Food Security and Biotechnology Professor Paul PS Teng Senior Fellow (Food Security) S Rajaratnam...

Food Security and Biotechnology

Professor Paul PS TengSenior Fellow (Food Security)

S Rajaratnam School of International StudiesCentre for non-Traditional Security Studies

and Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning

National Institute of Education

Professor Paul PS TengSenior Fellow (Food Security)

S Rajaratnam School of International StudiesCentre for non-Traditional Security Studies

and Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning

National Institute of Education

5 April 20115 April 2011

Evolution in Thinking about and acting on Food Security

• Uni-dimensional to Multi-dimensional

• Supply side influence to demand side influence

• Rural to urban

• Single sector to Multi sector interventions

“Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

(Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N.)

Security for Whom?IndividualFamily Unit (Households)Communities (Country)Regions

What is Food Security?What is Food Security?

SufficiencySafetyEconomic AccessPhysical AccessNutrition

2.Access to Food

(Market Supply Chain)

1a. Availability (Primary Production)

Crops/Animals

1b.Availability(Food Supply)

Production, Imports Stockpiles

3. Access to Food(Income)

4. UtilitySafety/Quality/Nutritive Value

Demand for Food

Inputs

Labor Land Water

Sunshine

Fragility of Agro-ecosystemsClimate Change Competition for Land

Changing Demographics (e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)

Other Uses

Fish

Distribution

Biofuels

Animal FeedPoultry

Mammals

AquacultureCapture

Natural Ecosystems

Population IncreasesDiet DiversificationLifestyle Changes

Urbanization

Processing/Distribution Losses

Household Food

Security

Science/Technology

Urban Food Security

Trade

4 – Dimensional FoodSecurity Conceptual Model

Why is food a security issue?

Food Shortages

Food Contamination

Food Price Increases

Deterioration of Health

Deterioration of Nutrition

Loss of Life

Economic Instability

Political Instability

Civil Unrest

Social Instability

Food Hoarding

FoodInsecurity

Globalisation

Conflict

Climate Change

DRIVERSSYMPTOMSCAUSES

Poverty

Hunger

Main Threats to Food Security

Transitory Food Security

• Weather disruptions and pest outbreaks• Rising energy prices• Competition from energy sector• Policy changes e.g. trade• Lower holdings of cereal stocks• Diversion from staple to cash crops• Conflict/Terrorist activities• Economic factors

Four Dimensions of Food Security

Food Availability Production

Imports Stockpiles

Food Access (Physical) Access to markets

Infrastructure

Food Access (Economic) Employment

Overseas Remittances Foreign Direct Investment

Trade

Food Utilization Health and nutrition Sanitation/Hygiene

Storage/processing facilities Clean water

Chronic Food Security

• Demographic changes• Poverty• Underinvestment in infrastructure/tech.• Climate change• Fragility of agro-ecosystems• Unfriendly policies towards farmers• Declining no. of farmers• Globalisation

Biotechnology links to Food Security

Food Availability Production

Losses

Climate Change (CC)

Food DistributionLosses

Food UtilizationNutrition Quality (Biofortification)

TRENDS WHICH IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY

Mid to Long term• Demographics – numbers, shifts• Changes in demand for food –

Quantity and Qualitative• Investments in food entrepreneurship• Production and farmer-unfriendly policies• Climate and Natural Resource Base changes• Declining number of farmers

Immediate• Disruptions in supply• Input cost spiral• Alternative uses of biomass

• At present, 50% of the world’s population lives in cities – 2008 was turning point

• By 2050, 70% will be urban (mostly in developing countries)

• 800 million people involved in urban agriculture and contribute to feeding urban residents; 200 million produce for the market; 150 million are full-time employees

• Low-income urban dwellers spend between 40%-60% of their income on food per year

World Population, 1961 to 2050 (Urban vs Rural)

9 Billion by 2050

Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture (UPA)

Urban agriculture: the growing of plants and the raising of animals within and around cities.

• Integrated into the urban economic and ecological system; urban agriculture is embedded in -and interacting with- the urban ecosystem.

• Provides complementary strategy to reduce urban poverty and food insecurity

• Enhances urban environmental management• Contributes to local economic development,

poverty alleviation and social inclusion of the urban poor, particularly women

• Saves energy (e.g. lower transport and storage costs)

• Responds to market demand

Building more Resilient Citiesthrough UPA

http://www.ruaf.org/node/512http://www.ruaf.org/node/512

• Canada: – In 1946, about 1.2 million people worked on a farm as a main job. – Thirty years later, that number had dropped to a little under half a million.

