1

Making African forests fit for climate change

A REGIONAL VIEW OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ON FORESTS AND PEOPLE, AND OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION

POLICY BRIEF

2

Editors

MichaEl KlEinE, iUFro-sPdc coordinator

alExandEr BUcK, GFEP coordinator

chris EastaUGh, contEnt Editor

laYoUt

Kari lEhKonEn

KPl GraPhics

covEr PictUrE

MiKE WinGFiEld

PUBlishEd BY

intErnational Union oF ForEst rEsEarch orGanizations

isBn 978-3-901347-91-7

PrintEd BY

ErWEKo

3

Contents

Foreword 4Keymessages 6WhyAfricanforestsmatter 8HowclimatechangeaffectsforestsandpeopleinAfrica 12 Observedenvironmentalimpactsandvulnerabilities 14 Futureenvironmentalimpactsandvulnerabilities 17 Futuresocio-economicimpactsandvulnerabilities 21 Implicationsforsustainabledevelopment 29Adaptationoptions 30 Sustainableforestmanagement 31 Policyandgovernance 36 Traditionalforestknowledge 38 Knowledgegaps 38 Contributionofforeststoachievingbroader 39 adaptationgoals

Pete

r ta

rasi

ewic

z

4

Foreword

This policy brief is the result of collaboration between the IUFRO-led CPF initiative “Global Forest Expert Panels” (GFEP), the IUFRO Special Programme for Developing Countries (IUFRO-SPDC), key experts from the Forestry Research Network for Sub-Saharan Africa, and on-going international research projects in Africa. It is based on a detailed analysis of relevant information contained in the global assessment report Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change (IUFRO World Series Volume 22) and more than 250 additional literature references identified by African experts. These references have been analysed in a sepa-rate scientific report “Making African Forests Fit for Climate Change”.

We express our sincere gratitude to the following ex-perts for their contributions to the analysis: Louis Ber-nard Cheteu (Cameroon), Joseph Cobbinah (Ghana), Francis Dwomoh (Ghana), Bernard Foahom (Cam-eroon), Ernest Foli (Ghana), Steve Makungwa (Ma-lawi), Phanuel Oballa (Kenya), Henry Utila (Mala-wi), and Monica Idinoba and Johnson Nkem (both of whom were at the Center for International Forest-ry Research during the implementation of this project). We also thank Pia Katila for assisting in content edit-ing, Alastair Sarre for language editing and the GFEP Steering Committee for both its guidance and its ap-proval of the publication of this policy brief.

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support and expert advice provided by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development through GTZ, the United States Forest Service, and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. Without their generous support this project would not have been re-alized.

A short publication such as this cannot cover eve-ry issue related to the adaptation of forests and people to climate change in Africa. Moreover, the analysis re-veals that there are still major gaps in knowledge about the impacts of climate change on forests and people in Africa and about how adaptation measures can best be tailored to local conditions. Nevertheless, it is our hope that this policy brief will contribute to the development of effective adaptation strategies in Africa and facilitate related international efforts.

MichaelKleine

IUFRO-SPDCCoordinator

AlexanderBuck

GFEPCoordinator

ChrisEastaugh

ContentEditor

5

aFrican ExPErts GathErEd in dEcEMBEr

2009 at iUFro hEadqUartErs in viEnna

to draFt thE KEY MEssaGEs oF this

PolicY BriEF.

taru

n K

. Bat

hij

a

6

1) Although climate-change projections for Africa are

highlyvariable,theaverageincreaseintemperatureon

the continent is likely to be higher than the average

increase globally. There is a significant risk that the

adaptivecapacityofmanyAfricanforestecosystems

toprovidevitalgoodsandserviceswillbeexceeded.

2) PeopleinAfricaarehighlydependentonforestgoods

andservicesandthereforeareparticularlyvulnerable

totheimpactsofclimatechange.Individuals,societies

andinstitutionsshouldbeawareofthelikelyimpacts

ofclimatechangeonforestsandforest-dependentpeo-

pleandputstrategiesinplacetoadapttothem.

3) Improving the adaptive capacity of forest-dependent

communities is important inorder toreduce theirvul-

nerabilitytotheeffectsofclimatechange.Participatory

approachesshouldbeusedtoobtainabetterunderstand-

ingoflocalknowledgeandperceptionsofclimatechange

andtoraiseawarenessaboutvulnerabilitiesandrelated

adaptationmeasures.Moreover,thereisaneedtodevel-

opandreorienteducationalsystemsandprogrammes.

4) Climatechangeisaddingtoarangeofotherpressures

– such as agricultural expansion and the over-use of

forests–onforestecosystemsinAfrica,someofwhich

are currently more pressing than climate change.

Measuresthatreducenon-climaticpressurescanhelp

reduce theoverallvulnerabilityof forest ecosystems.

Key messages

Suchmeasures,includingforestrestorationandreha-

bilitation,canbeimplementedinanintegratedmanner

aspartofsustainableforestmanagement.

5) The development and implementation of adaptation

measures as part of sustainable forest management

needtobeunderpinnedbynewmodesofgovernance

thataresensitivetocontext,takeabroadviewofcom-

munityneeds,andrespondquicklytopolicylearning.

Governance that enables effective stakeholder and

communityparticipation,transparentandaccountable

decision-making, secure land ownership and tenure,

andtheequitablesharingofbenefitsandresponsibili-

tiesneedstobepromoted.

6) Climate-changeadaptationplanninginAfricaisham-

peredbyalackofinformationaboutcurrentandfuture

climate-related impacts and vulnerabilities. Reliable

projections of regional and local impacts require in-

vestments in research and monitoring infrastructure

and increased support for earlywarning systems and

preparednessmeasures.

7) Forestscanplayanimportantroleinachievingbroader

climate-changeadaptationgoalsbutmaybethreatened

byimpactsfromothersectors.Strategiesforadapting

foreststoclimatechangeshouldbecoordinatedwith

thoseofothersectorsandintegratedintonationaland

regionaldevelopmentprogrammesandstrategies.

6

7

Bru

no

Lo

cate

LLi althoUGh aFrica contriBUtEs

lEss than 4% oF GloBal

GrEEnhoUsE Gas EMissions,

it Will BE Most iMPactEd BY

cliMatE chanGE.

