risk-based evaluation of flood warning and preparedness systems
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Transcript of Flood Preparedness and GIS
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Term Paper
Challenges and limitations of Present Practices of flood preparedness system, and their
solution: A Case Study of Gowainghat Upazilla
Course Teachers
Ahmed Shahnewaz Chowdhury
Submitted by
Shah Jamal Akhlaque
Student ID : 1130719
Fall 2011
School of Environmental Science and Management,
INDEPENDENT University
Table of contents:
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Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………………04
Abstract………………………………………………………………………………05
Chapter# 01 Introduction…………………………………………………………….06
1.1 Background of the study………………………………………………06
1.2 Objective of the study…………………………………………………06
1.3 Research question……………………………………………………..06
1.4 Methodology…………………………………………………………..07
1.5 Quality consideration………………………………………………….08
1.6 Study area……………………………………………………………..09
1.7 Literature review………………………………………………………12
Chapter#02 Flood in Bangladesh and Gowainghat………………………………..…17
2.1 Disaster in Bangladesh………………………………………………...17
2.2 Floods in Bangladesh………………………………………………….18
2.3 Risk profile of Gowainghat……………………………………………25
2.4 Risk map of Gowainghat………………………………………………33
Chapter# 03 Present Practices of Flood Preparedness in the Study Area…………………..36
Chapter# 04 Limitations and Challenges of Present Practices of flood Preparedness……..42
4.1 At Different Stages of flood Preparedness…………………………..…42
4.2 Challenges at Different Stages of Flood Preparedness………………...43
4.3 Assessment of Need for Improvement…………………………………45
Chapter#05 Proposals for Improvement and Conclusion…………………………………….50
Chapter#06 References……………………………………………………………………….54
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List of charts, tables and pictures
List of Charts
1. Outline of the research methodology………………………………………………08
2. Yearwise coverage of flooded area during 1954-2008………………………………...19
3. Flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh…………………………………………36
4. Analysis of challenges………………………………………………………………….44
5. Analysis from the perspective of ideal situation………………………………………..48
6. Feasibility of using technology………………………………………………………....49
List of tables
1. Quality considerations……………………………………………………………..08
2. Comparative elevation status of different physical components………………………26
3. Water level of some rivers during the flood of 1988 and 1998………………………..28
4. Types of households and population…………………………………………………..29
5. Types of households and population in Gowainghat………………………………….31
6. Household structure wise population in Gowainghat upazilla………………………...31
7. Age and gender wise population in Gowainghat upazilla……………………………..32
8. Analysis from the perspective of failure……………………………………………….47
List of pictures
1. Administrative map of Gowainghat upazilla………………………………………10
2. Causes of floods in Bangladesh……………………………………………………22
3. Disasters in Bangladsh…………………………………………………………….23
4. Digital map of google earth showing maximum elevation of haors/ beels………..25
5. Google earth showing maximum elevation of households………………………..26
6. Google earth digital image measuring elevation of vital facilities………………..27
7. Households and roads of Gowainghat submerged in the flood water……….……28
8. Flood map of 2007…………………………………………………….…………..34
9. Risk map of Gowainghat upazilla…………………………………………………35
10.Flood in 2004 in Gowainghat…………………………………………………..…40
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Acknowledgement
This term paper has been prepared as a mandatory requirement for Master of
Science in Natural Resources and Disaster Management from the School of
Environmental Science and Management under Independent University.
The study has started in September 2011, and ended in December 2011.
Most of the information of this study has been collected through secondary
sources though some of the information has been collected through visits to the
study area, observation during visit and informal interview with concerned people
and experience of the reporter during his assignment in the study area.
Ahmed Shahnewaz Chowdhury, Assistant Professor, SESM, Independent
University has given his invaluable time for this study. This could never be
possible without his guidance.
Shah Jamal Akhlaque
Student ID# 1130719
School of Environmental Science and Management ,
Independent University, Dhaka
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Abstract
Bangladesh is a densely populated country so every disaster has significant
impact on it. Due to economic inability or limitation it is not possible for the
country to wait for the disaster to happen, and take corrective measure after that.
So preparedness and disaster risk reduction has always been the most feasible
means for the country against all types of disaster including floods.
It is needless to mention that flood is the most frequent and most
influential disaster in Bangladesh as most of the area of this country belongs to
flood plain. Due to its geographical location and topological attributes,
Gowainghat upazilla of Sylhet district is considered as one of the most vulnerable
upazillas of the country to flood. This upazilla has been taken as study area
mainly for three reasons (1) It is one of the most flood prone areas of the country
(2) Findings of this upazilla can be applicable to other upazillas of the country
including some of those in India, Sri Lanks, Myanmar, Vietnam and some other
parts of the world, and (3) The reporter of this study has worked in the area for more than five years and much familiar with disaster related activities in the area.
Present practices of flood preparedness are mostly manual with minimum
use of cutting edge technology and innovation. This dependence on human
interactions often gets stagnant due to widespread bureaucracy in the country as a
result people as well as the economy suffers. This study has collected
vulnerability related data from web-based GIS software like google earth and
secondary sources like Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. It has collected data on
present practices of flood preparedness through documents of Bangladesh
Disaster Management Bureau, news paper cuttings, field visits, informal
interview with people and government and non-government officials. Collected
data has been analyzed through different analysis techniques names Critical Path
Method (CPM), Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Concept
Fan, Technology and People Analysis etc.
The final outcome of this study is a set of recommendations based on the
drawbacks of present practices of flood preparedness. For better understanding of
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the recommendations a conceptual frame has also been discussed briefly at the
end of this report.
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Chapter# 1: Introduction
1.1 Background of the study
A disaster is defined as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a
society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which
exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own
resources. The natural disasters have become fast recurring phenomena all over the
world causing huge loss of human lives and crumbling impact on the economy of a
country. The importance of uncertainty in natural hazard risk management has
received recent attention. On an average 4,888 people are killed and 59 million
getting affected annually from various types of disasters.
Of all the natural hazards, floods occur most often and are the most widespread in
scope and severity in Bangladesh. It is observed that there is a fourfold rise during
last fifty years. High magnitude floods during the monsoon season are considered to
be Bangladesh’s recurring and leading natural disaster (Vishwas et al., 1994).
The study will focus on the development of an effective flood preparedness system in
Gowainghat upazilla of Sylhet district.
1.2 Objective of the study:
• Propose recommendations for an effective flood preparedness mechanism
based on drawbacks of present practices for the same.
1.3 Research question:
How challenges and limitations of present practices of flood preparedness in
Gowainghat upazilla can be addressed?
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1.4 Methodology
Based on the research question, three independent variable has been identified, which
are physical vulnerability of the upazilla to flood, present practices for flood
preparedness and challenges and limitations of present practices of flood
preparedness. The only dependent variable for this study is “GIS based measures to
be taken”.
Internet based GIS maps, data collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics,visit to the upazilla and discussion with concerned officilas were ways to collect
information related to the physical vulnueability of the upazilla to flood. On the
otherhand, present guideline of Disaster Management Bureau, standing order for
disaster and other policy guidelines has been used to identify ideal practices, and
practical experience of the author in the same upazilla and discussion with concerned
upazilla officials have been used to identify present practices for flood preparedness.
Lastly, reports of the NGOs, which worked in the upazilla during the flood of 2004,
comments of the upazilla Nirbahi Officer and some other upazilla level governmentand NGO officials, and visits to the affected upazilla during flood and discussion with
affected people have helped in collecting information related to the challenges and
limitatons of present flood preparedness activity.
Data collected from all the above sources have been sorted in tables, charts and
maps, and used for mapping and analysis. Knowledge on the subject matter learnt
through the courses of PPDM, INDEPENDENT University, and experience of
working in the study area for more than five years has been used to analyze data.
Exploration of possibility of using GIS in addressing identified challenges and
limitations has been done based on research reports on flood preparedness and use of
GIS identifying practices of GIS based flood preparedness in other parts of the world,
and name of the research have been mentioned in the literature review part of this
report.
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The methodology for the study can be summarized as follows-
Chart#01: Outline of the research methodology
1.5 Quality Considerations
Standard Measures
Truth value Structure of the study has been designed as per reports on similar types of
research done in Bangladesh, India, Netherlands and Costa Rica. Names of
these researches have been mentioned on the literature review, methodology and
reference section of this report.
Applicabilit
y
The recommendation of this study will be applicable to highly flood prone area,
particularly areas with peninsular attributes having hills and highlands around it.
One of the reason for this applicability is that the study has been designed basedon the study of similar types of areas.
