Floods Have Been Around for a Long Time -...

56
Floods Have Been Around for a Long Time

Transcript of Floods Have Been Around for a Long Time -...

Page 1: Floods Have Been Around for a Long Time - frmpw.nfrmp.usfrmpw.nfrmp.us/2010/docs/Workshop_Presentations/Effectively... · Vincent Covello. Risk (Flood) Flood ... Message Channels

Floods Have Been Around for a Long Time

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Babylon Lived with a Flood Threat

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Civilizations Have Grown Around Flood Infrastructure

Keeping Floods Away

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Floods Were Part of Early North American History

And People Adapted

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And Then Came Levees

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• H&A• Levees• 1927

“Levees Only”

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And More Recent US HistoryA Major Flood Occurred in 1927

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The Solution: Federal Levees;

Floodways; Revetment;

Dredging; Dikes; Dams

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•…flood control is a proper activity of the Federal Government -… the Federal Government should participate if the benefits to whomsoever they accrue are in excess of the estimated costs...

Congress Set the Policy Flood Control Act of 1928- Lower Mississippi ValleyFlood Control Act of 1936 - The Nation

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Some Thought of Other Approaches

Gilbert White

Jim Goddard

John Kennedy

Non-Structural

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And Legislated Programs• Disaster Relief• National Flood Insurance Program:

– 100 –year Standard– Local Land Use Control

• Unified National Program

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Flood Damage Reduction

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Mississippi River 1993

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Things were going along pretty well until 1993 when the nation saw the largest flood of the 20th century. The availability of 24-hour cable news put the flood in front of everyone for month after month and the nation recognized that it faced a severe flood challenge
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Grand forks natomas

Red River 1997

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Photo by J Korn

2001 Mississippi River

Presenter
Presentation Notes
And many more floods occurred on the Mississippi since 2001
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Katrina 2005

Presenter
Presentation Notes
We were all embarrassed when largest city in the mid-south when underwater
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2008 Midwest

Presenter
Presentation Notes
And then of course the Midwest floods of 2008 last cities like Cedar Rapids recognized the challenge of flooding
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• AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

Nashville 2010

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Standards-Oriented Approach

Technical Flood Control/Action fully functional for

Flood Q design

Choice of Design Flood Q design(e.g.100 yr flood, SPF)

Assumption: No Risk of Failure for Flood Q < or = Q design

and Negligible for Q > Q design

from Pahlow, Dietrich, Nijssen, Hundecha, Klein, Gattke, Schumann,Kufeld, Reuter, Köngeter, Schüttrumpf, Hirschfeld and Petschow

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Flood Losses

Now Add Stormwater!!

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Levees and Other Structures Have Provided Protection to Millions of People and Saved Billions of Dollars

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But Floodplain Development Including Levees Has Substantially Altered the Natural Environment (and Increased Risk)

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Managing Flood Risk in the US: How did we get where we are and where do we go?

February 26, 2008 St Paul, Mn

Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., PE, PhDWater Policy Collaborative, University of Maryland

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THE SPEAKER DOES NOT REPRESENT ANYONE OR ANY

AGENCY.

THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE HIS OWN AND DO NOT

REFLECT, NECESSARILY, THE POSITIONS THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND, THE ARMY CORPS

OF ENGINEERS OR ANYONE ELSE

Caution

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Flood Management in US  

Risk Based Management

Social, Goal Based Management

Standards Based Management

1% Chance Flood

NFIP1936 Flood Control Act

Risk, Uncertainty, Economics

Multi‐Hazard Management Homeland/ Security

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Paradigm Shift

• Considering the evolution and trends, the approach to natural hazards requires a change of paradigm. One must shift from defensive action against hazards to management of the risk and living with floods

European Flood Directors

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Reality• Flood protection is never

absolute and things can go wrong.

• Safety is available at a price - how much of the remaining risk has to be accepted by society?

European Flood Directors

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The 21st CenturyPopulation ExplosionPressures for Development with Limited Land Use ControlClimate ChangeMinimal Resources

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30

"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore”

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WHAT IS RISK?

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RiskA Threat to That Which We Value

Vincent Covello

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Risk (Flood)

Flood risk means the combination of the probability of a flood event and of the potential adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with a flood event

EU DIRECTIVE 2007/60/EC

Managing Flood Risk

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Risk-Oriented Approach

Risk of FailureHydrologicOperational

Affected Parties

100% Safety Cannot Be achieved by Technical

Means

Risk Management

from Pahlow, Dietrich, Nijssen, Hundecha, Klein, Gattke, Schumann,Kufeld, Reuter, Köngeter, Schüttrumpf, Hirschfeld and Petschow

Uncertainties

Unknowns

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Determining Risk

Probability of Occurrence

HazardConsequences

Probability of Performance

SystemRISK ~

Probability of Flooding

Vulnerability

Minimization MitigationImpact

Insurance, education,, communication

Levees, dams, floodwalls, evacuation, floodproofing., codes 

Managing Flood Risk

Probability of Conseqence

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Risk Reduction 

Tools

(Cumulative) 

INITIAL RISK

Insurance

Land Use Controls, Building Codes

Levees, Floodwalls, Floodways

Education and Social Impediment Reduction

Policy Development

Living with Floods –Recognizing and Managing Risk

Modified from USACE

Geotechnical Hydrologic and Hydraulic Data and Models

Risk

RESIDUAL RISK

Presenter
Presentation Notes
To live with floods, you must write it nice and manage the risk you face. This chart, initially conceived by Maj. Gen. Don Reilly of the Corps of Engineers, conceptually describes what we need to do. We need to identify the nature of the risk we face and then use all of the tools we have available to us to reduce that risk. As you can see the approaches that can be taken still include our structural approaches, the more standard nonstructural approaches, but now also include such things as policy development, risk communication, enhanced models that enable us to better understand the natural phenomena, and dealing with the challenges of a multiethnic community where not only language but also cultural norms dictate reaction to flood challenges.
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Challenges• How Calculate Risk?