‘Climate change does not distinguish between industrialized and developing countries.’H.E. Ban Ki-moonUnited Nations Secretary-General

8

Why African forests matter

Africaaccountsforaboutone-fifthoftheearth’slandarea. Forests cover more than 635 million hectares,whichismorethan20%ofthecontinent’slandarea.Africa is home to diverse and unique forest ecosys-tems; the Congo Basin, for example, contains theworld’s second largest area of dense tropical rainfor-estaftertheAmazon.Intotal,Africanforestsmakeupabout16%oftheglobalforestarea(Figure1).

Africanforestsarerichinbiodiversity.Theconti-nent’stropicalforestsareestimatedtoharbour12000plantspecies,including7500ormorethatareendemic.TheCongoBasinaccountsformorethanhalfofAfri-ca’sbiodiversity.OtherAfricanecosystemswithespe-ciallyhighnumbersofendemicspeciesincludetheGui-neanforestsofwestAfrica;thecoastalforestsofeast-ernAfrica;theeasternAfromontaneregion,Madagas-car,theIndianOceanIslands,andMaputaland–Pondo-land–Albany(ontheeastcoastofsouthernAfrica);andtheSucculentKarooofSouthAfricaandNamibia.

African forests are important carbon sinks. Theyareestimatedtocontainover100gigatonneswofcar-bon,whichis,onaverage,about160tonnesofcarbonperhectare.Intheperiod2000–2005,however,about4millionhectaresofforestwerelostannually(main-lyduetoconversiontosmall-scalepermanentagricul-ture),resultinginthereleaseoflargeamountsofcar-bontotheatmosphere.Land-usechangewasresponsi-bleforalmosthalfofthe500teragramsofcarbonemit-tedinAfricaintheperiod2000–2005.

Socioeconomic benefits

Itisdifficulttoquantifythesupplyandvalueofnon-woodforestproductsinAfricaandtheextenttowhichthey will be sought in the future. Nevertheless it isclearthatAfricanpeoplearehighlydependentonfor-est goods and services for the supply of basic needs,incomegenerationandemploymentandasabufferintimesofhardship.Africanhouseholdsareheavilyre-liantonwoodfuelforenergy.Manyruralhouseholdsandincreasingnumbersofurbancommunitiescollectandtradenon-woodforestproductsinordertomeettheirfoodandnutritionalrequirementsandotherdo-mestic needs. Often it is the poorest groups in ruraland urban communities that are most dependent onforests:fruits,seedsandbushmeatareoftencriticallyimportantasfoodsduringperiodsoffamine.Thepro-ductionandsaleofgumsandresins,medicinalplants,honeyandbeeswax,bushmeatandotherproductscon-tributeconsiderablytolocaleconomies.

Forestsarealsoamajorsourceofmedicinesintheformofleaves,roots,tubersandbark:70–80%ofAf-ricansareestimated todependonplantmedicine fortheirhealthcare.Forest-dependentcommunitiesalsoderive intangible benefits from forests through theirfunctions as cultural symbols and sacred sites and intheproductionofritualartefacts.

9

FiGUrE 1. Main cliMatE zonEs oF aFrica (dEvEloPEd BY

thE institUtE For World ForEstrY, Johann hEinrich

von thünEn-institUt, haMBUrG, GErManY 2010).

Tropical wetTropical wet and drySemiaridDesert

Subtropical dry summerHumid subtropicalHumid oceanicHighland

10

Mat

ti n

uM

MeL

in

Bru

no

Lo

cate

LLi

casi

Mir

neB

esse

casi

Mir

neB

esse

11

Given their crucial role in supporting peoples’livelihoods, forests are vital to efforts to achieve theMillennium Development Goals in Africa. Climate-inducedchangesinforestecosystems,however,couldhaveseriousconsequencesforhumanwell-being.In-dividuals, societies and institutions should be aware,therefore,of the likely impactsof climatechangeonforestsandshouldhaveadaptationstrategiesinplacetoaddressthem(Box1).

70–80% oF aFricans arE EstiMatEd to dEPEnd

on Plant MEdicinE For thEir hEalthcarE.

Box 1: Defining adaptation, vulnerability and resilience

The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange(IPCC)definesadaptationtoclimatechange as ‘adjustment in natural or humansystems in response to actual or expectedclimatic stimuli or their effects, which mod-erates harm or exploits beneficial opportuni-ties’.Adaptationcanbeautonomous,reactive,anticipatory or planned. Many adaptationstrategies focus on strengthening the abilityofasystemtoabsorbthedisturbancescausedbyclimatechangeandtocapturethebenefitsarisingfromit(strengthenedresilience),oronincreasingthedegreetowhichasystemisabletocopewithclimatechange(enhancedadap-tivecapacity, therebyreducingvulnerability).The concepts of resilience and vulnerabilityarethereforestronglyrelatedtoadaptation.

a YoUnG Man sEts a traP For ForEst GaME

Millions oF PEoPlE in thE conGo Basin dEPEnd

on ForEst BiodivErsitY as a soUrcE oF ProtEin.

althoUGh harvEst ratEs arE diFFicUlt to

dEtErMinE, MorE than 1 Million tonnEs oF

BUshMEat arE BEliEvEd to BE consUMEd as

Food EvErY YEar in thE conGo Basin.

12

FiGUrE 2. tEMPEratUrE anoMaliEs With rEsPEct to 1901

to 1950 For FoUr aFrican land rEGions For 1906 to 2005

(BlacK linE) and as siMUlatEd (rEd EnvEloPE) BY MMd

ModEls incorPoratinG KnoWn ForcinGs; and as ProJEctEd

For 2001 to 2100 BY MMd ModEls For thE a1B scEnario

(oranGE EnvEloPE). thE Bars at thE End oF thE oranGE

EnvEloPE rEPrEsEnt thE ranGE oF ProJEctEd chanGEs For

2091 to 2100 For thE B1 scEnario (BlUE), thE a1B scEnario

(oranGE) and thE a2 scEnario (rEd). thE BlacK linE is

dashEd WhErE oBsErvations arE PrEsEnt For lEss than

50% oF thE arEa in thE dEcadE concErnEd. sUBrEGions:

WEst aFrica (WaF), East aFrica (EaF), soUth aFrica (saF)

saharan aFrica (sah). cliMatE chanGE 2007: thE PhYsical

sciEncE Basis. WorKinG GroUP i contriBUtion to thE

FoUrth assEssMEnt rEPort oF thE intErGovErnMEntal

PanEl on cliMatE chanGE, FiGUrE 11.1. P.868. caMBridGE

UnivErsitY PrEss, caMBridGE, UK.