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Consistency Data has been collected from most reliable sources like disaster management
bureau, Bangladesh Bureau of statistics, ITC, Google earth and other
organization with similar credibility. Recommendations have been made based
on academically accepted analysis methods and well documented experience
and practices in other countries.
Neutrality As data has been collected from trusted and well acceptable secondary sources
there will be negligible scope of potential biases or interference of the
researcher out of the process.
Table# 01: Quality consideration
1.6 Study Area:
Gowainghat Upazila (sylhet district) with an area of 486.10 sq km, is bounded by
Meghalay state of India on the north, sylhet sadar and jaintiapur upazilas on the south,
Jaintiapur upazila on the east, companiganj (Sylhet) upazila on the west. Main rivers are
Sari, Goyain, piyain, Ichamati, Kapna, and dauki; Nainda, Tilgulli, Lenguda, Kurshanti
are main haors; Chatla, Shildikuri, Harinmara are main water bodies. Jafflong is an
important tourist spot. Tamabil land port is used for importing coal and other goods from
India.
Gowainghat (Town) consists of 2 mouzas. It has an area of 3.51 sq km. It has a
population of 4111; male 52.44%, female 47.56%; density of population is 1171 per sq
km. Literacy rate among town people is 22.7%.
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Picture#01: Adiminstrative map of Gowainghat upazilla
Administration: Gowainghat thana, now an upazila, was established in 1908.
The upazila consists of 8 union parishads, 260 mouzas and 264 villages.
Religious institutions: Mosques 400, temple 20, church 2.
Demography: Population 169937; male 51.58%, female 48.42%. Muslim 89.2%,Hindu 8.9%, Buddhist 0.6%, Christian 0.4% and others 0.9%; ethnic nationals:
1953 Khasis at Jaflong.
Literacy and educational institutions: Average literacy 18.1%; male 23.6%,
female 12.6%. Educational institutions: college 1, secondary school 15, primary
school (government) 85, satellite school 4, adult literacy centre 2. Gowainghat
High School is a notable educational institution.
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Main occupations: Agriculture 50.16%, fishing 2.36%, agricultural labourer
17.64%, wage labourer 9.43%, commerce 6.53%, service 3.09%, others 10.79%.
Land: Usable land 26639.01 hectares; fallow land 9199.11 hectares, khash land
1020.39 hectares; single crop 46.90%, double crop 50.68% and triple crop land
2.42%. Land controls among the peasant, 23.43% are landless, 43.16% marginal,
27.00% intermediate, and 6.41% rich. Value of land Market value of the first
grade agricultural land is about Tk 85000 per 0.01 hectare.
Main crops: Paddy, mustard seed, tea, betel leaf.
Extinct and nearly extinct crops: Tisi (linseed), Til,(sesame), cassia leaf are
entirely extinct; Taykar and Satkara are nearly extinct.
Other sectors: Fisheries, dairies, poultries Fishery 8, dairy 2 and poultry 15.
Manufactories Stone crushing plant 25, rice mill 30, brick field 3, tea processing
factory 1, saw mill 2. Cottage industries Mats, popularly known as Shital Paty, are
made from Murta (one kind of cane). Different kinds of household goods are
made from bamboo and cane. Hats, bazars and fairs Hats and bazars are 20, most
noted of which are Gowainghat, Radhanagar, Jaflong, Ballaghat, Hadarpar,
Salutikar.
Communication facilities: Roads: pucca 49.24 km and mud road 361.4 km.
Traditional transport Palanquin and bullock cart. These means of transport are
extinct or nearly extinct.
NGO activities: brac, grameen bank , Concern, caritas, CARE, FIVDB, Hunger.Health centres Upazila health centre 1, rural health centre 11, family welfare
centre 5, charitable dispensary 1.
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1.7 Literature Review
As a high tech and cost effective solution for flood preparedness, this study has given
much emphasis on Geographic Information System (GIS). A good percentage of
literatures reviewed for this study were on GIS, use of GIS as tools for disaster
preparedness as well as for flood preparedness.
1.7.1 Geographical Information Systems
A GIS is a system for capturing, storing, checking, integrating, manipulating, analyzing,
and displaying data which are spatially referenced to the Earth," (Department of theEnvironment, 1987). Remote Sensing involves the use of aircraft or satellites to collect
photographs or scanned images of the Earth's surface. High resolution remote sensing
data may produce the best results; however, they are typically expensive. It is one of the
objectives of this study to assess methodologies for rapidly producing regional (1:250,000
to 1:50,000 scale) geo-hazard risk maps and deriving information from free or low cost
remotely sensed imagery. Landsat Thematic Mapper data (TM) and Enhanced Thematic
Mapper (ETM+) multi-spectral imagery are used, along with Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) derived elevation data. Landsat and SRTM datasets are free, easily
accessible, and have almost total global coverage (Teeuw et al., 2005). GIS have had a
slower uptake in less developed countries due to lack of hardware, resources, and human
capital (Andrews Deller, 2007). Satellite 24 Journal of Maps Student Edition, 2008, 23-38
Morris, N. remote sensing is usually the most up to date source of data and information
for earth resources. It is synoptic, and it allows regional studies to be undertaken
relatively cheaply and quickly. With the use of GIS and remote sensing, the possible
impacts of natural phenomena (such as oods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides, and
volcanic eruptions) on buildings, populations, and infrastructure can be modeled and
visualized. GIS and remote sensing are powerful tools for analyzing hazards,
vulnerability, and risks, and then producing direct disaster scenarios which in turn help
disaster managers. Simple, low cost GIS systems can allow local authorities to more
effectively manage areas impacted by hazards, incorporate local knowledge, and ensure
community participation.
1.7.2 GIS as a tool for disaster preparedness
GIS is a computer based system capable of assembling, storing, manipulating, and
displaying geographically referenced information. However, the definition by NASA
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seems to cover all aspects which state that GIS is an integrated system of computer
hardware, software and trained personnel linking topographic, demographic, utility,
facility, image and other resource data that is geographically referenced. GIS technology
supports spatial data handling and analysis efficiently and can be used to create an
integrated geo-database on biological (agriculture), meteorological (rainfall), hydrological
(water resources), socio-economic (population) indicators, etc. for their subsequent use in
modeling the simple/ complex disaster related indices to reflect the vulnerability of an
area to the disaster.
GIS based system can be used as an integrated administrative and decision support
system to respond to the immediate humanitarian and disaster relief operation during and
after the event. Disaster management techniques are based on the economic status of the
country and hence mapping and information acquisition is vital for disaster management.
GIS supports all aspects of disaster management. Disaster planning, response, mitigation,
and recovery all become more efficient through the use of GIS (Suresh et al.,
2005).Government of Bangladesh constituted a High Powered Committee for the efficient
implementation of disaster management strategy, according to which about thirty
disasters have been categorized into five sub groups. They are as follows:
Water and climate related hazards
Geologically related hazards
Chemical, Industrial and Nuclear related disasters
Accident related disasters
Biologically related disasters.
Further, GIS for disaster management helps in the following activities:
-Visualization of spatial distribution of events during the occurrence of a
disaster.
- Identification of location of various service centers in the affected area.
- Maintenance of critical communication linkages between affected areas
with rest of the world.
- Facilitate continuous monitoring of the situation and feedback response.
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- Help modeling of different disaster situations and identify corresponding
vulnerable areas and risk zones.
Emergency management poses significant challenges for data collection, data
management, discovery, translation, integration, visualization and communication.
Emergency management can be managed well through spatial planning and one requires a
GIS for such a management. Effective emergency management requires the thorough use
and understanding of the semantics of the heterogeneous information sources with their
many differences:
1.7.3 GIS for flood preparedness:
Geographic Information System (GIS) is an extremely powerful tool for the management
of flood regardless topological attributes of the area being covered. It is equally effective
in all the phases of flood preparedness. Its use in mapping topological flood risk and flood
forecasting is immense. It plays, also, a crucial role in flood monitoring through mapping
of inundated area using remote sensing.
1.7.4 Literature used for the study
Following documents were reviewed during preparation of this study-
1. Disaster Preparedness using IT Tools: Case Studies on the use of ICT
and GIS Derived tools for Micro-Level Drought Preparedness. Sreedhar
Ganapuram#1, R Nagarajan*2, V Ramnaresh Kumar #3, N Lavanya #4,Asil Gerard Sylvester #5 , V. Balaji #6 #ICRISAT, Patancheru 502 324:
Some ideas taken from this study has been recommended for flood
preparedness in this study.
2. FLOOD EMERGENCY PLANNING: World Meteorological
Department: Some tools of this report has been used for analysis.
