Fondsprofessionell Fondskongress Mannheim 2. Feburar 2006 Nicholas Williams
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Transcript of Fondsprofessionell Fondskongress Mannheim 2. Feburar 2006 Nicholas Williams
Baring Asset Management Limited155 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3XY
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
Tel: +44 (0)20-7628 6000Fax: +44 (0)20-7638 7928www.baring-asset.com
Fondsprofessionell FondskongressMannheim 2. Feburar 2006
Nicholas Williams
Auf der Suche nach neuem Potenzial:
Outperformance mit europäischen Nebenwerten
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Relative performanceSmall Cap vs Large Cap
JCEEXU$/MSEXUK$FROM 1/1/99 TO 12/1/06 WEEKLY INDEXED
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
HIGH 155.554 23/ 9/05 LOW 89.683 5/10/01 LAST 151.206Source: DATASTREAM
Since 1/1/1999
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Relative PerformanceSmall Cap vs Large Cap
JCEEXU$/MSEXUK$FROM 1/1/90 TO 12/1/06 MONTHLY INDEXED
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0650
60
70
80
90
100
110
Source: DATASTREAMSince 1/1/1990
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Why European Mid and Small Cap?
FTSE 100
MSCI Europe
MSCI Europe Small Cap
MSCI Europe ex UK Small Cap
FTSE 250
FTSE Smaller Co's
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 5 10 15 20 25
Annual Volatility (% pa)
Annual
Retu
rn (
%pa)
Small and Mid Caps have generated higher return, with comparable volatility to large caps
European and UK Small and Mid Cap returns and volatility very comparable
Source: Baring Asset Management; Factset chart November 2005, based on index returns for last 7 years
Risk and Return (EUR)
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Smaller Companies –Riskier than larger companies?
Source: Cheuvreux
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Smaller Companies – Riskier than larger companies?
Source: Cheuvreux
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Valuation Small vs Large (Europe)
MSCI Europe ex UK
HSBC Europe ex UK
Small Cap Premium
P/E 2006 14.65x 19.17x +30.8%
P/E 2007 13.34x 15.81x +18.5%
P/B 2.48x 2.20x -11.3%
EPS Growth 06/05
9.54% 16.6% +7.06pp
-74%
ROE 18.5% 13.9% -4.6%
+24.9%
EV/EBIT 11.03x 13.4x +21.5%
Dividend Growth 05/04
10% 9% -1pp
+10%
Source: UBS, Factset
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Small Cap Premium –Forward P/E
Source: Cheuvreux
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Structural Changes in European Equity Markets
Improved disclosure standards
Corporate tax rate declining
Competition for investor attention
Improved financing
More active M&A environment
Decreased power of labour
Improved liquidity
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Structural ChangesLabour Costs
Source: UBS smallcaps charts
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Germany United Kingdom
Labour costs as a percentage of sales
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Small er Companies – Financing and M & A Attractions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E
Equity FCF Yield Av g Credit Yield
Eurozone equity free cashflow yield v average iBoxx € BBB credit yield
Source: UBS estimates; CreditDelta (UBS)
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M&A
Smallcap MidCap LargeCap
$mDeal Value # Deal Value # Deal Value #
2000 113,164.74 781 122,064.10 91 210,681.37 61
2001 71,251.99 602 44,031.73 44 118,654.43 44
2002 78,577.06 576 61,773.39 69 77,712.45 31
2003 72,186.99 643 59,765.55 67 106,544.44 42
2004 75,392.01 579 49,297.45 66 164,083.18 39
2005 67,078.16 509 64,253.83 74 255,841.86 79
Subtotal
477,650.94 3,690 401,186.04 411 933,517.73 296
Total 477,650.94 3,690 401,186.04 411 933,517.73 296
Source: Dealogic, UBS estimates. M&A deals by size of target company.
