FKP Property Group Full Year Results Presentation · $375m facility is secured against assets with...
Transcript of FKP Property Group Full Year Results Presentation · $375m facility is secured against assets with...
FKP Property GroupFull Year Results Presentation 27 August 2009
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CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
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Overview
Strong Financial Position
Quality Residential Asset Base
• Operating and capital initiatives have placed FKP in a strong financial position with headroom to unlock profit from its land bank. Gearing 28% at July 2009
• FKP is set to capitalise on the recovery cycle with significant leverage to the residential sector through its retirement assets, master planned communities and apartment development sites
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Residential Recovery
Low interest rates, improved affordability and rising confidence have positioned the residential sector for recovery.
Australian Housing Sales Volume (000’s)
Source: ABS, 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09
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Highlights by Business Segment
• Major commercial projects successfully sold – TAC and Energex (post balance date)
• SL8 residential completed with negligible fall-over rate• Concentration on clearing inventory to recycle capital• Quality urban sites being re-weighted towards residential
Development
• Income streams satisfactory – slowdown rules out performance fees• RVG recapitalised and Core Plus funds have funding headroom
Funds Management
• First stages of Point Cook under construction with >200 pre-sales• Peregian Springs / Ridges impacted by slowdown but 2H stronger
than 1H• Rochedale approvals expected in coming months
Land
• Difficult year finished on a high note with strong June 2009 quarter• Positive momentum continuing into first quarter of FY10• Average portfolio price growth of 6%
Retirement
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CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
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• FY09 operating profit of $78.6m – within guidance of $75m - $80m
• 2H impairments and other non-operating charges of $269.4m, within guidance of $260m - $280m1
• Full year statutory result of $319.4m loss, consistent with guidance2
• Operating EPS of 7.0 cps (pro forma for full year impact of July 2009 Entitlement Offer)
• 2H distribution confirmed at 1.45 cents per security (payable September 2009, nil franked)
Profit and Loss
1 Refer to Appendix 1 for final 2H FY09 non operating items2 Refer to Appendix 2 for a reconciliation of operating profit to statutory profit
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Operating Profit
50%(3.6)(5.4)Depreciation and Amortisation
40%232.3139.5EBIT
43%46.626.5Trust and Investments
62%37.214.3Development
Steady(4.5)(4.4)Outside Equity Interests
39%235.9144.9EBITDA
6%(37.3)(35.0)Interest
46%195.0104.5Profit Before Tax
67%5.71.9Funds Management
Steady(20.5)(20.5)Unallocated Overhead
47%(40.3)(21.5)Tax
150.2
154.7
41.0
125.9
Jun 08
48%
46%
92%
5%
Change %Jun 09Division
78.6
83.0
3.2
119.5
NET PROFIT1
Profit After Tax
Land
Retirement
1 Refer to Appendix 3 for a reconciliation of segment notes to divisional operating profit and Appendix 4 for June 2009 Balance Sheet
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NTA per Security
$1.221
$3.15
Pro Forma for July Capital Raising
Actual NTA per security at June 2009
Based on its closing price of $0.59 on 26 August 2009, securities are currently trading at 52% discount to NTA
1 Based on 1,161,035,473 securities outstanding post the July 2009 completion of the Entitlement Offer
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• Effective 1 July 2009, FKP has streamlined its management reporting structure
• The previous state-based structure has been replaced by a national platform to leverage functional expertise on a national basis
New National Platform for Operations
• The new structure, together with rigorous cost control, sees FY10 budgeted headcount numbers reduced by >30% on FY09
• Future reporting will be by these segments
FKP Property Group
Retirements Residential & Communities
Commercial & Industrial
ConstructionFunds
ManagementProperty Trust &
Investments
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CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
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• FKP’s successful capital initiatives have placed the Group in a strong financial position
Capital Management Focus
• Extended or restructured $1.1b of debt facilities
• No material debt maturities until March 2011
• Operating cash flow and non-core asset disposals have significantly increased available headroom
Debt Management
• Large asset sales from FKP or managed vehicles since mid-2008 have generated approximately $500m in proceeds
• Concentration on clearance of completed inventory
• Significant reductions in employment and other operating costs (no short term incentives for FY09)
• Financing of Energex completion phase assumed by purchaser
Cash Flow Management
• Successful completion of $324m Entitlement Offer in July 2009
• Strong take up by security holders considering the renounceable structure of the issue
Equity Management
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Capital Recycling• Despite tough market conditions FKP continues to successfully recycle a significant
amount of capital through sales of product or pre-sales with fund-through arrangements
FKP JV110Melbourne Industrial512Total
1311121
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No. of Transactions
FKP173Brisbane Commercial (sale and fund through)
Trust30Brisbane Retail
FKP91Victorian Commercial
FKP JV35Sydney Retail (sale and fund through)
CPT1122Brisbane Office
FKP22Sydney Retail (sale and fund through)FKP15Queensland ResidentialFKP14Victorian Retail
VehicleValue($m)Major Recent Asset Sales and Fund Throughs
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Strong Operating Cash Flow
114.6
(100.4)
215.0
Jun 09 1
6.2
(257.0)
263.2
Jun 08
Net Cash Flow from Operations per Statutory Account s
Expenditure on inventory for future period realisation
Cash generated from recurring income and past development activity
• Lower level of new development expenditure highlights strong operating cash flow
• Sale of TAC and SL8 significant contributors to FY09 operating cash flow
• Under the alternative accounting policy adopted by some property groups, whereby “expenditure on inventory for future realisation” is classified with in “investing cash flows,” FKP would report “net cash flow from operations” of $215m for FY09
