Flood Vulnerability Index - OIEau

Flood Vulnerability IndexFlood Vulnerability Index

Richard F. Connor

Japan Water Forum (JWF)

PACIFIC CONSULTANTS

Japan Water Forum (JWF)National Institute for Landand Infrastructure Management, Japan (NILIM)

Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd(PCKK)

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Background of the StudyBackground of the StudyIncreasing Impatcs Increasing Impatcs Climate ChangeClimate Change

Philippines Jul. Philippines Jul. ’’0202

China Jun. China Jun. ’’0202Source: AP

Source: APSource: http://www.qsr.mlit.go.jp/bousai/index_c19.html

Fukuoka, Japan Jul. Fukuoka, Japan Jul. ’’0303

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Background of the StudyBackground of the Study

Source: US Army Corps of Engineers

New Orleans, USA New Orleans, USA Aug. Aug. ’’0505

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FVI can be an important policy-making tool for1) raising public awareness,2) assisting governments in priority setting and3) guiding the international organizations in directions

of involvement.

Purpose of the studyPurpose of the study

Purpose:

Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) enables everyone to assess vulnerability to flood disaster at basin level.

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The Four Key ComponentsThe Four Key Components

ClimateComponent

HydrogeologicalComponent

Socio-EconomicComponent

CountermeasureComponent

FVIFVI

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These components might be categorized as belowThese components might be categorized as below

ClimateComponent



Frequency of heavy rainfallFrequency of heavy rainfall

Averaged slope of basinAveraged slope of basin

Urbanized area ratio in basinUrbanized area ratio in basin


Population on flood areaPopulation on flood areaTV penetration rateTV penetration rate

Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate

Population rate under povertyPopulation rate under poverty

Years sustaining healthy lifeYears sustaining healthy life

Literacy rateLiteracy rate

Investment amount for structural countermeasureInvestment amount for structural countermeasure

State of non-structural countermeasureState of non-structural countermeasure

FVI IndicatorsFVI Components

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Example of quantification of FVI indicator Example of quantification of FVI indicator Frequency of heavy rainfall Frequency of heavy rainfall •Data definition:

The number of days of heavy rainfall with more than 100mm/day in the basin in a year

•Data collection•Data from NOAA •Daily rainfall•13,000 observation points the past 11 years

Downloaded from the NOAA website (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html)

Fig. 13,000 rainfall observation points

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FVI equationFVI equationfor the for the major international major international river basinriver basinss

MSHCFVI −++=

)()()3()3( 1110987654321 IIIIIIIIIII +−++−+−−++×+×=

Frequency of heavy rainfall (more than 100mm/day)

Averaged slope of basin

Urbanized area ratio in basin

Population in flood area

TVpenetration rate

Infant mortality rate

Population rate under poverty

Years sustaining healthy life

Literacy rate

Investment amount for structural counter-measure

State of non-structural counter-measure

ClimateComponent




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FVI map of the major international river FVI map of the major international river basins (114 basins)basins (114 basins)

The lower the value, the better.

FVI scores are higher in South Asia and Africa.FVI scores are higher in South Asia and Africa.

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FVI in South AsiaFVI in South Asia

Mekong

Red River

Salween

Brahmaputra

Yangtze

Ganges

Irrawaddy

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Rader Chart of FVI ComponentsRader Chart of FVI Components

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0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00Climate

Hydrological

Socio-Economy

Countermeasure

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00Climate

Hydrological

Socio-Economy

Countermeasure

Rader Chart of FVI ComponentsRader Chart of FVI Components

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00Climate

Hydrological

Socio-Economy

Countermeasure

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00Climate

Hydrological

Socio-Economy

Countermeasure

South Asia Africa

Europe South America

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1. Assess flood vulnerability in any basin in the world by using easily collectable data

2. Better understand the complex nature of vulnerability

3. Compare basins and see how different factors influence vulnerability

4. To serve as a useful tool in considering long-term flood management policy

Potential ApplicationsPotential Applications

Application of Flood Vulnerability IndexApplication of Flood Vulnerability Indexin the Philippinesin the Philippines

Maria Catalina E. Cabral, Ph.D.

