Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes

Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and

Technology ChangesTechnology Changes

Joachim von BraunJoachim von BraunInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Study week on “Transgenic Plants for Food Security in the Context of Study week on “Transgenic Plants for Food Security in the Context of Development” Development”

The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City, May 15, 2009The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City, May 15, 2009

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Overview Overview

1.1. Ending hunger as a global priorityEnding hunger as a global priority

2.2. The food and nutrition crisis expands The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepensand deepens

3.3. The responses to the crisis by people, The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and marketspolicy, and markets

4.4. Necessary policy and technology Necessary policy and technology changeschanges


Consensus and call to actionConsensus and call to action

““The poor… should rise above povertyThe poor… should rise above poverty

and wretchedness, and better theirand wretchedness, and better their

condition in life.” condition in life.”

(Encyclical, Pope Leo XIII 1891)(Encyclical, Pope Leo XIII 1891)


Approaches to overcome hungerApproaches to overcome hunger

1.1. Development (economic, Development (economic, technologicaltechnological, , institutional)institutional)

2.2. Charity (private, public)Charity (private, public)

3.3. Rights-based approach (human right to Rights-based approach (human right to food, legal, advocacy)food, legal, advocacy)

All three have an ethical base All three have an ethical base

Synergies exist, e.g.: blocking 1Synergies exist, e.g.: blocking 1stst undermines 3undermines 3rdrd, and cannot easily be , and cannot easily be

compensated for by 2compensated for by 2ndnd . .


Messages of this presentation Messages of this presentation

1.1. Technology innovations in food and Technology innovations in food and agriculture are cutting across and are agriculture are cutting across and are pervasivepervasive

2.2. Agr. tech. powers come through Agr. tech. powers come through development as part of other innovations development as part of other innovations

3.3. If agr. tech innovations are blocked, If agr. tech innovations are blocked, development is blocked, poverty and hunger development is blocked, poverty and hunger is perpetuatedis perpetuated


Overview Overview






Growth matters: hunger - income linkage

Source: von Braun, regressions based on data from World Bank (2005) and FAO (2005)

Hunger and GDP/ capita in developing countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

GDP per Capita (in constant 2000 US$)

Undernourishment (% of pop)

Log. (1990-1992)

Log. (2001-03)

Log. (1995-1997)


1.4 billion people remain poor in the 1.4 billion people remain poor in the developing worlddeveloping world

Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPPPoverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP

Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.


The ultra poor concentrated in SSA The ultra poor concentrated in SSA

People living on $0.75-People living on $0.75-$1 a day:$1 a day:

485 million485 million

People living on People living on <$0.50 a day:<$0.50 a day:


People living on People living on $0.50-$0.75 a day:$0.50-$0.75 a day:


SA162.9 mln

SSA 90.2 mln

EAP 51 mln

LAC16.6 mln

MENA0.9 mln

ECA 1.1 mln MENA0.2 mln

ECA 0.4 mlnLAC11.5 mln

EAP8.8 mln

SA19.7 mln

SSA121 mln

LAC19 mln

ECA3 mln MENA

3.3 mln

EAP109.3 mln

SSA87.0 mln

SA263.6 mln

Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.


Rising number of hungry people in the Rising number of hungry people in the developing world developing world

Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

(in

mil

lio

n)

>1 bil.

WFS target


Progress in “hunger” reduction, Progress in “hunger” reduction,

Source:. IFPRI 2008.Source:. IFPRI 2008.

Global Hunger Index 2008 vs. 1990lack of calories, child under-nutrition, child death


Who is affected by hunger? Who is affected by hunger?

Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.


……and average farm sizes are getting smaller and average farm sizes are getting smaller

IndiaIndia ChinaChina EthiopiaEthiopia TanzaniaTanzania

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1970

-71

1981

-82

1991

-92

2002

-03

1980

1990

1999

1977

1989

-92

2001

-02

1995

2002

-03

Hectares Average farm sizes in selected countriesAverage farm sizes in selected countries

Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World Census and Indiastat. Census and Indiastat.


Agricultural productivity growth in Agricultural productivity growth in developing countries: too low! developing countries: too low!

%

East AsiaEast Asia 2.72.7

South AsiaSouth Asia 1.01.0

East AfricaEast Africa 0.40.4

West AfricaWest Africa 1.61.6

Southern AfricaSouthern Africa 1.31.3

Latin AmericaLatin America 2.72.7

North Africa & West AsiaNorth Africa & West Asia 1.41.4

All regionsAll regions 2.12.1

Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003

Source: von Braun et al. 2008.Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

Small farms can be very productive


Are we living in unusual times?Are we living in unusual times?

Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database, Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database, BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008; BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008;

Population data from U.S. Census Bureau Int’l database and UN1999.Population data from U.S. Census Bureau Int’l database and UN1999.

1872-2008 prices and population1872-2008 prices and population


World Population: Population 2050World Population: Population 2050- from 6.7 to 9 Billion -- from 6.7 to 9 Billion -

Source: Worldmapper 2009.

The good news: probably not more than 9 Billion


The development and demographic The development and demographic challenges to “feed the world”challenges to “feed the world”

1.1. overcome current hunger among overcome current hunger among 2 Billion2 Billion

2.2. + 2 – 3 Billion population; + 2 – 3 Billion population;

3.3. + increased demand (income + increased demand (income growth from demographic growth from demographic dividend and development)dividend and development)

--------------------------------------------------

= doubling food (by 2050) = doubling food (by 2050)


Land / Water ConstraintsLand / Water Constraints

• There is at most 12% more arable land There is at most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (R. subject to erosion or desertification (R. Thompson, 2009)Thompson, 2009)

• The area of land in farm production could be The area of land in farm production could be doubled, but only by massive destruction of doubled, but only by massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity, and sequestration capacity, and

• at high marginal costs of investment.at high marginal costs of investment.--------------------------------------------------------------= a (relative) constraint= a (relative) constraint


Current Areas of Physical and Economic Current Areas of Physical and Economic Water ScarcityWater Scarcity

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.


Agriculture and climate change: Agriculture and climate change: part of the problem and the solutionpart of the problem and the solution

• Agriculture is part of the Agriculture is part of the problemproblem::

Agriculture: 13.5 % of the COAgriculture: 13.5 % of the CO22 equivalents equivalents

(Transport: 13.1%), and forestry 19%(Transport: 13.1%), and forestry 19%

• Agriculture is part of the Agriculture is part of the solutionsolution::

Biomass; COBiomass; CO22 sequestration; soil sequestration; soil

managementmanagement


Climate change Climate change willwill affect agriculture affect agriculture

• Threat 1: Changes to production with Threat 1: Changes to production with - higher and more variable temperatureshigher and more variable temperatures- changed precipitation patternschanged precipitation patterns- more extreme events (droughts, floods), etc.more extreme events (droughts, floods), etc.

• Threat 2: climate change policies Threat 2: climate change policies

- for agriculture and poor farming communities if - for agriculture and poor farming communities if agriculture is not or not well included in agriculture is not or not well included in Copenhagen etc. Copenhagen etc.


Overview Overview






Response 1: markets - price spike, 2007-08 Response 1: markets - price spike, 2007-08

Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

Export bans; biofuels, not sharing in times of need


Response 2: suffering among the poorResponse 2: suffering among the poor

Purchasing power: Purchasing power: 50-70% of income spent on food and wages do not adjust accordingly

Assets and human capital: Assets and human capital: distressed sale of productive assets, withdrawal of girls from school, etc.

+ Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high)+ Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high)

Nutrition is underminedNutrition is undermined

Source: Joachim von Braun 2008. Source: Joachim von Braun 2008.


Response 3: Food riotsResponse 3: Food riots

Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Prices are data from FAOSource: J. von Braun based on news reports. Prices are data from FAO


Financial crisis and depressionFinancial crisis and depression

• Less capitalLess capital for agriculture now for agriculture now

• Higher debtHigher debt burden for farmers who invested in burden for farmers who invested in agriculture expansionagriculture expansion

• Reduced employment and wagesReduced employment and wages of unskilled of unskilled workersworkers

• Reduced remittancesReduced remittances


Response 4: Pledges to address the food Response 4: Pledges to address the food crisis (2008/9)crisis (2008/9)

Donor organization/country Pledge (bil.$)

World BankWorld Bank 22

EU (EC & national)EU (EC & national) 5 +5 +

USAUSA 66

Increase in public budgets on agric. and social protectionbil. $US % change

ChinaChina 23 23 +27%+27%

IndiaIndia 66 +24%+24%

Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.

Plus 2009 stimulus packages: China: 109 bil. US$ for agricultureIndia: also increased ++


Response 5: Looking for LandResponse 5: Looking for Land

Source: IFPRI media and reporting analyses Note: Thicker lines reflect investments >100,000 ha; Source: IFPRI media and reporting analyses Note: Thicker lines reflect investments >100,000 ha; for some thinner lines, data on investment size is not available.for some thinner lines, data on investment size is not available.