1 Refer to Appendix 5 for a summary of the Group change in cash
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Bank Debt Drawn
1,102
(14)
(37)
1,153
Actual 30 Jun 09
793
(14)
(37)
844
Jun 09 Pro Forma for Entitlement
Offer 1
(50)(18)Less: Cash
(37)(39)Less: Non bank items2
827944“Borrowings” per Accounting Standards
740887Net bank debt drawn
Actual Jul 09 (post Energex)
Entitlement Offer Pro Forma Dec
081
1 Pro forma for the July 2009 Entitlement Offer2 Includes $30m advance from Mulpha FKP joint venture plus vendor finance and lease payables
• The Entitlement Offer presentation in June 2009 used the December 2008 balance sheet as its base. Since December, cash flow generation from operations and asset sales has seen debt levels fall significantly, augmented by the capital raising
Actual net bank debt drawn at 31 July 2009
Valuations at present are typically using debt figures
around this level
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Gearing
29%
40%
28%
Jul 09 Actual
31%
42%
30%
Jun 09 Pro Forma 1
40%
55%
42%
Jun 09 Actual
55%Covenant Gearing3
Covenant Maximum
Gearing Measure
n/a
n/a
“Look Through Gearing”
Debt Gearing2
• The Entitlement Offer presentation (using December 2008 starting point) showed post-raising gearing of 34%. However as at 31 July 2009, debt gearing has reduced to 28%
1 Pro forma for the July 2009 Entitlement Offer2 Net bank debt to assets net of resident loans3 Adjusted Total Liabilities (total liabilities less resident loans less deferred tax liabilities) divided by adjusted Total Tangible Assets
(total assets less intangibles less resident loans less deferred tax liabilities)
• There are no FKP covenants relating to performance of external vehicles – “look through gearing” is provided for information purposes only
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Headroom under Bank Facilities
$1,080mTotal Cash Banking Facilities4,5
$740mNet Bank Debt Drawn as at 31 July 2009
$340mAvailable Capacity
MaturityFacility Limit
Cash Banking Facilities
Dec-11$14mPeregian Springs Shopping Centre
Dec-09$12mForest Place Group
Mar-11$375mRetirement Syndicate
Nov-09$36mCurrumbin Acquisition
Dec-09 – Jul-122$320m1Development MOF
FKP Limited Facilities
Jun-12$150mWilbow Acquisition and Development
FKP Property Trust Facilities
Jun-123$173mGeneral Trust
1 The lender also provides $45m of bank guarantee facilities comprising a general $25m bank guarantee facility plus a specific $20m Energex building bank guarantee facility2 The Development MOF facility amortises incrementally across a 3 year period. Mandated step downs comprise $10m in December 2009, $10m in June 2010, $60m in July
2011 and $15m in December 2011. The core $225m portion matures in July 20123 The Property Trust has agreed to use best efforts to repay an additional $50m of debt by 31 December 2009 through asset sales. If at least $35m is not repaid, pricing on
the facility increases by 1% from that date4 Excludes $30m advance from Mulpha FKP joint venture5 Refer to Appendix 6 and 7 for details on the Debt Maturity Profile and Interest Rates / Hedging
FKP has reached agreement for sale of a further $40m of non-core assets, which would reduce drawn debt further. If these agreements
are completed, facilities would reduce by $25m, and headroom
would increase by $15m
These facilities are secured, and are expected to be refinanced subject to
valuation
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Commitments and Capacity• Between now and March 2011, only $20m of compulsory debt amortisation is required,
$48m of debt maturities between now and December 2009 are expected to be extended (debts are secured)
• Retirement facility due for renewal March 2011. Facility has just been restructured and $375m facility is secured against assets with approximately $1.1b of book value
• FKP has no major development expenditures committed at present other than1:
− Point Cook: $25m (approx) spend between now and early 2010, to be recouped from pre-sales
− Rosebery Stage 2: $15m (approx) spend between now and September 2010, covered by pre-sales
• Assuming the maintenance of existing bank limits and current operating forecasts, the existing headroom is projected as sufficient to fund mandatory amortisation and the following projects:
1. Rochedale
2. Newstead
3. Milton
4. Albion
5. Camberwell
Where projects are staged, the funding comment relates to the first or next stage as the case may be. See slide 27 for more information
on timing and funding requirements
1 Developments over $10m of expenditure
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Continuing Focus on Cash Flow in FY10
340Residential Land
465Non-Current Inventory
7Industrial
115Residential Apartments
633
3
168
50
22
18
78
$m
Non Current Inventory
Commercial
Residential Apartments
Industrial
Total Current Inventory
Current Inventory
Total Inventory
Residential Land
Commercial
• In the next financial year, FKP has and will maintain its focus upon recycling inventory, expected to lead to a further increase in Cash Flow From Operations. June 2009 inventory is comprised as follows:
Primarily comprised of the major urban renewal sites in the project pipeline (Newstead, Milton, Albion
and Camberwell)
Includes long term master planned community projects (Point Cook,
Rochedale, Peregian Springs, Ridges and Currumbin)
Approximately $90m of inventory has already been sold or pre-sold for FY10, including the Energex building
Energex transaction occurred in July 09 and is reflected in
debt figure shown on slide 15
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40%44%
47%
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
31 July 2009 Sensitivity for afurther 10%decrease inasset value
Sensitivity for afurther 20%decrease inasset value
Sensitivity for afurther 30%decrease inasset value
Covenant Limit 55%
Sensitivities
Covenants
1 Assets sensitised include inventories, trust investment properties, and net retirement investment properties and investments
Covenant Gearing Sensitivity
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• No corporate covenants measured at June 2009. For future covenant arrangements, see Appendix 8. FKP expects to have sufficient headroom under these covenants
• With gearing now further reduced below levels indicated in the Entitlement Offer, FKP is even better positioned to withstand any further falls in asset values
Greater headroom available against possible asset value
decreases than at the time of the Entitlement Offer
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CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
