Fooa Weeky Fooa Weeky INDEX - Sports Betting and Gambling News, and Vegas Odds · 2017-01-03 ·...

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

aWe’ve reached the final week of the 2016 NFL regular season already, and like usual, there is still plenty left to decide on Sunday, as several playoff positions and divisional titles will be up for grabs when all 32 teams square off in 16 different divisional matchups on Sunday. All six AFC playoff teams have been determined, but the seedings are undecided. In the NFC, the big game of the week pits Detroit and Green Bay in a NFC North title deciding contest. The Packers have won five straight games since QB Aaron Rodgers

claimed he thought his team could “run the table”, defying the odds at that time. Washington is also in a big game, against the Giants, who have already clinched a wild card spot. The Redskins need to win to pass the loser of the Packers/Lions game for the final NFC position.

In any case, we at the Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication are ready to tackle all of the games. In this Issue #18 of the VIFW, we will cover the final set of bowl games, plus the season finales in the NFL. The final 20 bowl game start on Wednesday and are jam-packed into five different days, wrapping up on Tuesday. The highlight of those games is the New Year’6 group of bowls. Those are the premier contests on the college football bowl schedule each season, and they include the two college football playoff semifinal contests. Because of the enormity of those games, we have dedicated our feature article of the week to handicapping those six clashes. We have uncovered numerous different betting angles for the New Year’s 6 games, some of which will probably surprise you, and could even change the way you are leaning on them at this point. Be sure to not overlook that piece.

Our guys did well again on Best Bets, combining for a record of 5-3-2 ATS in college and 6-3 ATS in the pro’s. Collectively, the group is now up to 25 games over .500 for the season (59.4%) in the NFL and 19 games over .500 for the season (56.9%) in college. Our leaders continue to be VI Doug in the NFL, off another 2-1 ATS week, and VI Jim in college, already 4-1 ATS in bowl Best Bets. Hopefully the guys keep up the pace the rest of the way and can guide you to a huge postseason.

Thanks for your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. We wish you & your families a very Happy & Prosperous New Year!

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule .........................................................................................2

NFL VI Picks ......................................................................................................3

NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown .........................................................4

NFL Top Weekly Trends ...................................................................................5

NFL Strength Ratings ......................................................................................6

NFL Matchups .................................................................................................7

Football Line Moves .....................................................................................13

College Football VI Picks .............................................................................17

Bowl Game Matchups ................................................................................18

New Year’s Six Bowl Game Trends .............................................................34

The Tip Sheet Season Pass runs through Febraury 2017, so you’ll be covered for the entire Regular Season and Playoffs.

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weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 18NFL Week 17

College Football Week 3 Bowl Games

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE313 DALLAS 45 44

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 243 NORTHWESTERN 68 65.5 263 NEBRASKA 61 60.5 314 PHILADELPHIA 3.5 -4

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN 315 CHICAGO 40 41244 PITTSBURGH -4 -5.5 264 TENNESSEE -3.5 -4 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

316 MINNESOTA -6.5 -5317 CAROLINA 47.5 46.5

245 WEST VIRGINIA 56.5 57 265 FLORIDA ST 58 52.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 318 TAMPA BAY -3.5 -6.5

246 MIAMI FL -1.5 -2.5 266 MICHIGAN -7 -7 319 CLEVELAND 45.5 44P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

320 PITTSBURGH -13 -7247 INDIANA 54 54.5 321 NEW ORLEANS 56 56

P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM FOX P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 248 UTAH -8 -7 267 LSU -2.5 -3 322 ATLANTA -6.5 -6.5

P: 8:00AM C: 10:00AM E: 11:00AM ABC 323 NEW ENGLAND -6 -9.5268 LOUISVILLE 59.5 59.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

249 KANSAS ST 58 58 324 MIAMI 44.5 44.5P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN 325 ARIZONA -7.5 -6

250 TEXAS A&M -2.5 -2.5 269 KENTUCKY 60 61.5 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM P: 8:00AM C: 10:00AM E: 11:00AM ESPN 326 LOS ANGELES 41.5 41

270 GEORGIA TECH -4.5 -3 327 KANSAS CITY -4.5 -5.5P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

LEGION FIELD - BIRMINGHAM, AL 328 SAN DIEGO 45 44.5251 SOUTH FLORIDA -11 -10 271 WASHINGTON 58 54 329 SEATTLE -9 -9.5

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM ESPN P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 252 SOUTH CAROLINA 63 62 272 ALABAMA -15 -15 330 SAN FRANCISCO 44.5 43

331 OAKLAND 40 40P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

253 ARKANSAS 62 61 273 OHIO ST -3.5 -3 332 DENVER -3.5 -2P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN

254 VIRGINIA TECH -6.5 -7 274 CLEMSON 61.5 59.5

255 OKLAHOMA ST 64 62 275 IOWA 40.5 40.5P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN 301 HOUSTON 41 40 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ABC

256 COLORADO -2.5 -3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 276 FLORIDA -2 -3302 TENNESSEE -3 -3303 BUFFALO -5 -3.5

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 277 W MICHIGAN 54 53.5304 NY JETS 45 42 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN

257 TCU 49 48 305 BALTIMORE 41.5 41.5 278 WISCONSIN -7.5 -7.5P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

258 GEORGIA 0 0 306 CINCINNATI -2.5 -2.5307 NY GIANTS 44 44 279 USC -6.5 -6.5

P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN259 NORTH CAROLINA 54 54 308 WASHINGTON -5 -5 280 PENN ST 60 60.5

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM CBS 309 GREEN BAY -3 -3260 STANFORD -3 -2.5 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC

310 DETROIT 48 48 281 AUBURN 64 63311 JACKSONVILLE 48.5 47.5 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

261 S ALABAMA 57.5 57 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 282 OKLAHOMA -6 -3P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM 312 INDIANAPOLIS -7 -4.5

262 AIR FORCE -13 -14 313 DALLAS 45 44P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

314 PHILADELPHIA 3.5 -4

SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LA

COTTON BOWL AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX

ROSE BOWL ROSE BOWL - PASADENA, CA

SUGAR BOWL

MONDAY, JANUARY 2, 2017OUTBACK BOWL

RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM - TAMPA, FL SUNDAY, JANUARY 1, 2017

SUN BOWL SUN BOWL STADIUM - EL PASO, TX

ARIZONA BOWL ARIZONA STADIUM - TUSCON, AZ

CITRUS BOWL

TAXSLAYER BOWL EVERBANK FIELD - JACKSONVILLE, FL

CAMPING WORLD STADIUM - ORLANDO, FL

NRG STADIUM - HOUSTON, TX

PINSTRIPE BOWL YANKEE STADIUM - BRONX, NY

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES COLLEGE BOWL GAMES cont'd

ORANGE BOWL

MUSIC CITY BOWL NISSAN STADIUM - NASHVILLE, TN

HARD ROCK STADIUM - MIAMI GARDENS, FL

SATURDAY,DECEMBER 31, 2016

CAMPING WORLD STADIUM - ORLANDO, FL

LEVI'S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CA FOSTER FARMS BOWL

TEXAS BOWL

NFL WEEK 17 cont'dFRIDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2016WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2016 SUNDAY, JANUARY 1, 2017

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2016 BIRMINGHAM BOWL PEACH BOWL

GEORGIA DOME - ATLANTA, FL

BELK BOWL BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC

FIESTA BOWL U OF PHOENIX STADIUM - GLENDALE AZ

LIBERTY BOWL LIBERTY BOWL - MEMPHIS, TN

NFL WEEK 17ALAMO BOWL

ALAMODOME - SAN ANTONIO, TX

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2017


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VI Jim says…On my picks on the website last week, I listed several of the definitive angles that Mike McCarthy teams have developed in his tenure at Green Bay. Among them, his teams have been great in divisional play (44-23 ATS), they’ve been great in late season games (27-16 ATS in L4 weeks of regular season), and great as favorites (77-51 ATS). Those trends all converge as the Packers go for the division title in Detroit. Everything over the last two months of Green Bay’s resurgence has pointed to this game. They are playing well. Detroit is not, and at this point it certainly looks like the Lions could be staring at another late season meltdown that kept them from the playoffs. In my opinion, they have to be seriously watching the Redskins-Giants game earlier in the day in the hopes that the latter will win and give Detroit a playoff spot. This is one of those games that the ‘books hate because they can put a realistic line on it. Green Bay finishes running the table.

VI Jason says…For as excited as fans of Los Angeles were to get their team back for the 2016 season, I’m sure at this point that they are just hoping mercifully for the end of the season. It has been painful for the Rams franchise, and nothing epitomized it more than the meltdown at home last week to the even more pitiful 49ers, allowing a Colin Kaepernick quarterbacked team to score two TD’s and a 2-point conversion in the game’s final six minutes. Now, the Rams close it out against an Arizona team that is probably equally frustrated with how its season has gone. That said, coaches like Bruce Arians preach momentum and how wins can carry over into the offseason. The Cardinals put on a dynamic and impressive performance at Seattle last week. Unfortunately its too little too late, but this offense seems to be hitting stride again. Los Angeles simply can’t say that, and that will be the difference in this one. Arizona wins big.

VI Doug says…Tampa Bay had two very difficult games against Dallas and New Orleans the last two weeks and both were in negative situations for the Buccaneers. If you read or watched news about the Bucs defeat to the Saints, not one player talked about losing, rather being wholly committed to winning this week to keep slim playoff hopes alive and finishing with first winning season since 2010. Also fresh on each Tampa Bay’s players’ mind in closing out last year with four consecutive losses and not wanting repeat of that failure. After a couple of good performances, Carolina was totally mentally and physically unprepared for home final with Atlanta got what they deserved. That is a steep fall from playing in Super Bowl to last in division and cannot think of a reason why the Panthers come to play other than picking up game check. Tampa Bay by 11.

VI Jim 89-65 (58%) 20-24 (45%)*

VI Jason 95-59 (62%) 28-16 (62%)*

VI Doug 87-67 (56%) 31-14 (69%)*

Power Ratings70-84 (45%)

Effective Strength 72-82 (47%)

Forecaster 68-86 (44%)

Bettors Ratings 71-83 (46%)

Consensus 80-74 (52%)

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (309) GREEN BAY at (310) DETROIT (+3)Green

Bay*

Green

Bay*

Green

Bay

Detroit Detroit Detroit Detroit Detroit

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (309) GREEN BAY at (310) DETROIT- TOTAL (48)UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (311) JACKSONVILLE at (302) INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5)Jacksonville Jacksonville Indianapolis* Indianapolis Indianapolis Jacksonville Indianapolis Indianapolis

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (311) JACKSONVILLE at (302) INDIANAPOLIS - TOTAL (47.5)UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (317) CAROLINA at (318) TAMPA BAY (-6.5)Carolina* Carolina Tampa

Bay*

Carolina Carolina Carolina Carolina Carolina

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (317) CAROLINA at (318) TAMPA BAY - TOTAL (46.5)OVER OVER* OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (321) NEW ORLEANS at (322) ATLANTA (-6.5)Atlanta* New

Orleans

Atlanta* Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta New

Orleans

Atlanta

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (321) NEW ORLEANS at (322) ATLANTA - TOTAL (56)UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (325) ARIZONA at (326) LOS ANGELES (+6)Arizona Arizona* Arizona Arizona Arizona Los

Angeles

Los

Angeles

Arizona

Sunday, January 1, 2017 - (325) ARIZONA at (326) LOS ANGELES - TOTAL (41)OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

JANUARY 1, 2017(301) HOUSTON at (302) TENNESSEEThis was supposed to be big game in the AFC South and from wagering perspective, this is complete domination by Houston. The Texans have covered six in row, the last five as favorites and are 10-1 ATS since Oct. 2011. With those favorite wins, the underdog is only 2-7 ATS in the last nine. These rivals have never had a total over 48, yet the Over is on 9-3 binge.

(303) BUFFALO at (304) N.Y. JETSThe Jets have not swept Buffalo since 2011 and have not covered against the Bills in the same season since year prior. New York will out to make that happen on both fronts after earlier 37-31 win as one point road underdogs. Gang Green is 3-6 ATS in the years ahead and underdog are 5-1 ATS, which includes covering the past three. Mark the Over for 7-3 in the last 10.

(305) BALTIMORE at (306) CINCINNATIDid Baltimore winning back in November as a favorite signify the latest run in this confrontation? If you drop the Push in 2011 and go back to last year’s matchup, the underdog is was 4-0, 0-4 and 4-0, all against spread. The Ravens have covered the past two and are sporting 0-4 ATS mark against Cincinnati. The total is as close as it can be in last dozen encounters at 6-6.

(307) N.Y. GIANTS at (308) WASHINGTONThis NFC East rivalry has roots which date back to 1932. Looking back to 2005, only once has either not beat the spread at least in two consecutive, like what Washington is on right now. This back and forth has created a bit a guessing game and not many clues with fave/dog squared at 4-4 ATS and home/road deadlocked at 5-5 ATS. Even the total has alternated the last six in Under/Over sequence.

(309) GREEN BAY at (310) DETROITThis sets as winner takes all in the NFC North. Watch closely for the favorite, who is on substantial 8-1 ATS move. In those nine contests Green Bay has picked up six winners, with Detroit having three. With this more often than not the home team handing out points, the underdog is 3-7 ATS of late. Higher scores have prevailed in four of past six.

(311) JACKSONVILLE at (312) INDIANAPOLISNot much spice in this AFC South contest in the final game of the year. Jacksonville holds a 6-5 ATS edge and done so in unusual fashion. The Jaguars have book-ended Indianapolis versus the number at 3-0, 0-5 and 3-0. The conflict earlier this year was a Pick,

however, prior to that the favorite was 8-2 ATS. The first game was in England, but previously to that the road/home is on six covers in a row. The total has been halved in the last six.

(313) DALLAS at (314) PHILADELPHIASince early in the year, these rivals have been heading in opposite directions both on standings and at the pay window. Dallas is 6-3 ATS since being swept against the oddsmakers in three straight contests. The underdog has failed to cash the past two after assembling a 6-0 ATS roll. No idea if Cowboys will rest regulars, but do know the visitor is 8-2 ATS of late. The last 10 totals are deadlocked at 5-5.

(315) CHICAGO at (316) MINNESOTAA disheartening campaign for Minnesota, that disintegrated rather swiftly. Among the heartache was loss at Chicago, which dropped the Vikings to 5-3 ATS against the Bears. Chicago will attempt to raise away team’s record to 4-6 ATS. Minnesota will be the favorite even if the Bears have covered several spreads in the second half and the fave is 5-3-1 ATS. Not many points with the Under 8-2 lately.

(317) CAROLINA at (318) TAMPA BAYTampa Bay is trying to find way to the postseason and they are 4-5 ATS against Carolina. One aspect of history is not in their favor with the road club at 6-3 ATS in recent battles. We have noticed a downturn in points scored with the Under 4-2. Whomever has been the favored squad has not mattered much with a record of 4-4-1 against the spread.

