Fishmeal and fish oil: A summary of global trends Washington 2017_1.pdf · Fish oil world...

Dr Enrico Bachis, 57th IFFO Annual Conference (Washington)

Fishmeal and fish oil:A summary of global trends


Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far

Expectations for 2017

Consumption trends

Conclusions


Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far


Consumptions trends

Conclusions


The reason why we focus on the so-called IFFO countries is that, historically, they have provided roughly 45% of the world fishmeal production, and 55% fish oil output.Although this is not a physics law, we can use it as a rule of thumb to get a feeling of what might happen in the rest of the world.

In 2016 both meal and oil were at their lowest level ever reports in this group of countries.

Year 2016: Total IFFO countries

DK = DenmarkNO = NorwayICE = IcelandNA = North Atlantic (UK, EIRE, Faroe Islands)USA = Menhaden and Alaskan fisheries SA = South Africa

2,985

2,067 2,1441,713

2,1261,674

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total fishmeal (000 mt)

Peru Chile DK/NO ICE/NA USA SA

738

563 548 513 479 464

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total fish oil (000 mt)


*Scandinavia: Denmark, Norway, Iceland

Year 2016: World

4,755.9 4,993.54,573.6 4,754.6 4,538.8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Fishmeal world production ('000 mt)

Peru Scandinavia* China,PR Thailand Chile Vietnam U.S.A Japan Others

972.9 948.5 957.0 911.6 904.9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Fish oil world production ('000 mt)

Scandinavia* Chile Peru U.S.A China,PR Other

The year 2016 ended with a further reduction in the global output of fishmeal and fish oil.

The 2016 fishmeal production was the lowest ever recorded.With a few exceptions, in fact, fishmeal productions decreased almost every where.

Reduced supply of raw material and lower yields around the world have caused a further decline in the global fish oil supply, just short the 900,000 mt threshold.

However this was not enough to make it the worst ever annual output. In 1998 fish oil output was in fact at around 840,000 mt.

Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far


Consumptions trends

Conclusions


In Peru the El Niño environmental conditions (initially felt 3 years ago) have started to fade away at the end of 2016 leaving ground to cooler waters along the Peruvian coastline and less dispersed anchovy stocks. Consequently, the government was able to determine the presence of a healthy biomass and grant “normal” quotas in the North-centre: 2 million mt for the period November 2017-January 2017, and 2.8 million mt for April-July 2017.In addition 185,000 mtof anchovy have been landed in the South.

I - III quarter 2017: Peru

3,2422,610

2,2512,855

1,354

3,168

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Raw material I-III quarters (000 mt)

average 2012-2016

In line with the increased landings, fishmeal production in the first 3 quarters of 2017 is at its highest level since 2012.

Fish oil production has also rebounded with respect to previous years, but given the average yield of 3.2% supply has remained below its potential

I - III quarter 2017: Peru

756

616525

660

315

734

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal I-III quarters (000 mt)

average 2010-2014

181

116 115

8252

103

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil I-III quarters (000 mt)

average 2010-2014

The year 2017 started more or less with the same quotas granted in 2016 but with the expectation of being able to land much more than in 2016.

Such expectations have been met so far with total available raw material higher than in 2016 and 2015.

To be precise the increase has come mainly through the pelagic catches as salmon trimmings have remained at the same level as during the same period in 2016, and slightly down with respect to the first 3 quarters in 2015.

I - III quarter 2017: Chile

1,730,162

1,066,516

1,472,7591,235,571

880,760

1,292,111

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Raw material I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

Both fishmeal and fish oil productions were thus well above the average of the previous years, with the oil trend also influenced by yields that have remained pretty low throughout 2017

I - III quarter 2017: Chile

345,917

205,625

295,871249,046

183,335

257,433

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

103,937

73,102

117,272

81,384

58,229

82,389

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

In terms of pelagic catch, a higher raw material tonnage was expected this year given the increased quotas granted in Europe for the year 2017 with respect to 2016. Almost 600,000 mt more were made available, year on year, in the Denmark, Norway and Iceland

I - III quarter 2017: Europe main quotas

844,200

1,606,000

715,028

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Denmark Norway Iceland

60%

90%

60%

Faeroe Islands UK/EIRE 2017 quotas 665,000 mt 800,000 mt (pelagic)+200,000 mt (salmon)

The DK/NO area has reported so far the highest available raw material coming from pelagic catches since 2006.

