FISHERIES

Current crisis of pricesACFA WG 3

Trade and market 5/05/2010

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Current crisis of prices

1. Factors having an influence on price

2. Price trends in the EU• 1st sale level• Import level• Retail level

3. Analysis of the present situation

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1. Factors having an influence on price

International supply• Variable according to the different commodities (groundfish,

pelagics, salmon etc…)• Globally abundant in 2009 but less abundant in 2010 with some

tensions on salmon, cephalopods, shrimps and tuna

EU supply• Abundant supply of most groundfish species (cod, hake, haddock) in

2009 and 2010 (but not for saithe)• Lack of « high value » species such as monk, sole, red mullet or

nephrops in 2010

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1. Factors having an influence on price

Currency exchange rates

EUR / USD

end 08

2nd half 09

1st half 10

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1. Factors having an influence on price

Fuel price• Production costs for fishing

activity• Transport costs

Feed price (aquaculture)• Fish meal and fish oil• Decrease from 2006 to 2008

and sharp increase as from 2009

Economic situation• Household’s demand

Brent price per barrel in Euro and $

0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00

100.00120.00140.00

Bre

nt

pri

ce

pe

r b

arr

el

(€ a

nd

$)

$/barrel €/barrel

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2. Price trends in the EU

Price trends at first sale• FIDES data base : average EU prices (data from MS) for species Annex I• 1st sale price monitoring in representative market places (data from

auctions)

Price trends at import level• Eurostat Comext : 8 species representing 60% of the value of EU imports

from extra EU

Price trends at retail level• France, UK and Spain : representative species – fresh counter in

supermarkets

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Evolution of EU prices at 1st sale level

Average 1st sem EU price for fresh fish (FIDES)

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

€/kg

Hake

Cod

Haddock

Saithe

source Member States

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Evolution of EU prices at 1st sale level

Average 1st sem EU price for fresh fish (FIDES)

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

€/kg

Cuttlefish

Plaice

Sardine

Mackerel

source Member States

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Recent evolution of EU prices at 1st sale

North Sea and NWW Region (IIIa, IV, V, VI et VII)

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

Co

d (

€)

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

Sai

the

(€)

Cod - DK Cod - NL Cod - BE Saithe - FR Saithe - DK

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Recent evolution of EU prices at 1st sale

Atlantic (SWW) Region VIII, IX and X)

1,00

3,00

5,00

7,00

9,00

11,00

13,00

15,00

17,00

An

gle

rfis

h,

Co

d &

Ha

ke

Pri

ce

s (

€)

Sole - FR Anglerfish - ES Hake - SP Cod - FR

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Evolution of import prices from extra EU

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

févr

-07

avr-0

7

juin-

07

août

-07

oct-0

7

déc-

07

févr

-08

avr-0

8

juin-

08

août

-08

oct-0

8

déc-

08

févr

-09

avr-0

9

juin-

09

août

-09

oct-0

9

déc-

09

févr

-10

Cod

Hake

Alaskan pollack

Pangasius

source Eurostat

€/KG

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Evolution of import prices from extra EU

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

févr

-07

avr-0

7

juin-

07

août

-07

oct-0

7

déc-

07

févr

-08

avr-0

8

juin-

08

août

-08

oct-0

8

déc-

08

févr

-09

avr-0

9

juin-

09

août

-09

oct-0

9

déc-

09

févr

-10

Tropical shrimp

Salmon

Canned Tuna

Squid

source Eurostat

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Price trends at retail levelSpanish Retail Prices

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00

20,00

Eu

ro

Hake 2.5 kg Megrim Albacore Clam Seabream

Anchovy Horse Mackerel Sardines Mussels

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Price trends at retail levelRetail Prices in France (Most Important in Value)

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

Eu

ro

Scallops Sole Anglerfish Cod Salmon Oysters Mussels

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Price trends at retail levelUK Retail Prices (Selected Fish Species)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Eu

ro

Haddock Plaice Pangasius Cod Salmon

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Analysis of the situation in 2009

- Abundant international supply of whitefish• cod and haddock from Norway, Iceland and USA• pangasius from Vietnam

- Economic downturn especially in southern Europe• slow demand, less consumer’s willingness to pay any premium

- High value of the euro versus dollar- Low fuel prices

Low prices in 2009 both at 1st sale, import and retail levels

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Analysis of the situation in 2010

- Supply is less abundant in 2010 (salmon, shrimp, tuna, cephalopods) - Fuel price is on the rise,- Fishmeal is scarce and expensive,- EU economy is recovering in the north (but still weak in the south)- Euro is weakening,

Fish price should go upward… ….for species and products which correspond to consumer’s demand

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Thank you for your attention