OIC-Director, Planning ServiceDepartment of Public Works and Highways, The Philippines

PACIFIC CONSULTANTS

Japan Water Forum (JWF)National Institute for Landand Infrastructure Management, Japan (NILIM)

Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd(PCKK)

Department of Public Works and Highways, The Philippines (DPWH)

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Flood Disasters in The PhilippinesFlood Disasters in The Philippines

Philippines Jul. Philippines Jul. ’’0202Source: AP

OrmocOrmoc City Nov. City Nov. ’’9191

Source: Water-Related disaster Threats in the Philippines by Resito V. David of FCSEC, DPWH.

Metro ManilaMetro Manila

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Problems to be solvedProblems to be solved in the field of flood controlin the field of flood controlin The Philippinesin The Philippines

Flood Disasters

Increase in poverty seriously

don’t know which basins are more vulnerable than the others

Reasonable allocation of budget is difficult.

Luck of public awareness

Less budget for flood control project

The negative linkage between poverty and flood disaster will be cut off.

FVI is here to solve the problem!FVI is here to solve the problem!

The more vulnerable basins can be distinguished.

Reasonable allocation of budget is possible.

Raising public awareness

More budget can be allocated for flood control.

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Flood Vulnerability IndexFlood Vulnerability Indexapplied for the river basins in The Philippines applied for the river basins in The Philippines

The FVI methodology was simply applied for the 18 major river basins in The Philippines.

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FVI IndicatorsFVI Indicators

Frequency of heavy rainfallFrequency of heavy rainfall

Averaged slope of basinAveraged slope of basin

Urbanized area ratio in basinUrbanized area ratio in basin

Population on flood areaPopulation on flood areaTV penetration rateTV penetration rate

Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate

Population rate under povertyPopulation rate under poverty

Years sustaining healthy lifeYears sustaining healthy life

Literacy rateLiteracy rate

Investment amount for structural countermeasureInvestment amount for structural countermeasure

State of non-structural countermeasureState of non-structural countermeasure

ClimateComponent




Most of the data source are from DPWH, PAGASA and NSO.

FVI IndicatorsFVI ComponentsThe data defined especially from the Philippines

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FVI equation for the major river basins in FVI equation for the major river basins in The PhilippinesThe Philippines

2

6223

11

10

9

4

3

21

∑

∑∑

=

== +×+×=

++=

nn

mm

ll

m

shc

I

III

MwSwHwCwFVI

ClimateComponent

HydrogeologicalComponent Socio-Economic

Component


Tropical cyclone passage 5-year average frequency

Averaged slope of basin

Highly urban and capital city area ratio in basin

Population density in basin

TV penetration rate

Infant mortality rate

Population rate under poverty

Years sustaining healthy life

Literacy rate

State of structural countermeasure

State of non-structural countermeasure

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The lower the value, the better.

Davao

FVI assessment resultFVI assessment resultAbulog

Abra

The FVI result shows the significant correlation between FVI and the annual casualties of 0.72.

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The most vulnerable river basinsThe most vulnerable river basinsThe three basins (Abra, Abulog and Davao) are assessed as the most vulnerable to flood disaster.

ClimateComponent




Abra basin and Abulog basin are the most vulnerable in terms of “Climate Component”and “Countermeasure Component”.

Davao basin is the most vulnerable in terms of “Hydrogeological Component” and “Countermeasure Component”.

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Tool for Guiding Policy

FVI can be an important policy-making tool for

1) raising public awareness,

2) assisting governments in priority setting

3) guiding the international organizations in directions of involvement.

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Conclusions and ChallengesConclusions and ChallengesFVI based on the Philippines’ data shows quantitatively the vulnerability of each basin.

We have reached at the starting point from which to prioritize activities aimed at reducing flood vulnerability.

FCSEC will continue the study with FVI to assess the flood vulnerability for 421 principal river basins annually or biennially.

Flood Vulnerability Index - OIEau

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