduction in

on-farm losses

67% reduction in feeding to animals 50%

reduction in food chain

losses

Animal feed Food chain‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013

Cereals: A plausible way ahead by 202550% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person

1500

After 19% for biofuel

1250

Biofuel

1000

50% reduction in

use for biofuels

1900

850

500

What are th

e obstacles?

political, e

conomic, social, technical

DRIVERInteractions

SocioeconomicDRIVERSChanges in:

Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context,

Cultural contextScience & Technology

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs

Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesion

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food

Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to:

Social Welfare

EnvironWelfare

Food Utilisation

Food Access

Food Availability

Food Security

Optimum FS management needs to understand FS processes in context of drivers and feedbacks