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Retirement Division Status
10%8%Portfolio Turnover (based on sales)
28%29%Average DMF Rate of Existing Contracts
$1.6b$1.8bUnderlying Property Value 2
81.581.9Average Age of Residents
$29.0m$16.7mNew Sales Revenue
50%
$31.7m
Jun 08Jun 09Key Statistics (FKP Balance Sheet Portfolio)
50%
$30.1m
Average Capital Gain Share of Existing Contracts
Cash Earnings from DMF / Capital Gain
• Retirement saw a strong rebound in 2H, particularly the final quarter
• 2H re-sales were up 17% in volume terms and 37% in dollar terms on 1H
• 6% average portfolio price growth during the year
• Average resident age and average DMF rate continue to increase
1 RVG also has villages in New Zealand which are not managed by FKP
2 Includes development stock
10,238
224
4,030
5,988
Existing
1,940
257
680
1,003
Pipeline
12,178Total
481Managed for Syndicates
4,706Managed for RVG 1
6,991On FKP Balance Sheet
TotalAveo Units (Jun 09)
See Section 6 for an analysis of retirement profitability and cash flow
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
4 Qtr FY08 1 Qtr FY09 2 Qtr FY09 3 Qtr FY09 4 Qtr FY09
Retirement Division Outlook• Sales activity was strong in the final
quarter of FY09 and has continued on at the start of the new year
• Budgeting for significant lift in cash DMF / capital gain in FY10 – currently on track to meet first quarter budget
• The chart on the top right shows deposits at the end of the period. Deposits held in July 2009 are approximately 80% higher than 12 months ago
• The chart on the bottom right shows the improving trend in total DMF and capital gain received by FKP
Total Deposits 1
1 Number of deposits held at end of period across FKP balance sheet portfolio
Cash DMF and Capital Gain Trend
$m
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09
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Retirement Division Assets at June 2009
1,122FKP Balance Sheet Retirement Assets 3
1Bed licences (Intangibles)
31Investment in syndicates (Equity-Accounted Investment)
13Nursing homes (Property, Plant and Equipment)
975NPV of annuity streams (discount rate of 12.5%)(shown on balance sheet under Investment Properties, see Appendix 4)
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76
$m
New units available for first occupancy (Investment Properties)1
Retirement Division Assets 2
Retirement properties under construction (Property, Plant and Equipment) SOTP valuations often
consider only the value of the annuity streams, but the
division has material additional “hard” assets
See Section 6 for a discussion of valuation
parameters
1 Includes refurbished buyback stock2 Refer to Appendix 9 for further details of the Investment Property Assets3 Excludes working capital accounts
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Development Division Status
Revenue & Margin Summary 1
• Major achievements were completion and sale of TAC building and agreement for pre-sale and fund through of Energex building (settled post-balance date)
• Other than Rosebery, no other significant projects currently under construction
• FY09 focus was on realisation of completed inventory. Will continue in FY10 with completed stock available at Horton, Mackay, Lexington, Campbelltown, Warriewood and Brookvale
• Margins fell due to a willingness to meet the market on inventory realisation
• Management structure altered for FY10, with apartment developments transferring across to Residential and Communities division. New Commercial and Industrial division created
1 Excludes contribution of construction revenue and gross profit
166
227
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY08 FY09
$m
19% margin
7% margin
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• The major urban renewal projects have been or are being reconfigured to maximise allowable site density and allow greater weighting towards residential
Development Key Project Outlook
• Scheme has been reconfigured to increase the residential component and facilitate staged development$200mAlbion
Camberwell
Milton
Newstead
Location
• Revised FKP masterplan recently received preliminary approval to increase the overall density to 185,000sqm
• In discussions with council regarding approvals for next stage, a proposed high rise residential building of 180 apartments
• Anticipated development approval in 2010
$950m1
• Enhanced project scheme reconfigured into single tower adjacent to railway station
• Development approval application lodged with council in June for 300 unit (predominantly residential) building
$200m
• Approval for amended 144 unit residential development received from VCAT in July 2009
• Current intention to launch to market in late 2009 with construction to commence in mid-2010
$150m
StatusEstimated End Value
(Life of Project)
1 Excluding Energex building
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Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Construction Time Period2
Camberwell
Milton
Albion
Newstead
Major Development Schedule• Although timing of project commencement may vary depending upon approvals and
pre-sales levels, the chart below gives an illustrative view of the possible staging of the major development projects, construction timeframes and the funding impacts
Maximum indicative cumulative outlay of $240m
by March 2012 1
1 Refers to cumulative outlay from this point and excludes future interest2 Where projects are staged the construction period refers to the first or next stage as the case may be
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Land Division Status• Of FKP’s master planned communities,
only Peregian Springs / Ridges contributed to FY09 results
• Operating result impacted by reduced demand from second/third home buyers and from investors (Peregian Springs / Ridges not targeted at first home buyers)
• Approximately 70 settlements
• Limited scope for englobo sales as buyers impacted by tight credit markets
• Result has been fall in revenue and to a lesser degree margin
• Anticipating improved performance from Peregian Springs/ Ridges in FY10
• Strong level of buyer interest for Point Cook with >200 pre-sales
Revenue & Margin Summary
78
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FY08 FY09
$m
55% margin
47% margin
1 FY08 includes revenue from englobo sales
1
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Key Projects Overview
10 years2010500~ 300Currumbin, Gold Coast
10 years +Selling1,450~ 700Peregian Springs /
Ridges, Sunshine Coast
Pre-selling
Selling
Sales Release
Rochedale, Brisbane
Point Cook, Melbourne
Location
8 years1,100~ 400
10 years +2,3001~ 600
Approx End Value ($m)
Estimated Remaining Project Life
RemainingLots Approx.