The Norwegian data also include salmon trimmings, which also increased on the back of a slightly higher output at the Norwegian salmon farms.

I - III quarter 2017: Denmark and Norway

664,109 910,294

1,210,5431,473,068

1,224,923

1,678,049

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

Fishmeal production in the first 3 quarters of the year has been the highest since 2006, well above the average for the last 5 years.

Fish oil production has also rebounded dramatically, reporting the highest production since 2003. However, we cannot ignore the fact that nowadays we are also including salmon oil, something that we didn’t have back then.

I - III quarter 2017: Denmark and Norway

140,899192,287

258,398

316,157260,050

332,068

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

50,803

60,352

83,31384,259 84,043

85,917

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

I-III quarter 2017: Iceland, UK and Ireland, Faroe Islands

The higher quotas in the Iceland/North Atlantic Iceland are also reflected in the much increased available raw material in the first 9 months the year, both in Iceland (+50% year on year) and the Faeroe Islands (+90% year on year).

The UK on the contrary has shown similar levels as in the first 3 quarters of 2016.

In addition, in the UK some raw material also came from salmon trimmings.

897,208 867,680736,631

1,034,440

683,769

975,918

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

Both fishmeal and fish oil productions have been below the 2015 level.However, while fishmeal output has been in line with the last 5 years average, fish oil production has been well below its historical records. Overall lower-than-average yields in both Iceland and the Faroe Islands are to be blamed.Indeed in 2016 Iceland reported average fish oil yields of 3%, against 5% in 2015 and an average of 4% between 2011 and 2015.As for the Faroe Islands, in the 3 quarters of 2015 and 2016 yields have been at around 5%, but in previous years the average has been at around 9%.

169,653 176,182 152,715

204,832

142,377

197,499

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

67,11168,399

40,498

55,802

36,33143,975

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

I-III quarter 2017: Iceland, UK and Ireland, Faroe Islands

In the US overall raw material tonnage in the first 3 quarters has been slightly down. Higher Pollock and Hake quotas in Alaska (+20% and +1% respectively) have been in fact partially offset by a reduction in Gulf menhaden catches.

South Africa’s raw material has also been below the levels reported in the first 3 quarters of 2016, mainly due to a decrease in the anchovy catches (-17%). Pilchards landings have been stable year-on-year, while other species by-catch (i.e.,red eye, mackerel and maasbanker ) have also been at lower levels than in 2016.

I-III quarters 2017: USA and South Africa

949,457 810,142801,681

962,791968,582 929,559

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA raw material I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

431,336

162,546

327,193 296,060349,514

280,222

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA raw material I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

The US figures point out to a low level of production not seen since 2013/2014.

As for South Africa the production so far has been in line with the average of the previous 5 years but below the levels reports in January-September 2016.

232,167197,590

195,033

235,788

222,669197,511

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA fishmeal I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

91,492

29,157

67,710 61,380

76,27362,670

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA fishmeal I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016


Low levels of fish oil production is being reported so far in the USA, essentially due to lower-than-expected yields in the menhaden fisheries, at an average of 7.5%.

Alaskan Pollock yields in the so called season A (January-April) were also lower-than-expected, while yields in season B (June-October) have been good at around 10% The overall outcome was a stable supply of fish oil.

Lower year-on-year yields in South Africa (2.0% vs 2.5%) are also part of the fish oil production drop.

55,633

88,790

71,247 72,89589,975

66,245

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA fish oil I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016

6,039

1,312

5,751 6,319 6,358 5,926

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA fish oil I-III quarters (mt)

average 2012-2016


The first 3 quarters of 2017 are showing a strong rebound of +48% in terms of fishmeal, driven first of all by Peru’s improved landings, but also by higher catches in Chile and Europe.

Given the low yields across the board the same cannot be sais for fish oil supply, which is better than in 2015 and 2016, but still below previous years.

I-III quarters 2017: Total IFFO countries

1,736

1,417 1,4941,727

1,200

1,781

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total fishmeal I-III quarters (000 mt)


465408 433

383327

382

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total fish oil I-III quarters (000 mt)


III quarter 2017: stocks

Total pelagic fishmeal at the end of September 2017 was at around 275,000 mt, versus 315,000 mt in September 2016.