(319) CLEVELAND at (320) PITTSBURGHWith Cleveland getting first win of the season last week, they can focus full attention on Pittsburgh. The Browns are 2-6 ATS versus the biggest rival. The Steelers of course will be favored and even if they are in the playoffs next week, they will not want to lose. The favorite has covered four in row and five of six and the Under is on 9-2 tear.

(321) NEW ORLEANS at (322) ATLANTAThis is crazy NFC South skirmish which finds the underdog at robust 12-3 ATS. In that span of time, there has been quite a bit of back and forth which is why the total why Atlanta only has slim 8-7 ATS edge. The home team has dropped two straight against the spread after 6-1 ATS move. When you think of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan offense comes to mind, yet these teams are 6-2 Under.

(323) NEW ENGLAND at (324) MIAMIMiami would love to see recent trend continue and that is the home team build on 8-0 ATS mark. The underdog has not seen a lot of success is having 2-6 ATS record in their past eight tries. New England has a 5-3 ATS margin, having been a favorite of eight or more points half the time. The Under clocks in at 6-3 since 2012.

(325) ARIZONA at (326) LOS ANGELESLos Angeles’ first year in its new surroundings did not go well, but one victory came at the expense of Arizona, winning 17-13 as 10-point road underdogs. That Rams win made the away crew 4-0 ATS and 6-2 ATS in the latest forays on the gridiron. That setback was odd for the Cardinals who arrived at that game 5-1 vs. the team formerly from St. Louis.

(327) KANSAS CITY at (328) SAN DIEGOThese AFC West partners have not faced off since opening day. That was a precursor for the entire season, with San Diego blowing lead and Kansas

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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(323) NEW ENGLAND AT (324) MIAMINEW ENGLAND is 26-9-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per play(CS)( $1610 Profit with a 39.6% ROI )

(307) NY GIANTS AT (308) WASHINGTONNY GIANTS is 37-14-3 ATS(L54G) on ROAD - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(CS)( $2160 Profit with a 36.4% ROI )

(321) NEW ORLEANS AT (322) ATLANTANEW ORLEANS is 20-5 ATS(L25G) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 27 PPG or more(CS)( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

39.6% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY ON

36.4% ROI

52.7% ROI

(303) BUFFALO AT (304) NY JETSBUFFALO is 32-17-1 OVER(L50G) - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9 yards per attempt(CS)( $1330 Profit with a 24.2% ROI )

(309) GREEN BAY AT (310) DETROITDETROIT is 17-4 OVER(L21G) at HOME - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards per attempt(CS)( $1260 Profit with a 54.6% ROI )

(309) GREEN BAY AT (310) DETROITGREEN BAY is 33-17 OVER(L50G) on ROAD - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9 yards per attempt(CS)( $1430 Profit with a 26.0% ROI )

24.2% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

54.6% ROI

26.0% ROI

(319) CLEVELAND AT (320) PITTSBURGHCLEVELAND is 5-20 ATS(L25G) - All Games( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(301) HOUSTON AT (302) TENNESSEETENNESSEE is 5-22-2 ATS(L5Y) - VS AFC-SOUTH( $1650 Profit with a 51.7% ROI )

(329) SEATTLE AT (330) SAN FRANCISCO

SAN FRANCISCO is 5-19-1 ATS(L25G)

- Against decent offensive teams

averaging more than 5.6 yards per

play(CS)

( $1350 Profit with a 49.1% ROI )

52.7% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

51.7% ROI

49.1% ROI

(311) JACKSONVILLE AT (312) INDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLIS is 30-14 UNDER(L44G) at HOME - VS AFC-SOUTH( $1460 Profit with a 30.2% ROI )

(315) CHICAGO AT (316) MINNESOTAMINNESOTA is 31-16-1 UNDER(L3Y) - All Games( $1340 Profit with a 25.4% ROI )

(325) ARIZONA AT (326) LA RAMSLA RAMS is 33-16-1 UNDER(L50G) - VS NFC-WEST( $1540 Profit with a 28.0% ROI )

30.2% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

25.4% ROI

28.0% ROI

NFL FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS

City finding a way to escape in OT. The Chargers did beat the spread that day, making it two straight, in a series that has featured runs of two to four over the last 11 connections. The visitor is 6-2 ATS and the pooch is 5-2 ATS.

(329) SEATTLE at (330) SAN FRANCISCONot exactly idea opponent for San Francisco who only beaten Los Angeles this season. Seattle is on an unfathomable 11-0 ATS run-off (8-3 SU) over the 49ers. On seven occasions, the Seahawks got the cash by when the sportsbooks placed them in

the favorites role. With the Niners not capable of playing strong defense these days, the Over has been right position after 7-2 Under period.

(331) OAKLAND at (332) DENVEROakland has won and covered the spread in the past two battles and that closed out Denver’s domination stretch of 8-0 and 7-0-1 ATS. The Raiders are trying to hunt down a division title and the away club is 7-3-1 ATS. Oakland’s earlier victory was a Pick, otherwise, the fave is 6-1-1 ATS. The total is split down the middle in the past 10 tussles.

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied

schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?301 HOUSTON 40 22.0 19.5 19.7 19.3 302 TENNESSEE -3 24.0 -0.6 20.6 20.1 21.5 303 BUFFALO -3.5 23.0 28.2 BUF 23.4 22.8 304 NY JETS 42 15.0 5.5 19.4 OVER 20.8 18.6 305 BALTIMORE 41.5 26.0 20.8 20.1 22.0 306 CINCINNATI -2.5 22.0 1.3 21.3 22.2 20.6 307 NY GIANTS 44 25.0 17.6 17.6 18.9 308 WASHINGTON -5 26.0 -7.8 25.5 25.6 27.7 309 GREEN BAY -3 27.5 24.9 24.4 25.2 310 DETROIT 48 24.0 1.1 23.7 23.6 25.6 311 JACKSONVILLE 47.5 20.0 20.0 23.2 21.8 312 INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 24.0 -6.8 29.2 IND 26.2 28.6 313 DALLAS 44 29.5 20.5 19.4 22.8 314 PHILADELPHIA -4 23.5 -1.5 22.7 23.1 24.3 315 CHICAGO 41 19.5 16.7 18.2 14.5 316 MINNESOTA -5 23.0 -5.9 24.4 23.4 22.6 317 CAROLINA 46.5 24.0 21.0 21.5 19.6 318 TAMPA BAY -6.5 25.0 -3.4 24.1 24.0 24.0 319 CLEVELAND 44 15.5 16.1 19.3 18.6 320 PITTSBURGH -7 28.5 -8.4 27.7 PIT 25.2 26.9 321 NEW ORLEANS 56 25.0 23.2 24.5 25.9 322 ATLANTA -6.5 29.5 -7.3 33.4 31.0 30.5 323 NEW ENGLAND -9.5 31.0 30.2 NE 27.1 26.5 324 MIAMI 44.5 25.5 8.8 13.6 16.1 16.9 325 ARIZONA -6 24.5 24.5 22.8 21.7 326 LOS ANGELES 41 15.0 6.8 18.2 18.3 17.9 327 KANSAS CITY -5.5 28.0 23.5 21.8 22.5 328 SAN DIEGO 44.5 21.5 4.0 21.9 21.3 SD 21.8 SD 329 SEATTLE -9.5 28.0 27.8 24.7 27.1 330 SAN FRANCISCO 43 16.5 8.9 16.0 19.5 16.5 331 OAKLAND 40 27.5 17.9 17.7 16.3 332 DENVER -2 25.0 -4.3 23.2 22.4 24.0 DEN

VEGASINSIDER NFL STRENGTH RATINGS


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(301) HOUSTON [SU:9-6 | ATS:6-8-1] AT (302) TENNESSEE (-3 | 40) [SU:8-7 | ATS:6-9]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - NISSAN STADIUM (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON 17.5 19 29-121 [4.2] 36-21-196 [5.5] 18.1 20.3 17 25-99 [4.1] 33-20-206 [6.2] 15.0 -7 -2.8 TENNESSEE 23.8 20 30-139 [4.7] 32-19-227 [7.1] 15.4 24.1 20 22-91 [4.1] 39-24-271 [6.9] 15.0 0 -0.3

Tennessee lost quite a bit in unlikely upset in Jacksonville. The Titans figured to be playing for AFC South crown, but never came close to looking like Kronos and were routed by the Jaguars. The depressing situation was made worse by QB Marcus Mariota breaking leg. Tennessee will at least have a little motivation, playing for first winning season in five years. Houston somehow beat Cincinnati to win their division for a second straight year. From that win, three things emerged: the defense is playing well, the Texans need Lamar Miller at running back and QB Tom Savage plays better at faster pace. Not sure how hard Houston will play with playoff game next, adding to wagering mystery.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 8-2-1 ATS(L2Y) - division games• TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS(L3Y) - division games• TENNESSEE is 10-1 OVER(L2Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per

point(CS)

(303) BUFFALO (-5.5 | 44.5) [SU:7-8 | ATS:6-8-1] AT (304) NY JETS [SU:4-11 | ATS:5-8-2]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 25.9 21 31-171 [5.5] 30-18-192 [6.5] 14.0 23.2 21 29-134 [4.6] 32-19-225 [7.0] 15.5 +9 +2.7 NY JETS 16.3 18 26-112 [4.3] 35-19-218 [6.3] 20.2 26.6 20 27-101 [3.8] 34-22-249 [7.3] 13.2 -23 -10.3

Though the Jets running game is hardly distinguished, it seems rather apparent what the game plan should be against Buffalo. The Bills have permitted 186 YPG on the ground in their last five weeks. If New York even shows a pulse, which is a talking point after bad losses to Miami and New England, they should move the ball on the ground against the Bills. However, New York is 13-30 ATS off a road loss against a division rival. Buffalo will officially miss the playoffs for a 17th consecutive year. Rex Ryan’s time as defense guru is over as his schemes are beatable unless he has Pro Bowl talent as all three levels. The Bills are 12-2 OVER as favorites.

GAME TRENDS• BUFFALO is 9-3-2 ATS(L3Y) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• NY JETS is 14-33-3 ATS(L50G) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• BUFFALO is 12-2 OVER(L2Y) - As favorite

(305) BALTIMORE [SU:8-7 | ATS:7-7-1] AT (306) CINCINNATI (-2.5 | 41.5) [SU:5-9-1 | ATS:5-9-1]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BALTIMORE 22.2 20 23-93 [4.0] 42-27-256 [6.1] 15.7 19.6 18 23-85 [3.7] 37-23-234 [6.4] 16.3 +7 +2.6 CINCINNATI 19.9 21 27-108 [4.0] 36-23-248 [7.0] 17.9 20.3 20 26-116 [4.4] 36-23-236 [6.5] 17.3 +1 -0.4

Though Baltimore shows up statistically as a Top 5 defense, a quick check of the numbers finds the Ravens permitted 26 or more points in four of last six games, which ends up being among the reasons the John Harbaugh’s team plays final game this week. Baltimore is not a bad team, rather one that needs more playmakers. The Ravens are 2-5 and 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season. After defeating Jets in season opener 23-22, the Cincinnati never won another one-score game. The Bengals were 0-5-1 SU and 1-5 ATS in games decided by six points or less. For both these clubs, pride is the only reason to play this finale and whoever wants it more should be your winner.

GAME TRENDS• BALTIMORE is 8-2-1 ATS(L2Y) - division games• CINCINNATI is 3-11 ATS(L14G) - In January• CINCINNATI is 9-3 UNDER(L2Y) - division games

NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



8




(307) NY GIANTS [SU:10-5 | ATS:7-6-2] AT (308) WASHINGTON (-8 | 44) [SU:8-6-1 | ATS:10-5]JANUARY 1, 2017 4:25 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 19.4 18 24-83 [3.5] 38-24-247 [6.5] 17.0 18.3 19 25-92 [3.6] 40-23-251 [6.3] 18.7 -5 +1.1 WASHINGTON 25.7 22 24-111 [4.6] 38-26-301 [7.9] 16.0 24.3 23 26-117 [4.6] 37-25-264 [7.0] 15.7 +3 +1.4

The New York Giants have secured the top Wild Card spot in the NFC and the expectations are they will sit several injured or banged up players in anticipation of playoff game. Though not injured, Eli Manning will probably start to keep consecutive starting streak going and not much more. Washington has to win this game and gets some help to be the other wild card club. The earlier tie against Cincinnati could help or haunt the Redskins, but suffice to say that Carolina Monday night lack of effort will stand out if they fail to reach postseason. One would surmise Washington will come out with purpose early and try to sock this one away and let the chips fall where they may.

GAME TRENDS• NY GIANTS is 19-4-1 ATS(L24G) on ROAD - Against big play passing teams averaging more than

7.5 yards per attempt(CS)• WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• WASHINGTON is 19-6 OVER(L25G) - All Games

(309) GREEN BAY (-3.5 | 48) [SU:9-6 | ATS:8-6-1] AT (310) DETROIT [SU:9-6 | ATS:7-7-1]JANUARY 1, 2017 8:30 PM on NBC - FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GREEN BAY 26.7 21 23-103 [4.5] 39-25-260 [6.7] 13.6 24.3 20 24-96 [4.1] 35-23-265 [7.5] 14.9 +7 +2.4 DETROIT 21.5 20 22-82 [3.8] 37-24-252 [6.8] 15.5 21.8 20 24-103 [4.3] 34-25-245 [7.2] 16.0 0 -0.3

With Green Bay at 4-6 and losers of four in a row, the season by most observers was “over”. But Aaron Rodgers did not think so and teammates bought in and now the Packers are one win away from winning the NFC North, which was improbable almost six weeks ago. Green Bay has the offensive talent to win, but can they cover up for abysmal secondary? Detroit played a great half against Dallas, but their offense was shutdown and now they will have to contend with one of the hottest QB’s in the league in Rodgers. Unless Washington somehow manages to lose, this is winner takes all for the playoffs with loser staying home.

