FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY
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Transcript of FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY
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FLOOD PROPAGATIONFLOOD PROPAGATIONUNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
J. Mulet – F. AlcrudoArea de Mecánica de Fluidos, CPS-Universidad de Zaragoza
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BASIC UNCERTAINTY APPROACH
• Run models on the three (upper, mid, lower) hydrographs provided in breach analysis
• Fixed bathymetry (1982)– Added comparison with 1998 bathymetry
• Different models/modellers
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UNCERTAINTY SIMULATIONS.UNCERTAINTY SIMULATIONS.
SIMULATION NUMBER OF CELLS CITY MODEL
CEMAGREF COURSE MESH 2611 VERTICAL WALLS*
UCL R-7 60911 VERTICAL WALLS
UDZ-1 (Mulet) ~ 20000 VERTICAL WALLS
SIMULATION NUMBER OF CELLS CITY MODEL
UDZ-2 (Murillo) ~ 40000 BOTTOM ELEVATION
1982 BATHYMETRY
1998 BATHYMETRY
REQUESTED RESULTS:
- WATER DEPTH HISTORY AT GAUGE/POINTS LOCATIONS
- DISCHARGE HYDROGRAPH THROUGH SECTIONS
- WATER DEPTH ENVELOPE OF 0.5 m AND 2 m
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DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.
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DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.
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EXPERIMENTAL SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED
PLATEAU LIKE EMPTYING
NOT BIG DIFFERENCES IN WATER SURFACE ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 1.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 1.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.77m)1982 MAX - MIN
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DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTABLE TO INTERPOLATION IN STEEP SLOPE AREA
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 2.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 2.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (2.67m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREOLD CINEMA
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 4.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 4.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (0.71m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURECONDES DE ORGAZ STREET
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 6.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 6.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.24m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREPROYECTO C STREET
- DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES STRESSED
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 7.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 7.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (~0m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREOLD CITY HALL
- SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED
- SIMILAR WATER ELEVATION FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 8.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 8.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.29m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURECLOCK´S SITE
RISE RATES ARE BETTER REPRODUCED WITH THE UPPER HYDROGRAPH
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 10.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 10.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (0.41m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREJÚCAR STREET
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 13.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 13.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (-1.12m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREVALENCIA STREET
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IMPORTANT BATHYMETRY EFFECT
(EVEN IF DIFFERENCES IN BOTOTM ELEVATION AT GAUGE ARE SMALL)GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE
1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (-1.17m)1982 BATHYMETRY
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
IMPORTANT DISCHARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 BATHYMETRIES
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (3.45m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
STRONG SCATTERING BETWEEN MODELS/MODELERS
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.4m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.7m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREBEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
NEARLY NO DISPERSION AT ALL
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (5.9m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURERIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACÁRCEL
NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.1m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREDOWNSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES
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ADDED RUNS
HID NUMBER OF CELLS
VALLEY FRICTION ZONES FRICTION CITY MODEL
UPPER- U ~ 20000 0.045 0.1 NONE
BASIC ~ 20000 0.025 0.1 VERTICAL WALLS
LOW-L ~ 20000 0.025 0.025 NONE
1982 BATHYMETRY
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UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPER
UDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
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UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPER
UDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
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UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPERUDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
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UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPERUDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
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UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.
CEM UPPER
UDZ-1 UPPER
CESI
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NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT INFLUENCE OF ADDED UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
EXTRA FRICTION EFFECTS ARE INCREASED DOWNSTREAM
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
FURTHER INCREASE DOWNSTREAM MAINLY DUE TO THE FRICTION ZONING (NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF BASELINE FRICTION)
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
- SAME WATER FLOW RATE FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES THROUGH SECTION 3 DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN WATER LEVEL
- SAME PEAK AS IN THE OUTFLOW TOUS DAM HYDROGRAPH
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREBEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURERIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACÁRCEL
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UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREDOWNSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
NO FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EFFECT
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CONCLUSIONS (Preliminary)
• Uncertainty sources considered (and proved relevant)– Model / Modeler– Bathymetry– Friction levels
• Specifically friction distribution/zoning• Baseline friction level not significant
• Uncertainty in urban area– Overall 2m (either water depth / water elevation)
• Uncertainty in valley– Considerably higher with strong differences– No clear indications as to comparative influence of considered
parameters/effects