Average annual temperatures in Africa rose stead-ilyinthe20thcentury:insouthernAfricancountries,for example, the rate of warming was approximately0.7°Candthesixwarmestyearsalloccurredafter1980.Onaverage,temperatureincreasesareprojectedtobehigherinAfricathantheywillbeglobally,withwarm-ing greatest in drier, sub-tropical regions (Figure 2).Climatemodelsprojectamediantemperatureincreaseof3–4°Cacrossthecontinentbytheendofthecurrentcentury,whichwouldbeapproximately1.5timestheglobalaverageincrease.

Inthelast20yearsofthe20thcenturytherewasatrendtowardsreducedrainfall inmanysouthernAf-rican countries (where drought is often synonymouswith famine). Nevertheless, projections show signif-icant regional variation: while rainfall is projected todecreaseinsouthernandWestAfricaitisexpectedtoincrease in eastern Africa. There may also be varia-tionswithinregionsandcountries.Forexample,whilesouthernAfricamaybecomedrieroverall,somecoun-triesinthatregionmaybecomewetter.Somemodelsofclimatechangepredictrainfallchangesthatcouldin-duceamorehumidclimate in theSahel andpartsoftheSahara.

How climate change affects forests and people in Africa

Key message: Although climate-change pro-jections for Africa are highly variable, the increase in temperature on the continent is likely to be higher than the average increase globally. There is a significant risk that the adaptive capacity of many African forest eco-systems to provide vital goods and ecosystem services will be exceeded.

13

14

Observed environmental impacts and vulnerabilities

Climate change has already affected many aspects offorest ecosystems in Africa, including tree growthanddieback,thedistributionofspecies,seasonalpat-terns inecosystemprocesses,andthepopulationdy-namicsofforestspecies(Box2).Insomecases ithasbeenimplicatedintheextinctionofforestspecies.InBurkinaFaso,forexample,thelocalextinctionofsev-eralspeciesvaluedfortheirnon-woodforestproducts(e.g.Adansoniadigitata,DiospyrosmespiliformisandAnogeissusleiocarpa)hasbeenattributedtoacombi-nationofrecentrecurrentdroughtandtheunsustain-ableharvestingofthesespecies.

Theeffectsofclimatechangeonforestecosystemsareoftenindirect,suchasthroughalteredfirepatternsorchangesintheincidenceofpestsanddiseases.Ev-idenceofincreasedvulnerabilityofforeststofireasaresultoflongerdryseasonscombinedwithotherdis-turbances can be seen particularly on the northernfringeoftheCongoBasin.DuringtheElNiñoyearsof1983,1987and1997,fireswereparticularlydevas-tatinginnorthernCongoandsoutheasternCameroon.Ontheotherhand,somemodelssuggestthatclimatechange will lead to reduced fire frequency in sometropicalareas.

Interactions between climate-change-related andotherfactorsareparticularlysignificantinAfrica.For-estsandtreesoutsideforestsareunderintensepressureduetodemandforlandforagriculturalexpansion,the

productionoffuelwoodandcharcoal,andtimberasaconstructionmaterial; thecombinationofthesepres-sures has led to deforestation and forest degradationonalargescale.

Box 2: Iroko

Iroko(Miliciaspp)isatropicaltimbertreeval-uedforitsnaturaldurabilityandgoodworkingproperties and its suitability for a wide rangeofuses. Irokohasdeclined in abundance in itspresent range due to a combination of factorsincludingover-exploitation,poornaturalregen-eration,andthedamagecausedtoseedlingsandsaplingsbythegall-formingpsyllidPhytolymalata. Iroko occurs in low-altitude humid andsub-humid forests, but the discovery of irokorelicsinBurkinaFasointheSahelatsitesoffet-ishworshipandformerspecialcemeteriesindi-catesthatthespeciesgroupwasoncedistributedmore widely. Historic changes in climate mayexplainthecontractioninrangeofiroko.

15

Mic

ha

eL w

ing

fieL

d

cliMatE chanGE is assistinG FUnGi

and insEcts to invadE EUPhorBia

inGEns in soUth aFrica, lEadinG to its

WidEsPrEad dEath.

16

in soUthErn aFrica, BaoBaB

trEEs ProvidE a variEtY oF

traditional ProdUcts. thE

rEGEnEration PotEntial oF

BaoBaB is liMitEd BY Factors

not rElatEd to cliMatE, sUch

as livEstocK GrazinG, and BY

cliMatic inFlUEncEs, sUch as

thosE aFFEctinG thE incidEncE

and sEvEritY oF FirE.

Mic

ha

eL w

ing

fieL

d

17

Future environmental impacts and vulnerabilities

The IPCC has developed global emission scenarios for green-housegasesandaerosolsandcorrespondingscenariosforclimatechange. If greenhouse gas emissions decline during the courseofthecurrentcenturyandcarbondioxide(CO2)concentrationsstabilizeby2100(scenariocluster‘stable’),generallybenignbi-omechangesareprojectedformuchofsub-SaharanAfrica.If,however,emissionscontinuetogrowoverthecourseofthecur-rentcenturyatratessimilartothoseobservedinthesecondhalfofthepreviouscentury(scenariocluster‘growth’),forestdeclineandchangesinforesttypesareprojectedtooccur.

Underallscenariosinthe‘growth’scenariocluster,climatechangeisexpectedtoaffectthedistributionofforesttypesandtreespecies(Figure3).Therangesofupto40%ofecosystemsinAfricacouldchange,andmanyspeciesmayneedtomigrateiftheyaretoavoidextinctionortakeadvantageofnewconditions(Box3).Giventhestronganthropogenicpressureonforestre-sourcesinmostpartsofAfricaandtheassociatedfragmentationandreductionofforestcover,notallspecieswillbeabletodoso.

