FLEXIBLE STOCKING FOR RANCHERSDR. JUSTIN DERNER

Justin.derner@ars.usda.gov

USDA-ARSRangeland Resources and

Systems Research UnitCheyenne, WY/Fort Collins,

CO

TOOL FOR DROUGHT FLEXIBILITY

HAILEY WILMER, JUSTIN DERNER, DAVID AUGUSTINE

1. The problem: matching forage supply with demand2. One strategy: What and how of flexible stocking3. Economic analysis4. More climate tools for ranchers

FLEXIBILITY: TOOLS AND STRATEGIES

ROAD MAP

RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE

THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Central Plains Experimental Range, CO

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Annu

al P

reci

pita

tion

(inch

es)

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

Mean: 13.40Max: 22.88 (1967)Min: 4.31 (1964)

80

63

47

42

27

24

15

Reduce herd size

Purchase feed

Wean early

Rent pasture

Move livestock location

Sell retained yearlings

Place livestock in feedlot

Drought ResponsePercent of ranchers (WY)

Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.

RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE

THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

48

47

28

22

16

Conservative Stocking

Rest Pasture

Incorporte Yearlings

Grassbank

Use weather predictions to adjust stocking rate

Drought PreparationPercent of ranchers (WY)

Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.

RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE

THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE

TAKE HOME MESSAGE: RANCHERS NEED PROACTIVE STRATEGIES

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT

Can drought be an opportunity as well as

a challenge?

1. Anticipate it with conservative stocking rates2. Predict variability using weather and climate forecasting3. Track variability with flexible stocking strategies4. Use spatial variability that already exists in the landscape5. Create spatial variability to enhance benefits of grassbanking

WORKING WITH VARIABILITY

BUILDING FLEXIBILITY TO DROUGHT

Source: Derner and Augustine, 2016. Rangelands, 38(4), 211-215. Open Access online: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2016.05.002

PREDICT VARIABILITY

FORECASTS AND TOOLS

FORECASTS AND TOOLS

PREDICT VARIABILITY

PREDICT IT

US DROUGHT MONITOR

PREDICT VARIABILITY

FORECASTS AND TOOLS

PREDICT IT

US SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK

PREDICT VARIABILITY

FORECASTS AND TOOLS

PREDICT IT

SEASONAL FORECASTS

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE

PREDICT IT

LONGER TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL

INFLUENES

WARM PHASE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) WARM PHASE ATLANTIC

MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION

PREDICT VARIABILITY

FORECASTS AND TOOLS

NOAA INFO ON PDO

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

PREDICT VARIABILITY

FORECASTS AND TOOLS

Chen et al. 2017

PREDICT VARIABILITY

GRASSCAST COMING SOON

PREDICT IT

GRASSLAND PRODUCTIVITY FORECAST

FOR GREAT PLAINS

Brought to you by:• Justin Derner and Dannele

Peck, USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub

• William (Bill) Parton Colorado State University

• Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center

TRACK VARIABILITY

WITH FLEXIBLE STOCKING

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING

TRACK VARIABILITY

1. INCORPORATE YEARLINGS INTO COW-CALF OPERATIONS

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING

TRACK VARIABILITY

2. RETAIN MORE HEIFER CALVES IN THE FALL

3. DRY COW GRAZING IN LATE SPRING AND SUMMER

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING

TRACK VARIABILITY

FLEXIBLE STOCKING PREDICTED TO DOUBLE ECONOMIC RETURNS

WITH HIGH QUALITY FORECASTSConservative Stocking, Cow-Calf only

Flexible Stocking, Cow Calf plusYearling

Annual net returns $55,126 $115,221

Advantage of flexible, cow-calf plus yearling $60,095 (109%)

Source: Torell et al 2010 Rangeland Ecology and Management 63: 415-425

ALLEN TORELL

TRACK VARIABILITY

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only

“Normal to Wet”

Fall Sell steer calves; Keep heifers for replacements;Sell open cows

Early-spring Consider resting pastures;Breed all replacement heifers

Mid-summer Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets

TRACK VARIABILITY

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only

“Normal to Wet”Cow-calf only

“Dry”

Fall Sell steer calves; Keep heifers for replacements;Sell open cows

Sell steer calves and deeper cut of heifers; Sell open cows and poor performers

Early-spring Consider resting pastures;Breed all replacement heifers

Synchronize breeding and preg test after 21 days to identify non-pregnant females to sell

Mid-summer Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets

Early wean calves to reduce forage demand;Sell more cows from base herd

TRACK VARIABILITY

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only

“Normal to Wet”Cow-calf with yearlings

“Normal to Wet”

Fall Sell steer calves; Keep heifers for replacements;Sell open cows

Sell yearlings;Retain all steer and heifer calves;Sell open cows

Early-spring Consider resting pastures;Breed all replacement heifers

Consider resting pastures or adding additional yearlings or dry cows;Breed all replacement heifers

Mid-summer Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets

Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets

TRACK VARIABILITY

STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only

“Dry”Cow-calf with yearlings

“Dry”

Fall Sell steer calves and deeper cut of heifers; Sell open cows and poor performers

Sell yearlings and bottom cut of all calves; Sell open cows and poor performers

Early-spring Synchronize breeding and preg test after 21 days to identify non-pregnant females to sell

Sell rest of steers calves (no yearlings);Synchronize breeding and preg test after 21 days to identify non-pregnant females to sell

Mid-summer Early wean calves to reduce forage demand;Sell more cows from base herd

Early wean calves to reduce forage demand;Keep more of base cow herd

MOBILITY AND GRASSBANKING

USE AND CREATE VARIABILITY

M. Hess

MOBILITY AND GRASSBANKING

USE AND CREATE VARIABILITY

Adaptive Grazing Management at the Central Plains Experimental Range

2014: 7 of 10 pastures grazed; 3 rested2015: 4 of 10 pastures grazed; 6 rested2016: 7 of 10 pastures grazed; 3 rested2017: 9 of 10 pastures grazed; 1 rested

Rested

Rested

Sept 9 August 8

Rested

May 16

May 30 July 23

June 20July 8

+460 lbs/ac

+90 lbs/ac

+440 lbs/ac

TIPS FOR ADAPTATION

STAY INFORMED AND STAY ON TOP OF DROUGHT

• Check seasonal predictions and climate patterns

• Check seasonal temperature forecast

• Update forage estimate periodically in spring

Tolleson, 2917

•Local Cooperative Extension•Local FSA office•Local NRCS office•Univeristy of Nebraska-Lincoln Drought planning information

http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/Overview.aspx

DROUGHT PLANNING AND COPING

RESOURCES AND INFORMATION

DON’T GET CAUGHT IN A RUT

STAY FLEXIBLE, STAY PROFITABLE

Justin.derner@ars.usda.govphone: (307) 772-2433 x.113

cell: (307) 631-5928

QUESTIONS? JUSTIN DERNER

USDA-ARS RANGELAND SCIENTIST