3. GIS based Flood Management-Case study of Allahabad City: Syed
Hasan Abbas, Research Scholar ,Research Scholar, Department of civil
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Engineering MNNIT Allahabad : This study report has been used in
designing the structure of this study.
4. Ideal location for food shelter: a geographic information systemapproach
J. Sanyal1 and X.X. Lu2 1 Department of Geography, Taki Government
College, Taki, West Bengal, India 2 Department of Geography, National
University of Singapore, Singapore: Some ideas of this study has been
used for analysis.
5. Realtime web-based remote sensing and GIS for flood management
jointly done by ministry of planning, Khulna University and Bangladesh
University of Engineering and Technology: Ideas of this report has been
used to collected and analyze data. Some recommendations were also
extracted from here.
6. GIS Technology for Disaster and Emergency Management: by Russ
Johnson. Published by ESRI: This literature has been studied for better
understanding of GIS and its use in disaster management particularly for flood
preparedness.
7. Challenges for GIS in Emergency preparedness and Response. Published
by ESRI: This report has been used to assess the effectiveness and feasibility
of GIS technology in flood preparedness.
8. Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic
West Bengal, India: This study has guided in analyzing the flood hazard of
Gowainghat.
9. Low-cost remote sensing and GIS for regional disaster risk reduction,
North West Costa Rica by Naomi Morris: Ideas of this report has been used
to collected and analyze data. Some recommendations were also extracted
from here.
10.GIS as a tool in emergency management process by Leonid V. Stoimenov, Member, IAENG , Aleksandar Lj. Milosavljević, and Aleksandar S.
Stanimirović: This paper has showed how GIS could be used to supportdecision making in emergency risk management.
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11.GIS based natural disaster mapping: A case study by O. Avsar a,*, Z.
Duran a, D. Z. Seker a, M. Hisir a, M. Shrestha b : Guided to assess the
flood hazard of Gowainghat upazilla.
12.Bangladesh: Flood Management: This study was very useful Information is provided about the approach and long-year experience on flood managementin that country, with strategies that have seen continuous change after anumber of disastrous floods. This was particularly useful in understanding thedynamics of flood preparedness in Bangladesh.
13.The use of GIS as disaster preparedness and response tool: The Universityof West Indies: Guided to explore possible GIS based solution for flood preparedness.
14.Geo-Informaton for Disaster Management by Peter Van Oosterom andothers: This literature guided on the ways to collecting and analyzing GISdata.
15.Role of remote sensing in disaster management: Nirupama, PhD: Thisinformation literature covered all the ways of using remote sensingtechnology and disaster management. Ideas of this book have been focus onflood related preparedness in this study.
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Chapter# 2.0: Flood in Bangladesh and Gowainghat
2.1 Disaster in Bangladesh
Bangladesh being situated in a region of the floodplains of the mighty rivers the
Ganges-Padma, Brahmaputra-Jamuna and the Meghna commonly known as G-B-M
is predominantly a flat terrain except for the fringes along the north, north-eastern and
the eastern regions along with the pleistocene terraces of Barind tract and the
Modhupur tract. The Bay of Bengal bounds the country's 750 km coastline in the
south. The funnel shaped size of the Bay of Bengal and the low elevation of the
coastal region induces the cyclones hit Bangladesh with more vigour than usual. The
major trans-boundary rivers, G-B-M, drain all its water from about 88% of its
catchment area lying outside the country. This along with the heavy rainfall area
outside makes the country vulnerable to flash floods, high floods and at times
prolonged floods.
The cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal often leave trails of devastation along
the coastal region of Bangladesh. It damages the lives and properties including crops
and infrastructure in the area. These cyclones (March-May & Oct-November) are
being monitored through the satellites taking images several times a day. The
cyclones generate surges up to a height of several meters which sweep through the
flat coastal region killing people, animals and destroy other fauna and flora. The surge
height can also be estimated from the satellite analysis. Tornadoes often formed atdifferent placed, however are difficult to be located ahead of occurrence because of
their small size and short duration.
The monsoon clouds (July-October) are being traced from the satellite images and the
rainfall is being predicted in and around the country. The high downstream flow of
the major rivers from the catchment area during monsoon adds to the misery of the
people by causing flood. At times there are heavy downpours along the hilly region
and the sudden onrush of water causes flash flood. The coincidence of high
downstream flow in all the three major rivers along with the local (in-country) rainfall
causes devastating floods. Droughts cause delay in agricultural processes and
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sometimes inflict heavy loss of production. The floods and the droughts are somehow
related to the El- Nino La- Nina situations.
Erosion is another disaster that prevails much in Bangladesh. About 75 rivers are
continuously eroding banks and depositing silt and sand along their courses. The river
erosion play havoc in certain areas where dwelling houses, fertile agricultural lands
and infrastructure are all taken into the river. This renders the affected people to
absolute destitution. Remote sensing techniques are being applied to monitor the
vulnerable areas for erosion and predictions are also being made. These erosions
occur predominantly along the major rivers and the coastal region of Bangladesh.
Landslide is another event that causes lives and damages properties particularly
during the monsoon. The hilly regions are often cleared of their vegetation and forest
for economic reasons. Inconsiderate cutting down of the hills causes landslides in the
Sylhet and Chittagong region of the country. These activities can also be monitored
from temporal analysis of satellite data. The environmental changes thus caused by
human actions, deforestation, land use changes in Bangladesh which hinders
agricultural productions.
Earth quakes in minor forms have been happening in the hilly regions particularly
in the Chittagong area that threatens Bangladesh of an impending disaster. The
Government of Bangladesh have been extremely alert and actions are being taken to
establish sysmological stations at different places in the country. Forest fire has not
yet posed serious problems here except for the Magurcherra incident.
2.2 Floods in Bangladesh:
Bangladesh is one of most flood prone areas of the world. The South-Asian country of
Bangladesh is prone to the natural disaster of flooding due to being situated on the
Ganges Delta and the many tributaries flowing into the Bay of Bengal. The coastal
flooding twinned with the bursting of Bangladesh's river banks is common and severely
affects the landscape and Bangladeshi society. 75% of Bangladesh is less than 10m above
sea level and 80% is flood plain, therefore rendering Bangladesh a nation very much at
risk of further widespread damage despite its development, especially as its present flood
defenses are unsustainable and somewhat amateur. Flooding normally occurs during the
monsoon season from June to September during the monsoon. The convectional rainfall
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of the monsoon is added to by relief rainfall caused by the Himalayas. Meltwater from the
Himalayas is also a significant input and flood every year.
Each year in Bangladesh about 26,000 km2, (around 18%) of the country is flooded, so far
killing over 5000 people and destroying 7 million homes. During severe floods the
affected area may exceed 75% of the country, as was seen in 1998. This volume is 95%
of the total annual inflow. By comparison only about 187,000 million m3, of streamflow
is generated by rainfall inside the country during the same period. The floods have caused
devastation in Bangladesh throughout history, especially during the years 1966, 1987,
1998 and 1988. The 2007 South Asian floods also affected a large portion of Bangladesh.
Small scale flooding in Bangladesh is required to sustain the agricultural industry, as
sediment deposited by floodwaters fertilises fields. The water is required to grow rice, so
natural flooding replaces the requirement of arteficial irrigation, which is time consuming
and costly to build. Salt deposited on fields from high rates of evaporation is removed
during floods, preventing the land from becoming infertile. The benefits of flooding are
clear in El Niño years when the monsoon is interrupted. As El Nino becomes increasingly
frequent, and flood events appear to become more extreme, the previously relaiable
monsoon may be succeeded by years of drought or devastating floods. Also some 3
thousand people were left homeless or killed.
Chart#02:: Year-wise coverage of flooded area during 1954-2008
Source: Bangladesh Water Development Board
BWDB has calculated the flooded area of Bangladesh every year from 1954 and until
2008. For an area to be included in the flooded area it needs only to be flooded at one
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incidence during the considered monsoon season, i.e. the areas contributing to the flooded
area was not necessarily flooded at the same time. There were e.g. six separate floods
within the 1987 rainy season and three in 1988. The flooded area calculated by BWDB is
mostly related to some kind of damage, it may be damage to crops, houses, escape of fish
stocks etc. BWDB divide flood into severe, moderate and normal flood, where normal
means no damage. If a Thana is severely flooded then BWDB assumes as a thumbs rule
that 35-40% of the Thana is flooded, but the percentage is increased as water level
increases based on human judgment. During the stressing 1988- and 1998-flood the
percentage was increased considerably as water levels were far above danger level.
