Food and Agriculture Issues and Research Needs
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Transcript of Food and Agriculture Issues and Research Needs
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Food and AgricultureIssues and Research Needs
Energy Climate Change Mitigation
Bruce A. McCarlDistinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
[email protected], http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl
Presented at Panel onResearch Priorities of the Food, Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environment of 2050
February 2010
Climate Change Effects & AdaptationAnimal Disease
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Climate Change the challenge
Warming
Associated with a lot more AtmosphericCO2
EmissionsRisingrapidly
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The Arapahoe Glacier in Boulder County, Colorado, has shrunk dramatically since it was photographed in 1898. Measurements collected since 1960 suggest the glacier has thinned by at least 40 meters since then.It is the ultimate source of Boulder’s main water supply. 1898 2003
http://publicearth.com/places/glaciers/araphoe-glacier
Climate Change What is going on
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Water at issue plus snow pack. 1898 2003
http://publicearth.com/places/glaciers/araphoe-glacier
Climate Change Evidence and projections
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Big consequences for ag viability – 25% less acres 10% less animals
Climate Change Evidence and projections
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Damage – Coastal
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19526141.600-huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html
If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level riseMelting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise.Collapse of the grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5-6 m
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Greenland_contribution
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential_impact_of_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh
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Climate change and future Research
Big decisions need to be made Info needed
Info typesSize and type of effects
Costs
Methods of Ag Adaptation effectiveness and type, benefits/costsdissemination methods and costs
Methods of MitigationEnergy only – ag effectsSequestration, Emission control, OffsetPolicy implementation
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On to Bioenergy
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Bioenergy – Why careScarcity and Fossil Fuel Cost
Onshore
Offshore
Global Conventional Oil Production May Peak SoonUS has as has Texas
Graph of Oil ProductionSource: Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Newsletter as in Wikapedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
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Bioenergy – Why careScarcity and Fossil Fuel Cost
Lots of Oil But recovery cost will increaseSource: International Energy Agency Resources to Reserves Report http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil_gasSUM.pdf
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Bioenergy – Why careSource of CO2 and greenhouse gasses – climate change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html
Emissions shareUS EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html
Most emissions from energy
0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
WY
2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins
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Bio Energy Research
Can it be an Alternative to fossil fuelsMethodsCostGHG implications
Market and Env implications of Ag bioenergy strategiesPotential supplyPrice effectsEnvironmental Effects
Policy Analysis and design
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On to Animal disease
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Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks January 2006 to July 2006Source: http://www.oie.int/wahis
Countries Where an FMD Outbreak Occurred in 2009 Source: http://www.oie.int/wahis
Animal Disease why care?Recent outbreaks
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Animal Disease why care?Recent outbreaks
History shows vulnerabilityUK FMD outbreak
6.25 million dead animals, loss in billions of $BSE in England
150 dead citizens, Fear and beef demandUS and Canadian BSE
Lost export marketsUS Avian Influenza events
Slaughtered animals in 10,000’s, Export market closuresAsian AI events
Animals and peopleSouth American FMD
Changed nature of beef trade
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Animal Disease Research
How do we best protect – info needed
Disease VulnerabilityEstimationCategorization of effects
Strategy development and evaluation for AnticipationPreventionDetectionResponseRecovery
Policy Analysis (protect, treat, compensation, movement etc)