Total pelagic fish oil at the end of September 2017 was at around 143,000 mt, vs 145,000 mt in September 2016.

67,50061,500 60,000 57,000

11,0005,400 5,000

00

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

USA DK/NO ICE/NA Chile India SA Morocco Peru

Pelagic fishmeal physical stocks (mt)

2016 2017

69,650

31,50026,500

10,0003,000 2,000 200 0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

USA DK/NO ICE/NA Chile India Peru SA Morocco

Pelagic fish oil physical stocks (mt)

2016 2017

Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far


Consumption trends

Conclusions


According to the Peruvian Institute for Marine Studies (Imarpe), the sustainability of the anchovy biomass in the North-Centre of Peru is compatible with an annual catch of around 5 million mt.Based on this general principle the quota for the second fishing season in this area of the country could be anything between 2.2 million mt downwards. The industry however is united around an expectation of a quota of 2 million mt.

IV quarter 2017: Peru

2,070,000

2,500,000

810,000

2,304,000

0

1,100,000

2,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Quotas for second fishing season in the North/Centre


371

2,098

0

854

1,347 1,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Raw material IV quarter (000 mt)

average 2012-2016

A quota of 2 million in the North-Centre of the country would probably provide by the end of the year 1.5 million mt of raw material for reduction.

This would entirely come from the North-Centre area as the South is not expected to provide any raw material for the rest of the year.

Fishmeal production in the last quarter should be well above the average of the previous 5 years, and inferior only to the one reported in 2013, when the granted quota was of 2.304 million mt, and the starting date on 12th November.

As usual estimating fish oil production is difficult, as it will be heavily impacted by the actual yields, We are assuming here a yield of 3.5% in QIV 2017, slightly up with respect to the 3.2% reported in April-July.


86

499

0

199

318349

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal IV quarter (000 mt)

average 2010-2014

14

62

0

17

6253

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil IV quarter (000 mt)

average 2010-2014

45% of the northern quotas remain to caught in the IV quarter. The expectation is that they won’t be fully landed before the end of the year.

On the contrary only around 15% of the southern quotas are still to be landed.

Salmon trimmings might add another 90,000/100,000 mt

IV quarter 2017: Chile

North South Total quota 875,000 mt 652,000 mtLeft quota 400,000 mt 100,000 mt

675,303578,324

494,700376,962

273,591

420,102

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Raw material IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

Fishmeal production in Q4 is expected to bounce back year on year, but it will be still below the 5-years average.

Fish oil output on the other hand is expected to still suffer from low yields, especially in the North where they should be at no more than 1%.

IV quarter 2017: Chile

137,091

114,479101,845

73,004

51,065

85,107

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

36,67030,198

27,178 25,636

22,791 21,694

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

The Danish fishing efforts in Q4 will be directed towards sprat (35% of the quota remains at sea) and probably sand eel (25% of the quota still to be landed). The 95% Norway pout quota still available won’t be caught.

In Norway spring spawning herrings and North Sea herrings (for which around 65% and 35% of the quotas remain at sea, respectively) and mackerel are traditionally the main fisheries of Q4. The mackerel quota is almost entirely untouched, as so is the Norway pout one, with just 7% of it landed so far.

IV quarter 2017: Denmark and Norway

Total quotas: 845,000 mtLeft quota: 40%

Total quotas: 1,606,000 mtLeft quota: 40%

Denmark Norway

217,460203,617

238,036

265,959

229,468

266,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

Accordingly, fishmeal production in Q4 2017 is expected to be in line with the output reported in Q4 2016.

Similarly, fish oil production in the last quarter is expected to be in line with production in Q4, slightly above the average of the previous 5-years.

IV quarter 2017: Denmark and Norway

47,419 44,23451,731

57,47848,639 51,355

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

24,464

18,479

26,11126,472 25,630 26,550

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

In Q4 2017 the Iceland/North Atlantic area is expecting roughly the same amount of raw material reported in Q4 2016.No changes are expected in the Faroe Islands, nor in Iceland nor in the UK/Eire.