• Additional stages at Peregian Springs and Ridges continue to be developed
• Construction work at Point Cook has commenced while planning and development approvals for Rochedale and Currumbin continue to be progressed
1 Approximately 200 lots have been pre-sold
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Point Cook Case Study
• Acquired in 2006 as part of FKP’s Wilbow purchase
• Located 20 kms southwest of the Melbourne CBD
• Master planned community of approximately 2,300 lots
• Development will also include a retail centre, a lifestyle facility and 52 hectares of open space and parkland
• Civil construction work commenced in June 2009
• Initial stages expenditure funded by dedicated financing facility
• Approximately 230 lots have been progressively released across the first four stages
• Strong level of buyer interest with >200 pre sales
• Initial stages expected to contribute in second half of FY10
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Innisfail (Peet & Co)
Status: Now Selling
Lots Remaining: 303
Featherbrook (Central Equity)
Status: Now Selling
Lots Remaining: 250
Alamanda (Villawood)
Status: Now selling
Lots Remaining: 680
Saltwater Coast
(FKP Property Group)
Status: Now Selling
Lots Remaining: 2,300 1
Sanctuary Lakes (Links Living)
Status: Now Selling
Lots Remaining: 385
Williams Landing (Cedar Woods)
Status: Now Selling
Lots Remaining: 2,120
Stockland (recent acquisition)
Status: In Planning
Yield: 1,300
Point Cook Case Study (cont)
1 Approximately 200 lots have been pre-sold
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Funds Management Division Status• Investment environment has not been
conducive to the launch of new property funds management products
• Focus has solely been on managing the existing portfolio of assets
• Executing repositioning strategies on a number of properties within the Core Plus funds
• Core Plus Fund capital positions stable. All properties externally valued at June 2009 and debt is within LVR
• RVG was recapitalised during FY09, and in common with the FKP portfolio it is now seeing an improved trend in operations
FKP Property Trust
Retirement Villages Group
Core Plus Fund
Core Plus Fund Two
Total Funds Under Management - $2.0b 1
1 FKP is joint fund manager with a 50% interest in the Retirement Villages Group fund manager
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57
3732
7
5
$0m
$10m
$20m
$30m
$40m
$50m
$60m
$70m
Assets Debt Facilities Available Drawn Debt
Current Available LVR: 65%
Current Actual LVR: 56%
130
75
56
25
19
$0m
$20m
$40m
$60m
$80m
$100m
$120m
$140m
$160m
Assets Debt Facilities Available Drawn Debt
Current Available LVR: 58%
Current Actual LVR: 43%
Fund Capital PositionsCore Plus Fund Debt Capacity
Core Plus Fund Two Debt Capacity
Retirement Villages Group (RVG)
• Strengthened fund financial position with recapitalisation in December 2008
− Renegotiation of key terms and covenants of debt facilities
− $235m of additional equity raised from existing investors
Core Plus Funds
• All assets in the Core Plus Funds were independently valued at 30 June 2009
• Post revaluation both funds are within LVR levels and also have further properties that could contribute to the security pool if needed
• Core Plus Two has uncalled equity capacity of $135m
• Debt facilities to mature in 1Q FY11
$19m of undrawn debt available
Fund includes $25m of assets not currently in security pool
$5m of undrawn debt available
Fund includes $7m asset not currently in security pool
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Funds Management Division Outlook
• Intention to grow the funds management business as market conditions improve
• Immediate focus is to continue to actively manage the current portfolio of assets
• Redevelopment approvals for a number of assets in the Core Plus Funds currently in progress
• Core Plus Fund Two has capacity to examine acquisition opportunities
WALE Profile
Core Plus Fund Two – Asset Allocation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Vacant 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016+
Core Plus Fund Two Core Plus Fund
Existing Active Core Property
19%
Uncalled Active Core Property Allocation
31%
Uncalled Eligible Developments
Allocation50%Only 19% of Core
Plus Fund Two has been invested
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Trust and Investments Status
0.70.7US Senior Living Group
2.21.1FKP Core Plus Fund
0.2-Commercial Property Trust No. 11
28.810.4Retirement Villages Group
46.6
0.1
14.6
Jun 08Jun 09Portfolio Investment Operating Profit Contribution ($m)
26.5
0.6
13.7
Total
FKP Core Plus Fund Two
FKP Property Trust
• Property Trust income decreased slightly due to sale of several neighbourhood retail assets during period
• June 2009 Property Trust book values represent a weighted average cap rate softening of approximately 100 bps since June 2008
• Refurbishment work is nearing completion at several office assets and construction completed at Browns Plains Town Centre
• RVG contribution reduced due to reduction in ownership percentage to 16% and subdued 1H trading conditions
• Despite difficult US economic climate the US Senior Living portfolio continued to perform at a satisfactory level – occupancy has remained steady and no impairment to purchase price (in US$)
114.416%3Retirement Villages Group
9.128%FKP Core Plus Fund Two15.715%FKP Core Plus Fund
532.4
30.5
362.72
Book Value ($m)
HoldingPortfolio Investments
50%
100%
Total
US Senior Living Group
FKP Property Trust
1 Trust disposed of its sole asset and fund has been wound up2 Refers to book value of investment properties as per
Appendix 103 Where investments are less than 100%, book value shown is
value of FKP interest
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Property Trust and Investments Outlook• Continue Property Trust asset sales of non
core neighbourhood retail centres to further reduce debt levels
• Management focus on leasing profile
– Clarence St and Bridge St Sydney office refurbishments nearing completion completed and are currently being marketed for lease
– Construction of Browns Plains Town Centre retail development completed and lease up in progress
– Vero tenancy at Chatswood set to expire in June 2011, although the building was acquired with renewal and/or repositioning strategies in place
• Major refurbishment work completed – no significant commitments
FKP Property Trust WALE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Vacant FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17+
Current vacancy rate result of new developments and refurbishments which
provide scope for increase in rental income as lease up progresses
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CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
38
Summary / Outlook• Caution required given the impact of the financial crisis, but FY10 operating
profit expected to be higher through completion of Energex transaction (already achieved, July 2009) and first settlements at Point Cook (expected 2H with > 200 pre-sales already made)
• Cash flow from operations also expected to be higher in FY10
• Land (now absorbed into Residential & Communities) set to re-emerge as strong contributor to profit and cash flow
• Although gearing cut substantially to 28%, FKP will continue to explore avenues to reduce debt and gearing even further (terms agreed onapproximately $40m of non-core asset sales at current time)
• Guidance of 1.0 cps minimum distribution maintained, but will be kept under review depending on results and improved economic outlook
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CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
40
Overview of Retirement• Everybody knows the “demographic story” – ageing of population and low current