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 10-3 ATS(L13G) on ROAD - In January• DETROIT is 17-4 OVER(L21G) at HOME - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25

yards per attempt(CS)• GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inept defensive teams yielding more than 5.9

yards per play(CS)

(311) JACKSONVILLE [SU:3-12 | ATS:7-8] AT (312) INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 | 47.5) [SU:7-8 | ATS:7-7-1]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - LUCAS OIL STADIUM (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 19.9 20 24-97 [4.0] 39-23-229 [5.9] 16.4 25.1 19 28-107 [3.8] 34-21-210 [6.2] 12.6 -16 -5.2 INDIANAPOLIS 25.8 22 26-102 [4.0] 36-23-261 [7.2] 14.1 24.8 22 25-116 [4.6] 36-23-261 [7.2] 15.2 -5 +1.0

For one week, Jacksonville put it all together in stunning blowout of Tennessee. Who the next Jaguars next head coach will be will play out over time and what he will be looking to set the standard by will be how Jacksonville just played. Good wins seldom have follow up performances for the Jags who are 6-16 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more. Andrew Luck blamed himself for costing Indianapolis chance at the postseason, yet the truth is they only even had a chance because he carried them in spite lackluster defense and offensive line that was pedestrian at best. The Colts are 4-13 ATS at home revenging a loss by seven points or less.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4

yards per point(CS)• JACKSONVILLE is 1-9-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4

yards per carry(CS)• INDIANAPOLIS is 9-2 UNDER(L11G) at HOME - Week #17 of the season




NFL MATCHUPS


9


(313) DALLAS [SU:13-2 | ATS:10-5] AT (314) PHILADELPHIA (-4 | 44) [SU:6-9 | ATS:7-8]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DALLAS 27.2 23 32-155 [4.9] 30-21-234 [7.7] 14.3 18.6 20 21-81 [3.9] 39-27-262 [6.7] 18.4 +7 +8.6 PHILADELPHIA 22.7 21 27-113 [4.2] 38-24-224 [5.9] 14.8 21.2 19 25-106 [4.3] 35-21-247 [7.1] 16.7 +4 +1.5

Though coach Doug Pederson has his critics (here among other locations), he deserves his due, with Philadelphia players almost winning last two games versus teams fighting for the playoffs and covering twice, after going through 2-8 SU and ATS spell. Losing Ryan Mathews will curtail running game, nonetheless, the Eagles desire to win figures to be much higher the Cowboys. Dallas came out flat defensively against Detroit on Monday, but after DC Rod Marinelli made brilliant defensive move, the Cowboys responded and ran away. Speculation here, but trying to read between the lines, Dallas might start regulars and begin peeling them off a little at time at Philadelphia making this a hard game to bet on.

GAME TRENDS• DALLAS is 14-2 ATS(L3Y) - On grass field• PHILADELPHIA is 1-11 ATS(L5Y) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles• DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games

(315) CHICAGO [SU:3-12 | ATS:7-8] AT (316) MINNESOTA (-5 | 41) [SU:7-8 | ATS:8-7]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - US BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHICAGO 17.9 20 23-103 [4.5] 36-22-255 [7.1] 20.0 24.1 20 28-122 [4.4] 33-21-223 [6.8] 14.3 -16 -6.2 MINNESOTA 19.3 19 23-72 [3.1] 37-26-239 [6.5] 16.1 19.8 19 24-102 [4.2] 35-21-212 [6.0] 15.9 +7 -0.5

Any wonders why Matt Barkley has not been a successful NFL quarterback have been answered. Despite showing well at times, Barkley now has 12 interceptions in six games, placing him in the rarified air of ball security for Chicago quarterbacks. Off Washington thrashing, the Bears are 8-0 ATS after three or more consecutive losses since 2014. Minnesota is the sixth team in the past 26 years to miss the playoffs after a 5-0 start. No question the Vikings offense was depleted by injuries, but the replacements were not close to good enough, which included Sam Bradford. Minnesota might be 12-4 ATS at home the last two years, but are they even listening to coach Mike Zimmer anymore?

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards

per point(CS)• CHICAGO is 3-9 ATS(L3Y) - More than 6 days rest• MINNESOTA is 12-3-1 UNDER(L16G) - In January

(317) CAROLINA [SU:6-9 | ATS:5-9-1] AT (318) TAMPA BAY (-6.5 | 46.5) [SU:8-7 | ATS:9-6]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 23.5 20 28-112 [4.0] 35-19-232 [6.5] 14.6 25.7 21 23-90 [3.9] 38-26-274 [7.1] 14.2 -1 -2.2 TAMPA BAY 22.5 21 29-100 [3.5] 36-22-249 [6.9] 15.5 23.5 21 26-116 [4.4] 34-22-254 [7.4] 15.7 +1 -1.0

If Carolina did not care enough to come to play at home against division opponent, who was going to take away their division crown, why would they bother to care about playing on the road in Tampa Bay? FOX TV analysts quickly spotted why Cam Newton was throwing poorly against Atlanta, and it was lack of fundamentals with his feet. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS off a home loss since 2014. Tampa Bay is getting better and will need to add pieces to become playoff team next season. The Buccaneers still have the slightest of chances to make it this postseason and after the setback at New Orleans, the Bucs players said to a man ending season on three-game losing streak was “unacceptable”.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points• TAMPA BAY is 3-10 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6

yards per play(CS)• CAROLINA is 14-2 OVER(L3Y) on ROAD - Against decent passing teams averaging more than

6.8 yards per attempt(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS

10




(319) CLEVELAND [SU:1-14 | ATS:3-12] AT (320) PITTSBURGH (-7 | 44) [SU:10-5 | ATS:9-6]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 16.0 18 21-99 [4.7] 35-21-204 [5.8] 18.9 28.3 23 31-148 [4.7] 34-22-250 [7.4] 14.1 -9 -12.3PITTSBURGH 24.8 21 25-113 [4.4] 37-24-264 [7.1] 15.2 20.2 19 22-91 [4.1] 37-23-245 [6.7] 16.6 +2 +4.6

The burden has been removed for Cleveland, as they will not become the second team to have winless 0-16 season. After joyous win over San Diego, the Browns will look to enter 2017 season on a winning streak, defeating their biggest rivals. There is no reason to think Cleveland can win being 0-7 (2-5 ATS) on the road and wondering yet again who the starting QB will be after Robert Griffin III left with concussion. Pittsburgh won the AFC North thanks to the duo of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, which has played out so many times over the last several seasons. With these two, the Steelers can never be counted out and Pitt is 21-2 and 15-8 ATS hosting Cleveland.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS(L2Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS(L2Y) - division games• PITTSBURGH is 10-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5

PPG(CS)

(321) NEW ORLEANS [SU:7-8 | ATS:9-5-1] AT (322) ATLANTA (-6.5 | 56) [SU:10-5 | ATS:10-5]JANUARY 1, 2017 4:25 PM on FOX - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 29.1 25 25-107 [4.2] 42-30-316 [7.6] 14.5 27.7 22 25-99 [4.0] 36-23-270 [7.4] 13.3 -2 +1.4 ATLANTA 33.5 24 27-119 [4.5] 33-23-293 [8.8] 12.3 24.9 22 23-103 [4.4] 40-26-262 [6.5] 14.7 +10 +8.6

New Orleans was one game removed from arguably their worst offensive showing of the season in Tampa Bay and with only 13 days in between, the Saints players wanted redemption and got it over the Buccaneers. New Orleans definitely does not want to finish 7-9 for a third straight year and if they can knock Atlanta out 2-seed in the NFC, they will take it. The Saints are underdogs and the pooch is 14-3 in this battle. Atlanta will be looking to lock up the 2-seed with a victory with underappreciated club. The Falcons average NFL-best 33.5 PPG and are second in the league in point differential. They beat the Saints and come out healthy, this is treacherous group.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 13.5 yards

per point(CS)• ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5

PPG(CS)• ATLANTA is 11-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 13.35 yards per

point(CS)

(323) NEW ENGLAND (-9.5 | 44.5) [SU:13-2 | ATS:12-3] AT (324) MIAMI [SU:10-5 | ATS:8-5-2]JANUARY 1, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - HARD ROCK STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ENGLAND 27.1 22 30-117 [3.9] 34-23-269 [7.8] 14.2 15.7 19 23-89 [3.9] 37-23-240 [6.4] 21.0 +10 +11.4 MIAMI 23.3 17 25-117 [4.6] 30-19-220 [7.4] 14.5 23.0 22 29-142 [4.9] 37-23-240 [6.5] 16.6 +4 +0.3

After 1-4 start, the odds were rather long for Miami to even having winning season, especially with rookie head coach. Adam Gase did not blink and fine-tuned the offense to fit strong offensive line when healthy and some player named Jay Ajayi who only became the fourth RB to have a trio of 200+ yards rushing games. The Dolphins are in the playoffs for first time in eight years and it is anyone’s guess how Gase will use personnel with playoffs up next. The home team has covered eight straight in series. New England is still trying to lock down No.1 seed in the AFC and is not known for resting players anyways. Expect the Patriots to be ready to perform.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards

per play(CS)• MIAMI is 4-9 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per

attempt(CS)• MIAMI is 11-3 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per

carry(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


11


(325) ARIZONA (-6 | 41) [SU:6-8-1 | ATS:5-10] AT (326) LA RAMS [SU:4-11 | ATS:4-9-2]JANUARY 1, 2017 4:25 PM on FOX - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA 24.9 23 25-110 [4.4] 40-24-258 [6.4] 14.8 23.7 19 27-98 [3.6] 35-22-220 [6.3] 13.4 -1 +1.2 LA RAMS 14.5 16 24-80 [3.4] 34-20-192 [5.7] 18.8 23.3 20 27-105 [3.9] 36-24-231 [6.4] 14.4 -10 -8.8

Kudos to Arizona, being the more prepared team in Seattle and after giving away big lead, having clutch drive to win game. Maybe Carson Palmer is no longer the answer at QB for the Cardinals, but continuing to build offense around RB David Johnson makes all the sense in the world and Los Angeles should see a healthy dose of what is regarded as the best all-around back in the NFL. Arizona is 11-6 and 12-5 ATS wherever the Rams have called home in the past 23 years. Los Angeles had a 14-point lead on San Francisco in the fourth quarter at home and still lost. This does not bode well for season finale.

GAME TRENDS• LA RAMS is 9-2-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards

per carry(CS)• ARIZONA is 6-15 ATS(L21G) on ROAD - Against pathetic-scoring teams averaging 15 PPG or

less(CS)• LA RAMS is 19-6 UNDER(L25G) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.2 yards per

play(CS)

(327) KANSAS CITY (-5.5 | 44.5) [SU:11-4 | ATS:8-6-1] AT (328) SAN DIEGO [SU:5-10 | ATS:7-8]JANUARY 1, 2017 4:25 PM on CBS - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY 23.5 19 25-110 [4.3] 35-23-232 [6.7] 14.6 18.9 21 27-121 [4.4] 37-22-246 [6.6] 19.4 +15 +4.6 SAN DIEGO 25.5 21 25-92 [3.7] 36-22-262 [7.2] 13.9 25.7 20 25-98 [3.9] 37-23-248 [6.7] 13.5 -6 -0.2

Kansas City once again bounced back off a loss and with a win and Oakland loss, takes the AFC West and second-seed. The emergence of Tyreek Hill adds a completely different and explosive element to Chiefs offense and forces the opposition to shade TE Travis Kelce less. K.C. has their weaknesses, but they should be able to handle San Diego and move to 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season since last year. The Chargers fell to Cleveland and in a season of lows, this one has to shake the most optimistic Bolts fans. Said this before, yet hard to ignore. San Diego is 7-19 (14-12 ATS) in games determined by eight or fewer points since last season.

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5

PPG(CS)• SAN DIEGO is 3-11 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - division games• SAN DIEGO is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - As underdog

(329) SEATTLE (-9.5 | 43) [SU:9-5-1 | ATS:7-7-1] AT (330) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:2-13 | ATS:3-11-1]JANUARY 1, 2017 4:25 PM on FOX - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SEATTLE 21.9 20 25-100 [4.0] 35-23-256 [7.2] 16.3 17.9 20 27-95 [3.5] 34-21-228 [6.6] 18.0 -1 +4.0 SAN FRANCISCO 19.1 18 28-130 [4.6] 31-18-181 [5.8] 16.3 30.3 23 35-171 [4.9] 32-20-237 [7.4] 13.5 -3 -11.2

The lofty standards Seattle has set under Pete Carroll have made this year’s team a disappointment of sorts in spite of winning division. The rare home loss to Arizona illustrated their previous steady performances are not going to happen and the weaknesses this Seahawks have been exposed even with numerous exceptional strengths. Seattle is 15-4 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points or more. Like Cleveland, after losing 13 games in a row, a victory was very satisfying and in the manner in which it happened, even more so for the San Francisco players and coaches. Nobody is going to expect them to handle Seattle and the Niners are 0-7 ATS after two away outings.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 17-7-1 ATS(L25G) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per

attempt(CS)• SAN FRANCISCO is 1-10-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)• SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent teams outscoring opponents

by more than 3.0 points per game(CS)


NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



12




NFL MATCHUPS(331) OAKLAND [SU:12-3 | ATS:10-5] AT (332) DENVER (-2 | 40) [SU:8-7 | ATS:8-7]

JANUARY 1, 2017 4:25 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OAKLAND 27.3 21 28-124 [4.5] 38-24-259 [6.9] 14.0 24.1 20 25-116 [4.6] 34-21-261 [7.6] 15.6 +18 +3.2 DENVER 20.6 18 25-89 [3.6] 36-21-232 [6.4] 15.6 19.4 20 31-135 [4.4] 35-19-187 [5.4] 16.6 0 +1.2

Oakland’s victory over Indianapolis was one the worst wins in team history, with the loss of QB Derek Carr. Matt McGloin moves into the starting roll and the Raiders would appear desperate for a win to feel good about new situation and have extra week to prepare with new quarterback as No.2 seed. Oakland is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog under coach Jack Del Rio. Denver won the Super Bowl, but not even to have a chance to defense title has to sting this franchise, especially after 4-0 start. Too many losses in the defensive line and poorer blocking without explosive back doomed the Broncos. Denver is 10-2 ATS at home off a AFC West loss by 10 points or more.

GAME TRENDS• OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games• DENVER is 3-7-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards

per play(CS)• OAKLAND is 13-3 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards per

attempt(CS)



13


VI Jim 83-70 (54%) 29-17 (63%)*

VI Jason 84-69 (55%) 26-19 (58%)*

VI Doug 73-80 (48%) 23-25 (48%)*

Power Ratings74-79 (48%)

Effective Strength 64-89 (42%)

Forecaster 66-87 (43%)

Bettors Ratings 83-70 (54%)

Consensus 73-80 (48%)

Wednesday, December 28, 2016 - (249) KANSAS ST vs. (250) TEXAS A&M (-2.5)Texas

A&M*

Kansas St Texas

A&M

Kansas St Texas

A&M

Texas

A&M

Texas

A&M

Texas A&M

Wednesday, December 28, 2016 - (249) KANSAS ST vs. (250) TEXAS A&M - TOTAL (58)UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Thursday, December 29, 2016 - (253) ARKANSAS vs. (254) VIRGINIA TECH (-7)Arkansas Arkansas Arkansas* Virginia

Tech

Virginia

Tech

Arkansas Arkansas Arkansas

Thursday, December 29, 2016 - (253) ARKANSAS vs. (254) VIRGINIA TECH - TOTAL (61)UNDER UNDER Over* UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Friday, December 30, 2016 - (265) FLORIDA ST vs. (266) MICHIGAN (-7)Michigan* Florida St* Michigan Michigan Michigan Florida St Michigan Michigan

Friday, December 30, 2016 - (265) FLORIDA ST vs. (266) MICHIGAN - TOTAL (52.5)OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Saturday, December 31, 2016 - (273) OHIO ST vs. (274) CLEMSON (+3)Ohio St* Clemson Clemson Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St

Saturday, December 31, 2016 - (273) OHIO ST vs. (274) CLEMSON - TOTAL (59.5)OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Monday, January 2, 2017 - (279) USC vs. (280) PENN ST (+6.5)Penn St USC* USC* Penn St Penn St Penn St USC Penn St

Monday, January 2, 2017 - (279) USC vs. (280) PENN ST - TOTAL (60.5)OVER OVER* UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

VI Jim says…If you look side-by-side at how both FSU and Michigan have outplayed opponents, it isn’t even close. The Seminoles scored 7.8 PPG more than their combined opponents allowed while holding them 4.8 PPG below their usual average. Combined that is a +12.6 for FSU. Michigan meanwhile, scored 41.0 PPG against opponents that allowed 25.6 and gave up 12.5 PPG to teams that averaged 28.0. That means Michigan is a +30.9. Theoretically that would mean that the Wolverines should be favored by 18.3 on a neutral field versus Florida State. Obviously oddsmakers couldn’t put a line like that on this game, but by all rights Michigan could win by that much or more. Harbaugh has his team on the way up and a win in a big New Year’s 6 bowl game against a national power is another natural step. Michigan puts on a strong performance in the Orange Bowl.

