FIRST RESPONDERS BACK TO BASICS - 2020 National Hurricane … Symons Powerpoint... ·...

FIRST RESPONDERSBACK TO BASICS

NHC CONFERENCE 2017

Leonard B. SymonsDeputy Commissioner

Public SafetyTown of Oyster Bay N.Y.

SYMONS SAYS: LINE

History teaches us that a lack of hurricane awareness and

preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters.

By knowing your vulnerability you can reduce the effects of a disaster.

THE BIG BATTLE

1. HURRICANE HYPE

2. HURRICANE AMNESIA

3. SOCIAL MEDIA

4. MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

Shark Infested Streets in NYC ?

Wikipedia: Definition of 1st

Responder

Employee’s of an Emergency Service who are likely to be among the 1st people to arrive at the scene of An Emergency such as an accident, natural disaster or terrorist attack

2007 – Such an Innocuous Year?

a. Steve Jobs and Apple released the first I-phone.

b. Facebook opened itself to anyone with e-mail

c. Twitter

d. Hadoop - software storage

e. The Cloud

f. Kindle – E book revolution

g. IBM - Watson

1st Responders - New Definition

Emergency Responders / Managers are part of the social safety network and are interpreters of weather information for the public and decision makers for planning and responding to events that threaten life and property

The New 1st Responder

a. The power of one

b. Trusted source

c. Decision Makers

d. Information Brokers (weather briefers)

Meteorologist

a. Professionals

b. Education to become a (MET) is Demanding, Challenging and Humbling … Physics, Math, Technology, Software, Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences.

“The only certainty in tropical cyclone forecasting is uncertainty”

“The only certainty in tropical cyclone forecasting is uncertainty”

LEONARD SYMONS

Deputy Commissioner Public Safety

UNCERTAINTY IS THE FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENT OF

WEATHER PREDICTION

…….MAX MAYFIELD

MAX MAYFIELD Former Director of the National Hurricane Center

• “I think the day is coming. I think eventually we are going to have a very powerful hurricane in a major metropolitan area worse than what we saw in Katrina and it is going to be a mega-disaster with lots of loss of lives.”

Tropical Weather Outlook

– Tropical Depression: < 39 mph

– Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph

– Hurricane: 74 mph or greater•Major Hurricane: 111 mph or greater

Tropical CyclonesClassified by Maximum Wind Speed

Tropical Weather OutlookClimatologyAtlantic Hurricanes & Tropical Storms

• Categorical(Low, Medium, and High)

• Probabilities

Current location of disturbances(discussed in the Tropical Weather Outlook)

Formation chance during the next 48 hrs

Tropical Outlook2-Day Formation Potential


Should we be concerned?


• Formation potential during the next 5 days

• Initial location of disturbance (X) indicated

• Shading represents potential formation area

What’s the chance this areaforms beyond two days?


Tropical Outlook

July 28 @ 8am

2 Day – 30%5 Day – 70%

Tropical Outlook

July 31 @ 8am

2 Day – 70%5 Day – 70%

There is a storm.How confident is the NHC?

Contingencies?Are watches possible?

• Forecast Discussion

Forecast DiscussionConfidence. Scenarios. Key Concerns.

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

1000 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

Hurricane Isaac is inland over southeastern Louisiana near Houma.

The cyclone has maintained an impressive radar signature, which

includes a ragged 40-nmi diameter eye. Curved convective rain

bands have increased in the eastern semicircle, and Doppler radar

velocities of near 80 kt over water support keeping Isaac as a

minimal hurricane for this advisory. Similar Doppler velocities

over land and over Lake Pontchartrain suggest wind gusts to near

80 kt could occur over southeastern Louisiana into this afternoon.

By late this afternoon or evening, however, Isaac is forecast to

weaken to a tropical storm, and become a tropical depression by

Thursday night.

Since Isaac is forecast to move slowly over the next 24-36 hours,

there will be a prolonged threat of flooding from heavy rains over

the northern Gulf coast area and the south-central United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 29.6N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

12H 30/0000Z 30.2N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND




72H 01/1200Z 38.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

• Relevant Observations

•Model Guidance

• Forecast Uncertainties

Forecasts reasoning

Forecast DiscussionConfidence. Scenarios. Key Concerns.

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 34


1000 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

Hurricane Isaac is inland over southeastern Louisiana near Houma.

The cyclone has maintained an impressive radar signature, which

includes a ragged 40-nmi diameter eye. Curved convective rain

bands have increased in the eastern semicircle, and Doppler radar

velocities of near 80 kt over water support keeping Isaac as a

minimal hurricane for this advisory. Similar Doppler velocities

over land and over Lake Pontchartrain suggest wind gusts to near

80 kt could occur over southeastern Louisiana into this afternoon.

By late this afternoon or evening, however, Isaac is forecast to

weaken to a tropical storm, and become a tropical depression by

Thursday night.

Since Isaac is forecast to move slowly over the next 24-36 hours,

there will be a prolonged threat of flooding from heavy rains over

the northern Gulf coast area and the south-central United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 29.6N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND





72H 01/1200Z 38.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Table of track and intensity forecasts

Tropical Cyclone UpdateUnexpected Changes. Location. Landfall.

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920121100 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING NEW ORELANS AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...

At 1100 am CDT...1600 UTC...The center of hurricane Isaac was

Estimated near latitude 29.6 north...Longitude 90.7 west...Or very

Near Houma Louisiana...And about 45 miles southwest of New Orleans

Louisiana. Isaac is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9

Km/h and this general motion is expected to continue through

tonight.

A gust to 67 mph was recently reported at Shell Beach, Louisiana.

Tropical storm conditions continue along the Mississippi and

Alabama coasts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W

ABOUT 1 MI...2 KM W OF HOUMA LOUISIANA

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/ZELINSKY

• Unexpected changesoccur in the cyclone

• Cyclone landfall

• Issuing internationalwatches and warnings

• 1-hourly position estimates when a cyclone with an eye is nearing land

There is a storm.When is the next update?Can we get a briefing?

• Timeline for advisories

Timeline for AdvisoriesScheduled Updates

Time in EDT

No Watches/Warnings In Effect

• 5 am – Advisory

• 11 am – Advisory

• 5 pm – Advisory

• 11 pm – Advisory

Time in EDT

• 5 am – Advisory• 8 am – Intermediate Advisory

• 11 am – Advisory• 2 pm – Intermediate Advisory

• 5 pm – Advisory• 8 pm – Intermediate Advisory

• 11 pm – Advisory• 2 am – Intermediate Advisory

Watches/Warnings In Effect

Timeline for AdvisoriesScheduled Updates

There is a storm.Where is the greatest concern?When will the hazards begin?

• Watches and Warnings

• Notification Fatigue

MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

The Global Hawk is a new Bird recently discovered in Butterfly world

in Florida.

Global Hawk

FOLLOW THE LONG SKINNY BLACK LINE AND YOU WILL KNOW WHERE

THE STORM IS GOING

The Long Skinny Line

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Gloria_rainfall.gif

Hurricane CharleyDon’t focus on the skinny black line.

Tropical Weather OutlookHurricane CharleyDon’t focus on the skinny black line.

Tropical Weather Outlook

3737

Hurricane CharleyDon’t focus on the skinny black line.

THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS MY GUIDE

TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PERSON

SEE IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CIRCLE

IF NOT DON’T WORRY – NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU

THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS MY GUIDE

TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PERSON

SEE IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CIRCLE

IF NOT DON’T WORRY – NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU

• Probable track of tropical cyclone center

• Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point

• Each circle uses NHC historical track errorsActual storm position will be within the circle 67% of the time.

NHC Forecast ConeThe cure for the skinny black line?

NHC Atlantic Track Error TrendsSignificant Reduction in Track Errors Since 1990

Change in Average 2-day Track Error Since 1990

Cone On a Diet

2005 Cone for Katrina

Cone On a Diet

2015 Cone - Smaller cone means more impacts occur outside the cone!

Impacts Outside the Cone!

• Only shows information about track uncertaintyNo information about specific impacts

• Impacts can occur well outside of the coneCenter is expected to move outside the cone about 1/3 of the time.

NHC Forecast ConeNo worries, not in the cone?

CONE WIND ENHANCEMENT

SYMONS SAYS:

a. Don’t just look at the graphics

b. Don’t just look at the cone

c. Don’t just look at the long skinny line

Little Progress with Intensity

Notable improvements in intensity forecasts over the past few years.Beginning of a trend?

24-48 h intensity forecasts likely to be off by

one SSHS category, and off by two SSHS

categories perhaps 5-10% of the time

The 24 and 48 hour NHC intensity forecasts are on average off by oneSaffir-Simpsoncategory.

0 1 2 3 4 5

Forecast Period (Days)

9

13

Incr

eas

ing

Erro

r (k

t)

Forecast Intensity ErrorsNHC 5-Year Averages

Rapid intensification remains a forecast challengeand often results in very large errors• Our ability to recognize conditions that favor rapid intensification has

improved, however forecasting the extent and timing of that intensification remains difficult.

2 Rapid Strengthening Examples

• Wilma Advisory 11 (2005)Initial Intensity: 60 kt24h Intensity Forecast: 80 ktActual Intensity: 150 ktError: 70 kt

• Gonzalo Advisory 7 (2014)Initial Intensity: 75 kt24h Intensity Forecast: 90 ktActual Intensity: 115 ktError: 25 kt

Forecast Intensity ErrorsRapid Strengthening

SYMONS SAYS:

A Category 4 hurricane (131-155 mph) causes 250 times the damage as a Category 1

Even though the major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 & 5 storms) comprise only 21% of all U.S. land falling hurricanes, they account

for 83 % of all damage.

SYMONS SAYS:FORECAST MODELS

a. Computer Simulation of the Global Atmosphere

b. Dynamical, Statistical, Ensembles,consensus

c. The future of Forecasting – Ensemble Predictions vs Deterministic

d. GFS vs. Euro (Initialization/Members/Grid Spacing)

e. The Future – High Resolution (4 NM Grid Spacing) Ensemble Forecast System

HOW ABOUT THOSE SPAGHETTI PLOTS?

I like my pasta “al dente”

Some of those lines are nowhere near my home.

Homemade sauce anyone?

WHEN I WAS IN SCHOOL, I DID VERY WELL IN MATH.

WHEN IT COMES TO NUMBERS, I KNOW WHAT I’M DOING.

25% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS 75% FOR NONE.

NO NEED TO PANIC – NO NEED TO PREPARE

• Location-specific probabilities– Tropical-storm-force– 58 mph– Hurricane-force

• Text product(fixed set of locations)– Cumulative probabilities – Onset probabilities

• Graphical product– Cumulative probabilities for

points over a large domain

Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHow Likely. Arrival Times. Inland Threat

NHC Tropical Cyclone

Advisory ProductsWind Speed ProbabilitiesHow are they generated?

• 1,000 realistic alternative scenarios are created– Official NHC forecast

– Historical NHC track andintensity forecast errors

– Climatology and persistence wind radii model

• Weakening over land

• Track model spreadPast NHC track forecast errors are correlated to the spread of track model guidance

New York City, NY

590 of 1,000 scenarios produce tropical storm winds at that location.

Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHow are they generated?

590/1,000 = 59%chance of TS force winds

59%

New York City, NY

Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHow are they generated?

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21


0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM

TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO

18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION KT

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 30(55) 16(71) 2(73) 1(74)

PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) 2(31) 1(32)

PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 31(73) 5(78) X(78)

PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 5(39) 1(40)

PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 35(64) 8(72) 1(73)

MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 1(34)

MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 34(58) 10(68) 1(69)

GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28) 2(30)

GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12)

When are Tropical Storm (34kt) winds most likely to start at Pensacola, FL?