Overview Overview






Strategic agendaStrategic agenda

1.1. Promote pro-poor agriculture Promote pro-poor agriculture growth growth with with technology and institutional innovationstechnology and institutional innovations

2.2. Facilitate open Facilitate open tradetrade and reduce market and reduce market volatility volatility

3.3. Expand social protection and child Expand social protection and child nutrition actionnutrition action

Action needed for Action needed for all 3all 3


Synergy between technology and Synergy between technology and institutional arrangements institutional arrangements

ChallengesRole of

technologyRole of

institutions

Hunger and diet deficits++* ++

Population growth + +

Agric productivity+++* ++

Volatility of prices + +++

Recession impact + ++

Climate change and water+++* +++

* = Strong role of bio-technology


What to do about volatility?What to do about volatility?

1.1. Keep trade openKeep trade open at times of global and at times of global and regional food shortage is a must regional food shortage is a must

2.2. Regulation of food Regulation of food commodity marketscommodity markets? (as ? (as part of financial markets)part of financial markets)

3.3. Establish grain Establish grain reserves policyreserves policy at global level at global level (emergency reserve, shared physical (emergency reserve, shared physical reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new institution at global level needed)institution at global level needed)


Use bio-technology to address hunger and Use bio-technology to address hunger and food insecurityfood insecurity

1.1. Farmers Farmers (higher productivity, small farmers can (higher productivity, small farmers can be major beneficiaries)be major beneficiaries)

2.2. Consumers Consumers (improved health outcomes, (improved health outcomes, reduction in food and health expenditure)reduction in food and health expenditure)

3.3. International trade International trade (reduction in global food (reduction in global food prices and volatility)prices and volatility)

4.4. InsuranceInsurance against food security risks (must against food security risks (must have technology in stock)have technology in stock)


If no investment in Biotech, If no investment in Biotech, what are the other options?what are the other options?

Alternative 1Alternative 1: Use more environmental capital: Use more environmental capital

Alternative 2Alternative 2: Invest more in safety nets and : Invest more in safety nets and direct action direct action

But, these alternatives are not But, these alternatives are not feasible/sustainablefeasible/sustainable


Need a functional bio-safety system - evidence Need a functional bio-safety system - evidence based (neither light, nor for blockade) based (neither light, nor for blockade)

Contained Use Experiments

Confined Field Trials

Deliberate Release

PostRelease

Time

Regulatory decision points


Central for long-term agric. growth:Central for long-term agric. growth:Double public agric. R&D to impact povertyDouble public agric. R&D to impact poverty

CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansionas part of this expansion

And biotech as part of the public science policy strategyAnd biotech as part of the public science policy strategySource: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

R&D allocation(mil. 2005 $)

in # of

poor (mil.)2008-2020

+ Agr. output growth (% pts.)

2008-20202008* 2013SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4

Devel.ing World 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1


Agriculture must be on the climate change Agriculture must be on the climate change agenda, but how?agenda, but how?

1.1. Investment: Investment: agriculture-related investmentsagriculture-related investments, as , as part of a Global Climate Change Fund for part of a Global Climate Change Fund for technologytechnology to adapt to adapt

2.2. Incentives: C&T and carbon market may Incentives: C&T and carbon market may conflict with food security; phase in incentives conflict with food security; phase in incentives first to reduce emissions, support first to reduce emissions, support technol. technol. changechange

3.3. Information: Establish comprehensive Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring servicesinformation and monitoring services of land of land use and soils for verification baseuse and soils for verification base


Different innovation needs and (risk) Different innovation needs and (risk) preferences of poor and rich: reconcile !preferences of poor and rich: reconcile !

1. Must not compartmentalize innovation (“we do 1. Must not compartmentalize innovation (“we do not need it”! “we” / “they”?) as this stops not need it”! “we” / “they”?) as this stops innovation in it’s tracks.innovation in it’s tracks.

2. Survival and basic needs are absolute (must not 2. Survival and basic needs are absolute (must not weight against relative preferences)weight against relative preferences)

3. Solutions to overcome conflict must be found in 3. Solutions to overcome conflict must be found in the interest of the poor:the interest of the poor:

- access to technology (implicit in right to food)- access to technology (implicit in right to food)

- actively develop pro-poor technology- actively develop pro-poor technology

- access to the product benefits (not to prevent the - access to the product benefits (not to prevent the poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation if necessary)if necessary)


www.ifpri.orgwww.ifpri.org

Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes

Documents

Transcript of Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes