PLAYING THE ODDS:FIRSTNET AT FOUR YEARS:WILL IT MAKE IT TO TEN?Bill Schrier for IWCE 2016

Las Vegas, of course!

DISCLAIMER

This presentation is personal opinion, and does not represent the official positions or opinions of elected

officials, appointed officials or anyone else affiliated with the State of Washington, City of Seattle or the First Responder

Network Authority

This presentation is designed to spur discussion and action.

WARNING:POLITICS AHEAD

“Everything is Art, everything is Politics”

“All politics are Local”

I’M PROBABLY WRONG, SO PAY ATTENTION

AGENDA FOR TODAY

1. Handicapping the States

2. Handicapping FirstNet

3. The Odds

4. Some Final Thoughts

1. HANDICAPPING THE STATESFirstNet at Four Years – IWCE 2016

ASSERTION 1: MOST STATES WILL “NOT OPT” OR “OPT IN”

•Protecting the Governor’s Back •Political Alignment•Analogy to Medicaid (no, FirstNet is not on life support)•Geographic size•Population density• First Responder density

ASSERTION 2: “OPT OUT” STATES WILL BE UNIQUE

•Governor and FedGov “not aligned”

•SPOC not connected to Govenor

•Vendors with much more access to Governor

•Density in Population and First Responders

ASSERTION 3: MOST “OPT OUT” STATES WILL FAIL BUILDING THEIR NETWORKS

• FirstNet is concerned about “opt out” • FCC and NTIA• Ponying up the cash• Waterfall projects are sinkholes• Competition is intense and it will get worse• Opt-out networks can’t make money and will fall behind technologically

ASSERTION 4: “ALIGNMENT” IS FICKLE

• If a D wins in November…

• If an R wins in November …

• If a T wins in November …

• Does “public safety” trump all … ?(pun intended)

• “No Opt” versus “Opt In” versus “Opt Out”

2. HANDICAPPING FIRSTNETFirstNet at Four Years – IWCE 2016

ASSERTION 5: IF ONE BIG CARRIER GETS THE FIRSTNET CONTRACT,

THE OTHERS WILL COMPETE

• Being “the Vendor for Public Safety” is a plum prize but there can be multiple carriers• Large carriers are already developing their competitive offerings – bandwidth, apps• Potential trouble for FirstNet: competition

ASSERTION 6: IF A NON-CARRIER GETS THE FIRSTNET CONTRACT, ALL HOPE IS LOST*

• Note: assuming a carrier is not a subcontractor

• The vendor must set up a new nationwide network for consumers as well as public safety

• This “other company” will never have user base or enough capital to compete

• This spells trouble for FirstNet – paired with a loser

• asterisk*

TWO THINGS FIRST RESPONDERS HATE

And …

ASSERTION 7: THE BIG HURDLE IS NOT OPT-IN OR OPT-OUT OR NO-OPT, BUT ADOPTION

• Getting responder agencies to buy is the problem

• Public Safety and Government in general are slow to adopt and change

• Equal or less price, better coverage

• FirstNet needs a “killer app” or “killer partners”

ASSERTION 8: AS TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPS OVER FUTURE YEARS, THESE EQUATIONS

WILL CHANGE

• A massive increase in consumer use• Video over wireless• More cord cutters• Fewer land lines (bad news for FEMA)• Spectrum is golden, but there is a lot of it and “technology marches on”• Pay attention to history: IBM PC, Internet, iPhone, the Sharing Economy, Uber, AirBnB

3. THE ODDSFirstNet at Four Years – IWCE 2016

GIVEN ALL THISWHAT ARE THE ODDS OF FIRSTNET BEING

SUCCESSFUL?

4. SOME FINAL THOUGHTSFirstNet at Four Years – IWCE 2016

HOW CAN WE INCREASE THE ODDS OF FIRSTNET’S SUCCESS?

TECHNIQUE 1: THE “KILLER APP”

• Priority?

• Situational Awareness?

• Push-to-talk?

• video?

• Cute cat photogaphs?

TECHNIQUE 2: A TRUE PARTNERSHIP

States Vendor Partner

PARTNERSHIP ROLES

States

Vendor Partner

• Build the Network

• Make it good

• Nationwide coordination for public safety

• Represent public Safety’s needs on the ground

• Help market FirstNet

WILL A PARTNERSHIP IMPROVE THE ODDS FOR FIRSTNET’S SUCCESS?

WHAT WILL THE STATES’ PART OF THIS PARTNERSHIP LOOK LIKE?

BILL SCHRIER

• Personal: bill@schrier.org

• Official business FirstNet bill.schrier@watech.wa.gov

• Official business Seattle Police bill.schrier@seattle.gov

• FirstNet in the other Washington: onenet.wa.gov

• Seattle Police Department: www.seattle.gov/police

• Blog: schrier.wordpress.com

• Twitter: @billschrier