Fish and Climate Change

Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis

Lauren WymanEnvironmental Defense FundDr. Stacy Small

What Is......the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)?

A way to understand how climate change may impact species using life history traits and GIS data

So, what is climate change vulnerability analysis?

It is a way to understand how climate change may impact species. MAY is the operative term here because we do not know exactly how climate change will unfold over the course of the next hundred or so years. So factoring in uncertainty is a must.

So, how were the fish placed into each category? I thought that it would be a good idea to go through an example rather than trying to explain it myself.

But First...

We Need To Understand How Climate Change May Shape the Midwest’s Climate in the

Coming Years:

Warmer water temperaturesMore summer droughts

More spring floodingMurkier water

So, how will fish fare in response to these changes?

Let’s take an example.

LAKE STURGEON

-Dispersal ability-Thermal Niche-Hydrological Niche-Tolerance to turbidity-Dependence on geological features-Dietary versatility-Genetic variation

-How will hydrology change?-How will thermal habitats change?

Moderately vulnerable

Evaluation Criteria:

Dispersal AbilityThermal Niche

Hydrological NicheTolerance to

TurbidityDietary Versatility

Barriers:Dams in rangeDispersal:

Long distance migrantThermal Niche:

Cool waterTurbidity Tolerance:

Need Clear Water

Final Results

Patterns• EV: species specialists. Cold water

fish, spawn in shallow water, intolerant to turbidity

• HV: cool/cold water fish, spawn in shallow habitats

• MV: cool water fish, spawn in shallow habitats, better dispersal

• PS: tolerant to turbidity and warm water

• IL: species generalists. Thrive in turbidity, thrive in warm water, great dispersal. Many invasive species

Importance

• Climate change vulnerability analyses allows us to target species that may have difficulty in the coming years and do something about them before it’s too late.

• I attended a conference on CCVI and Leon Hizer, of the Illinois Natural History Survey, asked me for my results to include in the State Wildlife Action Plan. So my results will basically be shaping the state of conservation in Illinois.

To conserve an ecosystem we must first know what to

conserve

Special Thanks To...

Dr. Stacy Small-Lorenz

Lorin Romeo-Romay

Stacey Christiansen

PEI Team

The Environmental Defense Fund. All of it.