-- Geoff Bowlby, Labour Statistics Division. 2002.

• U.S.A.: The farming population peaked in 1910. It started declining in the late 1930’s and accelerated in the 1950’s. Today, less than 1% claim farming as an occupation (and about 2% actually live on farms). There are only about 960,000 persons claiming farming as their principal occupation and a similar number of farmers claiming some other principal occupation. The number of farms in the U.S. stands at about two million.

Decreasing number of farmers

Farmers 65 and Older (%)

Ave. Age of Farmers No. of Farmers Population 65 and

Older (%)

(millions)

1970 1998 1970 1998 1970 1998 1970 1998

U.S. 17 35 51 57 1.2 1 10 13

Canada 12 19 49 51 0.3 0.3 8 12

Japan 14 43 47 60c 7 2.5 7 16

Korea 5 16 36 50c 14.4 4.9 3 6

Source: Population Reference Bureau -- Montague Yudelman & Laura J.M. Kealy. 2000

Farmers are growing older!

Stress Factors on the natural resource base

Soil• Degradation (Erosion, Salinization, etc.)

Water• Pollution by industrial and agricultural effluents

Air• Pollution by natural and anthropogenic sources

Global Climate Change (GCC)• Temperature (global warming)• Light (global dimming)

Dimension I: Availability Dimension II: Access

• AFP NEWS BRIEFS LIST

MONDAY, JANUARY 26, 2009 - 16:40

FAO SAYS WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION MUST DOUBLE BY DANIEL SILVA

• Global food production, already under strain from the credit crunch, must double in the next four decades to head off mass hunger, the head of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said on Monday.

• Speaking at the start of a two-day international conference in Madrid, FAO director general Jacques Diouf said the global economic crisis was already undermining efforts to tackle food insecurity and the need would become more pressing in the years ahead.

• "We face the challenge now of not only ensuring food for the 973 million who are currently hungry, but also ensuring there is food for nine billion people in 2050. We will need to double global food production by 2050," Diouf said.“

70% by 205070% by 2050

Increasing Food Availability (Dimension I, II)

• Productivity (Increase yield/unit area; Decrease losses)– Improved conventional seeds– Improved biotech seeds– Improve management of inputs– Improved management of processes

• Total Production Capacity (Increase Total cropping area)

• Imports (Increased Distribution)– Efficiency of distribution (diagnostics, LLP

management)

Irrigated Rice: Major yield loss factors

SubtropicsColdDroughtK deficiencyP deficiencyN deficiencyOrganic matter deficiencySubmergenceLodgingSheath blightBlast

Humid TropicsStemborerDroughtSubmergenceRice bugsBLBBPHBacterial blightLodgingSulfur deficiencyZinc deficiency

Sub-humid tropicsWeedsStemborerBacterial leaf blightDroughtBlastGall midgeArmy wormRodentsZinc deficiencyLeaffolder

HOW DOES CC CHANGE THE EFFECT OF THESE FACTORS ON CROP YIELD AND LOSS?HOW DOES CC CHANGE THE EFFECT OF THESE FACTORS ON CROP YIELD AND LOSS?

Yield losses in rice cultivationYield losses in rice cultivation

•StressesStresses Yield loss (as % of production) Yield loss (as % of production)

________________________________________________________________

•Pest infestationPest infestation 6.86.8

•Problem soilsProblem soils 6.46.4

•Water stressesWater stresses 9.99.9

•Average lossAverage loss 23.123.1

________________________________________________________________

New Farming land?Can Asia Learn from Brazil’s Agricultural Success? Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world’s major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil’s success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of self-sufficiency in the region.By Margarita Escaler and Paul Teng.

Can Asia Learn from Brazil’s Agricultural Success? Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world’s major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil’s success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of self-sufficiency in the region.By Margarita Escaler and Paul Teng.

Coffee trees cultivated under irrigation in Brazil's cerrado farms. www.rsis.edu.sg/nts

Credit: Anderson Galvao

NTS Insight October 2010NTS Insight October 2010

References

• <http://www.rsis.edu.sg/NTS/resources/research_papers/MacArthur%20Working%20Paper_Paul_Teng_and_Margarita_Escaler.pdf> Working Paper.Food (In)Security in Urban Populations By Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler The food crisis at the end of the last decade and the resulting food riots that occurred in cities all over the world exposed the vulnerability and fragility of the current global food system and highlighted the increasing problem of urban food security. Urban households were among the hardest hit by the food and economic crises as they saw their purchasing power decline drastically. Though aggregate world food availability was relatively good during this period, access to that food by the urban poor had been severely compromised. This working paper aims to analyse the factors that influence urban food security and argues the case for why an urban focus will increasingly matter in the international discourse on food security. A truly “systems approach” will be needed to study and deal with the many inter-related factors and players in food security. Too often have professional communities maintained disciplinary barriers when addressing such complex problems.