penetration implies strong ongoing demand for retirement product
• Viewed as an alternative asset class but is essentially a large scale proxy for residential real estate
• Residential real estate in Australia has performed strongly over many generations – has shown high combined returns (yield & growth) with low volatility
• Individual investors seeking exposure to residential typically buy one or more houses and apartments and accept a lower cash yield (3% - 5%) than on other forms of property, because of historically proven rates of real growth
• Investing in retirement operators gives investors the opportunity to obtain exposure to existing residential stock on a scale that cannot be accessed elsewhere, and diversified across multiple properties in prime locations. The underlying value of properties in the FKP retirement portfolio is $1.8b diversified across Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide, Melbourne, Hobart, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast (with very modest regional presence)
• For property investors, retirement operators provide a means of diversification away from traditional property classes
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Annual Revaluation
• This is the change in value flowing from any movement in the discount rate – analogous to changes in cap rates on other forms of property
• As this is simply a function of the cycle and can move up or down, FKP treats any change in value through changes in discount rates as non-operating
Non-Operating
• At each accounting period, FKP revalues its portfolio, and divides the movement into two components
• Changes in value from underlying changes at the portfolio level are treated as operating
• Some treat this item as irrelevant because most is non-cash, but it is a tangible increase in the net wealth of FKP analogous to the “wealth effect” that individuals experience on the rising value of their family home or investment property
• The key components of annual operating revaluations are shown on the next slide
Operating
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Key Drivers of Annual Portfolio Valuation Change – Operating Component
Each year new units, and therefore new annuity streams, are added to the portfolio. This is analogous to increasing the value of a retail centre or commercial property by adding NLA. Also, the value of the annuity streams is improved each year by refurbishments. Many villages are now approaching an age where refurbishment opportunities are presented.
As demand permits, FKP seeks to increase the contract terms for incoming residents. In doing so, FKP increases its future “take” from the rising portfolio value. In 2006, the average DMF rate across the portfolio was 27%. It is now 29%. The capital gain share of 50% has also increased from 46% in 2006. These increases do not generate cash today, but they add to the value of the receivable.
Pool GrowthImproved Contract Terms
Each year about 10% of the portfolio is vacated (a cash-event). The other 90% of residents become one year older, and the associated receivable becomes more valuable in NPV terms.
Retirement price growth is correlated with wider residential growth but with less volatility because it is a needs-based purchase more so than a financial one. This correlation must hold true over the long-term because residents move from general property into retirement villages. Over the longer-term, disequilibrium would arise if retirement properties grew at above or below the rate of change in general residential properties.
Resident AgeingProperty Price Growth
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Balance Sheet Valuation Drivers• At June 2009 FKP has valued its annuity streams at $975m
• The three most important drivers of retirement village values are
– Projected Price Growth
– Tenure/Turnover and
– Discount Rate
• While these are the largest drivers, it is dangerous to make comparisons of value on these three factors alone, because many other variables influence value to a lesser degree, such as:
– Development assumptions
– Maintenance spending (higher in older villages) and resident/operator contribution mix
– Operating cost assumptions
– Contract term assumptions
– Terminal value assumptions
– Village operating deficits (higher in younger villages)
44
Key FKP Retirement Valuation Assumptions
10.210.3Projected Resident Tenure (years)
5%5%Future Price Growth
12.5%
Jun 09 Jun 08Key Valuation Assumptions
11.5%Discount Rate
5.4SAs
Jun 09Average Tenure (years)
11.4ILUs
10.3Blended Result Across Portfolio
45
Retirement Value DriversProperty Price Growth
• FKP’s projected price growth of 5% is higher than its competitors, which often receive adverse comment
• Such comments appear to assume that all retirement properties in all locations are equal, an implication never made with respect to other classes of property
• Like other forms of investment property, growth potential is influenced by quality and other factors such as:
– Location (FKP is concentrated in Brisbane and Adelaide, which have outperformed Sydney and Melbourne)
– Competition (FKP’s villages are concentrated in capital cities and major urban areas - not regional areas - and competition is reduced)
– Maturity (FKP’s villages are very mature –young villages do not achieve optimum growth rates while new development rates are high)
10 – 20 Years33%
0 – 10 Years7%
More than 20 Years 60%
Gold & Sunshine Coast 19%
Regional Areas4%
State Capitals77%
FKP weighted to capital cities
FKP has mature villages
Virtually all of FKP’s villages are mature so less
competition from new stock
Virtually all of the FKP portfolio is located in key
metropolitan areas where it is very difficult for others to establish competing villages
46
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Retirement Value DriversProperty Price Growth (cont)
• Retirement units must correlate with general residential over the long term
• Since 1980, the CAGR on FKP’s units is below that of any of the four major capital cities, which may be attributed to the impact of extensions and refurbishments adding to the capital value of general residential stock
• There is no evidence that FKP’s retirement growth rate is unsustainable, in fact given the demographic trends and increased refurbishment opportunities, quite the opposite
General Residential Property Price Trend vs FKP reti rement
FKP’s retirement villages have maintained CAGR of approximately 6% p.a. using data that stretches back to 30 years
SydneyMelbourneBrisbane Adelaide FKP
Source: REIA, ABS, FKP
FKP Retirement
Four capital cities
47
Retirement Value DriversProperty Price Growth Sensitivity (cont)
1,532
147
1,385
7%
1,310
147
1,163
6%
1,122
147
975
5%
964
147
817
4%
829Total Divisional Assets ($m)
147Hard Assets1 ($m)
3%Property Growth Sensitivity
682Annuity Streams ($m)
Using 5% growth-rate adopted for
accounting purposes
If actual long-term growth rate is used
• Under accounting standards, retirement villages cannot be valued as a portfolio, but rather they must be valued as the sum of discrete single village valuations
• In June 2008, an external valuation commissioned by FKP suggested a portfolio premium of approximately $60m across all retirement assets on the FKP balance sheet
• At June 2009, valuers have indicated that portfolio premiums are difficult to establish given the difficult financial markets, but a premium may be expected to re-emerge as the economy recovers
1 If different long term growth rates were to be adopted, the value of inventory and development assets might change to a small degree. These possible changes would not be material and are ignored for the purposes of this table.