Climatechangeisprojectedtoalterfireregimes,withthein-cidenceoffirelikelytoincreaseintheSahelandsouthernAfri-caandtodecreaseintropicalAfrica.ElevatedCO2levelscanaf-fecttreegrowththroughincreasedphotosyntheticratesandim-provedwater-useefficiency.Anumberofstudieshavesuggest-edthatthis‘fertilizereffect’mayencouragethespreadofforestattheexpenseofgrasslandsbecauseitwillenabletreestorecov-erfromfiremorequicklyandtoreachfireprooflevelsmorerap-idly(Box4).SomemodelsevensuggestthatseasonaldryforestscouldbecomethedominantbiomeinsouthernAfricaandthattheSucculentKaroobiome,homeof theworld’smostdiversesucculentflora,couldbelostasaresult.

18

FiGUrE 3. ProJEctEd chanGEs in

tErrEstrial EcosYstEMs BY 2100

rElativE to 2000 For tWo scEnarios

ForcinG tWo cliMatE ModEls: (a)

‘GroWth’ scEnario clUstEr, (B)

‘staBlE’ scEnario clUstEr. chanGEs

arE considErEd aPPrEciaBlE and

arE shoWn onlY iF thEY ExcEEd 20%

oF thE arEa oF a siMUlatEd Grid

cEll. cliMatE chanGE 2007: iMPacts,

adaPtation and vUlnEraBilitY.

WorKinG GroUP ii contriBUtion to thE

FoUrth assEssMEnt rEPort oF thE

intErGovErnMEntal PanEl on cliMatE

chanGE, FiGUrE 4.3. P. 238. caMBridGE

UnivErsitY PrEss, caMBridGE, UK.

Box 4: Impact of changing fire regimes on species diversity

Climate change is projected to alter fire regimes. InsouthernAfrica,fire-maintainedecosystemshavehigherspeciesdiversitythandoecosystemswherefireisactivelysuppressed.TheCapefloralkingdom, fynbos, is abio-diversityhotspotwithover7000plantspecies,ofwhich68% are found nowhere else in the world. The fynbosoccurs inwinter rainfall areasandwouldbe threatenedbyanychange inrainfall thatalters thefireregimeandreducestheincidenceoffire.Withincreasinglevelsofat-mosphericCO2,woodyplantswillreachfireprooflevelsmorerapidly–thephenomenonofincreasingtreedensi-tyinsavannawoodlandshasbeenobservedworldwide.Ifsuchencroachmentofwoodyplantsintofire-dependentgrasslandsystemscontinues,amajorchangeingrasslandbiotacanbeexpected.

Box 3: Climate change and plant diversity in Africa

A modelling study of 5197 plant species using HadleyCentre climate projections and three distribution mod-els predicted that the areas of suitable climate for over80%ofAfricanplantspecieswoulddecreaseinsizeandshifttohigheraltitudes.Thecurrenthabitatsof25–41%ofAfricanplantspecieswouldbeentirely lostby2085.Particularly dramatic changes were modelled for theGuineo-CongoleanforestsofWestandCentralAfrica.

19

1 – Forest cover gain

2 – Shrub/woodland cover gain

3 – Herbaceous cover gain

4 – Desert amelioration

5 – Grass/tree cover loss

6 – Forest/woodland decline

7 – Forest type change

20

aLe

xan

der

Bu

cK

caPE PEninsUla national

ParK, soUth aFrica.

21

Awarmer,drier climate in southernAfricamay leadtoincreaseddamagebydestructiveagentssuchaster-mites.Concernshavealsobeenraisedabouttheeffectof a drier climate on diseases in South African euca-lyptplantations;bioclimaticmodelsindicatethatsomeSouthAfricanfungalpathogensmaymoveintoprevi-ously disease-free areas and cause significant damageto commercialplantations.Recentunprecedented in-sectplaguesinLiberiamaybeattributabletounusualclimatepatterns,andseveralotheroutbreakshavebeenlinkedtoatypicalrainfallpatterns(Box5).

Future socioeconomic impacts and vulnerabilities

ImpactmodelshavebeenusedtoassesstheeffectsofclimatechangeonvulnerablesectorsinAfricasuchaswaterresources,agriculture,health,coastalzonesandforestry. Recent studies have applied vulnerability-basedapproachesinwhichvulnerabilityisdeterminedby existing sensitivity and adaptive capacity ratherthan by the projected extent of future impacts. Suchstudies, while to date done mostly at a coarse scale,confirmthatAfricaisoneoftheworld’smostvulnera-bleregionstoclimatechangebecauseofacombinationof lowadaptivecapacityand largeprojectedclimate-changeimpacts.

Human activities may limit the potential of for-estecosystemsinAfricatoadaptnaturallytoclimatechange.Manysourcesagreethat,inabidtoavertfoodcrises,affectedpopulationswillincreasinglydependonavailablenaturalresourcesandthatthiswillleadtoanincrease in deforestation and forest degradation. The

Box 5: Insect outbreaks

A number of factors influence pest outbreaksinforests.Ingeneral theriskofanoutbreak ishigher in monocultures and forests dominatedby a few species with a narrow genetic base.AnevaluationofpastpestoutbreaksintropicalAfrica, however, indicates that in a number ofcasesthetriggerfortheeruptionofpestpopu-lations was rainfall – or lack of rainfall – dur-ing a critical stage of the development of thehost plant, the pest, or the natural enemy ofthepest.Build-ups inpopulationsof thedefo-liator of obeche (Triplochiton scleroxylon) aredependent on the availability of high-qualityfoliage,particularlyduringadryseasonthatfol-lows a good rainy season. On the other hand,outbreaksoftheorientalyellowscaleinsectonneem (Azadirachta indica) in the Lake ChadBasin (which spans Chad, Cameroon, NigerandNigeria)arelinkedtoperiodsoflowrainfallandprolongeddrought.Recentoutbreaksof apreviouslyunnoticeddefoliator–thecaterpillarAchaeacatocaloides–inCameroonandLiberiamay be due to a disruption of the balance be-tween the insect and its key natural enemiesbroughtaboutbychangesinrainfallpatterns.

22

hUMan activitiEs liMit thE PotEntial oF

ForEst EcosYstEMs in aFrica to adaPt

natUrallY to cliMatE chanGE.