Approximately 18% of Bangladesh is river, lake or other water bodies and this area is in
general not included in the given flood area. As should be clear from the above
explanation the informed flood area by BWDB is not a very precise number. Presently
FFWC is working on producing flood maps on the basis of satellite pictures. It will enable
the centre to give consistent, precise and instantaneously information on flooded area.
2.2.1 Categories
In Bangladesh following types of floods are normally encountered.
Flash floods in the eastern and northern rivers are characterized by a sharp risefollowed by a relatively rapid recession, often causing high flow velocities that
damage crops and property.
Local floods due to high localized rainfall of long duration in the monsoon season
often generate water volumes in excess of the local drainage capacity, causing
localized floods due to drainage congestion.
Monsoon floods from the major rivers generally rise slowly and the period of rise
and fall may extend from 10 to 20 days or more. Spilling through distributaries
and over the banks of the major rivers causes the most extensive flood damage,
particularly when the three major rivers rise simultaneously.
Floods due to storm surges in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, which are
generated by tropical cyclone, cause extensive damage to life and property. These
cyclones are predominant during the post-monsoon (October and November) and
pre-monsoon (April to June) period.
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2.2.2 Flood history
In the 19th century, six major floods were recorded in 1842, 1858, 1871, 1875,
1885 and 1892. Eighteen major floods occurred in the 20th century. Those of
1987, 1988 and 1955 were of catastrophic consequence. More recent floods
include 2004 and 2010.
The catastrophic flood of 1987 occurred throughout July and August and affected
57,300 km2 of land, (about 40% of the total area of the country) and was
estimated as a once in 30-70 year event. The flood's main cause was the creation
of Erranticophrus (top soil wash away reaction) from the inhabitants of the
Himalayas irrigating their mountains vertically. The seriously affected regions
were on the western side of the Brahmaputra, the area below the confluence of the
Ganges and the Brahmaputra and considerable areas north of Khulna.
The flood of 1988, which was also of catastrophic consequence, occurred
throughout August and September. The waters inundated about 82,000 km2 of
land, (about 60% of the area) and its return period was estimated at 50–100 years.
Rainfall together with synchronisation of very high flows of all the three major
rivers of the country in only three days aggravated the flood. Dhaka, the capital of
Bangladesh, was severely affected. The flood lasted 15 to 20 days.
In 1998, over 75% of the total area of the country was flooded. It was similar to
the catastrophic flood of 1988 in terms of the extent of the flooding. A
combination of heavy rainfall within and outside the country and synchronization
of peak flows of the major rivers contributed to the river.
The 2004 flood was very similar to the 1988 and 1998 floods with two thirds of
the country under water. The capital city of Dhaka was literally swimming in
sewage like rats.
Dozens of villages were inundated when rain pushed the rivers of northwestern
Bangladesh over their banks in early October 2005. The Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer on Terra satellite captured the top image of the
flooded Ghaghat and Atrai Rivers on October 12, 2005. The deep blue of the
rivers is spread across the countryside in the flood image.
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Picture# 02: Causes of floods in Bangladesh has been visualized through above illustration
2.2.3 Causes of floods in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is one of the world most densely populated country and one of the
most susceptible countries to flood disasters. It also has one of the three most
powerful rivers passing though it Ganges, Meghna and Brahmaputra. About one
half of the land area in Bangladesh is at an elevation of less than 8 meters above
sea level. Up to 30% of the country has been covered with flood waters. In 1991
more 200,000 deaths resulted from flooding and associated tropical cyclones.
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Picture# 3: Disaster in Bangladesh
Photo courtesy USAID
There are many physical and human causes that allowed the floods to be worse; such as:
The Physical Causes of the Floods:
• Most of the country consists of a huge flood plain and delta.
• Snowmelt from the Himalayas takes place in late spring & summer.
• 70% of the total area is less than 1 meter above sea level.
• 10% of the land area is made up of Lakes and Rivers.
• Bangladesh experiences heavy monsoon rains, especially over the highlands.
• Tropical storms bring heavy rains and coastal flooding.
• The main cause was the above average & long period of heavy rain which caused
all 3 rivers to have their peak flow at the same time.
• In the spring, melting snow from the Himalayas further increases the flood risks
as torrents of melt water enter the rivers at their source.
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The Human Causes of the Floods:• Deforestation in Nepal and the Himalayas increases run off and add to deposition
and flooding downstream.
• Urbanization of the flood plain has increased magnitude & frequency of floods.
• Global warming is blamed for sea level rise, increased snow melt & increased
rainfall in the region.
• The building of dams in India has increased the problem of sedimentation in
Bangladesh.
• Poorly maintained embankments (levees) leak & collapse in times of high
discharge.
• Increasing population pressure in Bangladesh itself has resulted in the sinking of
many new wells resulting in the lowering of the water table and the subsequent
subsidence of land making it even more prone to flooding.
2.2.4 Effect of flooding in Bangladesh:
2.2.4.1 Economy
Economic loss
○ The flooding in Jiangxi of China in 1998 caused great damage. The economic loss
was HK$156 billion, 400 buildings surrounding the lake were inundated, leaving
more than 1 million people homeless.
Resources used in reconstruction
○ After flooding, government has to input many resources for aiding or
reconstruction, e.g., police force, fire control, aid worker, resources used for
resisting flood, etc. This also brings loss to society.
2.2.4.2 Environment
Traffic
○ Flooding will lead to the damages of roads, collapse of bridges or traffic
congestion, which may affect the daily operation.
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Damaging the farmland
○ Flooding brings too much water which will cause damage to farmland.
2.2.4.3 Human Beings
People died and lose their homes
○ Flooding will cause death and injuries. In year 1998, 0.23 billion of people were
affected in the flooding of Xian, including 3 thousands people dead, 1 million of
people lost their homes. In 1996, the monsoon flood in India affected more than
five million people in the northern and eastern part of the country. Severe floods
have also killed some 200 people in India and Bangladesh and left millions
homeless and starvation.
2.2.4.5 Disease
Flooding usually brings infectious diseases, e.g. military fever, pneumonic plague,
dermatopathia, dysentery, common cold (type A), breakbone fever, etc. And for those
areas which have no electric supply due to flooding, food poisoning may occur as
food may not be properly frozen.
2.3 Risk Profile of Gowainghat:
Different studies (as referred in the literature review section of this report) suggested to
consider elevation, geographic location, infrastructure, types of households and economy
as a whole to assess the physical vulnerability of any area to flood.
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2.3.1 Physical Vulnerability:
Picture# 04: Digital map of google earth showing maximum elevation of haor/ beel areas
As per the data presented in table#02, Gowainghat upazilla is a low elevation area as a
whole. Average elevation of the area is 47.5ft from the sea level whereas average
elevation of all the rivers in the area is 36ft from the sea level. On the other hand average
elevation of the roads in the upazilla is also only 39.5 ft from the sea level, which is only
3.5 ft high from the average river level. Average elevation of households is only 11.5 ft
high from the river level though minimum elevation of households is 1ft lower than
minimum river elevation, and 11 ft lower than the maximum elevation of river elevation.
Sl Type Lowestelevation
in flfrom sea
level
Highestelevationin fl fromsea level
Averageelevationin fl fromsea level
Coverage Possibility of being
affected
1 Haor and beels
39 44 41.5 7890.63 acres Very high
2 Households 30 65 47.5 34133 High
3 River 31 41 36 - -
4 Vital facilitiesand towns
37 61 49 Around Salutikar and upazillaheadquarter
Low
5 Roads 32 47 39.5 Kacha-203 km,Pakka-26 km
Medium
6 Tea gardens 56 94 75 4 gardens Very low
7 Total area 30 65 47.5 486.10 sq km in flfrom sea level
Medium
Table#02: Comparative elevation status of different physical components*1
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Haor/ beel
Showing elevation
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Picture#05: Google earth image is showing the maximum elevation of households
1
Picture#05: Google earth digital image mueasuring elevation of vital facilities
Flood level of this upazilla is influenced by water level of some rivers which is flowing in
the upazilla or around it.Bangladesh as well as the upazilla experienced severe flood in
1 Source: Population Census-2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet
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1988 and 1998. Comparative status of water flow in these rivers during that time can be
summarized as follows-
River StationRecorded
Maximum
Danger Level
(m)
Peak of the Year (m) Days above Danger Level
1998 1988 1998 1988
Jamuna Bahadurabad 20.62 19.50 20.37 20.62 66 27
Jamuna Serajganj 15.12 13.35 14.76 15.12 48 44
Old
Brahmaputra
Jamalpur 18.00 17.00 17.47 17.83 31 8
Old
Brahmaputra
Mymensingh 14.02 12.50 13.04 13.69 33 10
Surma Kanaighat 15.26 13.20 15.00 15.10 73 75
Surma Sylhet 11.95 11.25 11.72 11.95 14 21
Surma Sunamganj 9.46 8.25 8.90 9.30 56 62
Kushiyara Amalshid 18.28 15.85 17.61 17.50 54 65
Kushiyara Sheola 14.33 13.50 14.14 14.09 37 80
Manu Manu Rly Br 19.39 17.07 18.63 18.95 6 66
Manu Moulvi Bazar 13.25 11.75 11.68 13.01 NA 25
Khowai Habiganj 11.55 9.50 11.44 11.00 8 14
Upper Meghna Bhairab Bazar 7.66 6.25 7.33 7.66 68 68
Gumti Comilla 13.56 11.75 12.90 12.79 11 17
Table#03: Water level in some rivers during the floods of 1988 and 1998
If we analyze data of the above table in light of the elevation presented earlier in this
section we will find that most of the households, roads, vital facilities went under water in
both occasions. Flood of 2004 was less severe than those in 1998 and 1988, but this
upazilla could not survive due to its low elevation. Following picture taken during the
flood in 2004 shows how households and roads are submerging to flood water.