IV quarter 2017: Iceland, UK and Ireland, Faroe Islands

Total quotas: 715,000 mtLeft quota: 10%

Iceland

181,415

132,109

158,595

190,143164,477

156,750

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

Accordingly, fishmeal production is expected to be in line with the output of Q4 2016.

On the contrary, fish oil output is expected to be at record lows.

In particular in Iceland yields are thought to drop from over 7%% in Q4 2016 to less than 6% in Q4 2017.

IV quarter 2017: Iceland, UK and Ireland, Faroe Islands

29,711 29,470

34,412

39,835

34,80932,818

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

14,92613,820

17,06215,881 16,147

12,470

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


average 2012-2016

In the US the available raw material should be more or less in line with that reported in Q4 2016, although below the last 5-years average.The minor differences might simply be due to the way the raw material is processed at sea in Alaska.

South Africa on the other hand should see an important tonnage increase with respect to Q4 2016.

IV quarter 2017: USA and South Africa

136,620

187,985

143,035 139,752

117,025 106,988

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA raw material IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

14,150 11,235

10,575

11,038

8,065

24,085

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA saw material IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

Fishmeal production in the US is thus expected to be in line or slightly less than in Q4 2016, while fish oil should be badly affected by the reduced yield in the menhaden fishery.

In South Africa, on the contrary, a great rebound in both meal and oil is expected.

IV quarter 2017: USA and South Africa

27,324

37,597

28,607 27,95029,256

23,775

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA fishmeal IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

3,381

2,194 2,301 2,1441,882

4,931

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA fishmeal IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

7,567

15,621

9,507 10,093 10,909

7,688

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA fish oil IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

174 130

225195

78

519

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA fish oil IV quarter (mt)

average 2012-2016

Depending on the actual quota and catch in Peru we might end up with the same total fishmeal production in Q4 2016 than in Q4 2015.

On the other hand, at the moment, given the assumed raw material quantity and the fish oil yields, we are expecting a decrease year on year.

IV quarter 2017: Total IFFO countries

331

727

219

399483

547

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total fishmeal IV quarters (000 mt)


98

141

8096

138121

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total fish oil IV quarters (000 mt)


Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far


Consumptions trends

Conclusions


Fishmeal production in year 2017 is expected to be over 1 million mt, something that we have not seen since 2013.

As for fish oil, the output should be over 150,000 mt, but with better-than expected yields we might actually see a production close to 200,000 mt.

Year 2017: Peru

842

1,115

525

858

633

1,082

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal (000 mt)

196178

115 100 114

156

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil (000 mt)

Both fishmeal and fish oil production in 2017 are expected to rebound, probably outpacing the outputs seen in 2016 and 2015.

Year 2017: Chile

483

320398

322

225

344

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal (000 mt)

141

103

144

107

81108

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil (000 mt)

On the back of the higher quotas granted for the year 2017 total production in Denmark and Norway is expected to rebound dramatically, potentially reporting the best performance since the year 2004.

Fish oil output on the other hand should be in line with that of recent years at around 110,000 mt.Considering that nowadays we also include salmon-derived oil, it is easy to see that pelagic oil is expected to be actually slightly up compared to previous years.

Year 2017: Denmark and Norway

188

237310

374

309

383

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal (000 mt)

7579

109 111 110 112

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil (000 mt)

In the same way, the Icelandic/North Atlantic area’s annual output will rebound with respect to the previous year, although probably not as much as to reach the record levels of 2015 total tonnage.

Fish oil output, on the other hand, is not expected to be much higher than in 2016 due to the low yields in Iceland (5.4% vs 6.5%).

Year 2017: Iceland, UK and Ireland, Faroe Islands

199 206 187

245

177

234

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fishmeal (000 mt)

82 82

58

72

52 56

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fish oil (000 mt)

In terms of overall fishmeal production the US seems to be on course of reporting a small decrease, leading to a total output similar to the one recorded in 2014.

The real news is that the year 2017 might produce the lowest tonnage of fish oil since 2012. In any case the overall fish oil production is expected to be lower than in 2016 due to the average oil yields in the menhaden fisheries of around 7.5%, against a potential of 13%/14%.