Bru

no

Lo

cate

LLi

Bru

no

Lo

cate

LLi

90% oF Wood rEMovals in

aFrica arE UsEd For FUEl.

tiMBEr ProdUction coUld incrEasE

as a rEsUlt oF risinG YiElds dUE to

co2 FErtilization.

23

populationinSub-SaharanAfricaisprojectedtodou-bleby2050, increasingannualagriculturalconsump-tionbyafactorof2.0–2.8.Moreover,remainingfor-est ecosystems are likely to experience increasedde-forestationpressureduetoincreasingglobaldemandforlandforagro-industrydevelopment.

Wood and wood productsThevastmajorityofruralpopulations inAfricarelyonwoodybiomassasanenergysource:about90%of

Ma

rKo

Kat

iLa

Mat

ti n

uM

MeL

in

roundwoodremovalsinAfricaareusedaswoodfuel,andtradeincharcoalisamajorsourceofincomeformanyhouseholds.Thenumberofpeople relyingdi-rectlyontraditionalwoodenergyisprojectedtorisefrom583millionin2000to823millionin2030;unman-aged,thisdemandwillplaceseverestressesonforestresources.Projectedshiftsinvegetation,aswellassec-ondaryeffectssuchaschangesinfireandpestregimes,willaltertheavailabilityofwoodfuel,puttingfurtherpressureonlocalresourcesaswellasonhumancom-

24

munities.Anumberofregionsalreadyfacewoodfueldeficits,includingtheSudanSahel,Madagascar,urbancentressuchasYaoundé,BrazzavilleandKinshasa,andsmallmountainoussoutherncountriessuchasMalawiandSwaziland

Insomeareas,possibleclimate-changeeffectssuchasCO2fertilizationandincreasedrainfallmayimproveconditionsforsomespecies.However,themagnitudeofsuchbeneficialeffectsandtheextenttowhichtheywouldbeachievedbyspecific treespecies invaryingcircumstancesarenotclear.Thefewstudiesavailableon the impacts of climate change on timber produc-tionanditsfinancialreturnsinAfricasuggestthatbothproductionandprofitabilitycouldincreaseinplanta-tionsbecauseofrisingyieldsduetothefertilizereffect.

Non-wood forest goods and servicesGiventhedifficultiesindeterminingthecurrentsup-plyandvalueofnon-woodforestgoodsandecosys-temservicesandtheextent towhichsuchgoodsandserviceswillbesoughtinthefuture,assessingthein-fluences of climate change on them is a particularlydifficulttask.Muchmoreresearchandempiricaldataareneededontheinfluencesofclimatechangeontheproductionofnon-woodforestgoodsandservicesandthe potential vulnerabilities of forest-dependent peo-ple,andonhowsuchvulnerabilitiesmightbereduced.

Changesintheintensityandfrequencyofextremeevents,suchasdroughtsandfloods,arethetwomostimportantpathwaysthroughwhichclimatechangeinthe region may affect non-wood forest products, al-thoughsecondaryeffects,suchasincreasedevapotran-

spiration, might also be important (Box 6). Non-cli-maticfactorssuchasdeforestation,agriculturalexpan-sionandover-harvestingfurtherincreasethevulnera-bilityofnon-woodforestproductstoclimaticeffects.

One of the fastest-growing economic sectors insouthernAfricaiswildlife-basedtourism,almostcom-pletelyconcentratedinsubtropicalforestsandsavan-nas.Climatechangecouldhaveanegativeeffectonthisindustrybecauseofitsprojectedeffectsontheabun-danceoficonicwildlifespecies.Moreover,thepredict-ed increase in extreme weather conditions could re-strictrecreationopportunities,threatentourisminfra-structure,anddetertourists.

Box 6: Gum arabic

Sudansupplies80%oftheworld’sgumarabic,whichistappedfromplantedandnaturallyoc-curringtreesofthespeciesAcaciasenegalandAcaciaseyal.Thisproduct isconsideredtobeoneofSudan’smostimportantexports.Despiteprojectedincreasesinprecipitationinthegumarabic belt, increased evaporation may causemoisture stress and reduce yields. Projectionsshowa25%declineingumarabicproductionby2030anda30%declineby2060.

25

cliMatE chanGE

coUld havE

nEGativE EFFEcts

on WildliFE-

BasEd toUrisM.

Mat

ti n

uM

MeL

inPe

ter

tara

siew

icz

26

Impacts on human healthAlmostone-thirdofdiseasesinsub-SaharanAfricaareassociated with environmental factors, and concernshave been raised regarding a possible climate-drivenrise inthe incidenceofdiseasessuchasmalaria,ebo-la and nipha encephalitis. Research suggests that, insomeareas,36%of therise inmalariacasesover thelastdecadecanbeexplainedbyclimaticinfluences,al-though topography, human settlement patterns, landuseanddrugresistancearealsoimportantfactors.Anincreased incidenceofdisease inforestareas,andthereturnofsickpeoplefromcitiestotheirhomesinru-ralvillages,willputadditionalstressonforestsbecauseoftheresultantincreaseddemandforforestmedicinalplants. Other climate-driven social changes, such asconflictovernatural resources,mayalsocause socialdislocationandaddtopressureonforests.

Influences on water quality and quantityMost of the world’s countries classified as water-stressedareinAfrica.Areductioninrun-offofupto40%hasbeenrecordedinsomemajorriverbasinsinAfrica,withaconsequentreductioninreservoirstor-age. It has been predicted that projected changes inrainfallandtemperaturewillsignificantlyaffectsurfacewatersuppliesover25%ormoreofthecontinentbytheendofthiscentury.Anticipatedreductionsinwa-ter availability increase the importanceof the serviceprovided by forests in regulating and cleaning watersupplies. Human migration (both temporary or per-manent)isacommonresponsetoenvironmentalpres-sures; if drier areas are placed under further stress itis likely that largenumbersofpeoplewillmove into

Box 7: Migration of herdsmen and cattle in Ghana

InGhana, themigrationofherdsmenand theircattle from the north, where extreme weatherconditions have made cattle-raising difficult, tothe south, contributes to land degradation insouthernareasandthespreadsouthwardsofthesavannathroughanincreaseinfireandovergraz-ing.Cattlealsodamagefoodcropsasthemigrantherdsmen move their cattle through farmlands.As weather conditions become harsher, suchproblemsare likelytoworsenandtohaveseri-ousconsequencesforcommunitylivelihoods.Asimilarphenomenonhasbeenobservedinothersub-SaharanAfricancountries.

forestedregions,placingadditionalburdensonthoselandscapes(Box7).Foreffectiveadaptationtoclimatechange,explicitattentionwillneedtobepaidtoman-agingwaterconflictsandfindingmutuallyagreedwaystoequitablyshareresources.