VI Jason says…By the time that USC and Penn State kick off the Rose Bowl on January 2nd, we will have a good idea of whether or not the respect for the Big Ten conference was warranted. However, the Rose Bowl is the only one of the NY6 games in which the Big Ten team is the underdog. Ironic since Penn State was the league champion. The Nittany Lions might be one of the best downfield passing teams in the country with QB Trace McSorley. I expect him to play well. However, there is a big part of me that believes that USC just might be physically superior to Penn State and there’s little the latter can do about it. The Trojans you might have made a judgement on back in September are a different one from that you will see on January 2nd. They have been dynamic and dominant with Sam Darnold at QB. USC also has a rich history of success against the Big Ten in Pasasdena. USC wins comfortably in a shootout.

VI Doug says…Arkansas was all over the board this season, with satisfying win over satisfying wins over TCU, Ole Miss, Florida and Mississippi State and hard to swallow losses to Texas A&M, LSU and Missouri. What Razorbacks team shows up against Virginia Tech? I’m counting on the good Hogs and it starts with head coach Bret Bielema getting points. Bielema is a potent 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog of late, which gives the impression he will have his squad ready to go. Virginia Tech struggled against teams that could run the ball and stayed committed to it, permitting 180 or more yards on the ground in six of their 13 contests. The Razorbacks have alternated losses and wins in last nine games and the latter pops up this time and I’ll go with three or four point outcome either way. Arky covers!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS

14




NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL(243) NORTHWESTERN [SU:6-6 | ATS:7-5] VS (244) PITTSBURGH (-5.5 | 65.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:5-6-1]

DECEMBER 28, 2016 2:00 PM on ESPN - YANKEE STADIUM (NEW YORK, NY)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTHWESTERN 25.6 21 38-145 [3.9] 37-22-248 [6.6] 15.4 22.1 22 37-137 [3.7] 39-24-265 [6.8] 18.2 +7 +3.5 PITTSBURGH (22) 42.3 21 42-230 [5.4] 25-14-218 [8.9] 10.6 35.6 23 32-109 [3.4] 43-27-343 [8.0] 12.7 +3 +6.7

It was an uphill battle all season for Northwestern after losing two games to Western Michigan and Illinois State by three total points. The Wildcats running game was not as strong as in years past, yet the passing offense averaged 43 more YPG than what their opponents permitted on average. Northwestern’s offense was dramatically better on the road at 33.8 PPG (19.7 PPG at home) and they will need every one of them to roll with Pittsburgh.

Pat Narduzzi came to the Steel City noted a very good defensive coach. So what happens, Pittsburgh concedes 35.6 PPG thanks to second-worst pass defense in college football, yet manages to win eight games because the offense could score from anywhere on the field in averaging 42.3 PPG. When you average 5.4 yards a carry and 8.9 yards per pass attempt like the Panthers, you are doing more than just moving the chains.

GAME TRENDS• NORTHWESTERN is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference VS BIG 5• PITTSBURGH is 3-10-1 ATS(L3Y) - Non-conference games• NORTHWESTERN is 8-1-1 UNDER(S2000) - VS ACC STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?243 NORTHWESTERN 65.5 48.5 30.9 29.1 33.6 NOR244 PITTSBURGH -5.5 53 -4.3 33.7 33.3 33.9 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNWhen looking into contest, the first aspect that has to be addressed in the total. Pittsburgh was the top totals team in the country at 11-1 OVER. The Panthers can score on anybody running or throwing and were 2-3 and 3-2 ATS on the road. This is Pitt’s eighth straight bowl and is 3-4 SU and ATS of late. Northwestern was 8-4 UNDER and a stellar 4-1 ATS away (3-2 SU). After losing nine straight bowl games (4-5 ATS), the Wildcats are 2-0 SU & ATS.

BOWL HISTORYFor a second straight season, the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl won’t feature a true east coast school participating. That’s too bad for bowl organizers or bettors, since the crowd is likely to be smaller and a trend showing “New York Area” programs having gone 4-0 ATS in the game previously not being in play. Pittsburgh is obviously the closer school in proximity and will try to keep that east coast lean going. The 2016 matchup pits Northwestern out of the Big Ten, versus the Panthers out of the ACC. This will be the third straight year that those two conferences are matched up against one another at Yankee Stadium. They have split the first two SU & ATS, with Duke edging Indiana a year ago. Underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS run in the game, a trend that would favor the Wildcats (+5.5) at press time. On totals, the two most recent games sailed over, reversing a trend of three straight UNDER’s.


http://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/bios.cfm/hc/288/jim-mack


15


RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL(245) WEST VIRGINIA [SU:10-2 | ATS:5-6-1] VS (246) MIAMI FL (-2.5 | 57) [SU:8-4 | ATS:8-4]DECEMBER 28, 2016 5:30 PM on ESPN - CAMPING WORLD STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WEST VIRGINIA (14) 32.6 25 45-239 [5.4] 32-19-267 [8.4] 15.5 23.4 22 40-175 [4.4] 37-21-256 [6.9] 18.4 +5 +9.2 MIAMI FL 34.6 20 33-158 [4.7] 33-20-273 [8.4] 12.5 18.9 19 38-133 [3.5] 35-20-220 [6.3] 18.7 +8 +15.7

However it came to be, this bowl game has annually matched two good teams and this year has a terrific matchup. West Virginia was supposed to be middle of the road in the Big 12. QB Skyler Howard and his pass catchers clicked from game one and a completely revamped defense was giving up yards and not points and this led to surprising 10-win season for the Mountaineers. West Virginia No. 12 offense is very difficult to defense, putting up 239 yards on the ground and 267 via the pass.

Three seasons rolled into one for Miami. A 4-0 start had Hurricanes backers convinced Mark Richt was the right man for the job. A heart-breaking loss to Florida State ended being four consecutive losses, which was immediately followed by 4-0 impressive finish. Confidence, or the lack of it played directly into complete season. The Canes have not won bowl game in a decade (0-6).

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI FL is 11-4-1 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite• WEST VIRGINIA is 1-12 ATS(L13G) at NEUTRAL SITE - VS Non-ranked team• MIAMI FL is 9-2 UNDER(L11G) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?245 WEST VIRGINIA 57 55.5 24.7 UNDER 27.1 30.7 WVU246 MIAMI FL -2.5 56.5 -0.5 27.3 26.7 28.0 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNA return to the bygone Big East football era with these two schools in this matchup. The last meeting was 2003 and both clubs exceed expectations this year. Each got the job done away from home, with West Virginia 4-1 and 3-2 ATS and Miami at 4-2 SU and ATS. The Hurricanes are 1-7 SU and ATS in the postseason since 2005, and the Mountaineers 7-7 and 4-10 ATS since the turn of the century.

BOWL HISTORYThe Russell Athletic Bowl is a relatively new name for a bowl series that has had several different corporate sponsors over the years. It is the middle game of three different bowl contests held at the Citrus Bowl in downtown Orlando. This year’s matchup pits two programs that have been in the game multiple times in recent years. Miami is 2-2 SU & ATS in this bowl series since ’96, while West Virginia has come up short in all three tries since ’94. Last year’s game was a 49-38 shootout win for Baylor over North Carolina. That game slowed a trend that had seen nine UNDER’s in 10 prior games. Underdogs hold a significant 9-3 ATS edge in the last 12 RAB games, including outright upsets in the most recent two contests. The ACC makes an annual stop here against various opponents, and the ACC team typically does well, boasting an 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS mark since ’03. The Hurricanes were listed as smaller than a FG favorite at press time.





16




FOSTER FARMS BOWL(247) INDIANA [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-7] VS (248) UTAH (-7 | 54.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:7-5]

DECEMBER 28, 2016 8:30 PM on FOX - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANA 25.9 21 41-156 [3.8] 35-21-278 [8.0] 16.8 27.3 19 42-152 [3.6] 33-17-220 [6.7] 13.6 -7 -1.4 UTAH 30.2 22 43-210 [4.9] 31-17-217 [6.9] 14.1 23.9 19 32-129 [4.0] 36-20-257 [7.2] 16.2 +7 +6.3

Indiana has completed one of the oddest hiring’s and firing’s of a head coach ever witnessed. With Kevin Wilson out and DC Tom Glass in without an apparent job search, the Hoosiers are after first bowl victory in 24 years. This was Wilson’s weakest offense group since his first year at 25.9 PPG. Glass brought in a tougher and more accountable defensive attitude and Indiana permitted their fewest points in 15 years (27.3 per game).

Since becoming a Pac-12 contender in South Division, Utah has the one loss that knocks them out. This year it was Game 11 at home to awful Oregon team, falling 30-28. That was followed by defeat at Colorado, making coach Kyle Whittingham’s job a rough one, rallying the Utes after being close to playing for Pac-12 championship and taking on .500 opponent with no football history. Utah does have solid running game that averaged 4.9 YPC.

GAME TRENDS• UTAH is 9-1-1 ATS(S2000) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles• INDIANA is 18-43 ATS(S2000) - On grass field• INDIANA is 12-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?247 INDIANA 54.5 43.5 22.2 22.2 22.1 248 UTAH -7 52.5 -9.8 30.8 30.6 29.0 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNAs compared to other bowls, at least a touch of history. In 2001-02, a quick home and home with Utah winning and beating the spread twice. As per usual, the Utes were tough hombres on the road at 4-2 SU and ATS and are remarkable 11-2 (9-4 ATS) as a bowl club. Indiana’s Pinstripe Bowl appearance was just their second since 1991 (2007 was the other). The Hoosiers have new head coach and were 2-3 and 3-2 ATS away from Bloomington.

BOWL HISTORYThe San Francisco area has hosted a bowl game every year since 2002, but 2014 game started a new tradition, both in name and venue. Beautiful Levi’s Stadium hosts the Foster Farms Bowl, and welcomes Indiana and Utah for the festivities. Stanford enjoyed a massive regional edge in 2014 and the Cardinal did not disappoint, blowing out Maryland 45-21. That win extended the run by Pac 12 teams in San Francisco area bowl games to 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in seven tries. However, last year, UCLA also enjoyed a sizeable regional edge but was upset by Nebraska. For 2016, neither school is closer than 750 miles from the destination so there will be no regional edge. The Bruins loss last year broke a streak of eight straight favorite wins in this bowl series, and the chalk is now 6-3 ATS in the L9. On totals, UNDER is 6-3 since 2007 but the two most recent games resulted in OVER’s. Bettors have sided with the winner in three straight FFB games, and are leaning on Indiana this year (+8 at opener to +7 at press time).



17


ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL(249) KANSAS ST [SU:8-4 | ATS:5-5-1] VS (250) TEXAS A&M (-2.5 | 57) [SU:8-4 | ATS:4-8]

DECEMBER 28, 2016 9:00 PM on ESPN - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS ST 32.2 22 44-233 [5.3] 24-14-154 [6.4] 12.0 21.8 20 31-113 [3.6] 35-22-270 [7.6] 17.6 +11 +10.4 TEXAS A&M 35.4 21 38-217 [5.7] 35-19-251 [7.1] 13.2 23.8 24 44-190 [4.3] 37-21-255 [6.9] 18.7 +5 +11.6

It has become common for Texas A&M to fade down the stretch against SEC competition and this year was no different in losing four of six. Losing QB Trevor Knight did not help, but the issue was defense, not offense for the Aggies. Texas A&M finished 91st in total defense, yet managed to permit only 23.8 PPG. If you want to back the Aggies, know they have not beat the spread since September (0-8 ATS).

Despite more than one shortcoming, Kansas State finished 8-4. The Wildcats passing offense was laughable at 118th and pass defense came in 111th in yards allowed. Nonetheless, coach Bill Snyder played old school, with his team 25th in rushing and 12th stopping the other team on the ground. This very much looks like a flashy club against a meat and potatoes crew. Motivation could well be the difference-maker, because we know who has the better coach.

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS ST is 9-1-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.25 yards per

point(CS)• TEXAS A&M is 2-10 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)• TEXAS A&M is 9-2 UNDER(L2Y) - All Games STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?249 KANSAS ST 58 54 25.5 27.6 26.2 250 TEXAS A&M -2.5 54 -0.8 28.5 30.2 30.3 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThis is another former conference chums get-together, when Texas A&M was a Big 12 member before bolting. The Aggies closed 0-4 ATS against Kansas State and there last six conflicts all resulted in Over’s. Texas A&M is bowling for the 10th time in 11 years and has posted a 4-5 and 3-6 ATS. The Wildcats have not closed seasons well with a 1-6 SU and ATS bowl record.

BOWL HISTORYThe Texas Bowl took the place of the formerly known Houston Bowl back in 2006, and is played at the Texans’ Stadium. This year’s game again fittingly features a team from the state, the sixth time in seven years that has occurred, as Texas A&M will be representing the SEC in the contest against Kansas State. The regional edge for the Texas teams hasn’t provided much actual advantage however, as teams from that state are just 1-3 ATS in their L4 tries in the Texas Bowl. This will be the third year in a row that a SEC team has taken part in the game following two impressive wins by Arkansas in 2014 and LSU in 2015. The Tigers’ win over Texas Tech dropped the Big 12’s record in this bowl series to 1-7 ATS since ’06. The Aggies, 2-0 SU & ATS historically in this game, are a small favorite in this year’s game, key since the chalk has clearly been the preferred side of choice in this bowl series, with a record of 12-3 SU & 10-4-1 ATS since ’01. UNDER the total is 7-2 in the L9 but last year’s game flew over a lofty total of 74.





18




BIRMINGHAM BOWL(251) SOUTH FLORIDA (-10 | 62) [SU:10-2 | ATS:8-4] VS (252) SOUTH CAROLINA [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-6-1]

DECEMBER 29, 2016 2:00 PM on ESPN - LEGION FIELD (BIRMINGHAM, AL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF S FLORIDA (25) 43.6 23 43-292 [6.7] 27-17-223 [8.2] 11.8 31.0 25 45-205 [4.6] 39-23-277 [7.2] 15.5 +6 +12.6 S CAROLINA 19.2 18 37-138 [3.8] 30-18-198 [6.6] 17.5 24.8 23 42-202 [4.8] 31-18-204 [6.6] 16.4 +10 -5.6

With matchup in Birmingham, at least the location of these teams from different states sounds correct. South Florida can gobble up the yards, which is why they finished 10th in total offense. QB Quinton Flowers might not be Lamar Jackson, yet he is an excellent dual threat performer and he ranked 10th in total offense as individual. The Bulls offense needed every yard, with USF defense allowing 31 PPG and ranking 119th in total defense.