Year 2017: USA

259235 224

264 252221

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA fishmeal (000 mt)

63

104

81 83

101

74

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USA fish oil (000 mt)

Fishmeal production in South Africa is expected to slow down with respect to 2016, because of much-reduced catches of anchovy, red eye and mackerel, along with stable pilchards landings.

As for fish oil, yields are not expected to improve from last year, so production should be in line with the previous year at 6,000 mt, or slightly less.

Year 2017: South Africa

95

31

70 6478

68

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA fishmeal (000 mt)

6

1

6 7 6 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SA fish oil (000 mt)

41

Year 2017: Rest of the World

42

Year 2017: Americas and Oceania

Fishmeal production (000mt)

Country 2016 2017

Peru 633 1,079

U.S.A 252 224

Chile 234 344

Ecuador 135 120

Mexico 73 92

Brazil 55 58

New Zealand 35 38

Canada 34 35

Argentina 23 21

Others 63 57

Total 1,536 2,068

Fish oil production (000mt)

Country 2016 2017

Chile 81 108

Peru 114 155

U.S.A 101 71

Ecuador 16 17

Others 57 61

Total 368 412

43

Year 2017: Europe and AfricaFishmeal production (000 mt)

Country 2016 2017

Denmark 166 215

Norway 143 169

Morocco 106 84

Iceland 91 110

S.Africa,Rep 78 69

Spain 55 50

Mauritania 51 62

Faeroe Islds 44 71

U.K 30 34

Poland 24 24

Germany 23 21

Angola 17 21

Ireland 15 18

France 15 15

Mauritius 15 13

Lithuania 14 12

Senegal 11 9

Latvia 11 9

Namibia 8 6

Others 47 46

Total 964 1,058

Fish oil production (000 mt)

Country 2016 2017

Norway 61 56

Denmark 48 56

Iceland 28 30

Morocco 22 20

Germany 16 14

Mauritania 16 13

Spain 13 10

U.K 12 12

Angola 8 9

Faeroe Islds 7 11

S.Africa,Rep 6 7

Others 27 24

Total 265 262

44

Year 2017: EurasiaFishmeal production (000 mt)

Country 2016 2017

China,PR 460 450

Thailand 386 270

Vietnam 288 260

Japan 177 175

India 153 171

Russia 95 99

Malaysia 86 80

Myanmar 85 80

Pakistan 67 74

Indonesia 50 65

Iran 36 36

Korea,South 31 32

Georgia 26 14

Turkey 18 20

Oman 9 13

Others 70 67

Total 2,038 1,906

Fish oil production (000 mt)

Country 2016 2017

China,PR 65 65

Japan 62 63

Vietnam 49 68

India 27 26

Thailand 12 10

Georgia 11 7

Others 45 46

Total 272 284

Year 2017: World

4,993.54,573.6 4,754.6 4,538.8

5,032.1

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Peru Scandinavia* Thailand China,PR Vietnam U.S.A Chile Japan Others


Year 2017: World

948.5 957.0 911.6 904.9 958.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


U.S.A Scandinavia* Chile China,PR Peru Other


Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far


Consumption trends

Conclusions


Year 2018: Peru

Institutional environment

Natural environment

Pro-business government

A rule of thumb of the Instituto del Mar del Perú- Imarpe suggests that5 million mt is the annual total allowable catch for the North-Centre of Peru.

North Centre region quotas:3+2?

Year 2018: Peru

North Centre region quotas South region quotas

First season (April-June). First season (January-June).

Second season (November-January). Second season (July-December).

3 million metric tonnes 500,000 metric tonnes

2 million metric tonnes 500,000 metric tonnes

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

600,000 actual mt

3,000,000 actual mt

100,000 actual mt

1,500,000 actual mt

4,708

2,251

3,7102,701

4,6685,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Raw material (000 mt)

Year 2018: Peru

1,115

525

858

633

1,082 1,209

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fishmeal (000 mt)

178

115100

114

156

208

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fish oil (000 mt)

With more than 1,2 million mt of fishmeal output the year 2018 would be the best performing year since 2011.

As usual fish oil projections imply 2 sets of assumptions: one on the raw material available; one on the fish oil yields. In this case we are assuming an improvement of yields up to 4%.

Year 2018: Chile

320

398

322

225

344 346

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fishmeal (000 mt)

103

144

107

81

108100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fish oil (000 mt)

Almost no change is expected for the year 2018 with respect to 2017 at this moment. This is also influenced by the fact that the new quotas are not known yet.