Key message: People in Africa are highly dependent on forest goods and services and therefore are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Individuals, socie-ties and institutions should be aware of the likely impacts of climate change on forests and forest-dependent people and put strategies in place to adapt to them.

27

ern

est

foLi

in Ghana and othEr WEst aFrican coUntriEs

thE trEE sPEciEs KhaYa sEnEGalEnsis is in

dEclinE. an incrEasE in disEasE associatEd

With cliMatE chanGE is liKElY to incrEasE

PrEssUrE on this sPEciEs BEcaUsE oF thE ovEr-

harvEstinG oF its BarK, Which is UsEd as a

cUrE For sEvEral ailMEnts.

ran

dy

Mcc

racK

en

Pete

r ta

rasi

ewic

z

cliMatE chanGE Will siGniFicantlY aFFEct

sUrFacE WatEr sUPPliEs and MaY ExacErBatE

conFlicts ovEr thE UsE oF WatEr.

28

WidEsPrEad PovErtY

rEdUcEs thE adaPtivE

caPacitY oF rUral and

UrBan PoPUlations.

UnPrEcEdEntEd

FloodinG oF

aGricUltUral land in

thE northErn savanna

rEGion oF Ghana in

2009 dEMonstratEd

thE nEEd For

aPProPriatE cliMatE-

chanGE adaPtation.

Bru

no

Lo

cate

LLi

ern

est

foLi

29er

KKi o

Ksa

nen

Implications for sustainable development

Sub-SaharanAfricacontains33oftheworld’s49least-developednations,asdefinedonthebasisoflowpercapita gross domestic product (GDP), short life ex-pectancy,highinfantmortality,highratesofilliteracy,and a high dependence on the natural resource base.Limitedprogresshasbeenmadeinthosecountriesto-wardstheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.Forexam-ple,theincomeofmorethanhalfoftheAfricanpopu-lationisstilllessthanUS$1.25perday.Theproportionofpeoplesufferingfromhungerdeclinedonlyslightlybetween1990and2008, from32%to29%. In2006,more than half of all Africans were without regularaccesstosafedrinkingwaterorbasicsanitation.Thiswidespread poverty reduces the adaptive capacity ofbothruralandurbancommunities.

Climate change poses a significant threat to sus-tainabledevelopmentandtheachievementoftheMil-lennium Development Goals, especially those relat-ed to environmental sustainability and the elimina-tionofpovertyandhunger.Forinstance,theexpect-edincreaseinextremeweathereventssuchasdroughtsandfloodswillplaceadditionalstrainonlocalcommu-nitiesinmeetingtheirfoodandhealthneeds(Box8).Theprojectedimpactsonforestbiodiversityandwa-terqualityandquantitywouldposeseriouschalleng-esfortheachievementofenvironmentalsustainability.

Box 8: Vulnerability of rural communities in northern Ghana

Extreme weather conditions bring untold suf-fering to the most vulnerable people in ruralAfrica. In 2009, the unprecedented flooding oflargetractsofagriculturallandinGhana’snorth-ern savanna regionresulted ina significant lossof agricultural crops,hundredsof thousandsofheadoflivestock,andthepropertyofthousandsofneedyfarmers.Theplightofpeoplelivingintheregionwasworsenedbythepollutionofthefew sources of potable water and a consequentincreaseinwater-bornediseases.

30

Adaptation options

ThefutureofforestsinAfricamustbeconsideredinthelightofthepastinfluencesandfutureneedsofpeople.Understanding localvulnerabilities toclimatechangein their ecological and social contexts is essential forthedevelopmentandimplementationofforest-relatedclimate-changeadaptationpoliciesandprocesses.

Many studies of the potential impacts of climatechangeareavailableatglobalorcontinentalscales,buttheir coarse resolution limits their usefulness for in-formingdecisionsonclimate-changeadaptationmeas-ures at a local scale. Vulnerability-based approachesthat focusoncurrentsocial systemsandadaptiveca-pacityarepotentiallymoreeffectiveinfacilitatingad-aptation,butmorecapacityandworkisneededtoas-sesslocalvulnerabilitiesandtointegrateassessmentsatnationalscales.

Themajorityof forest-dependentpeople inAfri-caareinsufficientlyawareofclimatechangeasaglo-balandenduringphenomenonandhowitmightaffecttheirlivelihoodsinthelongterm.Thereisoftenalackofurgencybecausetheeffectsofclimatechangeareas-sumedtobegradual.

Despite generally low adaptive capacity and lim-ited awareness of climate change, some autonomousadaptation measures have been observed in variousparts of Africa, such as the identification of new in-come-producing activities (e.g. charcoal production),changedgrazingpatterns(includingtheuseofforestsfor livestock fodder), and themigrationofpeople to

Key message: Improving the adaptive capac-ity of forest-dependent communities is im-portant in order to reduce their vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Participatory approaches should be used to obtain a better understanding of local knowledge and percep-tions of climatic change and to raise aware-ness about vulnerabilities and related adapta-tion measures. Moreover, there is a need to develop and reorient educational systems and programmes.

areaswithmoresuitableclimates.Inmostcases,how-ever,theseadaptationmeasureshaveoccurredwithlit-tleornoplanningorinstitutionalsupport.

With effective stakeholder participation, vulnera-bility assessments can serve to increase awareness oftheneedforadaptationandtohelp integratepercep-tionsofvulnerabilitywithexistingknowledgeonad-aptation.Stakeholdersinvolvedinvulnerabilityassess-mentsarealsomore likely toparticipate in theplan-ning and implementation of adaptation measures. Inorder to increaseawarenessofclimatechangeand toaddressitscausesandconsequences,thedevelopmentand/orreorientationofeducationalsystemsandpro-grammes,includinginformaleducationalsystemssuchascommunityradioprogrammes,isalsoessential.

