Floating Production Systems Presentation at Tulane Energy Week 2010 Jim McCaul – IMA.
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Transcript of Floating Production Systems Presentation at Tulane Energy Week 2010 Jim McCaul – IMA.
Floating Production SystemsPresentation at
Tulane Energy Week 2010
Jim McCaul – IMA
Outline of Presentation
Overview of FPS Technology
Current FPS Situation
FPS Projects Being Planned
Forecast of FPS Orders
International Maritime Associates - 2 - www.imastudies.com
Four Basic FPS Solutions
FPSO
Production Semi
Tension Leg Platform
Production Spar
International Maritime Associates - 3 - www.imastudies.com
FPSO
International Maritime Associates - 4 - www.imastudies.com
Serpentina FPSO
Weathervaning Spread Moored
Pazflor FPSO
FPSO
International Maritime Associates - 5 - www.imastudies.com
PRO
Has field storage and can be used in remote locations. Can operate on shallow or ultra-deepwater fields. Less weight sensitive than other types of FPSs.
Leasing transfers some risk from field operator to contractor.
Assumed residual value a competitive tool in leasing bids.
Deck area allows flexibility in process plant layout. Surplus/aging tankers can be used for conversion. Can be modified/redeployed following field depletion.Quick disconnect turrets enable emergency relocation.
CON
Subsea tiebacks create higher well maintenance costs.
Turret/swivel machinery expensive, high maintenance.
Redeploying an FPSO not as easy as it may appear.
Production Semi
International Maritime Associates - 6 - www.imastudies.com
PRORelatively wide deck space provides good layout footprint for process plant.Can support large number of risers. Has relatively little surface motion.Water depth not a limitation.
CONNo storage – requires either an FSO or pipeline offtake. Hull weight carrying capacity imposes limitations on deckload. Deck space more limited than large FPSO. Dry tree designs developed, but to date wet trees utilized with production semis.
P-51 Production Semi
Tension Leg Platform
International Maritime Associates - 7 - www.imastudies.com
PROSurface motion limited by tendon tension, providing stable platform for dry trees.
CONTendon weight grows with water depth and increasingly restricts deck payload capacity.
Deepest TLP water depth to date has been Magnolia, in 1430 meters water.
TLPs are inherently unstable and will capsize if tendons fail.
Moses TLP
Sea Star TLP
ETLP
Production Spar
International Maritime Associates - 8 - www.imastudies.com
PRO
Can accommodate dry trees.
Water depth does not seem to be a limitation – Perdido Host spar is in water depth of 2400 meters.
Spars can provide storage but to date no spar has been used in this capacity.
Inherently stable, will remain upright if moorings fail.
CON
Need to utilize heavy lift or floatover for hull/topsides mating – an expensive proposition.Kikeh Spar
Optimum Application Range
International Maritime Associates - 9 - www.imastudies.com
Source: FloaTEC, Review of Deepwater Floating Structures and Dry Tree Semi Developments, November 2006
FPS Units in Operation(as of July 2010)
22 tension leg platforms 43 production semis 152 FPSOs 18 production spars 8 production barges 5 FSRUs 95 FSOs
International Maritime Associates - 10 - www.imastudies.com
Where FPSs are Operating(as of July 2010)
International Maritime Associates - 11 - www.imastudies.com
1
14
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
15
3
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
48
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
2
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
1 1 2
9
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
2
13
22
7
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
15
7 5
17
1 1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
RFPU
FSRUFSO
17
28
3 5
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
1 1
19
1 2
43
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
Not shown in the bar charts are 6 FPSOs, 2 production semis and 2 FSOs that are off-field and available for reuse. Also not included is an FPSO in China that is off-field for repair. 2 FPSOs and an FPU in the GOM are employed in emergency use.