• http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0922010.pdf Commentary. Facing Food Shortages: Urban Food Security in An Age of Constraints Abstract: Seventy per cent of the world’s population are expected to live in urban areas by 2050. Food production to feed this larger, more urban and richer population will have to be done in the face of changing consumption patterns, the impact of climate change and the growing scarcity of land and water. It is time that urban centres take charge to usher in a new era of “urban green revolution”.

Climate change impacts on agriculture in APEC economies (Regional/sub-regional)

• Reduced crop, pastoral and rangeland production (South and east Australia; southeast Asia); reduced yields of rain-fed wheat and rice (southeast Asia); Northward shift of agric. zones (China); 40% projected decline in irrigated rice in central and southern Japan;

• Reduced grain quality (Australia); up to 30% grain yield reduction by 2080 (Mexico); 73-78% reduction in coffee production by 2050 in Veracruz (Mexico);

• Decline in potentially good agricultural land (East Asia);• Loss of farm land due to sea level rise (Southeast and East

Asia); >1 million people to lose land in Mekong delta

Source: IPCC 2007

Conceptual framework: CC and Agriculture/Food Security

• Mitigating causes of climate change: Reducing sources of – CO2

– CH4

– Others• Mitigating symptoms and effects on agricultural production:

– Water (Excess, Deficit, Irregularity) – Drought, Submergence– Temperature – Ambient, Water, Soil– Dimming – Solar radiation– Rising Ocean levels

• Mitigating effects on food security– Production and Production Process(es)– Supply of unprocessed agricultural produce for food (Diversion to

biofuel)– Distribution

CC :MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

Mitigating causes of climate change -- Methane

Reducing methane emissions to atmosphere• Rice: c 13%

– Changing rice plant architecture and anatomy through conventional breeding and biotechnology

– Changing farming system from paddy rice to dryland rice

• Livestock: c 17%– Changing diet composition of rumen livestock– Changing efficiency and nature of digestive process

through breeding with biotechnology tools

What biotechnologies?What enablers?

Biotechnology & Climate Change Mitigation

• Reduced fuel consumption on farms through– Reduced need to spray crops – Fuel savings in 2007

through BT led to a reduction of 1.1 million tons of CO2 – Reduced tillage or no-tillage – leads to reduced CO2

emissions of 89 or 36 kg/ha respectively• Enhanced carbon sequestration

– More carbon is sequestered through no tillage• Reduced fertilizer use and N2O emissions

– Nitrogen use efficiency in crops • Livestock and manure management• Biofuel crop development• Third generation biofuel development

Biotechnology & Climate Change Adaptation

• Trait improvement: – heat and drought tolerance (Drought-tolerant maize)– waterlogging tolerance– frost, pest and disease resistance – water-use efficiency (e.g. Water-efficient Maize for Africa)– nutrient-use efficiency– early vigor– reduced dependence on low temperatures to trigger

flowering or seed germination

• Reducing water loss from agriculture: Less ploughing means trapping moisture

Key Messages - I

• Adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture are of great concern. Food security will remain elusive in several countries by 2050, if suitable policies and measures for adaptation to climate change are not in place.

• Agricultural adaptations to climate change are crucial to achieve not only food security but also water security, and even energy security, thereby social security & sustainability.

• Agriculture and forestry sectors contribute around 30% of global GHG emissions; Their mitigation potential is comparable to industry and energy supply, especially in developing countries, and more than that in transport and waste sectors.

• Agriculture offers many low-cost GHG mitigation opportunities. Income from carbon offsets from agriculture, if properly recognized in the post-2012 climate regime, can nearly meet adaptation costs.

ASEANASEAN

ASIA-PACIFICASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE & AMERICASEUROPE & AMERICAS

Global Food Supply ChainGlobal Food Supply Chain

Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --

Distribution

Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --

Distribution

Food Security: geographic connectivity

Crop Item 2006/07 2009/10

Corn (Maize) Global/Asia Production, Million M T 698.0 810.9/190.1

Global Exports, Million M T(% of global production)

84.4(12%)

88.8(11%)

Asian Imports, Million MT(% of Global Exports)

43.3(51%)

36.2(41%)

Rice (Milled) Global/Asia Production, Million M T 417.0 441.0/383.4


29.0(7%)

30.1(7%)


7.4(25%)

7.9(26%)

Wheat Global Production/Asia, Million M T 594.0 680.0/ 242.1


110.0(19%)

134.0(19.8%)


28.8(26%)

35.0(26%)

Soybean (For Meal) Global Production, Million M T 153.8 163.8


54.6(35%)

55.3(34%)


12.8(24%)

13.9(25%)

How secure is the world food system??