31

Sustainable forest management

ForestecosystemsinAfricafacearangeofdeforesta-tionanddegradationpressures,someofwhicharecur-rentlymorepressingthanclimatechange.Measurestoaddresssuchpressures–suchasforestrestorationandforestrehabilitation,thereductionofhabitatfragmen-tation, theestablishmentofecological corridors, andforestfireandpestmanagement–canhelptoreducethe overall vulnerability of forest ecosystems. Suchmeasures can be implemented as part of sustainableforestmanagement.

Sustainableforestmanagementprovidesaneffec-tiveframeworkforaddressingforest-relatedclimate-changeadaptationinanintegratedmanner.Itsimpor-tanceinclimate-changeadaptationhasbeenstressedatagloballevel,anditisjustasimportantinAfricanfor-estsasitiselsewhere.AlthoughforestmanagementinAfricahasbeenimprovinggradually,majorshortcom-ings in implementationarereducing theadaptiveca-pacityofforestsandtheirabilitytoprovideforest-de-pendentsocietieswithecosystemservicesinthelongterm.Thespecificelementsofforestmanagementthatneedtobeappliedwillvarydependingonlocaleco-logical,climaticandsocioeconomiccontexts.

MEasUrEs to addrEss non-cliMatic

PrEssUrEs can hElP rEdUcE thE ovErall

vUlnEraBilitY oF ForEst EcosYstEMs.

Bru

no

Lo

cate

LLi

Mat

ti n

uM

MeL

in

32

sUstainaBlE ForEst ManaGEMEnt ProvidEs an

EFFEctivE FraMEWorK For addrEssinG ForEst-

rElatEd cliMatE chanGE adaPtation in an

intEGratEd MannEr.

Bern

d-M

arK

us

Liss

33

Lessons learned from the restoration and rehabilita-tion of degraded landsLanddegradationthreatensthelivelihoodsofmillionsofpeopleinAfrica,especiallythoseinruralareas.Therestorationandrehabilitationofdegradedforestlandsoffersconsiderablepotentialforenhancingtheprovi-sionofessentialforestecosystemservicesandreducingthevulnerabilityofforeststoclimatechange.Lessonslearned from various efforts to rehabilitate degradedlandsinsub-SaharanAfricaincludetheneedforbroadcommunity consultation with all partners and stake-holders;theimportanceofsecureandwell-understoodland-tenure arrangements; the need to establish andsupport the forest management skills of communityparticipants; the need for compatibility between theobjectivesofforestrehabilitationandafforestationandcommunityneedsandconstraints;andasenseofcom-munityownershipandcontroloftheproject.

Integratedland-useapproachessuchasagroforest-ryandsilvo-pastoralsystemscanalsoplayanimpor-tantroleinimprovingtheresilienceof localcommu-nitiestoclimatechange,particularlygivenrapidruralpopulationgrowthandtheresultantaddedpressureonagricultural production and natural resources. Agro-forestryprojectshaveshowngreatpotential inmanyareas;theseprojectsneed‘scalingup’tobroader,moremainstreamadoption.

Key message: Climate change is adding to a range of other pressures – such as agricultural expansion and the over-use of forests – on forest ecosystems in Africa, some of which are currently more pressing than climate change. Measures that reduce non-climatic pressures can help reduce the overall vulnerability of forest ecosystems. Such measures, including forest restoration and rehabilitation, can be implemented in an integrated manner as part of sustainable forest management.

34

Adaptive collaborative management

Local communities in Africa have a vital interest inthe continuation of forest ecosystem services and, inmany cases, have hundreds of years’ experience inmaintainingtheirforests.Thebenefitsthatflowtolo-calcommunitiesfromthesustainablemanagementofthe resource reinforce their commitment to it. ThereareseveraldocumentedexamplesinAfricaofhowthedevelopment of custodial attitudes to forests amongcommunitieshasresultedinbetteroutcomesforboththeforestsandthepeople.

Table 1: Examples of climate-change adaptation measures recommended in West Africa.

Adapted from Kalame et al. 2009. Matching national forest policies and management

practices for climate change adaptation in Burkina Faso and Ghana. Mitigation and

Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Vol. 14(2), pp. 135-151.

Withachangingclimateandincreasingdemandsonforests,managersneed sufficientflexibility in choos-inglocallyappropriatemanagementpracticesandmustworkwithstakeholders,especiallylocalcommunities,tosystematicallyimprovethosepractices.Findingnewadaptive solutions will entail risks. Mistakes will bemade,anditiscrucialtoproperlymonitoranddocu-mentnewinitiativessothatsuccessescanbereplicatedandtherepetitionoffailurescanbeavoided.Thisisthecoreprincipleofadaptivemanagement;itwillbeevenmoreimportantwhereforestsaremanagedunderin-formallystructuredcommunityarrangements.

Topic Adaptation measures

Gene management

Reassess the location of conservation areas and seed banks; breed pest-

resistant genotypes; determine the adaptability of genotypes and their

responses to climate change

Forest protection Manage forest fire and pests to reduce disturbance; restore destroyed forest;

protect trees from disease

Forest regeneration Use drought-tolerant genotypes; use artificial regeneration; control invasive

species

Silvicultural management Selectively remove poorly adapted trees; reduce rotation periods; manage

forest density, species composition and forest structure

Non-wood resources Minimize habitat fragmentation; conserve wildlife; maintain primary forests

and the diversity of functional groups

Park and wilderness area management Conserve biodiversity; maintain connectivity between protected areas; employ

adaptive management

35

isto

cKPh

ot0

36

Policy and governance

AmajorityofAfricancountrieshaverecentlyadoptednewforestpoliciesandforest laws,andmeasuresareunder way to improve forest law enforcement andgovernance. Yet assessments of existing forest poli-ciesindicatethatfewaddresstheadaptationofforeststoclimatechange,althoughsomecontainelementsofrisk management practices relevant to forest adapta-tion.Areviewofnationaladaptationprogrammesofaction indicates that several African countries havebeenimplementingprojectsthataimtoimproveforestmanagementor increase forestarea, indicatinggrow-ingrecognitionoftheneedtoincreasetheresiliencetoclimate changeofboth forest ecosystemsand forest-dependentcommunities.