If any change in 2018 is expected that seems to be slightly lower fish oil yields.

Year 2018: Denmark and Norway

237

310374

309

383341

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fishmeal (000 mt)

79

109 111 110 112106

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fish oil (000 mt)

On the back of the The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)‘s recommendations, Denmark and Norway expect a decrease in the overall quotas and thus a reduction in their fishmeal and fish oil output in 2018.

Total fishmeal:-11% YoY

Total fish oil:-5% YoY

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)‘s recommendations are also less positive than in 2017 for the Iceland/North Atlantic area.An overall reduction is thus expected for both fishmeal and fish oil.

Year 2018: Iceland, UK and Ireland, Faroe Islands

206187

245

177

234

182

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fishmeal (000 mt)

82

5872

52 56

40

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fish oil (000 mt)

Total fishmeal:-22%

Total fish oil:-28%

Year 2018: USA

The white fishmeal and fish oil output is expected to be the same as in 2017.

The increased output in both meal and oil should be driven mainly by a recovery in the menhaden fisheries catch, and in its oil yields.

235 224

264 252221 232

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USA fishmeal (000 mt)

10481 83

101

74

91

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USA fish oil (000 mt)

Total fishmeal:+5% YoY

Total fish oil:+23% YoY

Year 2018: South Africa

Total fishmeal:+14% YoY

Total fish oil:+48% YoY

31.4

70.063.5

78.2

67.6

78.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SA fishmeal (000 mt)

1.4

6.06.5 6.4 6.4

9.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SA fish oil (000 mt)

The evidence gathered so far points towards more favourable fishing conditions in 2018.

In particular there is an expectation for a substantial increase in fish oil output. This come from the fact that more Lanterfish is expected to be landed, a species that can have a fish oil yield of 10%, much higher than the 2% usually extracted from anchovies.


2,1441,713

2,1261,674

2,332 2,390

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total fish meal (000 mt)

Peru Chile DK/NO ICE/NO USA SA

548 513 479 464513

555

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total fish oil (000 mt)

Peru Chile DK/NO ICE/NO USA SA


4,573.6 4,754.6 4,538.85,032.1 5,130.9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Peru Scandinavia* China,PR Thailand Chile Vietnam U.S.A Japan Others


957.0 911.6 904.9 958.01,047.4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Peru Scandinavia* Chile U.S.A China,PR Other

Summary

Year 2016

2017 so far


Consumption trends

Conclusions


Consumption trends

69%

5%

23%

3%

Use of Fishmeal by Market in 2016

Aquaculture Chicken Pig OtherThe main changes are related to a 1% drop within the aqua and poultry sectors, accompanied by a 1% increase by the pig sector and the other category. Within this the role of pet food is the most

Back in 2016 30% was consumed by the pig sector, 14% by the poultry industry and only 64% by the aqua farmers.

Consumption trends

75%

18%

7%

Use of Fish oil by Market in 2016

Aquaculture Direct Human Consumption OtherThe aquaculture sector continues to be the main consumer of fish oil, taking now an estimated 75% of the total fish oil consumed worldwide.

This has clearly been possible by a reduction in the market share of the pharmaceuticals, which moved from 21% to 18%.

However, back in 2016 86% of the fish oil was consumed in aquaculture and just 8% for direct human consumption.

The year 2017 could be the best performing year since the arrival of these prolonged El Niño conditions in 2012.

The increased quotas in Peru and Europe in addition with the improved catches in Chile are the driving forces behind such potential recovery. 5 million mt of global production are a possibility in 2017.

The year 2018 looks promising with the full recovery of Peru, but other areas such as Europe and Asia might face an overall reduction.

Meanwhile consumption of fishmeal by the pet food sector is starting to gaining market shares at the expenses of traditional sectors such as poultry and aquaculture.

Aquaculture continues to be the main consumer of both fishmeal and fish oil, although with different dynamics.

However, the recovery is expected less dramatic in terms of fish oil output due to low yields across the board. Total output is likely to be below 1 million mt again.

Conclusions


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Fishmeal and fish oil: A summary of global trends Washington 2017_1.pdf · Fish oil world...

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