Pensacola, FL

Wind Speed ProbabilitiesTropical Storm Isaac (2012)

NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products

Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Katrina

Landfall of a marginal hurricanein South Florida

– Low probabilities of hurricane force winds

Landfall of a major hurricane along the Gulf Coast

– Increasing probabilities alongthe forecast as landfall approaches


Low ProbabilityUncertainty if Katrina will be a hurricaneand the small size of hurricane wind field

36hr Forecast80 mph

Cat 1 Hurricane

Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Katrina – Adv #5

10% chance of hurricane-force winds at any individual point

along SE Florida coast


6464

New OrleansTS probability: 59%H probability: 15%

72 hour forecast

intensity = 130 mph

category 4 hurricane


Increasing ProbabilitiesIncreasing intensity forecast anddecrease in track forecast uncertainty


48 hour forecast

intensity = 145 mph

category 4 hurricane


High ProbabilityIncreasing intensity forecast andgreater track certainty – 48hr until landfall

New OrleansTS probability: 86%H probability: 34%

Hurrevac

66

HurrevacWind threat –Wind Speed Probabilities

66

Hurrevac:

67

Wind timing

HurrevacWind Timing – All Affected Areas

Report for Hurricane Arthur Based on Advisory 11 Issued 7/3/2014 11 AM EDT

Wind Timing All Affected Areas

Location 34kt(39mph) 50kt(58mph) 64kt(74mph) 64ktEND(dur) 50ktEND(dur) 34ktEND(dur) Peak Wind

NC Dare 07/03 22E 07/04 02E 07/04 03E 07/04 06E [03] 07/04 07E [05] 07/04 09E [11] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 04E

NC Hyde 07/03 21E 07/04 01E 07/04 02E 07/04 04E [02] 07/04 06E [05] 07/04 08E [11] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 03E

NC Carteret 07/03 16E 07/03 21E 07/04 00E 07/04 03E [03] 07/04 04E [07] 07/04 07E [15] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 02E

NC Craven 07/03 18E 07/03 23E 07/04 01E 07/04 02E [01] 07/04 03E [04] 07/04 05E [11] 64kt (74mph) 07/04 01E

NC Pamlico 07/03 19E 07/04 00E 07/04 04E [04] 07/04 06E [11] 61kt (70mph) 07/04 02E

NC Onslow 07/03 15E 07/03 21E 07/04 01E [04] 07/04 04E [13] 60kt (69mph) 07/03 23E

NC Tyrrell 07/03 23E 07/04 03E 07/04 06E [03] 07/04 08E [09] 58kt (67mph) 07/04 04E

NC Jones 07/03 18E 07/03 22E 07/04 01E [03] 07/04 04E [10] 56kt (64mph) 07/04 00E

NC Beaufort 07/03 20E 07/04 01E 07/04 03E [02] 07/04 06E [10] 55kt (63mph) 07/04 02E

NC Currituck 07/04 01E 07/04 05E 07/04 06E [01] 07/04 09E [08] 52kt (60mph) 07/04 05E

NC Pender 07/03 15E 07/03 21E 07/03 23E [02] 07/04 02E [11] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 21E

NC New Hanover 07/03 13E 07/03 18E 07/03 21E [03] 07/04 01E [12] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 19E

NC Brunswick 07/03 12E 07/03 18E 07/03 20E [02] 07/04 00E [12] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 18E

NC Washington 07/03 23E 07/04 07E [08] 49kt (56mph) 07/04 03E

NC Camden 07/04 01E 07/04 08E [07] 46kt (53mph) 07/04 05E

MA Nantucket 07/04 21E 07/05 04E [07] 45kt (52mph) 07/05 00E

NC Pasquotank 07/04 02E 07/04 08E [06] 44kt (51mph) 07/04 04E

WIND TIMING CHARTS AND REPORTS

▪ BASED UPON A DETERMINISTIC FORCAST

▪ DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES

▪ NOT A GOOD PLATFORM OFF OF WHICH TO

MAKE DECISIONS UNTIL THE STORM IS CLOSE

▪ GOOD FOR GENERAL INFORMATION AND

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

EXPERIMENTAL TIME OF ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE

WINDS GRAPHIC

1. 39+ Winds-A critical Planning Threshold2. Timing estimated using Deterministic NHC Track3. Monte Carlo wind Speed Probability Model ( 1000

Plausible Scenarios )4. Two graphics:

10% Chance of Onset of Trop Winds 50% chance of Onset of Trop Winds

Probability Of Arrival Of Tropical Storm Force Winds

SURGE IS ,LIKE A TSUNAMI – A HIGH WALL OF WATER LIKE WHEN YOU

HAVE AN EARTHQUAKE

There is nothing out there to tell me whether my area will be flooded except

my own eyes and ears.I know an earthquake when I see one.

Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge

IF THE WIND INCREASES, I WOULD CONSIDER EVACUATION.

WIND SPEED IS THE CRITERIA FOR EVACUATION.

SYMONS SAYS:

Old Hurricane adage

Hide from the wind and run from the water.

I HAVE THIS MAP – COLOR CODED –WHERE FLOODING IS LINKED TO

CATEGORY OF STORM UNDER THE SAFFIR SIMPSON WIND SCALE.

IT TELLS ME HOW FAR THE WATER WILL PENETRATE INLAND.

THE STORM IS ONLY A CAT 2 – I’M HOME FREE

Remember Ike, Charlie and Irene

LONG ISLAND FLOOD MAP

WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS

• GRANDMA SAYS “IF WE GO TO THE BEACH, WE CAN’T GO INTO THE WATER BECAUSE IT IS TOO DANGEROUS”.

• DAD SAYS “GRANDMA MISSED THE LATEST FORECAST –SUNNY AND WARM – NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT”.

Tropical Weather OutlookWaves and Rip CurrentsCan occur when a storm is well offshore

Swells from a large hurricane can affect the beach of the entire western Atlantic

Hurricane Bertha (2008)- Over 1500 rescues in

Ocean City, Maryland

- 3 people drowned alongthe coast of New Jersey

Hurricane Bill (2009)- 1 person died in Maine- 1 person died in Florida

I HAVE LIVED ALL MY LIFE HERE –THE STORMS ALWAYS CURVE AWAY.

ANYWAY I AM WORRIED ABOUT WIND NOT WATER.

U.S. Tropical Cyclone DeathsWater is responsible for vast majority

from 1963 - 2012

SATTELLITES ARE REALLY NOT THAT IMPORTANT

SOMEONE TOLD ME THAT IF THE EURO MODEL DID NOT HAVE THE

DATA FROM THE 14 POLAR ORBITING SATTELLITES, THE FIVE

DAY FORECAST WOULD HAVE HAD SANDY MISSING THE NORTHEAST.

GOES 16 - High Def from the Heavens

a. Launch date 11/19/16

b. 1st major redesign in more then 20 years

c. Image of Conus –once / 5 minutes

d. Higher Resolution

e. Lightning Mapper

HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS AFFECT THOSE LIVING

ALONG THE COAST.

INLAND THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

INLAND FLOODING RESPONSIBLE FOR 50% + DEATHS

WHEN I WAS IN 9TH GRADE, I TOOK EARTH SCIENCE.

YES, THAT WAS 30 YEARS AGO BUT I KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT

HURRICANES.

THIS STORM IS NO SANDY AND NO IRENE.

What did we learn?

The strongest winds in a hurricane typically are on the left side of the

storm.

Hurricane Sandy Track

Track maximized storm surge

STORM SURGE

• WHAT IS THE MEANING OF 20’ OF SURGE?

• OFTEN THE GREATEST THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY

• DOES NOT ALWAYS OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME OR LOCATION AS HAZARDOUS WINDS

• SEPARATE WARNINGS FOR WIND AND WATER

• 10% EXCEEDENCE VALUE- INUNDATION

Tropical Weather OutlookStorm Surge Storm Surge vs Storm Tide

STORM SURGE – An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide.

STORM TIDE – The water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide.

• IntensityStronger storm = More storm surge

• Size (RMW)Bigger storm = More storm surge

• Forward SpeedSlower storm = Storm surge farther inland

• Width and Slope of Shelf (Bathymetry)Gradual shelf = More storm surge

• Angle of approachAlters focus of storm surge

• Central PressurePressure driven surge about 5% of total storm surge

Tropical Weather OutlookStorm SurgeFactors Affecting Storm Surge


Storm SurgeSLOSH Model

Sea,Lake, andOverlandSurges from HurricanesA numerical model used to estimate storm surge heights resultingfrom historical, hypothetical,or predicted hurricanes

Storm Surge

Tropical Weather OutlookStorm Surge Components of ‘Total Water Level’

Total Water Level Storm surge + Tides + Wave Setup + Freshwater

Tropical Weather OutlookHurricane IvanWhat a difference a bay makes.