This was supposed to be South Carolina’s worst season since the late 1990’s, but somehow the Gamecocks did enough to be bowl eligible. The South Carolina offense was abysmal at 19.3 PPG, but had couple key drives in certain games that helped them win. On defense, the Gamecocks conceded 407 YPG (62nd), but were stout when needed and ended up 29th in yards per point category. This seems like mismatch, but could be closer than anticipated.

GAME TRENDS• SOUTH FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS(L2Y) - as favorite of more than 7 points• SOUTH CAROLINA is 4-8 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29

PPG(CS)• SOUTH FLORIDA is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against mediocre teams being outscored by opponents by

more than 4.5 points per game(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?251 SOUTH FLORIDA -10 52.5 USF 36.5 USF 35.0 38.7 252 SOUTH CAROLINA 62 38 14.5 21.8 25.3 26.3 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNJust one episode between these schools which occurred in 2004, with South Carolina breezing to 34-3 triumph as 13-point home favorites. South Florida might not have the same head coach, but was team was 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the visitors role and the Bulls all-time bowl history has them at 4-3 SU & ATS. The Gamecocks are in rugged spot with no offense to speak of and were 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. The other USC will bring four-game bowl winning streak (3-0-1 ATS) to the party.

BOWL HISTORYAmerican Athletic Conference teams have matched up against SEC teams in three straight Birmingham Bowl games. SEC teams are 3-0 SU & ATS in those games and are now on a 4-game SU & ATS winning streak overall. Those conference match up once again in the 2016 with one big caveat…it is a reversal of the typical David vs. Goliath showdown, with the AAC team, South Florida, playing as the heavy favorite over South Carolina. The Bulls are off an impressive season but will be without former head coach Willie Taggart in this game, as he has left for Oregon. The average margin of victory for SEC teams during their current 4-game winning streak in the Birmingham Bowl is 16.8 PPG, so it will be a true reversal of fortunes should the Bulls fulfill oddsmakers’ projections. Overall, the chalk is 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in the history of the Birmingham Bowl. UNDER the total is also 8-2, including wins in the two most recent games, with losing teams scoring just 14.5 PPG in the 10 year run.



19


BELK BOWL(253) ARKANSAS [SU:7-5 | ATS:5-7] VS (254) VIRGINIA TECH (-7 | 61) [SU:9-4 | ATS:7-6]

DECEMBER 29, 2016 5:30 PM on ESPN - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARKANSAS 30.8 23 40-175 [4.3] 31-19-263 [8.4] 14.2 30.8 19 34-209 [6.2] 28-16-219 [7.8] 13.9 -2 0.0 VIRGINIA TECH (18) 35.0 23 46-185 [4.0] 32-20-263 [8.2] 12.8 22.7 17 38-149 [3.9] 31-15-194 [6.3] 15.1 -3 +12.3

Arkansas’ 7-5 record is indicative of what kind of team they had, but when they lost, the Hogs were slaughtered. The five Razorbacks losses were by average of 25 points a contest. The problem was the run defense, finishing an incomprehensible last in college football at 6.15 yards a carry surrendered. Unless QB Austin Allen has large game and Arkansas does not commit turnovers, could be tough sledding for Hogs.

Virginia Tech was surprise Coastal Division champs and if you followed this team, after they adjusted to new coach Justin Fuente, they might have lost but never quit. The Hokies still featured the run, but morphed into very good passing team with QB Jerod Evans having 3309 yards, 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. The defense gave up just 22.7 PPG, but was vulnerable to above average passing offense in permitting 248 or more yards to half of opponents.

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS is 12-3 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per

attempt(CS)• VIRGINIA TECH is 3-10 ATS(S2000) - Against inept defensive teams yielding more than 6.3 yards

per play(CS)• ARKANSAS is 10-1 UNDER(L11G) - In Bowl Games STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?253 ARKANSAS 61 48 23.6 26.6 28.3 254 VIRGINIA TECH -7 55.5 -7.3 34.9 32.8 32.0 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNVirginia Tech made a surprise visit to the ACC championship and won four of seven road excursions (3-4 ATS). This will be the Hokies 22nd consecutive bowl appearance and they are 9-11-1 ATS. Arkansas was presentable 2-3 SU and ATS away, however, they were outscored by 11.8 PPG, which could make a bettor nervous. The Razorbacks have won and covered the past two bowls after being winless in previous four (0-4 ATS).

BOWL HISTORYOnly twice in the L9 years has the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC not hosted a team from the state of North Carolina. This year’s matchup marks the third time, as Arkansas and Virginia Tech make first ever appearances in the game. Like many other bowl series’, the SEC has taken over this contest, winning and covering in each of the last two years, not coincidentally the first games it took part in. Arkansas will try to continue that success. However, the Razorbacks are underdogs of about a touchdown, and will have to slow a trend that has seen favorites win five straight games outright & ATS, the last three by 20+ points. Bettors have not been sharp in this game historically, as in the last eight Belk Bowl games that have moved off their opening pointspread towards either side, those teams have won just once. Incidentally, Virginia Tech opened at -6.5 and has been moved up to -7 since. Follow that line closely up until kickoff.





20




VALERO ALAMO BOWL(255) OKLAHOMA ST [SU:9-3 | ATS:7-5] VS (256) COLORADO (-3 | 62) [SU:10-3 | ATS:10-3]

DECEMBER 29, 2016 9:00 PM on ESPN - ALAMO DOME (SAN ANTONIO, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA ST (13) 38.7 24 37-170 [4.6] 36-23-322 [8.9] 12.7 28.1 23 43-206 [4.8] 33-20-251 [7.7] 16.3 +10 +10.6 COLORADO (11) 32.8 24 47-192 [4.1] 33-21-253 [7.6] 13.6 20.5 17 36-146 [4.0] 33-16-181 [5.4] 16.0 +7 +12.3

In truth, the Alamo Bowl matchup is New Year’s Day worthy. Oklahoma State had one win taken away by officials, otherwise, would already have 10 W’s. The Cowboys did many things well this season, however, on defense, they are not sturdy or strong enough to play with the elite of college football and bottomed out at 107th. Mason Rudolph grew as a signal caller and was in charge of the ninth-best pass offense. Okie State’s best team might be next year.

What an unexpected fantastic year for Colorado, who played for Pac-12 championship after, after posting 5-40 record as conference member. Seniors like QB Sefo Liufau decided enough of the losing and Walter Camp Coach of the Year, Mike MacIntyre, quietly proved his recruiting were far better than almost anyone realized. This was especially true on defense, as the Buffaloes were 17th nationally and 13th against the pass.

GAME TRENDS• COLORADO is 10-3 ATS(CS) - All Games• OKLAHOMA ST is 4-8 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• COLORADO is 15-5 UNDER(L25G) - As favorite STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?255 OKLAHOMA ST 62 56 24.2 OKST 30.7 30.6 256 COLORADO -3 56.5 -0.3 30.7 33.0 32.1 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNYet another spirited confrontation of a two previous Big 12 partners. Though Colorado has won only once, they have road these Cowboys hard with 3-0 ATS mark. It was an uncommon season for the Buffaloes at 6-1 ATS outside Boulder. First bowl trip for the Buffs since 2007. Oklahoma State had a good, not great campaign and is in 11th bowl game in a row is dead even against the spread.

BOWL HISTORYPrior to the 2010 season, the Alamo Bowl enjoyed a 15-year run of Big ten versus Big 12 schools. Since then however, the Big 12 has taken on the Pac 12, fairly successfully too, going 4-2 SU & ATS, seemingly taking advantage of the regional edge. The conference matchup remains the same for 2016, but both teams are Midwest teams at heart, with Colorado having played in the Big 12 for many years before joining the Pac 12 in 2011. The Buffaloes lost this game to Wisconsin in 2002. Oklahoma State is easily the more familiar team to Alamo Bowl fans, having gone 1-2 SU & ATS in the game since ’97. Colorado is favored by about a field goal, and if history serves, their chances are good, as favorites are on a run of 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS over the last decade. OVER the total is on a 4-1 run as well. There is also a trend developing recently regarding bettors’ interpretation of the total, as they are just 2-7 in their L9 tries when moving the total in this bowl series. For the 2016 Alamo Bowl, bettors had moved the total downward from 64 at opening to 62 as of press time. Historically that would point to an OVER result.



21


AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL(257) TCU [SU:6-6 | ATS:3-9] VS (258) GEORGIA (PK | 48.5) [SU:7-5 | ATS:5-7]DECEMBER 30, 2016 12:00 PM on ESPN - LIBERTY BOWL (MEMPHIS, TN)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TCU 31.7 23 37-197 [5.3] 40-23-278 [7.0] 15.0 27.8 21 44-183 [4.1] 34-19-245 [7.2] 15.4 -3 +3.9 GEORGIA 24.0 20 41-186 [4.6] 30-17-196 [6.4] 15.9 24.1 16 36-141 [3.9] 26-15-187 [7.2] 13.6 +7 -0.1

This could also have been called the - Missed Opportunity - bowl. Both TCU and Georgia could have made more noise in their respective leagues, but were plagued by inconsistency. The Horned Frogs did not resembled your typical Gary Patterson defense and defense up 72nd, not being very good against the run or pass. The addition of Kenny Hill was supposed to ease quarterback transition, but he was up and down and was battling leg problems. TCU scored 10 or fewer points three times in the second of the season.

The Georgia running game was supposed to ease the transition of freshman quarterback Jacob Eason. That happened about half the time. Despite Eason’s obvious talents, he made mistakes he won’t with more experience. The Bulldogs defense held up on their end was 17th in yards allowed. Ultimately, the Dawgs defense could be the deciding factor in this contest.

GAME TRENDS• GEORGIA is 8-4 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference VS BIG 5• TCU is 3-10 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• GEORGIA is 8-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?257 TCU 48 48.5 28.7 TCU 25.2 24.8 258 GEORGIA 0 46.5 2.3 22.2 22.8 22.9

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNBoth squads came into the year with question marks and are leaving the same way. TCU was undesirable 3-9 ATS and be sure to watch the spread close to game time with the Horned Frogs 1-7 ATS when favored. TCU is 4-5-1 ATS in the postseason looking back to ‘05. Georgia just did not have all the pieces fit, with something lacking even when winning. This is Dawgs 20th straight bowl game and they are sharp 13-6 ATS.

BOWL HISTORYThe Liberty Bowl game welcomes a SEC-Big 12 matchup for the third year in a row. Surprise, surprise, the SEC teams have won three straight games in this bowl series by an average margin of 22.3 PPG. In last year’s game, Arkansas crushed Kansas State 45-23 as a 13-point favorite. Ironically, SEC teams used to struggle a bit in this game when matched against Conference USA. Case in point, Georgia’s last time here in 2010 when it lost to UCF 10-6. Big 12 teams have now lost four straight Liberty Bowl games SU & ATS. TCU was here back in 2002 as a member of CUSA and beat Colorado State 17-3. Both of those games were part of a long stretch of UNDER the total domination. However, the last three games have gone OVER the total. Although favorites are 3-1 ATS in the L4 of this bowl series, dogs hold a long term edge of 8-4 ATS in the L12. Underdogs in TCU’s L16 bowl games are also 12-4 ATS.





22




HYUNDAI SUN BOWL(259) NORTH CAROLINA [SU:8-4 | ATS:7-5] VS (260) STANFORD (-2.5 | 54) [SU:9-3 | ATS:6-5-1]

DECEMBER 30, 2016 2:00 PM on CBS - SUN BOWL (EL PASO, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF N CAROLINA 33.1 21 30-148 [4.9] 35-24-294 [8.4] 13.4 24.9 22 51-232 [4.5] 26-15-186 [7.2] 16.8 +1 +8.2 STANFORD (16) 26.4 18 40-215 [5.4] 24-14-159 [6.6] 14.2 20.2 19 35-147 [4.2] 33-18-219 [6.6] 18.1 -1 +6.2

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Stanford, yet after quick start, many began to wonder. Losing three of next four took the Cardinal off the national radar. Christian McCaffrey, who will not be playing, became an afterthought, but Stanford’s conference schedule eased up and the Cardinal improved in all facets and they come to El Paso on a five-game winning and bubbling with confidence. Stanford was 23rd in yards per rush attempt (5.4) and faces North Carolina run defense which closed 113th.

After playing for ACC championship a year ago, North Carolina was poised for run, but ended up lacking the mental toughness and losing too many winnable games. Losses as favorites to Duke and N.C. State were unexplainable and they showed not fight in bad weather game versus Virginia Tech and were pounded. The Tar Heels can move the ball on anybody, however, will they want to fight against an opponent who craves physical football?

GAME TRENDS• NORTH CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS(L2Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 22 PPG(CS)• NORTH CAROLINA is 9-4 UNDER(L5Y) - VS AP top 25• STANFORD is 12-3 UNDER(L5Y) - As ranked team VS non-ranked team STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?259 NORTH CAROLINA 54 52 24.4 26.5 26.9 260 STANFORD -2.5 55 -3.8 26.8 29.9 28.1 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe Sun Bowl has upgraded its bowl matches in recent years and has another good one here. Both these squads had higher expectations for 2016 than El Paso. North Carolina did fine work on the road at 4-2 SU and ATS, with Stanford even better at 5-1 SU and ATS. The Tar Heels are 2-5 (3-4 ATS) as bowl club since 2008. The Cardinal enter with five-game winning streak and but is only 3-3-1 ATS recently as bowl qualifier.

BOWL HISTORYThe Sun Bowl is the one bowl game each season that reminds us of the importance of recognizing the history of bowl series’. Quite simply, underdogs have dominated the annual installments of this game. Dating back to 1995, underdogs boast a record of 16-4-1 ATS. The most recent winner was in 2014, when Duke (+7.5) lost to Arizona State 36-31. That said, Washington State did win a year ago in the chalk role, 20-14 over Miami. Was that an anomaly or a changing of the guard? We’ll see this year as Stanford (-3) takes on North Carolina. ACC-Pac 12 has been the matchup in the Sun Bowl in each of the L5 seasons, with the latter holding a 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS edge. Dating back to ’96, Pac 12 teams own a 13-5-1 ATS record. The secret to underdog, and Pac 12 success for that matter, in this game has been their ability to score, and that is reflected in a trend that shows 11 of the L15 games going OVER the total. Again though, last year’s game defied the trends and went UNDER. Bettors are typically wrong about this game when it comes to totals, 5-11 in the L16 games they have moved off their opening number. As of press time, the total had sat flat at 54 since opening.