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Sector Variations – Small cap vs. Large Cap
MSCI Europe ex UK Large Cap
MSCI Europe ex-UK Small Cap
Difference
Industrials 9.75 24.68 14.93
Consumer Discretionary
16.72 9.91 6.81
Information Technology
11.80 5.89 5.92
Materials 8.01 6.27 1.74
Energy 6.81 7.15 -0.35
Consumer Staples 6.25 8.06 -1.81
Health Care 6.55 9.67 -3.12
Telecommunicat-ions Services
0.89 6.61 -5.72
Financials 17.46 30.60 -13.15
source: Factset, Baring Asset Management
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Market inefficiencies increasing
EU – Number of stocks researched down 15% from 2002
Source: Citigroup Small Cap Panorama February 2005
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004
Currently 17 analysts on average cover a large-cap stock
Currently 6 analysts on average cover a small-cap stock
Analyst Coverage
Source: Financial Times 8th November 2004
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Some Examples
Sell-side Analyst Coverage remains low despite good returns
Jan 2006 2005 2004
Banco Pastor 7 5 5
FBD Holdings 4 1 N/A
Mariella Burani 8 3 5
Source: Factset, Baring Asset Management
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Example – Current HoldingBanco Pastor S.A
Spanish domestic Spanish domestic retail bank network.retail bank network.
Initial purchase on Initial purchase on 24/2/05 at €26.9. 24/2/05 at €26.9. Target price €45.Target price €45.
Valuation ignored Valuation ignored strong growth, strong strong growth, strong B/S, speculative appeal.B/S, speculative appeal.
New 5 year plan New 5 year plan announced December.announced December.
Market Cap Market Cap €2,848m€2,848m
Source: Factset January 2006
See Important InformationSee Important Information
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Example – Current HoldingFBD Holdings
Irish domestic P & C Irish domestic P & C insurance group.insurance group.
Initial purchase 23/3/05 Initial purchase 23/3/05 at €21. Target price €28.at €21. Target price €28.
Valuation ignored Valuation ignored strong cash generation, strong cash generation, low combined ratio, low combined ratio, capital strength, organic capital strength, organic growth.growth.
Target price revised to Target price revised to €41 19/12/05 based on €41 19/12/05 based on continued growth, Irish P continued growth, Irish P & C market and & C market and combined ratio.combined ratio.
Market Cap Market Cap €1,517m€1,517m
Source: Factset January 2006
See Important InformationSee Important Information
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Example – Current HoldingsMariella Burani Fashion Group
See Important InformationSee Important InformationSource: Factset January 2006
Italian fashion retail Italian fashion retail and apparel groupand apparel group
Initial purchase Initial purchase 13/10/05 at 13/10/05 at €11.79. €11.79. Target price €16Target price €16
Strong management Strong management with venture approach with venture approach creating valuecreating value
Corporate restructuring Corporate restructuring ongoing highlights ongoing highlights discountdiscount
Market Cap €378mMarket Cap €378m
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Why Smaller Companies?
Stock specific factors have a far greater impact on the returns of smaller companies
Proportion of performance related to stock specific as opposed to macro factors
Source: Citigroup Small Cap Panorama March 2005
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Large Cap Small Cap
Stock specificfactors
Macro factors
90% of small companies’ historic returns have been driven by stock specific factors
Only 10% of smaller companies’ historic returns have been driven by macro factors
A bottom-up investment style addresses the key drivers of smaller companies’ returns
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41,3
33,6
7,1
30,9
6,6
35,9
Select % I ndex % Median %
29.428.5
-3,6
Baring Europe Select Trust Performance as at 30th December 2005
1 Jahr 3 Jahre* (%p.a.) 5 Jahre* (%p.a.)
Quartile 1 1 1
Source: Baring Asset Management, Standard & Poor’s. (bid to bid, in Euro, with net income reinvested), as at 30/12/2005. Baring Europe Select Trust is a UK Authorised Unit Trust managed by Baring Fund Managers Limited (authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Index is HSBC Smaller Companies Europe ex UK. Reference to the benchmark is for comparative purposes only. * Annualised. Median fund refers to the median fund listed within the peer Group as defined by Standard & Poors.
Standard & Poor’s:
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