“Five Rivers”

Learning our way to active management

with “Options Forestry”

How we did it on the Siuslaw NF

USDA Forest ServiceSiuslaw National Forest and

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Pre

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Northwest Forest Plan1994

2004

1984

2014

Yea

rRange of management alternatives considered

DA

Struggle on to active management,by decree

Learn our way to active management

DThe range of future directions

Passive management(Nat’l Park model)A

Continue Plan without adaptive management

B CC

B

We seek to inform , the alternative of learning our way to active management.C

Policy context

Passive or active management?

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Northwest Forest Plan

How do we get there?

1994

2004

1984

2014

Yea

r

Struggle on to active management, emphasizing fire risks and the need to manage plantations

Fight harder over the uncertainties

Range of management alternatives considered

D

End with passive management as an unintended outcome?

A

Policy context

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Indu

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Northwest Forest Plan

How do we get there?

1994

2004

1984

2014

Yea

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Learn our way to active management with Options Forestry (Five Rivers)

Take a harder look at the uncertainties

Range of management alternatives considered

C

Policy context

Apply multiple pathways

Look for and accept uncertainties that are found (especially in decision documents),

Diversify management policies and practices to hedge against uncertainty,

Learn from scientifically structured comparisons of different policies and practices, and

Clarify interlinked roles of researchers and managers (with mutually beneficial goals).

Four Principles of Options Forestry Research and Management

Bormann, BT, and AR Kiester. 2004. Options forestry: acting on uncertainty. J Forestry 102: 22-27.

Theory

Combined uncertainty = ?

Kinds of uncertainty

Questions

Knowable: a continuum of widely held to widely questioned assumptions

Unknowable

Policy

Scie

nce

Individual mechanisms are well understood?General findings apply well at specific sites? Mechanism interactions are known? Ecosystem patterns and processes are understood? Scaling properties are known?

Societal goals are actually known? Legal direction is clear? Institutions are capable of implementing policy? Stated goals are actually achieved? Specific objectives are met? Indicators of performance are met?

Policy

Scie

nce

Goals shift, new laws are passed, September 11, …

Unexpected mechanisms emerge—perhaps new biota- environment interactions under a changing climate.

Theory

An example: applying options forestryin the Five Rivers Landscape Management Project

Create late-successional habitat;Improve streams; andReduce road maintenance costs.

Initial management goals:

Application

Plantations

226 +/- 106 trees/acre

“Old-growth”43 +/- 21 trees/acre

Here

There?

Create late-successional habitat;Improve streams; andReduce road maintenance costs.

Initial management goals:

Added options-forestry goals:

Acknowledge uncertainty;Diversify approaches; Learn from a rigorous operational experiment; Link researchers and managers.

Application An example: applying options forestryin the Five Rivers Landscape Management Project

“Not enough is known for people to agree on a single approach to meet the goals of the Northwest Forest Plan, partly a result of ineffective past monitoring strategies. Especially poorly known is how plantations, riparian zones, and roads can be efficiently managed together through time. Thus, he [Forest Supervisor] saw a need to speed learning by comparing a variety of strategies for achieving late-successional conditions and aquatic conservation”

The watershed is 78,000 acres

The 12 experimental units average 1300 acres each

Acknowledge uncertainties

Diversify

Speed learning

Application

Planning area

Application

Fede

ral R

egis

ter

Fede

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egis

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Notice of Intent

Informal case study

Five Rivers NEPA model

(111 Kb pdf file)

(16 Mb pdf file) (388 Kb pdf file) (71 Kb doc file)

Five Rivers Project Initiation letter

(not available)

http://www.fsl.orst.edu/5rivers

Similarity analysis

Large-scale map

Pulsed

Passive

Continuous

Continuous

Continuous

Passive

Passive

Pulsed

Passive

Pulsed

Privateland

1 sq.mile

Continuous

Pulsed

Passive–-decommissions roads, allows existing plantations and aquatic systems to achieve objectives on their own;

Continuous–-maintains roads open and thins plantations and restores streams frequently and at low intensity; and

Pulsed–-thins plantations and restores streams aggressively, then closes roads for 30 years before reopening them for further management.

Multiple pathways

Application

Pathway A. Active salvage, replanting, and vegetation management, constrained by ROD; no fuels-management zones around the perimeters.

Pathway B. Promoting natural recovery processes & 200-ft fuels-management zones.

Pathway C. Active salvage and reintroducing landscape-scale, low-intensity fire & 400-ft fuels-management zones.

Biscuit Fire management experiment

Three pathways randomly assigned to 3000-acre areas within 4 initially similar blocks

Sourgrass block 2;high habitat potential

Hobson block 3;medium habitat potential

Fishhook block 1 Silver Fire and low habitat potential

Briggs block 4;Low habitat potential

C4

B4

A4

C1

C2

B2

A2

B3

B1

A3C3

A1

Biscuit Fire perimeter

Silver Fire perimeter

Kalmiopsis Wilderness boundary

Multiple pathways

Kalmiopsis Wilderness boundary Biscuit Fire

perimeter

Learning by Managers About: Learning by Researchers About:

Clarify interlinked roles of researchers and managers

“learn our way to active management”Knowns and unknowns about different and creative pathways

How to convince ourselves and others with evidence from multiple-pathway comparisons

Application

What managers need to know

How to learn at the scale and complexity of

management

Effectiveness of past management

There’s a lot to learn from past management, and we now have the data and technology to do it

Historic air photo interpretation in GIS

Vegetation changes from 1939 to 1962

Loss

Gain

Conversion to shrubs

RSAC

Add in Retro study

Failure: few Doug-fir (25-50%; other species 50-75%)

Failure: very few Doug-fir (0-25%; other species 75-100%)

Doug-fir 50-75%; other species 25-50%

Success: nearly full Doug-fir stocking (75-100% canopy cover)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%Deviation from intended full Douglas-fir stocking (% total area)

All 1157 managed units on federal land in the watershed

Timber management was less successful than expected (nature bats last);

Management success improved over time; and

“Failures” of one intent can benefit another (late-succession goals).

Initial Results

Reducing risk by not putting all our eggs in one basket (given the high uncertainty).

Reducing uncertainty by learning about different pathways (to manage landscapes to achieve late successional and riparian goals) to support better decisions and increase decision space.

Improving research-management collaborationby creating a synergy with a common goal of learning, and mutually beneficial work.

Increasing connection to disparate societal groups by writing better decision documents and demonstrating tolerance of different societal views.

General Benefits of the Options Forestry,Five Rivers Approach