23


NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL(261) S ALABAMA [SU:6-6 | ATS:3-9] VS (262) AIR FORCE (-13.5 | 57) [SU:9-3 | ATS:5-7]

DECEMBER 30, 2016 5:30 PM on ASN - ARIZONA STADIUM (TUCSON, AZ)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF S ALABAMA 25.8 20 37-150 [4.0] 33-19-246 [7.5] 15.3 25.5 21 44-213 [4.9] 25-15-172 [6.8] 15.1 +1 +0.3 AIR FORCE 34.3 23 64-323 [5.1] 12-5-129 [11.0] 13.2 26.7 18 35-118 [3.4] 30-16-252 [8.5] 13.9 +3 +7.6

The South Alabama defense generated at least one turnover in last 11 games and at least two in eight of those contests, unfortunately the offense ended up giving them right back, leading to .500 record. The Jaguars have talent, as wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State proved, nonetheless, too many mistakes and blown assignments on both sides of the ball led to 3-9 ATS record as underachiever.

Military schools are known for discipline and regimentation. That was not how the Air Force played, while still winning The Commander and Chief trophy. After beating Navy to start 4-0, the Falcons went in the tank and dropped three in a row, with the last the most galling, being upset by Hawai’i at home. The Air Force got back on track and finished 5-0, which included messing up Boise State’s postseason plans. The Flyboys should run all night on South Alabama.

GAME TRENDS• AIR FORCE is 9-3 ATS(L3Y) - Non-conference VS NON-BIG 5• S ALABAMA is 1-10 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)• AIR FORCE is 10-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?261 S ALABAMA 57 26 22.2 23.5 SAL 22.2 262 AIR FORCE -13.5 44 -17.5 33.3 31.9 35.6 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe only bowl contest not on a some cable or regular TV network. Which might be good, because both were bad against the number as visitors. South Alabama only won and covered once on the road this year, with Air Force 2-4 ATS, however, they did win four times. The Jaguars were 33-28 losers as two-point favorites in initial bowl appearance in 2014. The Flyboys are on a quality 5-1 ATS bowl run.

BOWL HISTORYThe Arizona Bowl was unique to the 2015 bowl schedule in a couple of significant ways. First, it was the first installment of a brand new series played in Tucson at the home of the Arizona Wildcats. Second, it was the first time that two conference opponents went head-to-head in a bowl game in the modern era, with Nevada eventually edging Colorado State 28-23. The matchup for the 2016 Arizona Bowl pits a Sun Belt team versus one from the Mountain West. Obviously this is virgin territory for both South Alabama and Air Force, and the Jaguars are actually looking for their first bowl victory. They are nearly a 2-touchdown underdog in this game. A year ago the Jaguars lost 33-28 in the first annual Camellia Bowl to Bowling Green. Air Force hasn’t been a favorite in a bowl game since 2012, when it lost 33-14 to Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl. a pointspread that would easily mark the biggest mismatch in this bowl series’ history.





24




FRANKLIN AMER. MORT. MUSIC CITY BOWL(263) NEBRASKA [SU:9-3 | ATS:6-4-2] VS (264) TENNESSEE (-6 | 58.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:5-7]

DECEMBER 30, 2016 3:30 PM on ESPN - NISSAN STADIUM (NASHVILLE, TN)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEBRASKA (24) 26.8 21 41-178 [4.3] 30-15-208 [7.0] 14.4 22.8 17 33-141 [4.3] 32-19-210 [6.5] 15.4 +5 +4.0 TENNESSEE 36.2 21 40-203 [5.1] 28-18-234 [8.2] 12.1 29.2 23 45-234 [5.2] 32-18-226 [7.0] 15.8 -2 +7.0

In the first part of the season, Nebraska had it rolling and was playing faster on offense and defense. Once the schedule picked up, the offensive line had issues, the leg foes of QB Tommy Armstrong became more pronounced and the defense could not hold up. The overall defensive numbers for the Cornhuskers were not bad at 21st nationally, but if they do not play with more fire than they did in last game against Iowa, Tennessee offensively can pile up the yards and points.

The Volunteers were supposed to run away with the SEC East, instead finished 4-4 in league play and have to settle for bowl contest in not too far away Nashville. Tennessee certainly had their share in injuries, still not excuse for finishing 109th in total defense, because there was talent in place. We hear a lot about motivation this time of year and the winner will be who wants it.

GAME TRENDS• NEBRASKA is 8-3-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• NEBRASKA is 21-11 OVER(L32G) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards

per carry(CS)• TENNESSEE is 14-4 OVER(L5Y) - On grass field STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?263 NEBRASKA 60.5 51 28.6 27.0 31.9 NEB264 TENNESSEE -4 52 -1 32.2 30.0 31.4 s HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNTennessee will have decided edge playing in Nashville, even with disappointing season. The Vols could score home or away, but they conceded 33.8 PPG when not in Knoxville. The Volunteers are pedestrian 7-8 ATS in the postseason going back to 1996. Nebraska also gave up quite a few points on the road at 32.0 PPG, while scoring only 16. The Cornhuskers are 5-3 ATS of late as bowlers, with only three victories.

BOWL HISTORYIf you’re looking for a bowl series in which the SEC team has struggled, look at the Music City Bowl, as they are just 5-11-1 ATS in this game since inception in ’98. The matchup for 2016 is very interesting in that two prominent national programs collide, with Nebraska taking on Tennessee. This is the first of two bowl games matching the Big Ten & SEC, usually a more prominent occurrence. The Volunteers are about a 4-point favorite and looking to extend a run by favorites 14-7 ATS in the 21 bowl games these league have squared off in since 2011. The Cornhuskers are on a 3-game ATS bowl winning streak, UT has won and covered its last two bowl games. Totals results have alternated every year in this game dating back to 2008, with OVER the patterned result for this year. That said, bettors have been sharp when depicting totals in this bowl series, going 9-3 in the L12 when moving the total off the posted opener. At last check, bettors were favoring an UNDER here (61 to 59).



25


CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL(265) FLORIDA ST [SU:9-3 | ATS:7-4] VS (266) MICHIGAN (-6.5 | 52.5) [SU:10-2 | ATS:6-6]

DECEMBER 30, 2016 8:00 PM on ESPN - HARD ROCK STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLORIDA ST (10) 35.2 25 40-207 [5.1] 33-20-268 [8.1] 13.5 24.4 19 35-131 [3.7] 30-17-226 [7.4] 14.6 +4 +10.8 MICHIGAN (6) 41.0 22 45-223 [5.0] 28-17-216 [7.8] 10.7 12.5 14 37-117 [3.1] 25-11-136 [5.4] 20.2 +6 +28.5

The first of the Super Six bowls gets things started in Miami and it should be excellent battle. Florida State had younger team and after being drilled by Louisville, it’s only other losses were by two and three points to North Carolina and Clemson respectively. The Seminoles run defense has the talent to slow Michigan running game and if Dalvin Cook can find a few creases, this becomes a highly entertaining contest that a great way to kickoff the next few days.

Michigan’s chances could well hinge on the right shoulder of QB Wilton Speight. When he was healthy, the Wolverines could both run and throw with aplomb and this will be important to keep the Noles guessing on defense. The Michigan defense was No.2 in the country, but if you are looking for a weakness, it is getting off the field, as they were 2-2 and 1-3 ATS when facing 40 or more rush attempts.

GAME TRENDS• FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - Against decent defensive teams yielding less

than 5.0 yards per play(CS)• MICHIGAN is 5-16-1 ATS(S2000) - VS lower ranked team• MICHIGAN is 10-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7

points per game(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?265 FLORIDA ST 52.5 61 21.0 OVER 22.8 20.4 266 MICHIGAN -7 72 -10.5 38.2 MICH 29.8 36.3 MICH HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe first major bowl of the season is the Orange Bowl. Florida State did a number in the road whites with 4-2 and 5-1 ATS marks. Despite Michigan’s success they were only 2-2 SU and ATS as the away outfit. The Wolverines are unpleasant 2-4-2 ATS when wearing a bowl decal on their uniforms since 2005. After covering nine bowls in a row, Florida State in 0-3 ATS negative trend.

BOWL HISTORYThe pageantry of the Orange Bowl will once again be on display on December 30th, and the matchup for 2016 is a dandy, with Florida State and Michigan squaring off. Hopefully the game lives up to the hype, as the famed halftime show of this bowl series has been more entertaining than recent games, as seven of the L8 have been decided by double-digits with an average margin of victory of 18.6 PPG. Last year it was Clemson whipping Oklahoma 37-17 in the first of the two College Football Playoff Semifinal contests. The Tigers were a 4-point dog in that game, and the upset extended the recent surge of underdogs in this game to 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS over the L13 years. The Seminoles (+7) will look to continue that dog success, as well as the success of ACC teams who have now won and covered four straight games in the series. They have been here eight times since ’93, going 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. Michigan hasn’t been in the Orange Bowl since the famous 35-34 win over Alabama in 2000, a game now known better as Tom Brady’s last for the school. Bettors have struggled with sides in this game historically, going 2-9 ATS in their L7 tries. It might take a lot to get this year’s contest moved off of the 7-point number though.





26




BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL(267) LSU (-3 | 59.5) [SU:7-4 | ATS:5-6] VS (268) LOUISVILLE [SU:9-3 | ATS:5-6-1]

DECEMBER 31, 2016 11:00 AM on ABC - CAMPING WORLD STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LSU (19) 28.3 20 38-238 [6.3] 24-14-188 [7.7] 15.1 16.4 16 36-123 [3.4] 31-17-200 [6.6] 19.7 0 +11.9 LOUISVILLE (15) 45.3 26 41-257 [6.3] 34-20-302 [8.9] 12.3 23.3 17 37-111 [3.0] 32-17-206 [6.5] 13.6 -7 +22.0

Ed Orgeron took over as head coach for LSU and changed the thought process of LSU players. The Tigers were more aggressive and ready to play each game and closed 5-2. Leonard Fournette has left the program, but has been hurt much of the last two years and the offense has generally moved away from him despite his individual brilliance. The defense was sixth in scoring defense at 16.4 PPG and they will look at what Houston did to Louisville’s offensive line.

Despite the obvious talents of Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, Louisville committed 31 turnovers this season. Even the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense at 45.3 PPG cannot overcome those many mistakes, placing the defense in poor situations. The Cardinals defense did not always come to play, but was 10th against the rush even after Kentucky gouged them for 228 yards in season finale. Figure this to be a testament of wills.

GAME TRENDS• LSU is 10-4 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6

yards per carry(CS)• LOUISVILLE is 12-5 UNDER(L17G) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)• LSU is 11-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?267 LSU -3 61 27.1 30.7 31.1 268 LOUISVILLE 59.5 58 2.8 30.4 LOU 28.9 27.9 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNIt seems fitting these two are colliding as both had euphoric moments and truly puzzling defeats. LSU made early season coaching change and played better afterwards and will be playing in 17th consecutive bowl conflict having a 10-6 ATS record. After thrusting themselves back into Final 4 contention, Louisville lost last two games and is recent 4-2 ATS bowl crew.

BOWL HISTORYOnly once in the L24 seasons has the winner of the Citrus Bowl now covered the pointspread. That game was in 2001, when Michigan edged Auburn 31-28 as a 7-point favorite. Other than that, it’s been an ATS best as simple as picking the winner. For 2016, the matchup is LSU versus Louisville, SEC versus ACC, as the latter takes part in the game for the first time since pre-’93. SEC teams are on a run of 5-1 SU & ATS in this game, but the one loss was a year ago when Michigan whipped Florida 41-7. The Tigers are favored by 3 points, and they will be looking to extend a run of 5-1 SU & ATS by the chalk in this bowl series. They have played in this game twice since ’05, but lost both outright while favored. That said, favorites in Louisville’s L12 bowl games are on a 10-2 ATS run. Totals in this bowl game have trended heavily OVER in recent years, four in a row and 12-6 since ’99.



27


TAXSLAYER BOWL(269) KENTUCKY [SU:7-5 | ATS:7-5] VS (270) GEORGIA TECH (-3 | 62) [SU:8-4 | ATS:6-4-1]

DECEMBER 31, 2016 11:00 AM on ESPN - EVERBANK FIELD (JACKSONVILLE, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KENTUCKY 31.0 20 44-241 [5.5] 23-13-187 [8.1] 13.8 31.2 23 44-225 [5.1] 28-16-214 [7.6] 14.1 -6 -0.2 GEORGIA TECH 27.8 17 46-254 [5.5] 12-6-134 [11.0] 14.0 25.0 22 36-174 [4.8] 33-21-237 [7.1] 16.4 +3 +2.8

While the games later on New Year’s Eve will be feature motivated teams, this should be very good preface in that department. Both Kentucky and Georgia finished strong and each should be ready give there all. The Wildcats were supposed to have nicely balance offense, but when QB Drew Barker went down in September, a lot of the passing offense went with him. Backup Stephen Jackson had a couple of great games, but Kentucky’s calling card is No.16 rush offense.

Georgia Tech’s defense turned out to be overrated, nevertheless, they began forcing turnovers late and the wins started piling up. The Yellow Jackets run the option offense and senior QB Justin Thomas was solid all year and made fewer mistakes than at any time in his career. Georgia Tech’s bread and butter is running the pigskin and they were 10th nationally. Whatever defense prevents the big plays should be winner.

GAME TRENDS• GEORGIA TECH is 8-4 ATS(L3Y) - Non-conference games• KENTUCKY is 13-28 ATS(L5Y) - As underdog• KENTUCKY is 14-4 UNDER(S2000) - AS underdog of 7 or less points STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?269 KENTUCKY 61.5 44.5 25.4 UNDER 26.2 UNDER 27.2 270 GEORGIA TECH -3 49 -7.8 GT 31.6 29.9 31.9 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNKentucky’s upset at Louisville was a feel good story for the Wildcats football program and they finished 4-1 ATS away from Lexington. This matter to Kentucky football with first bowl appearance in six years, after being 3-2 and 2-3 ATS from 2006-10. Georgia Tech also ended on a high note at with three W’s and covers in a row, with two as upsets. The Yellow Jackets have been a rambling wreck in bowls at 2-6 ATS.

BOWL HISTORYThe prior-named Gator Bowl game welcomes Kentucky & Georgia Tech for its 2016 matchup in yet another SEC-ACC bowl game matchup. If you recall from our Conference Bowl article a couple weeks ago, underdogs in bowl games between those two leagues were on a 16-8-1 ATS run heading into the 2016 bowl season. That goes entirely against a long-standing trend in this bowl series that finds favorites on a 14-4 ATS surge. Of course, this has been a SEC-Big Ten bowl series in recent years so the conference matchup could change things altogether. An ACC team has not been in this game since 2010 when Florida State beat West Virginia 33-21, moving the league’s record to 8-1 ATS in its L9 tries. Georgia Tech should close as about a 3-point favorite, down from 4.5 at opener. The total opened at 60 and moved to 61 by press time. That could prove important as bettors have lost their L5 Taxslayer Bowl games on totals. An UNDER would mark a sixth straight loss there. Overall, UNDER has been the winning total result in four of the L5 games.