Hurricane IvanWhat a difference a bay makes.

Deterministic SLOSH Limited surge threat to Pensacola area


Hurricane Irene

Advisory #22

Forecast Track

Alternate P-surge Tracks

Probabilistic Storm SurgeMultiple Tracks and Landfall Locations


Probabilistic Storm SurgeWeb Based. Timing. Availability.

• Available when a Hurricane Watch/Warning is in effect• 48 hours prior to arrival of TS winds

• Available approx 1 hourafter full advisory times

• 0500 0600 EDT• 1100 1200 EDT• 1700 1800 EDT• 2300 0000 EDT

ADVISORY TIME P-SURGE AVAILABLE

SYMONS SAYS:

What are two items not included in storm surge watch/warning graphics and inundation?

SYMONS SAYS:

What are two items not included in storm surge watch/warning graphics and inundation?

WAVE ACTION

FRESH WATER FLOOD

STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING

1. Life threatening inundation from a tropical cyclone, sub tropical cyclone, post tropical cyclone and maybe a potential tropical cyclone

2. National Storm Surge Hazard Maps- Interactive/ Risk Eval

3. Hurricane local statements

4. NHC public advisory

5. Issuance of watches and advisories for potential tropical cyclones will include potential cyclone advisory package

6. Tropical Tidbits

INUNDATION MAP / WATCH WARNING

When available?

INUNDATION MAP / WATCH WARNINGWhen available?

WHEN A WATCH / WARNING IS POSTED OR ANYTIME WITHIN 48 HOURS OF EXPECTED TROPICAL WINDS ON LAND.

Storm SurgePotential Inundation Graphic


Storm Surge WarningGraphic

SYMONS SAYS:The greatest peacetime evacuation in American history was Hurricane Floyd

(category 4) in 1999

• Over 3.5 million people, from 4 states, (Fla, GA, N.C. and S.C) evacuated.

• Trips that normally took 2 hours lasted 16 -18 hours.

• 2 million Floridians left their homes.

FLOODING SOURCES

a. The sea

b. Fresh water

c. Rain runoff, river and stream rise

Where do we find rainfall forecasts?

FLOODING SOURCES

a. The sea

b. Fresh water

c. Rain runoff, river and stream rise

Where do we find rainfall forecasts?

LOCAL WFO HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT OR NHC/NWS (WPC).

WHO’S THE BOSS – NHC OR WFO?

a. All Hazards are Local – Downscaled and refined at the WFO

b. HLS – Hurricane Local Statement• Lead Statement

• Areas Covered

• Watch/Warning

• Recommend Precautionary Action/Timing

• Surge and Storm Tide Information

National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Weather Forecast Offices (WFO)

Work together to provide a clear and consistent tropical message trustworthy message

NHC Storm Specific Information – Large ScaleStorm Intensity, track, size

Domain of interest moves with stormPotential Surge ValuesWind Values

WFO Offices - DownscaledFocus on local storm impacts Domain of interest is local County Warning Area

NWS Forecast OfficesHurricane Local Statements

HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 32

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL242005

530 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THIS PRODUCT COVERS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA

**EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING DAMAGE AND LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS

EXPECTED AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION

-----------------------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR

MIAMI-DADE…BROWARD…PALM BEACH…COLLIER…GLADES AND MONROE COUNTIES

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI -DADE…BROWARD…PALM

BEACH…COLLIER…HENDRY…GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES

* STORM INFORMATION:

- ABOUT 405 MI SW OF NAPLES FL

- 22.1N 86.6W

- STORM INTENSITY 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS

- MOVING NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW

---------------------------------

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTH

FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION IN SURGE-PRONE AREAS OF COLLIER/MAINLAND

Issued by local NWS office• Hurricane (Tropical Storm)

Watch/Warning in effect

Situation overview• Watch/warning information• Potential impact information• Preparedness actions

REMEMBER

Biggest single enemy in this high consequence, low

probability event is

COMPLACENCY !!!

FIRST RESPONDERS BACK TO BASICS - 2020 National Hurricane … Symons Powerpoint... ·...

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