48
FKP has a very high average age of residents (82 years) and its tenure assumption are related to this fact. Comparing assumptions on tenure between portfolios is meaningless unless the age of the resident pool is factored in.
Retirement Value DriversResident Turnover – Existing Residents
3.26.3Theoretical remaining tenure based on ABS
3.03.0
Industry norm ‘x’ factor – the number of years before statistical life expectancy that residents actually vacate –recognising that the majority of existing residents move to other forms of aged-care
92.489.7Actual life expectancy of existing residents per ABS
4.17.2FKP assumptions
86.2
SAsILUs
80.4Average Age of resident
Existing Resident Pool Projections (as opposed to a ssumption on future residents)
49
Retirement Value DriversResident Turnover – Future Residents
FKP Historical Average Entry Age
Replacement residents in villages tend to be the same age as existing residents for social reasons. A high average age leads to a high entry age and so on. For valuation purposes, FKP assumes a a lower average entry age in future than would otherwise be extrapolated from longer-term trends.
The tenure assumptions for
future residents is 9 years (ILUs) and 4
years (SAs). If growth in the average entry age continues,
this would prove conservative
Current trendline extrapolated
Implied entry age in valuation
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
<=1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006 - 2009 > 2009forecast
50
Retirement Value DriversTurnover Sensitivity
• This table shows sensitivities to the June 2009 valuation arising from different assumptions on the tenure of future resident intake
• No sensitivity is appropriate for existing residents since these are actuarially determined on a resident by resident basis1,1221479759.0 / 4.0
1,06414791710.0 / 4.0
1,1911471,0448.0 / 4.0
1,3481471,2017.0 / 3.0
795
Annuity Streams
($m)
147
Hard Assets 1
($m)
94211.0 / 5.0
Total ($m)
Turnover ILUs / SAsSensitivity (years)
1 If different turn over rates were to be adopted, the value of inventory and development assets might change to a small degree. These possible changes would not be material and are ignored for the purposes of this table.
Assumption adopted for accounting purposes
51
Retirement Value DriversDiscount Rate
• As with property growth, it should not be expected that all retirement villages would have the same discount rate any more than all commercial properties should have the same cap rate
• Village quality, location and maturity are all relevant in determining discount rates
• FKP’s villages are overwhelmingly in reduced competition capital city locations
• The high average age of FKP residents implies that projected cash receipts are relatively closer to collection point – a lower risk proposition
• FKP’s assumptions were borne out by external valuation at Jun 08 and the Jun 09 Directors valuation has eased the discount rate by 100 bps cumulatively
1,06414791713.0%
865
975
1,038
1,107
Annuity Streams
($m)
147
147
147
147
Hard Assets 1
($m)
1,01213.5%
1,12212.5%
1,18512.0%
1,25411.5%
Total ($m)
Discount Rate Sensitivity
1 If different discount rates were to be adopted, the value of inventory and development assets might change to a small degree. These possible changes would not be material and are ignored for the purposes of this table.
This matrix shows the impact on division assets of a change in the discount rate, keeping other assumptions constant
52
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
No. of units
Retirement Occupancy AnalysisAvailable for
traditional resale1.3%
Resident vacated, but DMF still accruing
2.2%
Residents in place88.3%
Unsold development stock2.2%
Units being refurbished
3.0%
Units withheld for total village for redevelopment
0.7%
Units not available for sale (eg. respite, managers units)
0.5%
A number of competitors publish “occupancy” figures, but there is no consistency in the definitions used. The table on this slide shows the status of different units in the portfolio as at June 2009. The number of units for sale is close to a cyclical high given the difficult trading conditions that applied through most of FY09. Care needs to be taken with “occupancy” because cash is generated on turnover events – a static resident base could produce high “occupancy”but have low frequency of turnover
Refurbished & available for sale
1.8%
53
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2054 2059
% o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Age
d 75
+
--
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Est
imat
ed D
eman
d fo
r R
etire
men
t Uni
ts
Industry Outlook• A lot of published data concentrates on projected growth in the 55yo+ or 65yo+ cohorts, but given that FKP’s
residents have an average age of 82, a lot of this data is only of incidental relevance
• ABS projections are that the 75yo+ segment of the population will double in relative strength from 6% to 12% of the population in the next 50 years
• The following table shows that the volume of stock serving this age group would have to rise from approximately 50,000 to 180,000 over that period, assuming no change in the penetration rate
• If the Australian penetration rate increases these figures would be boosted even further
• These projections underscore the massive ongoing investment necessary in retirement just to maintain equilibrium
• Strong demand leads to accelerated price growth, but given that retirement pricing must remain correlated (that is be held back by) changes in general residential pricing, it is more likely that the favourable demographics will be reflected in tightening of discount rates over time
Source: ABS, JLL, FKP estimates
% of population 75+
Demand for Retirement Units
54
Retirement Accounting and Cash Reconciliation FY09
(69.1)
(69.1)
Property Trust
(130.5)
(130.5)
Retirement Non-
Operating
100.5
(51.2)
151.7
Retirement Operating