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Picture#07: Households and roads of Gowainghat were submerged to flood water during the flood of 2004
2.3.2 Infrastructure:
Gowainghat is considered as one of the poorest upazillas of the country, which is well
reflected in its infrastructure present in the table below. 79.90% of the total households
are kutcha, and 97.967% of total households are not pucka meaning 202219 out of
207170 people, which means 97.61% of total population are living in unprotected
households, which do not have capacity withstand high velocity flood water.
Locality and typesof structures All structures Jhupri Kutcha Semi-Pucka Pucka
ALL AREA 34133 2970 27274 3195 694
Population 207170 16410 164051 21758 4951
Dwelling 33635 2904 26954 3141 636
Population 204521 16085 162409 21464 4563
Institution 142 16 65 22 39
Population 975 95 438 167 275
Urban 818 25 564 164 65
Population 4568 145 3251 808 364
Rural 33315 2945 26710 3031 629
Population 202602 16265 160800 20950 4587
Table#04: Types of households and population associated with it *22
2 Source: Population Census-2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet
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This upazilla has only 26km of pucka road against 203 kms of kutcha road. In most of the
cases, these roads went through haors and beels having vast water body around it since
these roads are mostly kutcha, and becomes completely damaged due to water force fromall the four directions.
As per above table, only 39 out of 142 institutions have pucka structures, and this is not a
good sign as institutions are nearly used for shelter, flood response and providing vital
facilities. If these institutions are made of kutcha structures and collapsed during flood,
overall flood management becomes jeopardized.
2.3.3 Economical Vulnerability
People of Gowainghat upazilla are highly dependent on agriculture and related industry.
As we can see in the table on the following page, 56.48% of total population and 56.98%of rural population is directly related to agriculture. On the other hand 3.6% of total
population and 3.55% of rural population are involved in wage/ salary, rent, remittance
and other types of profession, which may not
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Locality Total Agri/Forestry/Livestock
Fishing/Pisciculture
Agri-Labor
Non-Agrilabor
Weaver Industryworker
Businessshop
Hawker Transport/Commu.
Construction Religiousservice
Salary/Wage
Rent Remittacne Others
All area 33635 11278 983 7720 4857 33 151 3157 65 227 165 142 793 12 403 3649100 33.53 2.92 22.95 14.44 0.10 0.45 9.39 0.19 0.67 0.49 0.42 2.36 0.04 1.20 10.85
Urban 794 179 55 109 83 0 0 147 2 0 5 3 117 1 1 92100 22.54 6.93 13.73 10.45 0 0 18.51 0.25 0 0.63 0.38 14.74 0.13 0.13 11.59
Rural 32841 11099 928 7611 4774 33 151 3010 63 227 160 139 676 11 402 3557100 33.80 2.83 23.18 14.54 0.10 0.46 9.17 0.19 0.69 0.49 0.42 2.06 0.03 1.22 10.83100 36.51 2.82 23.51 12.57 0.09 0.40 9.38 0.16 0.63 0.46 0.40 2.10 0.03 1.42 9.53
Basti 906 301 26 169 213 2 8 80 0 0 3 2 7 0 3 92100 36.41 3.24 19.15 19.86 0.21 0.87 9 0 0 0.29 0.14 0.85 0 0.23 9.74
Table#05: Dwelling households and percentage of population by main source of income
Source: Population Census- 2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet
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be affected by flood. This statistics signifies the fact that profession of more than 96%
population of this upazilla are influenced by flood. So flood can affect the economy of
this upazilla significantly.
As observed in the field and digital map collected through web-based GIS software, most
areas of this upazilla is covered either by haors and by beels. Only a part of the north-eastern region is covered by tea garden. It means that whole land area of the upazilla is
exposed to flood hazar except its north- eastern part.
2.3.4 Population related Vulnerability
Population is the most vulnerable component to disasters like flood. It is the people who
often pay much in all the cases because all the other components like infrastructure,
economy and geography and direct as well as indirect relation with people.
In case of Gowainghat as shown in the following table, only 4951 out of 207170 (2.38% )
people live in pucka households. Most of the non-pucka households are made of
temporary nature of materials. These households are also situated amidst low a lying land,which stays under water during flood. Flood water with high velocity hits these
households from all the four sides creating much damage. These people are poor and
literary hand to mouth often losing their living before, during and after flood. Their
properties, valuables, livestock etc are often lost during the phenomena. Furthermore,
they suffer from communicable diseases during and after floods. People in urban areas are
less exposed in comparison to those in rural areas.
Locality and typesof structures All structures Jhupri Kutcha Semi-Pucka Pucka
ALL AREA 207170 16410 164051 21758 4951
Dwelling 33635 2904 26954 3141 636
Institution 975 95 438 167 275
Urban 4568 145 3251 808 364
Rural 202602 16265 160800 20950 4587
Table#06: Household- structure wise population in Gowainghat upazilla3
3 Population Census- 2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet
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Sl
#
Upazila Population Total
0-11 month 12-23 month 2-4 year 5-14 year 15-49 year 50+ year
Male Femal
e
Male Femal
e
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Total
1 Gowainghat 4,476 4,221 5,481 5,409 13,442 13,692 29,945 28,978 53,562 51,076 8,998 9,000 115,904 112,376 228,280
Table#07: Agewise and gender wise population of Gowainghat upazilla
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2.4 Risk Map
There are many established techniques to analyse vulnerability of any area. In case of assessing flood risk for Gowainghat upazilla, a map of the upazilla has been prepared
using web based GIS software, Google Map, and the same map has been used for analysis
of physical risk to flood.
As we can see picture#09, Gowainghat upazilla is composed of approximately ten beels,
haors, agricultural land and four tea gardens on the high lands. It has Himalayan
Mountains of Meghalaya province of India at its north. Hilly upazilla of Sylhet district,
Jaintiapur, covers the north-eastern, eastern and part of southern part of the upazilla. Its
south is covered by high parts of Sylhet sadar upazilla. Flood prone another upazilla of
Sylhet district, Companiganj, is situated at the west and north-western part of the upazilla.
Due to having lands with high elevation around all the four parts of the upazilla, flood
water approaches to the mass of this upazilla from three directions- north, west and east.
Also due to higher elevation, it is not easy for flood water to be drained. And this creates
stagnation of water in this upazilla round the year. And for the same reason it is one of the
most flood prone upazillas of the country. The map on the previous page is showing the
flood status of 2007, and supported the fact, with red color, that water of this upazilla
becomes stagnant due to high elevation around it.
According to the map on the following page, houses in this upazilla are constructed either
on the banks of rivers or in a thin row within vast body of water. Most of this houses, as
shown in figure#12 are of temporary type and made of tin/ bamboo on earthen base. Since
water enters this area from nearby high hills and mountains, it has high velocity, which is
extremely dangerous for household and transportation on water bodies. This invreases
damage and interrupts response work during the floods.
As shown on the map on figure#19 there is ten strategic location which influences overall
flood level of the upazilla. If water levels in these locations are high it creates a huge
flood in the upazilla. On the otherhand, if water flow in these locations can be controlled,
flood in this upazilla can be controlled.