28




CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL(271) WASHINGTON [SU:12-1 | ATS:7-6] VS (272) ALABAMA (-14.5 | 54) [SU:13-0 | ATS:9-4]

DECEMBER 31, 2016 3:00 PM on ESPN - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASHINGTON (4) 44.5 23 38-210 [5.5] 28-18-267 [9.4] 10.7 17.2 18 36-124 [3.5] 33-19-193 [5.8] 18.4 +21 +27.3 ALABAMA (1) 40.5 22 43-247 [5.8] 28-19-224 [7.9] 11.6 11.8 13 31-64 [2.1] 32-17-184 [5.8] 21.0 +5 +28.7

For those that wondered if Chris Peterson could coach a big-time program after a slow start in Seattle, question answered. Washington upgraded their talent everywhere and is deserving of where they are. The Huskies offense averaged 44.5 PPG, was 22nd in total offense and held opposing teams to 17.2 PPG and 30.6 percent below their normal yards gained. The point spread indicates Washington does not have much of a chance, but Peterson has excelled in this role when having time to prepare.

Frankly, no other way to describe this, this might the best Saban-coached Alabama team yet. The Crimson Tide have no weakness, just a few elements they are not the best, only remarkably outstanding. If they collapse pocket on Jake Browning, game over. Little reason to think Bama will not win unless they commit turnovers and the Huskies score touchdowns off them, then, Game On! Let’s watch what the best college team does.

GAME TRENDS• ALABAMA is 8-3 ATS(L11G) at NEUTRAL SITE - as double digit favorite• WASHINGTON is 16-7-2 OVER(L25G) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or

more(CS)• ALABAMA is 11-1 OVER(L5Y) - VS ranked team STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?271 WASHINGTON 54 69 WAS 24.4 WAS 22.7 WAS 22.7 WAS272 ALABAMA -15 76.5 -8 30.1 31.0 32.3 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNAlabama is a huge favorite for the first semifinal and not many arguing, having edges in most facets and intangibles. The Crimson Tide were 6-0 and 5-1 ATS away from home, winning by 26.2 PPG. Washington was also 6-0 (4-2 ATS) and won by 26.8 PPG. Bama has covered five of last eight bowl games, with the Huskies 4-2 ATS since 2010.

BOWL HISTORYThe first of the two College Football Playoff Semifinal games comes from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, where Washington and Alabama will comprise the teams playing in the 2016 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl game. Alabama is a heavy favorite of about 17 points, the biggest chalk team on the 2016 bowl betting board. The Huskies have to hope the long running trend of underdog dominance in this bowl game continues, as dogs boast an incredible 16-6-2 ATS edge in the L24 games. As part of that, favorites of 5-points or more in the Peach Bowl have lost seven straight games ATS. Both teams are new to this bowl series, but the SEC certainly isn’t, having gone 1-5 ATS in its L6 appearances. Totals results have alternated every year since 2008, with UNDER being the expected result for 2016 based upon that pattern. Going back all the way to ’96, UNDER the total owns an edge of 13-7. Bettors have been extremely sharp on totals in past Peach Bowl games, moving the number correctly in six straight contests. This year’s game started at 58 but dropped rapidly to 54.5, signaling that bettors are expecting a lower scoring tilt.



29


PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL(273) OHIO ST (-3 | 59.5) [SU:11-1 | ATS:6-6] VS (274) CLEMSON [SU:12-1 | ATS:6-7]

DECEMBER 31, 2016 7:00 PM on ESPN - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO ST (2) 42.7 25 47-258 [5.5] 31-20-221 [7.1] 11.2 14.2 15 36-118 [3.3] 30-14-164 [5.4] 19.9 +16 +28.5 CLEMSON (3) 40.2 27 39-172 [4.5] 41-28-332 [8.1] 12.5 18.4 18 36-126 [3.5] 32-17-188 [5.9] 17.1 0 +21.8

Ohio State lost six defensive players to NFL and barely missed a beat. The Buckeyes were 3rd in the nation in scoring defense and tied for 10th in forced turnovers. If Clemson is in third and long, forget it, Ohio State was 10th in the land in 3rd down defense. J.T. Barrett was up and down as passer this season, thus if he is ‘on’, the Buckeyes can create a real conundrum for the Clemson defense because the running game averages 5.5 YPC.

For Clemson, this is unfinished business from last season. Deshaun Watson was not quite as prolific as last year, but is a dynamic performer. Clemson coaches have to identify the right weaknesses in Ohio State secondary which would allow No.7 pass offense to succeed. The Tigers defense was 20th in yards per carry allowed and if they make Barrett have to beat them in 3rd and 6 or more on continual basis, Clemson can engineer upset.

GAME TRENDS• OHIO ST is 12-2 ATS(L14G) at NEUTRAL SITE - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or

more(CS)• CLEMSON is 11-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards

per attempt(CS)• OHIO ST is 12-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against strong teams outscoring opponents by more than 10 points

per game(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?273 OHIO ST -3 74 OHST 34.4 OHST 30.3 32.2 274 CLEMSON 59.5 65.5 8.5 24.9 26.7 28.0 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNClemson is in similar spot as they were in the 2014 Orange Bowl, a small underdog to Ohio State. The Tigers won that one 40-35 as 2.5-point underdogs. The Buckeyes were 4-1 and 2-3 ATS in the road uniforms and won by 17 PPG. Clemson was perfect 6-0 (2-4 ATS) with margin of victory 17.1 PPG. Ohio State is 6-2 ATS as bowler of late, including three straight covers. The Tigers are on a 5-0 ATS bowl game roll.

BOWL HISTORYOhio State and Clemson make up the matchup for the latter of the two College Football Playoff Semifinal games, meeting in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl game. The Buckeyes have been very successful in this bowl series of late, appearing five times since 2003 while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Clemson has never played in this bowl game in Glendale, AZ. Ohio State is favored by 3 points but dating back to 2002, underdogs own a 10-5 ATS edge in this game. That said, there is one of those unusual trends that finds the team playing as the “visiting team” boasting an 8-2 ATS record in the l10 years, and the Buckeyes find themselves in that role this time. They might also be the beneficiary of misreading by bettors, as line moves have proven great indicators in this bowl series. Bettors are just 2-9 ATS in the L11 Fiesta Bowl games when moving lines off their openers. For this one, they are clearly favoring Clemson, moving the Tigers from +4.5 at opener to +3 of late. Five of the L6 installments of this annual game have gone OVER the total.





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OUTBACK BOWL(275) IOWA [SU:8-4 | ATS:6-6] VS (276) FLORIDA (-3 | 40.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:4-7-1]

JANUARY 2, 2017 1:00 PM on ABC - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF IOWA (21) 26.8 17 38-172 [4.5] 24-14-161 [6.8] 12.4 17.9 19 38-153 [4.0] 31-16-200 [6.4] 19.7 +7 +8.9 FLORIDA (20) 23.4 19 35-130 [3.7] 32-19-215 [6.7] 14.7 17.9 16 37-142 [3.8] 25-12-156 [6.2] 16.6 +1 +5.5

Florida might have played for SEC championship, but Iowa should be more inspired team. The Hawkeyes upset Michigan at home and finished with three straight victories and should be ready. Iowa really turned it around in the trenches, playing like the Hawkeye teams of old pushing people around. After being whipped in last two bowl games, the Iowa seniors would figure to want this one badly.

The Gators offense simply was not good enough, which is why they only scored 23.4 PPG and were 115th in total offense. The talent level was not in place and the defense did its best, but wore down with too much work and having linebackers wiped out. The Florida defense should be rejuvenated with time off and the offense could stand some back of the playbook additions to shock Iowa. Difficult to imagine anything other than an UNDER in this bowl.

GAME TRENDS• IOWA is 9-4 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - As underdog• FLORIDA is 6-14 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference games• FLORIDA is 10-4 OVER(S2000) - In January STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?275 IOWA 40.5 54.5 23.5 OVER 19.5 19.1 276 FLORIDA -3 53.5 0.8 22.5 22.1 21.6 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese football programs have two prior New Year’s bowl meetings in the last dozen years and they were also in the Outback Bowl. Florida was crushed by Iowa 37-17 (-3) in 2004 and got revenge two years later as a Pick 31-24. Iowa played better away from home at 4-1 (3-2 ATS). Florida’s injuries played a role is 2-5 ATS road record.

BOWL HISTORYIowa and Florida kickoff the 2017 football calendar year from the Outback Bowl in Tampa. For the last 21 years now, this bowl series has matched a team from the Big Ten and SEC, and for the most part, the teams from the Midwest have really gotten the better out of their counterparts, as they boast a strong 10-4 ATS (6-8 SU) record in the last 14 games. However, last year’s decision was all SEC, with Tennessee on the favorable end of a 45-6 affair against Northwestern. There have been a few other significant trends that have formed in the series in other areas too. Underdogs own a record of 12-5 ATS in this Tampa bowl series since 2000. Not to be outdone, the total has also seen a significant pattern develop on the OVER, 11-4 in the L15. If that weren’t enough, designated road teams boast a 6-1 ATS mark in the L7. That trend, as well as those favoring the underdogs and Big Ten teams, would all side with Iowa, as the Hawkeyes will be wearing the visiting whites and playing as about a 3-point dog to the Gators. Iowa is also 3-1 ATS in its L4 Outback Bowl appearances, but these same teams did split the 2004 & 2006 games, both outright & ATS.



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GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL(277) W MICHIGAN [SU:13-0 | ATS:9-4] VS (278) WISCONSIN (-7.5 | 52) [SU:10-3 | ATS:9-4]

JANUARY 2, 2017 1:00 PM on ESPN - AT&T STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W MICHIGAN (12) 43.5 26 46-237 [5.1] 27-19-260 [9.6] 11.4 19.5 18 32-151 [4.7] 29-16-202 [6.9] 18.1 +19 +24.0 WISCONSIN (8) 28.7 20 48-205 [4.3] 24-15-179 [7.5] 13.4 15.5 16 30-97 [3.2] 31-16-206 [6.6] 19.5 +12 +13.2

What a season for Western Michigan at 13-0 and the second MAC team to secure a major bowl bid in the last five years. This is an efficient an offense as you will find in college football, ranking 16th overall and able to run or pass with equal skill. Granted, the level of competition was nothing like what Wisconsin will bring to the Lone Star State. The Broncos defense only permitted 19.2 PPG, but did allow over 200 yards rushing five times and with how Wisconsin likes to play, this could be determining factor in the game.

The Badgers had an incredible season and to pull 10 wins out of that schedule is a testament to them. Though Wisconsin still was Top 10 in almost every defensive category, if you consider who they played, other than Alabama, who was arguably better? The Badgers will certainly run right at Western Michigan to see that they have.

GAME TRENDS• WISCONSIN is 18-7-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)• W MICHIGAN is 8-3 OVER(L3Y) - Non-conference games• WISCONSIN is 10-3 OVER(S2000) - VS lower ranked team STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?277 W MICHIGAN 53.5 51.5 25.2 23.8 23.4 278 WISCONSIN -7.5 62.5 -11.3 31.7 28.6 32.2 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNNormally, if these teams were to meet, it would be early September with Wisconsin winning, just like in 2000, when the Badgers were uninspired 19-7 victors as 33-point favorites. Both squads were incredible on the road with Western Michigan 7-0 and 5-2 ATS and Wisconsin 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU). The unbeaten Broncos are 2-3 ATS as bowlers going back to 1989, with Wisky 4-2-1 ATS recently.

BOWL HISTORYWestern Michigan is the Group of 5 pick for the New Year’s Six bowl games, thus representing the non-power, David’s of the college football world as they take on the Goliath’s. The opponent is Wisconsin, who came up short of its bid for a Rose Bowl berth by losing to Penn State in the Big Ten title game. The game is the Cotton Bowl Classic from Arlington, TX. Obviously this is the first time that a team from the MAC will be in this bowl game. Keep in mind that heading into the 2016 bowl season, MAC teams had lost 12 straight postseason games against power conference schools while going 2-10 ATS. Big Ten teams have been here in each of the last two years, as Michigan State split results with Baylor and Alabama. Favorites have been the preferred side of choice recently here, going 7-3 SU & ATS in the L10. Chalk of 6.5-points or more have won eight straight Cotton Bowl games while going 6-2 ATS. Interestingly, all of the L12 outright winners have also covered the spread. Those trends would seem to favor Wisconsin, as the Badgers figure to be at least a TD favorite at kickoff. UNDER the total is 15-6 in the L21 seasons, including last year’s 38-0 Alabama playoff win.





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ROSE BOWL GAME(279) USC (-6.5 | 60.5) [SU:9-3 | ATS:8-4] VS (280) PENN ST [SU:11-2 | ATS:8-4-1]

JANUARY 2, 2017 5:00 PM on ESPN - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF USC (9) 32.9 24 39-206 [5.2] 34-23-262 [7.7] 14.2 22.2 19 34-133 [3.9] 34-19-226 [6.6] 16.2 -2 +10.7 PENN ST (5) 36.7 20 39-169 [4.3] 28-16-261 [9.4] 11.7 23.4 19 40-154 [3.9] 32-20-198 [6.2] 15.0 +3 +13.3

If tournament field was six or eight, it would be all but impossible to keep these two teams out. Both squads rolled after having devastating loss earlier in the year. For USC, adding QB Sam Darnold was the start and the rest fell into place. Darnold was able to connect with talented wide-outs, which opened up the running game. The defense improved when playing with a lead and suddenly there were playmakers everywhere. The Trojans are extremely confident bunch.

Speaking of confidence, that is what this Penn State team needed and after improbable finish over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions realized what they had and finished as Big Ten champs. For Penn State to win, the run defense has to be more stout than it has been against stronger rushing teams. On offense, the underrated Nittany Lions receivers will have chances against USC secondary that likes to take chances. Must see TV.

GAME TRENDS• USC is 10-4 ATS(L2Y) - OU line of 60 or more• PENN ST is 6-16-3 ATS(L25G) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)• USC is 11-2-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per

play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?279 USC -6.5 63.5 29.6 31.6 33.3 280 PENN ST 60.5 63.5 1.5 PST 27.6 PST 26.9 25.2 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNAt the end of September, a prop bet for these two teams to be in the Rose Bowl would have paid some large delectable odds. These clubs have met in the “Grand Daddy of Them All” in 2009, with USC a 38-24 winner as 10-point favorites. These were two of the hottest teams coming down the stretch, however, the Trojans were 3-3 SU and ATS away from home, with Penn State 4-2 and 4-1-1 ATS. The Nittany Lions are 4-4 ATS in the postseason the last decade, with USC 5-3 ATS in same time span.

BOWL HISTORYUSC returns to Pasadena for the first time since six Rose Bowl appearances between ’96 & ’09 in which it compiled an impressive mark of 5-1 SU & ATS, including sweeping five games against Big Ten foes. The most recent of those games was a 38-24 decision over its 2017 opponent Penn State. This game has earned the nickname the “Granddaddy of the them All” and although many experts believe that the Nittany Lions may have been snubbed by the playoff committee, this is certainly a very rewarding consolation prize for them. Head coach James Franklin has made it abundantly clear that his team is pretty stoked to be playing in Pasadena. They will be looking to slow a trend that has seen Big Ten teams go just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their L10 Rose Bowl games. Pac 12 teams meanwhile are on a 7-2 SU & ATS surge. Being favored has meant winning SU & ATS for four of the L5 teams in that role here. Perhaps the most telling trend of late has been on line moves, as bettors have been wrong in the L7 games! For 2017, the line opened at USC -6.5 and has stayed there so follow it all the way up until kickoff. On totals, OVER has been the winning wager in the last three games and in nine of the L12.