(51.2)Change in Fair Value of Resident Obligations
(99.1)Net Disclosed in Income Statement
(47.9)
Statutory Accounts Income
Statement
Revaluation within Statutory Accounts ($m)
Change in Fair Value of Investment Properties
3.1Working Capital Reduction
(93.0)Net Non-Cash Component of Operating Revaluation
Less:
13.8Realisation of past period development expenditure
(0.9)Share of Syndicate Profits
42.5Segment Contribution
119.5
Jun 09 ($m)
Cash Flow from Operations
Operating Profit
(130.5)Non-Operating Revaluation Component (Discount Rate)
Less:
(1.1)Site Impairment
(0.3)Depreciation
(13.3)Statutory Segment Note
(0.9)Share of Syndicate Profits
119.5
Jun 09($m)
Profit & Loss
Operating Profit
(4.7)Net movement in deferred income/accrued DMF
(2.8)Cash component (relates to development)
93.0Net Non-Cash Component of Operating Revaluation
100.5
($m)Non-Cash Operating Revaluation
Component disclosed separately in Income Statement
55
Cash Flow from Operations –Retirement FY09
13.2Development Cash flow from Operations
6.3
30.1
(7.1)Other – Includes aged care trading, management fees, change in working capital, all net of overheads
Cash DMF/CG
Represented by:
36.4DMF per Statutory Accounts
Other Resident Receipts
42.5
Jun 09 ($m)
Retirement Cash Flow from Operations
Retirement share of $114.6m Cash Flow from Operations per Statutory
Accounts
DMF/CG per Statutory Accounts is these cash receipts from residents, net of $4.7m increase in deferred income / DMF, equals $31.7m per
Note 2 of Statutory Accounts
Total Cash DMF/CG represents approximately 3.75% yield on
valuation, lower yield than usual because of low-cycle trading in the first 9 months. At Q4 2009 run rate,
yield would be 4.7%
56
CONTENTS1. Overview2. Summary of Group Results3. Capital Management4. Divisional Commentary5. Summary6. Retirement Supplementary Analysis7. Appendices
57
Appendices
Summary of FKP Property Trust AssetsAppendix 10
Reconciliation of Investment Property AssetsAppendix 9
Bank CovenantsAppendix 8
Statutory (AIFRS) ProfitAppendix 2
Bank Debt Maturity ProfileAppendix 6
Summary of Group Change in CashAppendix 5
Reconciliation of Segment Notes to Divisional Operating ProfitAppendix 3
About FKPAppendix 11
Appendix 7
Appendix 4
Appendix 1
Interest Rates / Hedging
June 2009 Balance Sheet
Non-Operating Items
58
Non-Operating Items
• Non-operating items for the second half of the financial year ended 30 June 2009 resulted in an overall charge to statutory profit of $269.4m prior to tax
• This figure relates largely to impairments of assets, plus a relatively minor amount of non-operating expenses as set out below
1 The after tax is not 70% of the pre-tax because of the impact of the Property Trust assets and some joint venture items, as well as sundries such as options expense
204.6 After Tax 1
269.4 Total Non-Operating Items
Other non-operating items including hedging, options expensing9.5 Other items
Predominately interests in RVG and Norwest JV76.3 Investments
FKP Property Trust assets (updated valuation)48.8Trust investment properties
50 basis point increase in discount rate used to determine fair value63.0Retirement investment properties
Assessed impairment of development and land projects based on DCF of updated feasibilities
71.8 Inventory
DescriptionAmount ($m)Asset
Appendix 1
59
Statutory (AIFRS) Profit
(23.7)Other equity investments write-down
(11.6)Managed funds carrying value adjustment
(18.3)Mark to market of interest rate swaps
(2.4)Non-cash share-based payments under AASB2
(118.0)Development assets impairment
(16.6)Disposal of investments
(319.4)Headline Profit After Tax
78.6Operating Profit After Tax
(1.3)Other
(2.4)Redundancy costs
(67.8)FKP Property Trust asset write-downs
(44.6)RVG investment write-down
$m
(91.3)Non operating write-downs in retirement portfolio (discount rate to 12.5%)
• Impairments and write-downs in line with disclosures in July 2009 Entitlement Offer
Appendix 2
60
Reconciliation of Segment Notes to Divisional Operating ProfitAppendix 3
144.913.823.726.1101.467.8130.5168.5(386.9)EBITDA
16.6
-
(7.1)
-
23.7
-
-
23.7
-
-
-
-
-
Loss on Investment
Disposal
18.3
-
(7.8)
-
26.1
-
-
26.1
-
-
-
-
-
Interest Rate
SWAPs
79.9
-
(21.5)
-
101.4
-
101.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
Share of Equity
Investments
67.8
-
-
-
67.8
-
-
-
67.8
-
-
-
-
Trust Asset Write-downs
91.3
-
(39.2)
-
130.5
-
-
-
-
-
130.5
-
-
Retirement Portfolio
Write-down
-(15.1)-(86.3)Equity Investments
(21.5)(2.5)(50.5)107.1Income Tax
78.66.1118.0(319.4)NPAT
(4.4)(3.7)-(0.7)Minority Interest
(35.0)3.9-(38.9)Unallocated/ Interest Expense
139.58.4168.5(386.9)EBIT
(5.4)(5.4)--Depreciation and Amortisation
11.5
10.1
1.9
1.2
3.4
0.8
Other
-
-
-
1.1
123.2
44.2
Inventory Impairment
(20.5)
26.5
1.9
119.5
14.3
3.2
Operating Profit
Reported Segment
ProfitDivision
(81.8)
(51.4)
-
(13.3)
(112.3)
(41.8)
Other/ Unallocated
Trust and Investments
Funds Management
Retirement
Development
Land
61
June 2009 Summary Balance Sheet
3,772Total Assets
3Intangibles
69PP&E
327Investments
142Cash/ Receivables/ Other
633
2,598
$m
Investment Properties
Assets
Inventories(37)Other Borrowings
(23)Hedge Liability
(2,658)Total Liabilities
1,114Net Assets
(153)Deferred Tax
(197)Payables & Provisions
(1,116)
(1,132)
$m
Resident Loans
Liabilities
Bank Debt
Appendix 4
62
Summary of Group Change in CashAppendix 5
0
50
100
150
200
250O
peni
ng C
ash
Net
Ope
ratin
g C
ash
Flo
wB
efor
e In
vent
ory
Inve
stm
ent
Pay
men
t for
Fut
ure
Inve
ntor
y
Pur
chas
e or
Con
stru
ctio
n of
Inve
stm
ent P
rope
rtie
s
Oth
er
Div
iden
ds a
nd D
istrib
utio
nsP
aid
Cap
ital R
aisi
ng P
roce
eds
Inte
rest
& o
ther
fina
nce
cost
Oth
er D
ebt C
ash
Flo
w
Clo
sing
Cas
h
215
(100)
27
(73)(38)
(90)
125
(71)
7.313
63
Bank Debt Maturity Profile
•No material debt maturities until the Retirement Syndicate facility in March 2011
•All loans are secured
$0m
$100m
$200m
$300m
$400m
$500m
Q1 FY10 Q2 FY10 Q3 FY10 Q4 FY10 Q1 FY11 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1 FY13