• Five companies control 90% of the global trade in grain• Three companies control 85% of the global tea market• Five companies control 80% of the global trade in bananas• Almost all commercial bananas in the world today are just one variety

-- Cavendish• > 90% of milk in the U.S.A. comes from 1 breed of cattle• > 90% of eggs from 1 breed of layer-hen• 1 company owns >90% of the world’s patents filed on genetically

modified seed

Dimension III: Economic Access

Trends in World Hunger

Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009). Value for 2009 is a projection.

Where do the Hungry Live ?

Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009)..

Jeffrey Sachs. 2005. The end of Poverty. Penguin

Food Price Crisis

Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009).

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Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket

14 April, 2008 (CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world's attention, the head of an agency focused on global development said Monday."This is the world's big story," said Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute."The finance ministers were in shock, almost in panic this weekend," he said on CNN's "American Morning," in a reference to top economic officials who gathered in Washington. "There are riots all over the world in the poor countries ... and, of course, our own poor are feeling it in the United States.“

World Bank President Robert Zoellick has said the surging costs could mean "seven lost years" in the fight against worldwide poverty.

What governments fear!What governments fear!

Dimension IV: Utilization

(Nutritive Value, Quality, Safety)

World Food Programme: Basic Terms and Definitions

• UNDERNOURISHMENT: describes the status of persons, whose food intake regularly provides less than their minimum energy requirements (MDG indicator of Hunger)

• UNDERWEIGHT: Weight for Age, measured in children under 5 years of age. (MDG indicator of Hunger)

– Moderate = 2 std deviations below the reference standard;

– Severe = 3 std deviations below the reference standard;

• WASTING: Weight for Height. Measure of acute malnutrition.

• STUNTING: Height for Age. Measure of chronic malnutrition

Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC), FAO)

Courtesy: Michael Sheinkman, WFP, ThailandCourtesy: Michael Sheinkman, WFP, Thailand

Prevalence of Undernourished (MDG indicator)

Food Security Atlas – SE Asia

Action: Safety Nets and CashFood Aid from surplus countriesBiofortified crops?

Action: Safety Nets and CashFood Aid from surplus countriesBiofortified crops?

2.Access to Food

(Market Supply Chain)

1a. Availability (Primary Production)

Crops/Animals

1b.Availability(Food Supply)

Production, Imports Stockpiles

3. Access to Food(Income)

4. UtilitySafety/Quality/Nutritive Value

Demand for Food

Inputs

Labor Land Water

Sunshine

Fragility of Agro-ecosystemsClimate Change Competition for Land

Changing Demographics (e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)

Other Uses

Fish

Distribution

Biofuels

Animal FeedPoultry

Mammals

AquacultureCapture

Natural Ecosystems

Population IncreasesDiet DiversificationLifestyle Changes

Urbanization

Processing/Distribution Losses

Household Food

Security

Science/Technology

Urban Food Security

Trade

4 – Dimensional FoodSecurity Conceptual Model

The International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS)(http://www.rsis.edu.sg/nts/article.asp?id=163)

About the Centre:

Date: 10 – 12 August 2011Venue: Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel Singapore.The International Conference on Asia Food Security (ICAFS), seeks to bring together stakeholders from government, non-governmental organisations, the business community, academic institutions and other interested parties to explore the prevailing challenges and opportunities for promoting long-term food security in Asia. ICAFS has secured the presence of leading experts and practitioners in the food security field to discuss issues ranging from urban-rural food interdependencies and small-scale agricultural progress to cutting-edge agro-technologies and advancements in food processing, distribution and market assessment. This wide-ranging scope ensures that ICAFS will provide valuable information across a comprehensive set of food security topics.Much more information on ICAFS can be accessed through the webpage on the International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS) ‘Feeding Asia in the 21st Century: Building Urban-Rural Alliances’, including details on the conference schedule, confirmed speakers and registration procedure.ICAFS is also welcoming paper submissions across a broad list of food security topics, which is likewise explained in greater detail here. Please do not hesitate to contact the conference convenors (contact information listed in the webpage) if you have any questions relating to ICAFS.

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