41
35
5
16
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
R
BARGE
FSRUFSO
FPSs Being Built/Converted(as of July 2010)
39 FPSOs (16 new, 23 conversions) 4 production semis (new) 1 TLP (new) 1 FSRU (conversion) 4 FLNGs (new) 3 MOPUs (2 new, 1 conversion) 2 FSOs (1 new, 1 conversion)
International Maritime Associates - 12 - www.imastudies.com
Where FPSs Are Being Built(as of July 2010)
International Maritime Associates - 13 - www.imastudies.com
BrasfelsPapa Terra P61 TLP
Jubarte P57 FPSO (top)Marlim Sul P56 Semi (n-hull)
Atlantico SulRoncador P55 FPSO (hull blocks)
DaewooPazflor FPSO (n)
HyundaiUsan FPSO (n)Goliat FPSO (n)
Notes: (1) n=new, c=conversion, top=topsides plant (2) Not shown are builders or converters where the facility has not been selected or hulls or topsides have essentially been completed.
JRay McDermottPeregrino FPSO (top)
Technip/Keppel Fels BrazilMarlim Sul P56 Semi (top)
SamsungSkarv FPSO (n)
FlexLNG Producer 1 (n)FlexLNG Producer 2 (n)FlexLNG Producer 3 (n)FlexLNG Producer 4 (n)Waimea OSX-1 FPSO (n)
JurongPetroProd 1 FPSO (c)
PSVM FPSO (c)Roncador P62 FPSO (c)
KeppelJubarte P57 FPSO (c-hull)
Peregrino FPSO (c)Cossack FPSO (c)Aseng FPSO (c)
P. Das Baleais P58 FPSO (c)Chim Sao FPSO (c)
Gulf Island Fab.Cheviot Semi (top)
MMHEGumusut semi (n)
LamprellDeep Producer 1 FPSO (top)
Livorno FSRU (top)
Dubai DDDeep Producer 1 FPSO (c-hull)
Livorno FSRU (c)Aquila FPSO (c)
HantongSevan #4 FPSO (n-hull)Sevan #5 FPSO (n-hull)
Cosco NantongCheviot Semi (n)
Rio Grande SulRoncador P55 FPSO
(hull assembly)Serial Pre-salt FPSOs (n-hulls)
Toyo Eng.PSVM FPSO (top)
Cosco DalianTupi Pilot (c-hull)Guara FPSO (c)
Papa Terra P63 FPSO (c-hull)
AdyardYme MOPU (n)
D. Panuke MOPU (n)
KanfaFlexFLNG Producer 1 (top)
QuipRoncador P55 FPSO (top)Papa Terra P63 FPSO (top)
TechnipGumusut semi (top)
SembawangPipa II FPSO (c)Kitan FPSO (c)
Carioca EWT (c)
COOECTupi Pilot (top)
STX DalianSoroosh FSU (n)
YulianEbok FPSO (c)
FPS Construction Has Shifted to Asia(number of facilities involved in FPS construction/conversion)
International Maritime Associates - 14 - www.imastudies.com
11 9 9 10 10 11 9 7 63
7 8 6 6 4 5 5 4 6 5 5 4 3 5 7 69 10 11 11 9 8 7
4 3 2 1 1
6 8 8 8 9 7
5 87
85
7 12 1413 12 11 13
1312
8 10 11
1415 15
16
2122
1920
1514
1716 16 16 16
2 3 4 4 4 4
6 66
5 4
64
7
7 87 5
44
35 7
65 5
4
32
2 2
22 2
3 31 1
1 1 1 1
1
2 2
2
23
3 3 34
4
66
34 4
4
3 3
3 4
54 4 4 5
5 51
11
1
1 1
12
2
2 2 21
1 1
1
3 34 3
4
3 3 3 3
3 3
Europe Asia No. America Brazil Africa Middle East
Where FPSs Will Be Installed(as of July 2010)
International Maritime Associates - 15 - www.imastudies.com
1
2
14
1
Not shown are 4 FPSOs and 4 FLNGs being built on speculation without a field contract.