Appendix 6
64
Interest Rates / Hedging
80774463
Bank Debt ($m) (1)
6.4%6.7%3.2%
Avg Base Rate
100%93%7%
% of Bank Debt
NA1.7 years
NA
Weighted Avg Maturity
Debt Type
Total / Weighted Av.Fixed Rate Bank DebtFloating Rate Bank Debt
• Average portfolio base rate expected to fall as interest rate hedges continue to expire2
1 Bank debt at 30 June 2009 pro forma for July Entitlement Offer2 Counterparties hold options to extend swaps in some cases. This chart shows a worst case outcome assuming those options are exercised
744
503 475325 325 275 275
80--
200
400
600
800
1,000
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12
Hed
ged
Deb
t ($m
)
Appendix 7
65
Bank Covenants
• Three key ongoing financial covenants will be measured at corporate level
− Covenant gearing = total liabilities / total tangible assets maximum of 55%1
− Interest cover to exceed2
– 1.5x (12 months to June 2010)
– 1.75x (12 months to December 2010)
– 2.0x (six monthly thereafter)
− Total net tangible assets to be not less than $1.0 billion
− No corporate ICR test applied at June 2009 under any facility
• Facility specific covenants also exist within the retirement syndicate (1.2x cash cover covenant) and General Trust facility (1.3x cash cover covenant for FY10, increasing to 1.4x and 1.5x in the two financial years thereafter). Maximum LVR of 60% under both facilities
1 Adjusted Total Liabilities (total liabilities less resident loans less deferred tax liabilities) divided by adjusted Total Tangible Assets (total assets less intangibles less resident loans less deferred tax liabilities)
2 Measured as the ratio of (i) operating EBITDA adjusted for the net change in fair value of retirements/other investment properties and resident obligations and less write-down of current inventory to (ii) profit and loss interest expense excluding certain one-off fees/payments to lenders
Appendix 8
66
Reconciliation of Investment Property Figure in Statutory Accounts
363Investment properties – FKP Property Trust
2,598Total Investment Properties per Balance Sheet
(2)Straight-lining adjustment
2,237Investment properties – Retirement
76New units available for first occupancy
975NPV of annuity streams
54
1,132
$m
Resident loans
Deferred Income net of Accrued DMF
Appendix 9
67
Summary of FKP Property Trust Assets
8.5024.4RetailQLDBrowns Plains JV8.2536.5RetailQLDBrowns Plains TC
362.7Total
8.2523.5RetailNSWIllawong
7.757.758.008.757.75
8.257.508.007.25
Cap. Rate 30 Jun 09 1
16.0RetailQLDRedbank Plains
26.5Bulky goodsQLDBrowns Plains
11.0RetailQLDIndooroopilly34.0OfficeNSW52 Clarence St
20.3RetailQLDPeregian Springs19.6OfficeNSW17 Bridge St
40.1OfficeVIC399 Lonsdale St32.3OfficeNSW8 Spring St78.5OfficeNSW Vero Tower
30 June 09Book Value ($m)
SectorStateAsset
1 Weighted average cap. rate change of approximately 100bps since June 2008
Appendix 10
68
• FKP is a leading Australian property and investment group
• The FKP strategy of diversification and integration has seen it build a comprehensive property portfolio
• The business capitalises on its proven expertise in development, construction, land subdivision, retirement village ownership and management, property investment and asset management
• Over more than thirty years the portfolio has grown to include mixed use, land, retail, apartments, retirement, industrial and commercial, that today defines how hundreds of thousands of people come together to live, work, play and invest
About FKPAppendix 11
69
About FKP
Retirement
• Leader in Australian retirement village market
• Eighty villages1 in prime locations
• Ability to leverage FKP development and construction capability to effectively manage village stock quality
Investment and Funds Management
• Manager of unlisted property funds specialising in core and value-add property assets
• Direct ownership and joint ventures across commercial, retail and retirement sectors
• Ability to leverage FKP development and construction capability
Retirement Investment and Funds Management
Appendix 11 (continued)
1 35 villages managed for third parties
70
Appendix 11 (continued)
Development and Construction
• A well positioned development pipeline diversified across sectors and geographies
• An experienced integrated construction capability that delivers on targeted projects in the development and retirement portfolios
Land
• Specialist expertise in creating master planned communities
• Strategically placed land estates that provide a pipeline for future growth
Development Land
About FKP
71
DISCLAIMERThe content of this presentation is for general information only. Information in this presentation including, without limitation, any forward-looking statements or opinions (Information ) may be subject to change without notice. To the maximum extent permitted by law, FKP Property Group, its officers and employees do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Information and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the Information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
The information contained in this presentation should not be considered to be comprehensive or to comprise all the information which a security holder or potential investor in FKP may require in order to determine whether to deal in FKP securities. This presentation does not take into account the financial situation, investment objectives and particular needs of any particular person.
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” including indications of, and guidance on, future earnings, financial position and performance. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of FKP and its officers and employees, that may cause actual results to differ materially from those predicted or implied by any forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these forward-looking statements.
All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$) unless otherwise stated.