FIRE BULLETS, THEN CANNONBALLS

Group 6Justin ShampRyan MoellerTate RouecheStuart Gaston

Michael GrizzleRachel Camunez

Fanatic Discipline

Productive Paranoia

Level 5 Ambition

Empirical Creativity

“You may not find what you were looking for, but you find something else

equally important.” -Robert Noyce

A Big Surprise

PSA vs. Southwest Airlines

Genentech vs. Amgen

More important factors than innovation?“One fad behind”

Threshold Innovation

Each environment has a level of threshold innovation

Industry Primary Innovation Dimension

Innovation Threshold

BiotechnologyNew drug development, scientific

discoveries, breakthroughs High

AirlinesNew service features, new

business models and practices Low

Creativity And Discipline

Advanced Memory Systems vs. IntelNot about being first to market, but being

prepared when you decide to enter

“Intel Delivers” rather than “Intel Innovates”

Blend creative intensity with relentless discipline

Bullets, Then Cannonballs Not putting all your gun powder into one

cannonballShoot small bullets till you hit target, then

put all gunpowder into same line of sight for big hit

What Makes A Bullet? A bullet is low cost

The size of the bullet grows as the enterprise grows

A bullet is low riskLow risk doesn’t mean high probability of success but

rather minimal consequences if the bullet goes awry or hits nothing

A bullet is low distractionMeaning low distraction for the overall enterprise; it

might be very high distraction for one or few individuals

Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs

Approach to principle:Fire BulletsAssess: Did your bullets hit anything?Consider: Do any of your successful bullets

merit conversation to a big cannonball?Convert: Concentrate resources and fire a

cannonball once calibratedDon’t fire uncalibrated cannonballsTerminate bullets that show no evidence of

eventual success

Calibrated vs. Uncalibrated Calibrated bullets

Has confirmation based on actual experience, empirical validation, that a big bet will likely prove successful

Uncalibrated bulletsA cannonball fired before you gain empirical

validation

Danger of firing multiple uncalibrated bulletsPSA

Learning from follies

Difference between 10Xers and Comparison Companies10Xers view mistakes as expensive tuition:

better get something out of it, apply the learning, and don’t repeat

Underlying Principle: Empirical ValidationFigure out what works in practice and do it

better than everyone else

Predictive Genius or Empirical Validation? Bill Gates

IBM vs. Microsoft operating systemsFired bullets at both so he would have a

good outcome either wayLaunched cannonball at MS-DOS and made

it big

10Xers aren’t visionary geniuses; they’re empiricists

Conclusion

Fire bullets, then cannonball approach

Failure to fire cannonballs, once calibrated, leads to mediocre results

Marry relentless discipline with creativity