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ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL(281) AUBURN [SU:8-4 | ATS:9-3] VS (282) OKLAHOMA (-3 | 63) [SU:10-2 | ATS:6-6]

JANUARY 2, 2017 8:30 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AUBURN (17) 32.2 22 50-278 [5.6] 22-14-171 [7.8] 13.9 15.6 18 35-125 [3.6] 36-21-224 [6.1] 22.4 +4 +16.6 OKLAHOMA (7) 44.7 25 44-239 [5.4] 30-21-320 [10.8] 12.5 29.7 21 35-161 [4.6] 39-21-279 [7.2] 14.8 -1 +15.0

In spite of 8-4 season, Auburn has to feel really good and somewhat privileged to be in this bowl game. The Tigers only really had one poor loss and that was to Georgia, having lost too many pieces from offense which was 6th in rushing, but needed QB Sean White as field general. From time to time the Tigers defense would give up yards, but stiffened and only conceded 15.6 PPG and was No.1 in Yards Per Point allowed.

Oklahoma is not going to beat Auburn because of defense. If they are to win this contest, it will be directly because of QB Baker Mayfield leading the Sooners No. 3 offense. Oklahoma averages 319.7 yards passing and can throttle opponents on the ground for 237.5 yards. The best way to beat the Tigers defense is come out throwing to get them off track and come back to running game. The Sooners are more than capable of doing this.

GAME TRENDS• AUBURN is 9-3 ATS(CS) - All Games• OKLAHOMA is 5-12 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - Against strong rushing teams averaging more

than 4.7 yards per carry(CS)• AUBURN is 9-2 UNDER(L3Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?281 AUBURN 63 58 28.9 UNDER 29.1 28.9 282 OKLAHOMA -3 64.5 -6.5 29.4 34.0 33.8 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThere is a lot of belief Auburn will be very competitive, being a much healthier team with so much time off and the line movement reflected this. The Tigers only played four roadies and were 2-2 and 3-1 ATS. Oklahoma was stellar 5-1, but defensive problems left them 2-4 ATS. The Sooners are unappetizing 3-7 ATS in bowls since ‘06, with Auburn 5-2 ATS in matching period.

BOWL HISTORYThe Sugar Bowl is the last of the regular bowl games for 2016-17 and if you’re looking to close your bowl betting with a bang, perhaps consider that the team designated as the road team has gone 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in the L8 installments of this contest. For this year, that team would be Auburn, who takes on Oklahoma and figures to be about a field goal underdog at kickoff. SEC teams are regulars in this bowl series, but Ole Miss’ 48-20 win over Oklahoma State last year snapped a 4-game SU & ATS losing streak in it for the league. The Tigers haven’t been here since 2005, a game in which they edged Virginia Tech 16-13 as a 6-point favorite. Oklahoma was in the 2014 Sugar Bowl game and put on an impressive performance in beating Alabama 45-31. That was a rarity, as SEC teams boasted an incredible record of 22-6-1 ATS in bowl games versus Big 12 foes since ’02 headed into this year’s 3-game set. Bettors have been sharp on the Sugar Bowl in recent years, hitting side winners in five of the L7 years. They were favoring Auburn as of press time, (+6 at opener to +3).





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When the powers that be decided to change the college football national championship system to a playoff format, a new group of games called the New Year’s Six was born. These six important bowl games, some formerly known as BCS games, would become the feature games of the bowl season, with two of the six games annually playing host to the two semifinal playoff games. All of the games were to be played on or around the New Year’s holiday, enhancing the prominence of them.

Being as how these are the country’s biggest bowl games each year, you won’t find players opting out of them to get ready for the NFL draft, and you won’t find teams disappointed to be there, as you do with many lesser bowl games. As such, the motivational excitement factor that is usually key in other bowl games is not as much of a factor in handicapping these games as is the matchup, the strengths/weaknesses of each team and how the line is placed. That said, this group of games still has plenty of different trends and other betting angles that have formed. Let’s take a look at these games as a group and individually from a betting perspective.

Before getting into the trends and such, this is the “New Year’s 6” group of games for 2016-17, with the two emboldened games being the playoff semifinal contests:

1. ORANGE BOWL - SUN LIFE STADIUM - MIAMI GARDENS – FL - (265) FLORIDA ST at (266) MICHIGAN

2. CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL - GEORGIA DOME - ATLANTA, GA - (271) WASHINGTON at (272) ALABAMA

3. FIESTA BOWL - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM - GLENDALE, AZ - (273) OHIO ST at (274) CLEMSON

4. COTTON BOWL - AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX - (277) W MICHIGAN at (278) WISCONSIN

5. ROSE BOWL - ROSE BOWL STADIUM - PASADENA, CA - (279) USC at (280) PENN ST

6. SUGAR BOWL - SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LA - (281) AUBURN at (282) OKLAHOMA

OVERALL TRENDS FOR THE ENTIRE GROUPThe first thing that stands out about this big group of bowl games is that the last three years has produced some very high scoring games. That is in stark contrast to the trend before which saw far more UNDER’s than OVER’s. In the L18 games, OVER the total is on a 14-4 run in the New Year’s 6 bowl games. The games have produced an average of 69.5

PPG on totals averaging 61.7, allowing over a full TD worth of wiggle room for bettors.

Concerning the “Group of 5” conference teams, they are 7-4 SU & ATS against their bigger counterparts since ’05. These teams, represented by Western Michigan in 2016-17, have clearly been motivated by playing in these high level games against power conference foes.

One of the most other prominent betting factoids you’ll want to know is that line movements have been telling, and bettors have not been sharp on the New year’s 6 games. In fact, these big games have become big money makers for the books. In fact, dating back to the turn of the calendar to 2012, bettors are just 6-18 ATS when moving sides on these games. Be sure to follow the line moves on the games up until kickoff. As of presstime, bettors were backing Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn, with no line moves to speak of in the other three games. Concerning totals though, bettors have been much better, going 17-7 in those same games. Strangely, bettors were favoring the UNDER in all the games except the Rose Bowl as of presstime.

There have been some significant upsets in the New Year’s 6 bowl games of recent years, and in fact, three of the last five double-digit underdogs in these games have pulled the upset, the latest being Oklahoma over Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl. What’s more, bettors have guessed wrong in the last six games with double-digit pointspreads. Both of those trends would bode well for Washington against the Tide.

While big upsets have been common in the New Year’s 6, teams winning and not covering have certainly not. Actually, the last 17 outright winners have also covered the pointspread, that is almost a full three years’ worth of games. The moral of the story there is pick the winner, pick the points.

Where the total lands has been a great predictor of totals’ results as well. In the L18 NY6 games with totals of 60 or higher, 13 have gone OVER. In the L60 games with totals in the 50’s, UNDER has been the result in 42 of the games, or 70% of them. Finally, on totals of less than 50, OVER is on a 13-6 run.

TRENDS BY CONFERENCE• ACC teams are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their L10

“New Year’s 6” level bowl games after going 3-13 SU prior.

• In “New Year’s 6”-level bowl games, Big Ten teams have been somewhat successful, going 7-5-1 ATS in the L13. Eight of those games also went UNDER the total.

• “New Year’s “ level bowl games have not been good to Big 12 teams over the last 14 years, as representatives are 12-23 SU & 8-26-1 ATS since ’02.

• Notre Dame is the only Independent to play in a “New Year’s 6” level bowl game ever,

NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWL GAME TRENDS


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but the Irish are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their L7 such tries.

• Since the Millenium, Pac 12 teams have been shined their brightest on the big stage, going 14-10 SU & 17-7 ATS in “New Year’s 6” level bowl games.

• The SEC’s “New Year’s 6” level bowl game resume is less than impressive in recent years, as the teams from this league have gone just 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS in their L15 such games.

TRENDS BY GAMEORANGE BOWLUnderdogs are 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS over the L13 years in the Orange Bowl. Bettors have struggled with sides in this game historically, going 2-9 ATS in their L7 tries.

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWLThere is a long running trend of underdog dominance in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl game, as dogs boast an incredible 16-6-2 ATS edge in the L24 games. As part of that, favorites of 5-points or more in the Peach Bowl have lost seven straight games ATS. The SEC is usually here but has gone 1-5 ATS in its L6 appearances. Totals results have alternated every year since 2008, with UNDER being the expected result for 2016 based upon that pattern. Going back all the way to ’96, UNDER the total owns an edge of 13-7. Bettors have been extremely sharp on totals in past Peach Bowl games, moving the number correctly in six straight contests.

FIESTA BOWLDating back to 2002, underdogs own a 10-5 ATS edge in the Fiesta Bowl game. There is also one of those unusual trends that finds the team playing as the “visiting team” boasting an 8-2 ATS record in the L10 years. Line moves have proven great indicators in this bowl series too.

Bettors are just 2-9 ATS in the L11 Fiesta Bowl games when moving lines off their openers. Five of the L6 installments of this annual game have gone OVER the total. COTTON BOWLFavorites have been the preferred side of choice recently at the Cotton Bowl, going 7-3 SU & ATS in the L10. Chalk of 6.5-points or more have won eight straight games while going 6-2 ATS. Interestingly, all of the L12 outright winners have also covered the spread. UNDER the total is 15-6 in the L21 seasons, including last year’s 38-0 Alabama playoff win.

ROSE BOWLThis game has earned the nickname the “Granddaddy of the them All”. Big Ten teams are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their L10 Rose Bowl games. Pac 12 teams meanwhile are on a 7-2 SU & ATS surge. Being favored has meant winning SU & ATS for four of the L5 teams in that role here. Perhaps the most telling trend of late has been on line moves, as bettors have been wrong in the L7 games! On totals, OVER has been the winning wager in the last three games and in nine of the L12.

SUGAR BOWLThe Sugar Bowl is the last of the regular bowl games for 2016-17 and if you’re looking to close your bowl betting with a bang, perhaps consider that the team designated as the road team has gone 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in the L8 installments of this contest. SEC teams are regulars in this bowl series, but Ole Miss’ 48-20 win over Oklahoma State last year snapped a 4-game SU & ATS losing streak in it for the league. Bettors have been sharp on the Sugar Bowl in recent years, hitting side winners in five of the L7 years.

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For line moves we continue to track the NFL and the next wave of bowl games. In the NFL for Week 17, we will pass on big early line moves on the N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh and Miami because all are expected to rest players for postseason contests. This could change as the week rolls on. Make sure to review all the latest line adjustments, as we continue our best-ever season at Vegas Insider.

BOWLS – Pinstripe - (243) NORTHWESTERN vs. (244) PITTSBURGH 2:00 ET ESPNWith Pittsburgh 11-1 OVER this season, rather stunning to see the total in this bowl game fall from 68 to 64.5 . Granted, Northwestern was 8-4 UNDER this season and some might expect them to control the pace. However, three of the Wildcats OVER’s came on the road with better offensive and that is quite likely to continue versus Panthers 127th rated pass defense. VIFW Take – Play Over

BOWLS – Foster Farms - (247) INDIANA vs. (248) UTAH 8:30 ET FOXIn spite of all the turmoil in the Indiana football program, either football bettors believe the transition will be smoother than what many outsiders actually think or Utah losing three of last four makes them unfit as 8-point favorite and they have been shaved to -6. Still hate the thought of going against the Utes who have won 11 of 13 bowl games (9-4 ATS). VIFW Take – Utah covers

BOWLS – Music City - (263) NEBRASKA vs. (263) TENNESSEE 3:30 ET ESPNWe will mention this only become of the circumstances. As of Dec. 22nd, QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. had yet to participate in any bowl game preparation with hamstring, which has bothered him late in the season. Armstrong is listed as - Doubtful - and Nebraska went to up three points to +6.5 and total came down from 61-58. VIFW Take – Leans Tennessee and Over

BOWLS - Orange - (265) FLORIDA STATE vs. (266) MICHIGAN 8:00 ET ESPNThis total has been steadily coming down and now resides at 52.5 after opening at 58. The thinking is Michigan can stop almost any offense with great players at all three levels, while Florida State improved as the season went on defensively and they have the athletes to compete with the Wolverines. Value betting the lower total is lost, but not sure we still reach 50 points. VIFW Take - Lean Under

BOWLS – Peach - (271) WASHINGTON vs. (272) ALABAMA 3:00 ET ESPNGiven Alabama’s defense and how disruptive they can be, the total on the first national semi-final has crumbled from 58 to 54. How both quarterbacks react to the pressure they will be under from the opposing team and internally will play a big part in final score. Still not going

to overlook the Crimson Tide is 8-1 OVER as a neutral field favorite since 2014.VIFW Take – Play Over

BOWLS – Fiesta - (273) OHIO STATE vs. (274) CLEMSON 7:00 ET ESPNIn the second national semi-final, this total has also been lowered. This is one not quite as much, going from 61.5 to 59.5. A look at each clubs away numbers finds both were in the lower 50’s for total scores. Have to consider Ohio State is 15-6 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63, nonetheless, Clemson is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 42 or more points in two consecutive outings. VIFW Take – Lean Under

NFL – (311) JACKSONVILLE at (312) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBSWith Indianapolis missing the playoffs again, some football bettors are counting on the Colts lack of interest in season finale and dropped them from -7 to -4.5 against Jacksonville. The logic is there with Indy only 3-4 SU and ATS at home and the Jaguars 5-2 ATS as visitors this year. At adjusted price, have to think about Colts at 9-1 ATS, after posting 1-2 ATS mark over three-game stretch. VIFW Take – Lean Indianapolis

NFL – (325) ARIZONA at (326) LOS ANGELES 4:25 ET FOXAfter sensational win over Seattle, part of the wagering community are not sold Arizona will have a follow up road effort and have sent the Cardinals from -7.5 to -6. While this is possible, what does Los Angeles have to play for on a 0-6 SU and ATS dry spell and just blowing game to San Francisco? Enough said. VIFW Take – Lean Arizona

BOWLS – Cotton - (277) WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. (278) WISCONSIN 1:00 ET ESPNBoth teams hold on to the ball in possessing for better than 34 minutes a contest, which can shorten a game, especially if the defenses are sound and the total has fallen a couple points to 52. Whether this total is higher or lower, it will depend upon if the offense generates big plays or not. Here is to thinking they will. VIFW Take – Lean Over

BOWLS – Sugar - (281) AUBURN vs. (282) OKLAHOMA 8:30 ET ESPNFor an 8-4 team, Auburn is being given a lot of credit in Sugar Bowl showdown with Oklahoma and has plummeted from +6 to +3. It is understood the Tigers will be healthier than they were the later stages of November and have the far better defense. However, have to consider Auburn was 2-4 SU versus other Power 5 conference bowl foes. VIFW Take – Oklahoma covers

RecordsBowls - 8-1College Best Bets– 22-15College Leans - 49-27-2

NFL Best Bets - 16-13NFL Leans - 25-17

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