Fondazione ISTUD
Transcript of Fondazione ISTUD
Fondazione ISTUDEnergia, ItaliaNuovi competitors e fonti alternativeDr. Piero Manzoni
CEO, Atel Energia S.p.A.
I Page 2 IAtel Energia I
Well Balanced Energy Supply
CommercialProfitability
EnvironmentalProtection
Reliability ofSupplyGrowing world population
Economic growth
Increase per capita energyconsumption
Development of energy prices
Structural change in industry
Increasing power demand
Parametersin Worldwide Power Generation
Deregulation / Liberalization
Globalization
Privatization
New requirements on powergeneration
Global Trendsin Worldwide Power Generation
SocialWelfare
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EU:• Emissions trading• Promotion of renewables• Balanced energy mix• Phasing out of nuclear energy
Competition: Well Balanced Energy Supply
…have a regionally different focus.
2006 D
USA
EU
2000
USA:• Security of supply through energy mix• Promotion of clean coal technologies• Promotion of renewables
Trends 2000:• Liberalization of electricity markets• Low energy prices• Generally conflict-free world politics• Anthropogenic environmental changes
in discussion
Trends 2000:• Liberalization of electricity markets• Low energy prices• Generally conflict-free world politics• Anthropogenic environmental changes
in discussion
Trends 2006:• Adapting processes to market liberalization• High energy prices• Conflict-filled world politics• Acknowlegdement of anthropogenic
environmental changes
Trends 2006:• Adapting processes to market liberalization• High energy prices• Conflict-filled world politics• Acknowlegdement of anthropogenic
environmental changesAsia
Asia:• Development of primary energy supply• Affordable energy• Environmental issues are not priority
EnvironmentProfitability
Reliabiltiy of Supply
NME
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Italy: Installed capacity and investmentsItaly is passing from a generation system inadequacy to an oversupplysituation. Terna projection of peak demand is skewed towards high increases.
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
2002 2006
48.9 58.9
79.3
89.4
Installed gross capacity
Average available capacityat peak
Peak demand
Cap
acity
in G
W
52.655.6
2010/12
69.2
102.2
66.0
+ 11 MW+ 11 MW
+ 15 MW+ 15 MW
elaboration and estimation on Terna public data
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Italy: Generation mixThe actual growth’s trend of gas driven generation continues in the mediumterm, thus increasing the dependence on gas
25%
50%
75%
100%
2002 2006 2010/12
Gas
OilHydro
Other renewableOther (derived gas, etc.)
elaboration on MSE , Terna, GSE and ENEA data
12%
35%
27%
14%
50%
11%
14%
5%
16%
55%
3%
15%
4%7%
Solid
3%6%
17%
6%
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Power Generation Costs by Types of Power Plants
Invest Costs(EUR/kW)
1700
900
500
900
6000
Type of Power Plant
Nuclear(1600 MW, 36%)
Hard Coal(700 MW, 45%)
Gas fired CCPP(800 MW, 58%)
Wind(> 1 MW)
Photovoltaics(1 MW)
8000
7000
5000
2500
2400
Full LoadHours (h/a)
Power Generation Costs(EURct/kWh) *)
4,0
4,6
6,5
7,8
::::
0,7
1,3
2,1
0,05 – 0,5
0,4
Operation-/ Total Costs
Hydro(700 MW) 5000 1800 5,6< 0,1
*) LCC: Life Cycle costs CO2 not consideredOil price at 90 USD
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WindConcentrated Solar Power
Possible tomorrow’s power mix
Privileged feed-in demandsload leveling
Low-carbon base-loadIntermediate-load/peak-loadCoal PP with high efficiencyIGCC (based on coal) with pre-combustion capturePost-combustion capture for retrofitNuclear PPHydro PP (running water)
CCPP:High efficiencyLow emissionsSteep ramp up
Comply with CO2 abatement policiesCO2 cap & trade, CO2 pricingMandatory Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)R&D fundingRenewables quotaNational nuclear program
Ensure reliable power supplyHigh efficiency and limited resource usageReduced dependence on fuel importsStable grid operationEconomic viability
CO2 abatement while maintaining reliability of supply would be feasible.