• How Communicate Risk?

• How Prioritize Actions?

• How Decide What is Enough??

• Who Does What?

• Dealing with Watersheds and the Environment!

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Calculating Risk

• The Hazard Risk– Stationarity: Hydrologic, Hydraulic, Land Use, Growth

– Uncertainty

• The ‘System” Risk– Structural  Reliability: Dams, Levees, Other Structures

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Fragility

Sayers 2002

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Calculating Risk• The Hazard

– Stationarity: Hydrologic, HydraulicLand Use, Growth

– Uncertainty

• The ‘System”– Structural  Reliability; Dams, Levees, Other Structures

– Non‐Structural: Floodproofing, Elevation, Zoning, 

– System: Weakest Link

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Calculating Risk• Consequence Mitigation  (Probability of Being Effective)

–Measures: Insurance, Evacuation, Early Warning, Risk Communication, Education, etc

–Variables :

• Demographics: Age, Health, Knowledge, Language, Wealth, 

• Leadership–National–State/Local

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Presenter
Presentation Notes
In one reaction to the reduction in risk and the Riley stairstep, the state of California in its project called FloodSafe California, developed a multi-faceted initiative to improve public safety through integrated flood management. A big focus is the State-Federal system in the Central Valley and Desert, where considerable development exists behind levees. There is a general recognition of shared liability by all stakeholders, and areas of pursuit for reducing flood risk include such things as flood hazard zones and land use, building codes, mitigation banking, ecosystem restoration, maintenance, and annual flood risk notification. We are very excited by this practical example of buying down risk in action. What makes it even more interesting, is California’s assignment of a stuckee-an agency with responsibility-for each of the steps.
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Risk Communication Challenges

• Who Communicates?– Variations in messaging among agencies/level of government

– Who is more effective

• How Communicate– Flood Maps: Historic; Inundation; Risk

– Message Channels – Social Networking

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IPET 2009

Mapping

What Works?

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Who Gets What Level of Support

ORFarms

Cities

Where is Risk the Greatest?

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ALARP =As Low As Reasonably PracticableALARP = As Low As Reasonably Practicable.

What Is Tolerable Risk?

US: Tolerable<100  US deaths

World:Tolerable

.5000 deaths in Bangladesh

How Much Risk and To Whom?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
In dealing with risk, we find the most difficult challenge to be identification of what is tolerable risk. We recognize that the dam safety community has been working in this area for some period of time. We hope, over the next few months to develop some concepts of tolerable risk for levees to be incorporated into the national levee program.
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How far should public officials in a democratic society attempt to influence individuals –go beyond informing them‐ concerning risks and risk reducing actions?

National Research Council Committee on Risk (1989)

Democracy?

Who Decides?

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Public Policy  NetherlandsNo Catastrophes!

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The Royal Netherlands Embassy ‐Washington DC September 16, 2008

The Government of the Netherlands requested an independent Committee of State (the Delta Committee) to give its advice on flood protection and flood risk management in the Netherlands for the next century,..Large parts of the Netherlands lie below sea level and are even now experiencing the effects of climate change and sea level rise. The Netherlands delta is safe, but preserving this safety over the long term involves action now..

The Delta Committee has made ..recommendations to ‘future proof’ the Netherlands, 

Before 2050: The present flood protection levels of all 

diked areas must be improved by a factor of 10. 

How Much Risk and To Whom?

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Who Is Responsible for Flood Risk?

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Risk Reduction 

Tools

(Cumulative) 

INITIAL RISK

Insurance

Land Use Controls, Building Codes

Levees, Floodwalls, Floodways

Education and Social Impediment Reduction

Policy Development

RESIDUAL RISK

Living with Floods –Recognizing and Managing Risk

Modified from USACE

Geotechnical Hydrologic and Hydraulic Data and Models

Risk

Presenter
Presentation Notes
To live with floods, you must write it nice and manage the risk you face. This chart, initially conceived by Maj. Gen. Don Reilly of the Corps of Engineers, conceptually describes what we need to do. We need to identify the nature of the risk we face and then use all of the tools we have available to us to reduce that risk. As you can see the approaches that can be taken still include our structural approaches, the more standard nonstructural approaches, but now also include such things as policy development, risk communication, enhanced models that enable us to better understand the natural phenomena, and dealing with the challenges of a multiethnic community where not only language but also cultural norms dictate reaction to flood challenges.
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• Sharing Responsibility Is Collaboration• Collaboration Is Not Coordination• Collaboration Is Not Lurking

Coastal Restoration TeamNew Orleans, Louisiana

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Integrated Watershed Planning and Environmental Enhancement

Integrated Water Resources Managementincludes

Flood Risk ManagementNavigation

Water QualityWater Quantity

Sediment ManagementEnvironmental Restoration

RecreationETC

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Final Thoughts

• Flood risk management  is complex; It is not going to be easy

• Risk management provides insights and assistance in resource prioritization

• We are struggling with some issues; need help

• Collaboration is essential• Policy is key

– If you don’t know where you are                      going, it is awfully hard to get there

Managing Flood Risk

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What Must You Do?• Embrace this Change• Collaborate–hug a biologist• Keep yourself current – know what is

changing• Be persistent – you can do it• Educate others – in and out of your

field – Keep it simple!• Speak up when you should – remember

Challenger and Katrina• Be involved in Government and with

elected officials

You Make the Difference!

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