Fiscal Package Autumn 2013 - ansa.it · Existing EDP Report Deficit > 3% Breached criteria/ target...
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Fiscal Package Autumn 2013 Assessment of the Draft Budgetary Plans Olli REHN, Vice President for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro Press Conference, 15 November 2013
Transcript of Fiscal Package Autumn 2013 - ansa.it · Existing EDP Report Deficit > 3% Breached criteria/ target...
Fiscal Package Autumn 2013
Assessment of the Draft Budgetary Plans
Olli REHN, Vice President
for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro Press Conference, 15 November 2013
2
European growth map 2014
Source: Commission services
3
Public finances
General government debt General government budget balance, European Union
Source: Commission services
4
Autumn forecast
Winter forecast
Spring forecast
15 October
In-Depth Reviews
May/June
November
Euro Area Member States: draft budgetary plans
Commission's opinions on draft budgetary plans
Annual Growth Survey
15 April
Stability/Convergence Programmes National Reform Programmes
Country-Specific Recommendations
Alert Mechanism Report
European Surveillance Cycle
5
AT SK FR
MT
NL
SI
BE
ES
LU FI
IT DE
CY
EE
IE PT GR
PL UK CZ DK
HR BG
LV
HU
SE LT
RO
DBP
EPP
ASSESSMENT
OF EFFECTIVE
ACTION
Programme
countries
(not covered)
Countries in
Excessive deficit
procedure
(EDP)
Countries
not in EDP
EURO AREA NON EURO AREA
REPORT
ON DEFICIT
OR DEBT
CRITERION
Draft Budgetary Plans
• Compliant
• Compliant with no margin
• Broadly compliant
• Risk of non-compliance
• Serious non-compliance
Source: Commission services
Estonia and Germany
• Draft Budgetary Plan: compliant
• Medium term objective respected
• Debt rules respected
Source: Commission services
Italy and Finland
• Draft Budgetary Plans: risk of non-compliance
• Need more progress towards MTOs
• Debt:
• Italy: risk of insufficient progress in 2014
• Finland: breaching 60% due to low growth and special factors
Source: Commission services
In Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP): Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Slovenia
Memo: Corrected for bank recapitalization
Belgium
• Broadly compliant
• Likely to correct excessive deficit in 2013
• But needs stronger progress towards MTO
France, the Netherlands and Slovenia
• Compliant with no margin
• Fiscal effort likely ok
Source: Commission services
In Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) Spain and Malta
*Corrected for bank recapitalization
• Risk of non-compliance
Spain
• Deficit targets: ok in 2013-14, but measures needed for 2015
• Fiscal effort: ok in 2013, at risk in 2014
Malta
• Fiscal effort is not met
• Timely correction of the deficit is at risk
Source: Commission services
EDP steps
Country EDP step Finding Next step
Possible new EDPs
Croatia Debt > 60% Criteria not metPossible opening
of EDP
Lithuania Deficit criterion met-
Existing EDP
ReportDeficit >
3%
Breached criteria/
target
Report No effective actionNew
recommendationsFiscal effort below
recommended
Poland
Headline target not met,
Euro area fiscal map based on draft budgetary plans 2014
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Source: Commission services
Thank you for your attention
Presentation by Olli REHN, Vice President for Economic and Monetary
Affairs and the Euro Press Conference
15 November 2013
