Five Year Forecast · Five Year Forecast FY17 –FY21 Presented: October, 2016 Office of the...
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Five Year Forecast FY17 – FY21 Presented: October, 2016 Office of the Treasurer Office of Budget & Financial Management Stanley J. Bahorek, Treasurer/CFO Scott Gooding, Executive Director Michael McCammon, Contoller
Transcript of Five Year Forecast · Five Year Forecast FY17 –FY21 Presented: October, 2016 Office of the...
Five Year ForecastFY17 – FY21
Presented: October, 2016
Office of the Treasurer Office of Budget & Financial Management
Stanley J. Bahorek, Treasurer/CFO Scott Gooding, Executive Director
Michael McCammon, Contoller
GENERAL FUNDAnd Related Debt Service
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SUMMARYUpdated for FY16 Actual
FY17 – FY21 Projected
In line with Levy Plan & FY17 Appropriations
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($400)
($200)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mill
ion
sREVENUES EXPENDITURES
CASH BALANCE
SUMMARYIncludes additional personnel in Levy Plan
Includes non-personnel budgets in Levy Plan
Expenditures exceed Revenues in all years
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($400)
($200)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mill
ion
sREVENUES EXPENDITURES
CASH BALANCE
SUMMARYNO NEW REVENUE
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($400)
($200)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mill
ion
sREVENUES EXPENDITURES
CASH BALANCE
OCTOBER vs. MAY2016
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TOTAL REVENUES - OCT vs. MAY, 2016
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$MILLIONS MAY OCTOBER CHANGE
FY16 $798.2 $804.8 +$6.6
FY17 $833.2 $833.8 +$0.6
FY18 $849.4 $846.2 -$3.2
FY19 $873.7 $870.0 -$3.7
FY20 $902.7 $898.4 -$4.3
FIVE YEAR TOTAL
$4,257.2 $4,253.2 -$4.0
FIVE YEAR PERCENTCHANGE
-0.09%$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Mill
ion
s
MAY 2016 FYF OCT 2016 FYF
TOTAL EXPENDITURES - OCT vs. MAY, 2016
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$MILLIONS MAY OCTOBER CHANGE
FY16 $812.4 $811.8 -$0.6
FY17 $886.4 $873.9 -$12.5
FY18 $910.6 $900.0 -$10.6
FY19 $941.7 $935.7 -$6.0
FY20 $980.5 $981.1 -$0.6
FIVE YEAR TOTAL
$4,531.6 $4,502.5 -$29.0
FIVE YEAR PERCENTCHANGE
-0.64%$650
$750
$850
$950
$1,050
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Mill
ion
s
MAY 2016 FYF OCT 2016 FYF
JUNE 30 CASH BALANCE - OCT vs. MAY, 2016
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$MILLIONS MAY OCTOBER CHANGE
FY16 $124.7 $131.9 +$7.2
FY17 $71.5 $91.8 +$20.3
FY18 $10.2 $38.0 +$27.8
FY19 -$57.8 -$27.7 +$30.0
FY20 -$135.5 $110.4 +$25.1
FIVE YEAR TOTAL
+$25.1
($150)
($100)
($50)
$0
$50
$100
$150
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Mill
ion
s
MAY 2016 FYF OCT 2016 FYF
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget Preparation
Forecast
Levy Plan
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget Preparation
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Levy Plan
FAC FAC
FAC
FAC FAC
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget Preparation
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
Levy Plan
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget PreparationAdopt
Approp. Res.
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
Levy Plan
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget PreparationAdopt
Approp. Res.
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
Levy Plan
Levy Millage Committee Meetings
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget PreparationAdopt
Approp. Res.
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
FY16 End
Levy Plan
Levy Millage Committee Meetings
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget PreparationAdopt
Approp. Res.
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
FY16 End
October FYF Preparation
Levy Plan
Levy Millage Committee Meetings
FAC
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget PreparationAdopt
Approp. Res.
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
FY16End
October FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
Levy Plan
Levy Millage Committee Meetings
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January Feb. March April May June July August Sept. October
Budgets FY17 - FY21 Budget PreparationAdopt
Approp. Res.
ForecastMay FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
FY16End
October FYF Preparation
Adopt FYF
Levy Plan
Levy Millage Committee Meetings
OCTOBER vs. LEVY PLAN2016
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TOTAL REVENUES - OCT vs. LEVY PLAN
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$MILLIONS LEVYPLAN
OCTOBER CHANGE
FY16 $798.2 $804.8 +$6.6
FY17 $833.2 $833.8 +$0.6
FY18 $849.4 $846.2 -$3.2
FY19 $873.7 $870.0 -$3.7
FY20 $902.7 $898.4 -$4.3
FY21 $930.9 $929.0 -$2.0
SIX YEAR TOTAL
$5,188.1 $5,182.2 -$5.9
SIX YEAR PERCENTCHANGE
-0.11%
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mill
ion
s
LEVY PLAN OCT 2016 FYF
TOTAL EXPENDITURES - OCT vs. LEVY PLAN
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$MILLIONS LEVY PLAN
OCTOBER CHANGE
FY16 $812.4 $811.8 -$0.6
FY17 $873.4 $873.9 +$0.4
FY18 $900.4 $900.0 -$0.4
FY19 $936.0 $935.7 -$0.4
FY20 $981.2 $981.1 -$0.1
FY21 $1,046.7 $1,045.7 -$0.9
SIX YEAR TOTAL
$5,550.1 $5,548.3 -$1.8
SIX YEAR PERCENTCHANGE
-0.03%
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mill
ion
s
LEVY PLAN OCT 2016 FYF
JUNE 30 CASH BALANCE - OCT vs. LEVY PLAN
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$MILLIONS LEVYPLAN
OCTOBER CHANGE
FY16 $124.7 $131.9 +$7.2
FY17 $84.5 $91.8 +$7.4
FY18 $33.4 $38.0 +$4.6
FY19 -$28.9 -$27.7 +$1.2
FY20 -$107.4 $110.4 -$3.0
FY21 -$223.1 -$227.2 -$4.1
SIX YEAR TOTAL
-$4.1($250)
($200)
($150)
($100)
($50)
$0
$50
$100
$150
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Mill
ion
s
LEVY PLAN OCT 2016 FYF
OCTOBER 2016 FORECAST SUMMARY
• FY16 RESULTS INCLUDED
• REVENUE & EXPENDITURES IN LINE WITH LEVY PLAN
• LEVY PLAN ADDITONAL PERSONNEL INCLUDED
• LEVY PLAN NON-PERSONNEL BUDGETS INCLUDED
• EXPENDITURES EXCEED REVENUES IN EACH YEAR
• FY19 FIRST YEAR WITH NEGATIVE ENDING CASH BALANCE
• NO NEW REVENUE
• NO CHANGE IN FINANCIAL BASIS FOR LEVY REQUEST
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Five Year ForecastFY17 –FY21
Presented: October, 2016
Conclusion
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