Inthelightofcurrentuncertaintiesassociatedwithclimatechange,existingtop-downgovernancesystemsandpolicydesignsarelikelytobeinsufficientlyflex-ible.Moreover,suchtraditionalregulatoryapproach-eshavehadunevensuccessinensuringthesustainabil-ityofforestresourcesduetodisparitiesinpowerandresources.Adaptationrequiresnewmodesofgovern-ancethataremoresensitivetocontext,takeabroad-erviewofcommunityneeds,andrespondmorequick-lytopolicylearning.Suchnewmodesofgovernanceshould enable meaningful stakeholder participationandprovidesecure landtenureandforest-userrightsandsufficientfinancialincentives.Inthiscontext,thevariousformsoflandtenureandownership–suchascommunityuserrights–existinginAfricamustbetak-enintoaccount.

ExperiencesintheforestsectorsofseveralAfricancountries indicate thatdecentralizationcanbeapos-itiveforceforeffectiveforestgovernancebutisham-peredbycorruption;alackofaccountabilityindeci-sion-making;a lackofcommitmentbylocalauthori-ties;alackofresourcesandexpertise;andalackofco-ordination and integration with district managementplans and operating frameworks. As a consequence,muchofthedecentralizationthathasoccurredonpa-perisnotyetfullyapplied.

Key message: The development and imple-mentation of adaptation measures as part of sustainable forest management need to be underpinned by new modes of governance that are sensitive to context, take a broad view of community needs, and respond quickly to policy learning. Governance that enables effec-tive stakeholder and community participation, transparent and accountable decision-making, secure land ownership and tenure, and the equitable sharing of benefits and responsibili-ties needs to be promoted.

37

PoliciEs For adaPtation shoUld BE dEvEloPEd

With thE EFFEctivE ParticiPation oF local

coMMUnitiEs.

Mat

ti n

uM

MeL

in

38

Traditional forest knowledge

Traditionalforestknowledgecanplayanimportantroleinadaptationtoclimatechange.Awealthoftraditionaland indigenous strategies for coping with changes inenvironmentalconditionsisavailableinAfrica.Localcommunities and indigenous peoples have developedeffectivestrategiesfor,amongotherthings,predictingrainfall, copingwithdrought,assessing theprospectsforseasonal foodproduction, stabilizingandfertiliz-ing soils, andfightingdesertification.Traditional andindigenousknowledgeandpracticescanalsoplayanimportantroleinbiodiversityconservation.Thereisaneedtoevaluate thepotentialcontribution, strengthsand limitations of these strategies for successful cli-mate-changeadaptation.Effortstoadoptsuchstrate-gies are becoming increasingly urgent because of thecontinuinglossoftraditionalforestknowledge.

Knowledge gaps

Climate-changeadaptationplanninginAfricaisham-peredbyalackofinformationaboutcurrentandfu-tureimpactsandvulnerabilities.Predictionsoftheim-pactsof climate change inAfrica are generallybasedonglobalclimatemodels.Regionalclimatemodelsareneededtoprovideinformationatfinerspatialandtem-poralscalesthatcanbeusedforregionalandlocalim-pactstudies.Adaptationplanningisalsohinderedbyalackofdataformodelling,alackoftechnicalcapacityformeteorologicalandlong-termecosystemmonitor-ing, incompleteor inconsistentdataabout forestand

forestproducts,andanover-relianceonsecondaryin-formationsources.

An underlying factor is insufficient support bygovernments for research and development. Only0.3%ofGDPiscurrentlyspentonresearch inAfri-ca.Moreresearchisurgentlyneededontheimpactsoflong-termclimatechangeonbiophysicalproductivity,disturbanceregimes,ecosystemdynamics,biodiversi-ty,andsocioeconomicvulnerabilities.

Key message: Climate-change adaptation planning in Africa is hampered by a lack of information about current and future climate-related impacts and vulnerabilities. Reliable projections of regional and local impacts require investments in research and monitoring infrastructure and increased support for early warning systems and pre-paredness measures.

39

Contribution of forests to achieving

broader adaptation goals

Adaptationstrategiesneedtoaddressthemanydriv-ersofchangethatoriginateinothersectors.Forexam-ple,deforestationanddegradationinAfricaaredrivenlargelybytheconversionofforeststofarmland,mak-ing agricultural policies a key consideration in for-estsustainability.Mostwoodremovals fromAfricanforestsareforfuel;thus,energypolicyisalsoofvitalimportance.Effectiveforestadaptationmeasuresmustconsider these non-forest drivers in national and re-gionalpolicies.

Atthesametime,forestsprovideecosystemserv-ices thatcancontributetoreducingthevulnerabilityofsocietiestoclimatechangebeyondtheforestsector.For example, research conducted in Cameroon indi-catesthattheproductionofnon-woodforestproductsislesssensitivetoclimatechangethanagriculturalac-tivitiesandlivestock-raisingandcanthereforeprovideasafetynetduringfoodshortages,anaspectthatisal-sorelevanttootherpartsofAfrica.Ecosystem-basedadaptation offers opportunities for forest-dependentpeoplebecauseitrecognizestheroleofforestsinpro-vidingecosystemservicesforsocietyandsupportstheconservationandsustainablemanagementofforests.

National and international policies should pro-moteinter-sectoralcoordinationtolinktheforestsec-torandothersectorsinadaptationpolicies.Current-ly there is little consideration of regional-scale cli-mate-changeadaptationstrategiesfortheforestsectorinsub-SaharanAfrica.Regionalprocessessuchasthe

CongoBasinForestPartnership, theAfricanForest-ryWildlifeCommissionoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,andtheAfricanForestForumcouldprovidesuitablemechanismsforknowledgeexchangeandthedevelopmentofcoopera-tiveclimate-changeadaptationstrategies.

ForestsaresuchanintegralpartoflifeforsomanyAfricanpeoplethatitisimpossibletoignoretheim-pactsof climatechangeon them.Despite the limita-tionsofcurrentknowledgeinAfrica,climatechangeisprogressingtooquicklytopostponeadaptationmeas-urespendingtheoutcomesoffuturestudies.

Key message: Forests can play an impor-tant role in achieving broader climate-change adaptation goals but may be threatened by impacts from other sectors. Strategies for adapting forests to climate change should be coordinated with those of other sectors and integrated into national and regional development pro-grammes and strategies.

Donors