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Risk Map of Gowainghat upazilla (Description has been given on the
previous page)
Areas of Jaintiapur, Kanaigt and Sylhet Sadar
Upazilla have higher elevation, therefore rain
water of Indian north-eastern Meghalay-hills
enters Goainghat through this area
Areas within this box illustrates the fact that roads,
vital facilities and residences are situated in small
and narrow peices of land, where water with high
Existence of high
hills and land with
higher elevation in
north, east, west
and also part of
south part of the
upazilla creates
obstacles in the
drainage of flood
water causing
stagnation for
Since this area has comparatively lower
elevation than neighbouring Companygong,
flood water from Sunamganj area and other
basin enters to this upazilla
High hills of Meghalaya drains huge
amount of water caused by heavy rainfall
towards the flood plain
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Chapter# 3.0 Present practices of flood preparedness in the study area
Flood preparedness is composed of five basic steps, which are as follows-
1. Forecasting
2. Warning
3. Evacuation
4. Flood fighing, and
5. Food stockpiling and medical supplies
Present activities in each stage has been briefed as follows-
3.1 Preparedness related to forecasting:
In Bangladesh, Bangladesh Water Development Board and Department of Meteorology
are primarily responsible for flood forecasting. Some other departments like those
working on water modelling and geographic information system provides valuable
support to them.
Chart#03: Flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh
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As illustrated in diagram present on the previous page, Bangladesh Water Development
Board collects data on the water level of different rivers at different strategic locations of
the country. These locations has been shown in the figure #19 Beside collecting these
data, they also collect data on water in-flow from neighbouring countries. They interpret
these data using different types of computer software and analysis techniques. Once
realized the possibility of flood, they communicate these messages to concerned
authorities for dissemination of warning signals.
On the other hand, Bangladesh Department of Meteorology and other departments with
similar functions collect data on rainfall in the country as well as neighbouring countries.
Besides collecting data at their own, they collected relevant data from neighbouring
countries and countries in Asia Pacific region. They use satellite images and other tools to
accurately predict Flood. If they assume possibility of flood, they communicate the
message to the concerned authority for warning. In most cases they give these messages
to Bangladesh Disaster Management Bureau, electronic and new media as well as to the
office of the Prime Minister.
In case of sub-national level activities, forecasting related activities are generally done at
the districts. District level offices of Bangladesh Water Development Board, Bangladesh
Disaster Management Bureau, District Administration, Pourashava/ City Corporation
administration and media are generally the primary recipient of these messages, anddisseminate warning messages to the mass population in a coordinated way.
At the forecasting phase there is no special mechasin for Gowainghat upazilla. Everything
is being done at the national and district level. In case of this upazilla, there are ten
strategic river points in Gowainghat, Chattak and Jaintapur upazilla that are very crucial
to assess the possibility and extent of flooding in this upazilla. These strategic points are
shown in the figure#19.
According to present practices, it takes approximately few hours to convey forecasted
messages to the concerned authority, and around 24 hours to send it to the upazilla level.
If the upazilla/ district wants to collect/ forecast themselves it takes around three to four
days to collected information related to water level and other related information due to
use of backdated technology.
3.2 Preparedness related to warning:
Media plays a vital role is dissemination of warning messages in Bangladesh, be it
national, sub-national and grass-root level. Beside these mobile phone, land telephone,
fax, VHF, HF, internet etc are used for the purpose.
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District level organizatons like office of the Deputy Commissioner, Department of health,
Departments related to utility services like electricity, sanitatation etc are informed by
national level and district level offices of meteorological department, and disseminate
warning messages to upazilla and below level through different channels. Mass media
like Bangadesh Betar, Bangladesh Television and newspapers also play a very important
role in this regard.
Gowainghat upazilla is composed of eight unions and each union is divided into nine
administrative wards. Upazilla Nirbahi Officer (UNO) receives warning messages from
the district level and communicated to different department at the upazilla level. S/he
passes the warning messages to union level through mobile phone, land telephone, VHF
radio set and/ or through messenger.
After receiving information from the upazilla level, union chairmen passes these warning
messages to the ward members, union disaster management committee members and
volunteers for miking and door to door message dissemination. They also take
preparatory measure to evacuate people to flood shelter and for flood fighting.
3.3 Preparation for evacuation:
Presently there is no systematic mechanism for emergency evacuation. There are
volunteers at the union and subsequently at ward level with inadequate training and
logistic. Affected people are generally responsible for their own evacuation. No plan or
arrangement for evacuation of physically and psychologically challenged people, children
and livestock. Everything is being done extemporarily.
As per the Standing Order for Disaster (SOD), every union, upazila and district should
have disaster management plan, and act according during disaster. In most cases this is
not materialized due to lack of skilled human resource and institutional inability. At union
level, there are volunteers who are specifically designated work for evacuation.
There is no specialized flood shelter or cyclone shelter or any type of shelter, which can
be used as shelter of evacuee. Primary and high schools, colleges, union parisad buildings
(there are eight in Gowainghat upazilla) and high lands are used as flood shelter during
floods.
20 institutions are marked as flood shelters to accommodate 207170 people from 274
villages. Four big flood shelters can accommodate on average 1500 people, whereas all
other shelters can accommodate approximately 200 people. So, all the flood shelters of
this upazilla can accommodate approximately 9200 people during flood.
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Some evacuation related activities are as follows, which are generally undertaken
immediately before floods-
• Give short briefing to the volunteers
• Make coordination with agencies who generally work for evacuation
• Liaison with water vessels owners’ association and truck-bus owners’
association for their support during evacuation.
• Coordination with Gram Police and law enforcing agencies for the
security of people and their properties during and after evacuation.
• Coordination with heads of the educational institutions and public
representatives so that they can allow people to use their premise as flood
shelters.
• Appeal to rich people in the society so that they can provide support in
feeding the evacuated people.
• Coordination with the health department for supply of ORS and other
necessary supplies so that they can be provided to the affected people.
3.4 Preparation for flood fighting:Office of the Upazilla Nirbahi Officer and upazilla level office of the Department of
Public health and Engineering play an imporatant role for flood fighting. Upazilla level
stores of public health department generally stores sufficient quantity of pipes for raising
tubewells, slabs and rings for raising the bases of sanitary latrines and bleaching powders
for disinfection of tubewells and sanitation facilities.
Water Development Board and Department of Roads (WDB), Power Development Board
(PDB) and Department of Road and Highways do not have any representive at the
upazilla level, officials from district comes and works with the facilitation of Upazilla
Nirbahi Officer. Project Implementaion Officer (PIO) coordinates with all the agencies
and union level under the guidance of District Relief and Rehabilitation Officer (DRRO)
and Upazilla Nirbari Officer (UNO). Representatives of PWD, WDB, PDB etc works to
safe guard roads, facilities related to electricity supplies etc.
Agriculture department has representative at the upazilla nd union level plays a crucial
role in guiding farmers and general people in taking protective measure to save their
crops, livestocks and households.
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Beside all these, public representives like union parisad chairmen, members, choukidars
and volunteers of Bangladesh red crescent go door to door to guide mass people on
different protective measures.
On top of all, people take measures to fight flood as per their own understanding andexperience.
Picture#10: Flood in 2004. Lengura union, Gowainghat
3.5 Preparation related to food stock piling and medical supplies:
Department of food is primarily responsible for storing of food for flood. In this
connection, they maintain one big warehouse at the district level, which is situated in
Sylhet. They also have some other warehouses in strategic locations of the district.
Fortunately one of the warehouse for storing of food in situated in Nandirgaon union of
the upazilla though its size is inadequate in comparison the population size of the
upazilla.
Gowainghat Health Complex, the only hospital in the upazilla, has provision of storing
medicine and related medical supplies for flood though the principal warehouse is called
DRS, which is situauted at the district headquarter in Sylhet. This health complex stores
ORS, vaccines, water purification tablets, medicines of skin diseses and different types of
water borne diseases.
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Chapter# 4 Limitations and Challenges of present practices in flood:
This report has already discussed different stages of flood preparedness and related
activities. This section will focus the limitations and challenges of present practices in
flood preparedness, which is mostly human induced and less dependent on technology
like GIS. A popular analysis method named Critical Path Method (CPM) has been used to
assess the challenges.
Information related to this chapter has been collected through discussion with the affected
people of Gowainghat, NGO workers and government officials who are working in the
same area.
4.1 Limitations of present practices at different stages of flood preparedness
Present practices of flood preparedness have many limitations. Some of those are as
follows-
4.1.1 Forecasting:
• Due to the human dimension in our forecasting mechanism, and less
use of cutting age technological equipment, our forecasting is time
consuming and less reliable.
