EPS based probabilistic forecasts and verification at Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Finnish Meteorological Institute s Services for Insurance Sector · 2014-11-06 · Finnish...
Transcript of Finnish Meteorological Institute s Services for Insurance Sector · 2014-11-06 · Finnish...
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Finnish Meteorological
Institute´s
Services for Insurance
Sector
Regional training workshop
Role of the NMHSs in support
of DRR- related activities
in the field of insurance
Janne Miettinen,
Account Manager,
Customer Services
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• FMI in brief
• Weather and Safety Service
• Services for Insurance Sector • Present Services
• Future Services
Topics
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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FMI in Brief
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Organization 1.1.2014
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Personnell
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Weather & Safety Service
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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• Weather service production for the whole society
• Operational on duty hours 150-200/day
69% 6%
12%
13%
Personnel
meteorologistssea expertsassistant meteorologistsmanagers & assistants
40%
30%
14%
8%
5%
3% Funding
Government Civil Aviation
Commercial Military
Traffic Other
Aviation Weather Service Rovaniemi
Aviation Weather Service Kuopio
Aviation Weather Service Tampere
Aviation Weather Service Helsinki
Marine Services Safety Weather Service
Weather Services 13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
Weather and Safety Centre
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Observation
Network
Operative stations, in total ca. 550
Sounding stations 3
Weather radars 8
Antennas for lightning location 8
Air quality stations 30
Surface observation stations 180
Rainfall measurement sites 400
Automation 95%
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Numerical Weather Models at FMI
High Resolution Limited Area
Models •HIRLAM RCR (~7.5km)
•HARMONIE (2.5km)
Global models
•ECMWF (~15 km)
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
Meteorological Workstation -
Smartmet
• Visualization of the data: • Numerical models
• Observations, etc.
• Multiple ways for visualization
• Choosing NWP-model
• Editing the model data
~ Million forecaster corrected
products per day generated
automatically from the modified
grid database
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Observations
Forecast models
Automatic production Special products
24/7 control and editing
WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTION SYSTEM
11 6.11.2014
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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24/7 Warning Services
• 2013: 28 days of very bad road
conditions
• Red and orange colored warnings
cause significant harm
• Tapani storm caused nearly 6000
alerts for Emergency Response
Centre 26.-28.12.2011
• First information about coming storm
from the FMI 22.12., pre-warnings
and VAARA-announcement 23.12.
• Electricity outages and fallen trees
caused danger for e.g. road and rail
traffic
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Distribution channels for general
public
• Radio and TV
• fmi.fi: graphics, texts
• Mobile apps
• Meteoalarm since 2007
• Twitter feeds since 2009
• 24/7 media phone contact 2008
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Weather Services for authorities
• Trajectories and dispersion calculations of
airborne substances
• Drifting calculations for sea areas
• Severe Weather Outlooks
• Monitoring Centre for Natural disasters
• Web User Interfaces
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Marine Services for shipping
•Sea ice monitoring
•Sea level, waves, temperature
forecasts/warnings
•High resolution satellite
applications
•Customers: Finnish Transport
Agency, Ice-breakers, general public
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Commercial weather services
• Customized services • Weather services on mobile phone • TV, radio and www • Newspapers • Road and marine traffic • Agriculture and forestry • Industry and energy • Insurance sector
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Services for Insurance Sector
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Present Services
• FMI´s Climate Service provides: • Weather data from the past
• Statistical data
• Future scenarios and consultation
• Frequently asked parameters: • Wind speed
• Rain fall
• Lightning strikes
• Snow amounts
• Insurance companies get weather related data by request • Phone calls (2 man months)
• Requests via e-mail
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• Forrest damages
• Damage to houses or vehicles
• Flooding
• Sealevel rise
• Traffic accidents during winter
• Snowload damages
Usual Indemnities Due to
Weather
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• Data from FMI´s AWS –
stations
• Finnish Traffic Agancy´s
RWS –stations
• 10 min avg wind speed limit
15 - 20 m/s
• Kriging analysis can be done
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Wind
FMI´s AWS
FTA´s RWS
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• Rain station data
• Radar based rainfall
products
• Radar images every 5
minutes (8 radars)
Flashes
• Avg 140 000 flashes
annually
• Btw 50 000 – 350 000/
year
• Positioning 600m
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
Rain
Radar coverage
FMI´s rain stations
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• FMI´s snow depth stations
• Finnish Enviroment Institute
is main provider of service
Road
• 1500 injured, over 50 dead
2013 during wintertime
• 100 000 indemnity
cases/year
• ~280 dead yearly
• Finnish Transport Agency´s
observations
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
Snow
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Future Services
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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• User interface for insurance
companies
• Charts for treshold values
• Maximum value charts
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Observation Services
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Insurance
Companies Care
About Clients
• Early warnings • Probabilistic forecasts • Warnings based on:
• Placement
• Type of insurance
• Client level • Client informing:
• SMS
• Mobile Apps
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Risk Management
• Climate scenarios • Adjusting the limit values
for different weather scenarios
• Readines • Early warnings for
customers • Insurance company´s
personel alarmed
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Automatic Warning
Services
• Based on weather forecasts
and road weather forecasts
• Warnings for road users
and pedestrians
• Warnings with windspeed
limit
• Threshold value is reached
->Customer is alarmed
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey
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Mobile Application
• Weather and road
weather observations
and forecasts
• Official warnings
• Road warnings with 11
warning classes
• Utilizes users location
13 – 14 October 2014, Ankara, Turkey