FLOOD FORECASTING IN THEREPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING IN

REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Regional Workshop on Hydrological Forecasting and Real Time Data Management

11-13 May 2009, Dubrovnik, CROATIA

Vasko STOJOV (vasko@meteo.gov.mk)

Nikola PETRESKI, Boza KOSTADINOVSKA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE – MACEDONIA

...Since absolute flood protectionis almost impossible,flood forecasting is the only chance to avoid catastrophe. 

Introduction

• LOCATION

Relief-Map

Map of the main catchments

• Aegean See• Adriatic See• Black See

Climatic conditions

- In the higher regions of the country exist mountainous climate with various subtypes;

- In the other parts is changing from continental to variable continental;

- In the river Vardar valley and in the lower parts of some tributaries exist Sub-Mediterranean climate.

Flood Forecasting Activities

• Collection and processing of Hydrometeorological data• Analysing meteorological products;• Receiving Weather Forecast;• Analysing hydrological data;• Water Forecast;• Hydrological Information and Alarming.

Meteorological Data

Needs of new automatic stationsespecially in the mountainous regions

Collection and processing of

Hydrological Data

Needs of new automatic stationsespecially in the mountainous regions

Collection and processing of

Analysing meteorological products

• Satellite Maps-EUMETSAT;• Internet Maps-Wetterzentrale;-Meteo Blue;

• NMM Maps;-temperature;-air pressure;-precipitation;-wind direction;-cloud cover• Forecast Meteograms.

Receiving weather forecast and alarming

Hydrological Analysing

• Hydrological Data;

Flood forecasting of the upper catchment of the r.Vardar

Hydrological StationInfo Hydrological Station

Rain Gauge Station

Graph-analytical method forFlood Forecasting

Rain

No.River and

Hydrological Station

Gostivar Tetovo Jazinci Kicevo M.Brod Zdunje Skopje

70 40 70.5 43.5 3.8 10 39 x

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 mm

0.45 0.41 0.14 - - - -

32 16 10 - - - - 58

- - - 0.43 0.36 0.21 -

- - - 19 1 2 - 22

- - 1 - - - -

- - 70.5 - - - - 70.5

0.14 0.14 0.225 0.15 0.12 0.145 0.08

10 6 16 7 0 1 3 43

ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE RAIN VALUE FOR CATCHMENT OF THE R.VARDAR AT SKOPJE

Rain Gauge Stations

1Vardar Radusa

4 Vardar Skopje

2Treska Zdunje

3Lepenec

Lepenec Vliv

• Estimation of average precipitation for relevant catchments;

Graph-analytical method

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

006.05.05 00:00 07.05.05 00:00 08.05.05 00:00 09.05.05 00:00

43

6080

20

Q (m3/s)

Qo (m3/s)

H (cm)

120 100 80 60 40 20

T (days)

40

Graph-analytical method

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

006.05.05 00:00 07.05.05 00:00 08.05.05 00:00 09.05.05 00:00

43

6080

20

Q (m3/s)

Qo (m3/s)

H (cm)

120 100 80 60 40 20

T (days)

40

Hydrological Information and Alarming

• Centre for Crisis;• Centre for informing and alarming;• Relevant Ministries;• Public and Media

What is reality

• With our NMM model, weather forecast is on very high level;

• METEO ALARM give public information about bad weather situations; but

• for better water forecast we need modernization of our hydrological network, raingauge system and update of our hydrological forecast model.

Flash Floods is our reality

Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)

Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)

Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)

Salvador Dali

“Have no fear of perfection–you’ll never reach it”

“We know we are not perfect, but also we are not fear to keep on trying”

Vasko Stojov

Thank you for your attention