• Due to lack of relevant technology and coordination with
neighbouring countries, we are not getting messages within due time.
• Lack of experts for analysis and interpretation of forecasting signals
and messages.
• Lack of coordinaton between departments responsible for forecasting
and dissemination of warning messages.
4.1.2 Warning:
• Delay in receiving forecast
• Delay in disseminating warning messages
• Lack of proper technology in dissemination of warning messages.
• People often fails to understand the warning messages, and decididetheir course of action.
• Flow for dissemination of warning messages is not same at all level,
and reduces lead time for prepation for the flood.
4.1.3 Evacuation:
• There is no specific plan or mechanism for evacuation during flood.
• Efforts made during the flood are generally inadequate in comparison
the population.
• No arrangement or actin for livestocks.
•
No mechanism to safeguard left properties of the evacuees.
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• Importance of evacuation related preparation is often ignored in flood
preparedness as well as disaster management related planning.
4.1.4 Flood fighting:
• Lack of coordination between different agencies.
• Most of the flood fighting related activities is done by governmentdepartments like health, public health, LGED, road and highways etc
department. Negligible amount of effort are being given to saveguard
people and their properties including crops and livestocks.
• Very poor volunter management. Some volunteers has left long time
before. No body knows about this. No replacement. No training and
logistics.
4.1.5 Food stockpiling and medical supplies:
• Location of the warehouse in Nandirgaon is not strategic. It is located
at one corner of the upazilla. Affected areas are far from it, which may
create problem in transportation of food during the time of need.
• The warehouse is not situated in high land as a result there is a
possibility that the warehouse may go under water duing flood.
• As floods come generally after long interval, medicines and drugs
purchased after or during one disaster expires before another disaster.
People responsibile for maintenance of these stocks seldom checks the
expiry dates.
4.2 Challenges at different stages of flood
Challenges of present practices can be analyzed using a simple flow chart visualizing
critical success factors in each stages of flood preparedness as illustrated through a flow
chart on the following page, each stage has some challenges, and success of that stage
depends on how the challenges are overcome.
The analytical flow chart on the following page has shown all the challenges through a
separate dimension titling critical path. Despite having many challenges no point has been
shown against the forecasting stage since preparedness begins with forecasting, and all
the challenges of later stages are based on the initiative taken at this stage.
Disseminating warning messages to mass population and critical people in a way so that
they can realize the situation, and know exactly what to do- the challenge is at the
warning stage. Due to bureaucracy, lack of accountability and inability of understanding
the severity of the hazard, warning messages are not, generally, disseminated on time.
This is partly due to use of backward technology. On the other hand it is also important to
ensure that managers of vital facilities like those of road and highways, health, electricity,
water, public health etc. departments, and those who are maintaining large installations
involving a huge number of employees gets the warning message at the early stage so that
they can get sufficient time to take action.
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Evacuation is one of the most challenging part of flood preparedness. There should be a
specific plan for evacuation with projected estimate of the areas to be affected with
number of population in the coverage area. Accordingly shelter should be prepared with
provision for livestock. Security of leftout households should also be considered. Total
number of evacuee should be matching with the total capacity of available flood shelters.
Success of this stage largely depends on getting forecast on time, and quick estimation of coverage area and population.
Chart#04: Analysis of challenges of present practices using Critical Path Method (CPM)4
Flood fighting is one of the most crucial stages in flood preparedness. Success of this
stage depends largely on the correct interpretation of the warning message, and also
getting it with sufficient time in hand. Understanding of responsibility is also very crucial.
This steps often suffers from the dielemma of who is to do what? Considering that it mind
steps should be taken to avoid role conflict during preparation in non-flood time. Service
4 Solve That Problem. Edited by Steve Smith. Published by KOGAN PAGE
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providers should have clear understanding about their role at this stage, and same way
mass communication activities should be undertaken to make people realize their role
during this time. Mass population do not have the idea on measure to do to fight flood.
Different types of measures should be taken to educate people on this issue much ahead
of the flood season so that time is not wasted during or at the beginning of the flood
trying to teach them on this issue.
Flood stock piling and medical services is a very important step in terms of saving lives.
Departments like food, public health and engineering, health etc should have sufficient
preparation to provide food and other related support to the population in and outside the
flood shelter. Like preparatory activities for evacuation, correct estimate of affected or to
be affected area should be prepared, and logistics and supplies should be procured and
stored accordingly. It is often seen that stock procured once is not checked later on for
expiry as a result these cannot be used during the time, when they are expected to be
used.
4.3 Assessment of need for improvement in present practices:
Analysis in this section has been done in three perspective- possibility of failure, what to
do to reach an ideal situation? and feasibility of using technology.
4.3.1 Analysis from the perspective of failure:
As mentioned earlier in this section, the purpose of this analysis is to identify gaps
of present system, if these are any, and search for possible causes of those gaps.
Again it looked for the root causes. Final outcomes of this analysis are
recommendations to overcome present limitations based on the field observations,
interviews, newspaper cuttings and own experience of the reporter in the study
area.
If we look the table#08, we will find that “Evacuation” is the weakest stage of
flood preparedness having an RPN rating of 384. Second weakest area is
“Warning” with a RPN rating of 250. Present practices of flood preparedness are
so far better in flood preparedness. Possibility of system failure is high in
“warning” and “Food stock piling and medical services” stage. Severity of failure
is high in Forecasting and evacuation stages.
As far as recommendation is concerned, use of GIS and mass communication are
the best remedies so far.
4.3.2 Analysis from the perspective of ideal situation
What needs to be done to achieve an ideal situation in flood preparedness is the
central idea of this analysis. As per the chart#05, effective flood preparedness
should have three broad objectives namely reducing the damage to the economy,
reducing damage to the infrastructure and reducing loss of lives, livestock and
properties.
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In case of reducing damages to the economy, protection agriculture and keeping
economic activities operational are two key specific objectives. Use of GIS and
computerized database can contribute a lot in fulfilling these objectives.
On the other hand, early warning for flood fighting, relocation of economic
institutions, finding ways to redirect and drain flood water are crucial for reducing
damage to the infrastructure. And GIS can be an answer to all these.
Reduction of losses to lives, livestock and properties is dependent on factors like
early warning for flood fighting, mass communication for mass awareness, mass
education on mass flood preparedness, effective evacuation system, effective
management of food and medical supplied before, during and after flood. Mass
communication, computerized database and GIS can be contributory in these
cases.
4.3.3 Analysis to assess the feasibility of using technology
Purpose of this analysis is to identify best mix of people and technology through
illustration of four different situations combining people and technology. If we
analyse chart#06, we will find four scenarios. In the best possible scenario is the
use of technology where most of the activities are fully automated or not
dependent on human interactions. On the other hand, the worst possible scenario
is the one, which completely manual depending highly on human interactions.
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Item Failure mode Local effects System effects Potential causes Current
controls
Recommended action
1 Foreca sting Dela y in realization of hazard
Not enough data.Delay inreceivinginformation
Backdated technology. Lack of coordination within departmentsand neighbouring countries
Partial. Not soeffective.
-Use of GIS through satellite-Better digital coordination between departments andneighbouring countries and world organizations
2 Warning Delay in messagetransmission
Delay in everysteps of message
transmission
Backdated technology.Bureaucracy. Human dependent
transmission system. Somecritical departments are out of loop.
Low.Human
dependent. Timeconsuming
-Use of automated messaging system, which can beoperational based on satellite data
3 Evacuation Very few people getsupport duringevacuation. Mostly theyevacuate themselves
Lack of planning,estimation,coordination,logistics andtraining
Lack of right information at theright time. Not enough time toestimate due to lack of information about areas and
population to be affected.
Very low.Disorganized. Lack of coordination.
GIS based software can calculate potential vulnerableareas and make estimate on affected people withlogistic requirement, and accordingly send SMS or email to concerned officials or persons.
4 Flood figh ting Enough a ct ions are no t being taken to savelives and properties
Not realizingwhat to do
People are not aware about themeasures of flood fighting.Moreover, they suffer from roleconflict.
Very low. Mass communication activities can be undertaken toaware people on this. Public representative can also
play a vital role.
5 Food stock piling andmedicalservices
People often suffer dueto shortage of food andmedical supplies andtreatment
Lack of supplies.Inconvenientlocation of thewarehouse.
Lack of plan and initiatives of itsimplementation. Also lack of detailed information aboutvulnerable area, their population.Lack of estimate, and purchaseaccordingly.
Very low GIS data can automatically generate estimate on thelogistic requirement for vulnerable people based ondata collected through sensors in the river, and satellitedata.