1 3
51 1
1 1
1 2
20
1
Trend in FPS Order Backlog
International Maritime Associates - 16 - www.imastudies.com
31
373632
353330
232117
212227
3737383941383737
34343534
434646
5760
676560
56
49
41403739
49
Sep '9
6
Feb '9
7
Jun '9
7
Oct '97
Mar
'98
Jul '
98
Nov '9
8
Mar
'99
Aug '99
Dec '9
9
Apr '00
Sep '0
0
Feb '0
1
Jul '
01
Nov '0
1
Apr '02
Aug '02
Feb '0
3
Jun '0
3
Oct '03
Mar
'04
Jul '
04
Nov '0
4
Apr '05
Jul '
05
Nov '0
5
Mar
'06
Jul '
06
Nov '0
6
Mar
'07
Jul '
07
Nov '0
7
Mar
'08
Jul '
08
Dec '0
8
Mar
'09
Jul '
09
Nov '0
9
Mar
'10
Jul '
10
8 Petrobras FPSO hulls}
FPS Projects Planned/Under Study(as of July 2010)
International Maritime Associates - 17 - www.imastudies.com
13 12
21
5
1712 10
3 1 3
613
2
6
4
1
1
1911
3
14
1
Shown in this chart is the number of projects by region where floating production or storage is under consideration as a development solution. Several projects involve multiple production units. One project in Brazil potentially involves 6 or more units. Data reflect the situation as of 19 July 2010.
<1000m water depth
Deepwater 1000-1500m
Ultra-Deepwater >1500m
Forecast of FPSO OrdersOver the Next Five Years
International Maritime Associates - 18 - www.imastudies.com
- - - - - Next Five Years - - - - -
5572
92
117
8
8
8
9
15
20
25
Scenario 1$50-$70 oil95 FPSOs
Scenario 2~$80 oil
120 FPSOs
Scenario 3$90-$100 oil150 FPSOs
Past Five Years
ActualOrders
64 FPSOs
Redeployments
New Orders
Available Spec Units
Forecast of Production Semi OrdersOver the Next Five Years
International Maritime Associates - 19 - www.imastudies.com
- - - - - Next Five Years - - - - -
8 8 9 10
11
1
11
2
3Scenario 1$50-70 oil10 Semis
Scenario 2~$80 oil12 Semis
Scenario 3$90-100 oil14 Semis
Past Five Years
ActualOrders9 Semis Redeployments
New Orders
Available Spec Unit
Forecast of TLP OrdersOver the Next Five Years
International Maritime Associates - 20 - www.imastudies.com
1 1
2 2
1
2
2
3
Scenario 1$50-70 oil
3 TLPs
Scenario 2~$80 oil4 TLPs
Scenario 3$90-100 oil
5 TLPs
Past Five Years
- - - - - Next Five Years - - - - -
ActualOrders2 TLPs Production
TLPs
Wellhead TLPs
Forecast of Production Spar OrdersOver the Next Five Years
International Maritime Associates - 21 - www.imastudies.com
1
2 2 2
1
1
2
3
Scenario 1$50-70 oil
3 Spars
Scenario 2~$80 oil4 Spars
Scenario 3$90-100 oil
5 Spars
Past Five Years
- - - - - Next Five Years - - - - -
ActualOrders2 Spars
Heavy/MediumDeckload
LightDeckload
Forecast of FSO OrdersOver the Next Five Years
International Maritime Associates - 22 - www.imastudies.com
4 4 5 6
22 2125
29
Scenario 1$50-70 oil25 FSOs
Scenario 2~$80 oil30 FSOs
Scenario 3$90-100 oil
35 FSOs
Past Five Years
- - - - - Next Five Years - - - - -
ActualOrders
26 FSOs
PurposeBuilt Units
Conversions
Summary Forecast of FPS OrdersOver the Next Five Years
International Maritime Associates - 23 - www.imastudies.com
Most LikelyScenario
Scenario 1$50-70 Oil
Scenario 2~$80 Oil
Scenario 3$90-100 Oil
Type FPSO No. UnitsTotalCapex No. Units
TotalCapex No. Units
TotalCapex
(bil of $) (bil of $) (bil of $)
Production Floaters
FPSOs 95 $56.6 120 $67.1 150 $81.8
Semis 10 $5.6 12 $6.1 14 $6.7
TLPs 3 $2.2 4 $3.2 5 $3.8
Spars 3 $1.5 4 $1.8 5 $2.1
All production floaters 111 $65.9 140 $78.2 174 $94.4
Storage Floaters
FSOs 25 $2.6 30 $3.2 35 $3.7
Total Market 136 $68.5 170 $81.4 209 $98.1
International Maritime Associates, Inc.1250 24th Street, NW — Suite 350
Washington, DC 20037 USATel: 202-333-8501 (Washington)
Tel: 832-203-5622 (Houston)Fax: 202-333-8504
Email: [email protected]: www.imastudies.com