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Italy Renewable Generation: incentive and regulationItaly has to reach stringent target on renewable production, to do this there isa strong incentive policy
1992 1999 2005
• Main aim: to support private investments in the power sector• Started in 1992, feed in tariff for renewable and assimilated sources• Ended in 1999 but still in operation due to authorized plants before this data have not started operation
CIP6
• Main aim: to support only renewable sources (Biomass, Hydro, Wind and Bio Waste)• From 2002 power producers are obliged to cover the 2% of their thermoelectric production with
renewable sources (form 2004 to 2006 the obligation increased each year of 0.35%)• Operators can produce green certificates (12 years) with respect to their green production
GreenCertificates
• Main aim: to support photovoltaic development• Started in 2005, feed in tariff (20 years horizon)• The scheme is differentiated per size of plant and level of integration with
buildings (last modification in 2007)
“ContoEnergia”
2008
New GreenCertificatesscheme
• Main aim: to differentiate incentive per technology• 15 years horizon• It will start in 2009
Pöyry elaboration and estimation on public sources data
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Renewable generation – key factsThe investment wave in renewables is bound to continue and it is expectednot to be concentrated on wind technology only
20022002 20062006 EvolutionEvolution
• Starting operation of the Green CertificatesScheme
• All thermoelectric operators (no co-generative) with more than 100 GWhproduction have to cover 2% of theirgeneration with renewable sources
• Renewable production by IAFR sources isstill marginal with respect to GSE CIP6plants
• No market platform
• Starting operation of the Green CertificatesScheme
• All thermoelectric operators (no co-generative) with more than 100 GWhproduction have to cover 2% of theirgeneration with renewable sources
• Renewable production by IAFR sources isstill marginal with respect to GSE CIP6plants
• No market platform
• Green certificates can be tradable on theGME platform
• IAFR generation overtakes GSE CIP 6production
• From 2004 to 2006 the obligation forthermoelectric generation increased 0.35%per year (starting point 2%)
• Strong growth of new independentoperators
• Incentive based on GSE CV CIP6reference price
• Large development of wind production(already installed or planned)
• Green certificates can be tradable on theGME platform
• IAFR generation overtakes GSE CIP 6production
• From 2004 to 2006 the obligation forthermoelectric generation increased 0.35%per year (starting point 2%)
• Strong growth of new independentoperators
• Incentive based on GSE CV CIP6reference price
• Large development of wind production(already installed or planned)
• New green certificate mechanism no morelinked to CIP 6 incentive and differentiatedby technology
• Ambitious target for electricity generationby renewable sources up to 2020 (25%with respect to national electricity netdemand)
• Green certificate oversupply in the yearlynext years even though current plannedcapacity is not sufficient to meet targets
• More diversified portfolio of renewables isexpected
• New green certificate mechanism no morelinked to CIP 6 incentive and differentiatedby technology
• Ambitious target for electricity generationby renewable sources up to 2020 (25%with respect to national electricity netdemand)
• Green certificate oversupply in the yearlynext years even though current plannedcapacity is not sufficient to meet targets
• More diversified portfolio of renewables isexpected
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Power market – key factsThe path toward a more liquid market should accelerate, with thedevelopment of new market platform (physical and financial) on different timehorizons and the increase competition in the retail market
20022002 20062006 EvolutionEvolution
WHOLESALE MARKET• Not structured market platform• Free market composed by CIP6 revenues
and import capacity• Electricity contracts based on regulated
indexation (Ct or PG)
WHOLESALE MARKET• Not structured market platform• Free market composed by CIP6 revenues
and import capacity• Electricity contracts based on regulated
indexation (Ct or PG)
WHOLESALE MARKET• Development and evolution of IPEX• Limited participation by demand into the
market• No forward market• Strong role of AU in terms of CIP6 and
import purchases
WHOLESALE MARKET• Development and evolution of IPEX• Limited participation by demand into the
market• No forward market• Strong role of AU in terms of CIP6 and
import purchases
WHOLESALE MARKET• Forward market, both physical and
derivatives• Development of an intra-day market• Consolidation of carbon trading• Evolution of cross-border trading
WHOLESALE MARKET• Forward market, both physical and
derivatives• Development of an intra-day market• Consolidation of carbon trading• Evolution of cross-border trading
RETAIL MARKET• Free market for large industrial clients only• Enel large presence even if not so dominant
like in generation
RETAIL MARKET• Free market for large industrial clients only• Enel large presence even if not so dominant
like in generation
RETAIL MARKET• Free market to all commercial entities• Enel sold part of its distribution network
corresponding to around 2 mln clients• Switch costs decreasing and market opening
to new players
RETAIL MARKET• Free market to all commercial entities• Enel sold part of its distribution network
corresponding to around 2 mln clients• Switch costs decreasing and market opening
to new players
RETAIL MARKET• Full free market (also residential consumers)• Development of the competition in low
consumption sector (professional anddomestic)
• Market power consolidation of large playerswith over 1 mln clients
RETAIL MARKET• Full free market (also residential consumers)• Development of the competition in low
consumption sector (professional anddomestic)
• Market power consolidation of large playerswith over 1 mln clients
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European Market
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European Market