Table#08 : Analysis from the perspective of failure
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Chart#5: Analysis from the perspective of an ideal situation
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Human induced forecasting systemHuman induced warning, and its transmission
Manual assessment of potential damage and estimation
Fully automated warning systemSensor based assessment of water levels in rivers
Software simulated forecastingGIS data based assessmentGIS data based estimateSMS based guidance on flood fightingSynchronization of GIS server with those in other countri
Partially computerized forecasting system.Partially automated transmission of warning messages.
Partially automated assessment of damagePartially automated management of food stock and mediPartially automated estimation.
Human induced forecasting, and manual transmission of Too much dependence on face to face message dissemin
Chart#6:Analysis of the feasibility of using technology in flood preparedness
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Chapter# 5: Proposals for improvement and Conclusion:
5.1 Proposals for improvement of flood preparedness:
Since flood affects everybody regardless their identity, flood preparedness is the responsibility of
everybody. Different types of people have different role to play. Mass population has the major
role to play by being more aware on the issue and doing their part. On the other hand
administrative and cultural communities as well as the state have certain roles and
responsibilities, which no one else can play. Proposals of this report did not aim to distinguish
their roles, it has rather tried to identify activities to be done. Some of those are-
5.1.1 Activities for reduction of homestead related vulnerabilities:
• Advance plan for prevention of flood related risks
• Selection and training of appropriate volunteers at the community level• Formation and training of community search and rescue team
• Establishment of village level information and warning system
• Organize mass education campaign for awareness on flood related issues
• Ensure immunization and vitamin –A coverage in flood prone area
• Make raised platforms in houses
• Avoid mud-walls while building houses
• Surround the houses and homestead with strongly rooted trees and plants
to prevent/ reduce effect of flood
• Ensure stock of ORS, bleaching powder, water purification tablets, alum,
vitamin A capsules and other essential medicine for simple treatment atcommunity level or village.
• Stock dry food
• Protect drinking water sources
• Train women and family members on the treatment of contaminated water
5.1.2 Activities for reduction of agriculture related vulnerabilities:
• Protect embankments
• Keep water drainage system better
• Keep seeds in a safe place
• Plant seedlings in highest possible grounds
• Acquire storage container for keeping seeds
• Acquire late verities of rice
• Store enough rice for two replanting of rice
• Have equipment to remove engines and pumps, and take to a safe place
• Leave rice un-husked in paddy form
• Planting of flood resistant/ deep water crops.
• Stockpiling of fertilizer to use as soon as the flood goes down.
• Consider use of different possible cropping patters which will avoid crop
damage at floods.
• Keep seeds in water tight container
• Save engine and water pump by removing it to a safe place and cover the
well casing to stop entering of silt
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• Prepare soil, collect polythene bags for seedlings, prepare floating or
hanging seed beds
5.1.3 Activities for reduction of livestock related vulnerabilities:
• Make certain that high ground is found or is built of raised earth where the
animals can be taken in floods• Learn how to recognize and treat diseases which cattles’ may get during
flood. Store related medicine.
• Convince the veterinary specialist in the area to make special arrangements to
visit animals during the flood.
• Sale, if possible, animals before the flood season to get better price and
minimize losses.
• Encourage villagers to produce and stock pile sufficient animal fodder
• Train village volunteers in poultry and livestock vaccination and vaccinate
every animal regularly.
•
Ensure materials for vaccination• Make portable cages for poultry
• Encourage duck rearing
• If deep flood apprehended, attempt to move animals to higher ground as soon
as possible
• Build temporary flood shelter for animals
• Assemble a stock of animal foods and grass
• Assemble medicine for animals
• Arrange floating fodder
5.1.4 Activities to reduce vulnerabilities of homesteads:
• Move to high ground
• Take special precaution to assist children, women and elderly
persons. Prevent children from swimming.
• Ensure safe drinking water for all the members of the family
• Turn electric switches off
• Keep carbolic acid to avoid snake biting
• Raise tube-wells and opening of ring-wells
• Use water purification tablets or boil water before drinking
• Arrange early detection , prevention and treatment of water related
diseases
• Keep sufficient stock of ORS• Immediate take children/ babies to nearby health service providing
outlets in case of their breathing problem
• Assist sick and injured people
• Maintain education campaign on breast feeding, sanitation and
personal hygiene- especially hand washing
• Ensure sanitation facilities like latrines
• Ensure food for pregnant, lactating mothers and under five
children
• Cut banana trees and bamboos and use them as rafts for
emergency evacuation
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5.1.5 Activities to reduce vulnerabilities of agriculture:
• Survey the level of the water as frequently as possible
• Carry seeds to relatively higher ground
• Leave a family member to guard properties, house, fields etcwithout exposing themselves to any threat
• Raise seedlings of rice in small pots at high densities, and raise
vegetable seedlings in floating seed beds or polythene bags
• Arrange agricultural credit with the local banks/ NGOs to replant
crops.
5.1.6 Activities to reduce vulnerabilities of livestock:
• Ensure safe water and safe place for grazing
• Poultry can be evacuated greater distance if floodwaters continues
to raise
• Check the animals for water borne diseases
• Isolate the animals with contagious diseases from other animals
• Contact the livestock department
• Feed stock on floating vegetation.
• Keep animals on mounds of water hyacinth and banana steps- wet
but high
5.1.7 Integration of GIS Technology
A GIS based server can operate at the district level, which will be connected to the main
server at the national level. Other end of this server will be connected with sensors in ten
strategic location of Gowainghat upazilla and some part of Jaintiapur, Sylhet Sadar and
Chattak upazilla as shown in figure# 19.
This server will have detailed digital map incorporating data like
– Elevation of each of 72 wards (1 upazilla X 8 union X9 wards)
– Detailed demographic information with statistics on women, children,
elderly and physically challenged people.
– Agricultural data including number of livestock.
– Location of houses, roads, ponds, rivers etc.
Based on the data collected from other countries through the central database at Dhaka,
and water level of the rivers collected from 10 sensors points, GIS software will be able
to analyze which area is going to be affected at what extent. Accordingly the GIS server
will broadcast SMS through mobile to different agencies, line ministries, public
representative the volunteers and others at the upazilla and union level with the
possibilities covering suggested course of action. This server will also be able to generate
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a prescription for flood fighting, evacuation and estimate for stock piling and emergency
medicine.
Though estimation of overall cost for this initiative is beyond scope of this report, it can
be safely said that it will be much cost effective in comparison to the benefit it may
generate reducing losses to the economy, infrastructure, people and their properties.
5.2 Conclusion
GIS is a very popular technology for the management of disaster. It can also be used for flood
preparedness. Different countries of the world including Costa Rica, West Indies, India (on
experiment), Guatemala, Netherlands etc are using it successfully.
Bangladesh is a poor country and densely populated. Even minor a hazard can create a
major disaster anytime. This country do not have the capacity to afford the losses caused by
disasters, floods in most cases, that is why it is more reasonable for the people and policy makers
of the country to invest more on preparedness so that risk can be reduced beforehand.
There are many challenges and limitations in present practices of flood preparedness. If
GIS technology can be used for this purpose, many of the present limitations can be eliminated
resulting reduced damage to the people, their properties, infrastructure and economy as whole.
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Chapter#6: References
1 Ideal locationfor£ood shelter: a geographic information systemapproach J.Sanyal1 and X.X. Lu2 1 Department of Geography, Taki Government College,Taki, West Bengal, India 2 Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore
2 Realtime web-based remote sensing and GIS for flood management jointly done by ministry of planning, Khulna University and Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology.
3 GIS Technology for Disaster and Emergency Management: by Russ Johnson.Published by ESRI
4 Challenges for GIS in Emergency preparedness and Response. Published byESRI.5 Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic West
Bengal, India
6 Low-cost remote sensing and GIS for regional disaster risk reduction, North West
Costa Rica by Naomi Morris
7 GIS as a tool in emergency management process by Leonid V. Stoimenov,
Member, IAENG, Aleksandar Lj. Milosavljević, and Aleksandar S. Stanimirović
8 GIS based natural disaster mapping: A case study by O. Avsar a,*, Z. Duran a, D.
Z. Seker a, M. Hisir a, M. Shrestha b
9 Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic West
Bengal, India, Joy Sanyal and Xi Xi Lu, Department of Geography, National
University of Singapore
10 Tools for Success: A Managers’ Guide by Dr. Sussane Turner
11 Solve That Problem by edited by Steve Smith
12 Population Census- 2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet
13 Population Census- 2001, Community Series, Zilla: Sylhet