Finnair Q3 2017 result · PDF fileQ2 2015-48. Q1 2015. Revenue 735 M ... • Tour operator...
Transcript of Finnair Q3 2017 result · PDF fileQ2 2015-48. Q1 2015. Revenue 735 M ... • Tour operator...
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Finnair Q3 2017 result25 October 2017CEO Pekka Vauramo
• Revenue up by 15% to record level of 735 M€
• Aircraft flew full, passenger load factor was 87%• Asian routes and San Francisco sold well
• Record in daily number of passengers in July, +40,000
• Ancillary sales, cargo and travel services grew at double-digit rates
• Customer satisfaction (NPS) at record level
• The first-phase of extensive long-haul fleet renewal was completed
• Equity ratio above the industry average
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All-time best quarter
NPS = Net Promoter Score.
Comparable operating result has improved for 12 quarters in a row
3
Comparable operating result, 12 months rolling
0
150
100
50
-50
24
Q3 2015
Q3 2017
6155
Q2 2016
37
54
149
Q4 2015
96
Q1 2016
Q2 2017
Q3 2016
Q1 2017
Q4 2016
53
14
-24-31
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
-36
Q2 2015
-48
Q1 2015
3
Revenue735 M€+15%
(640.9 M€*)
Comparable operating result
119 M€+81%
(65.7 M€*)
RASK +3.3%CASK -3.5%
NPS 52%(44%*)
* Q3 2016. NPS = Net Promoter Score.
-2.1% -1.6% -1.4% -1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 4.0% 6.0%Comparable operating result, % of revenue
Revenue, M€
• Asia +22.7%• North-Atlantic +3.6%• Europe +15.1%• Domestic +1.9%*
Passenger Load Factor, %
4
• Asia +3.7% -p• North-Atlantic +8.1% -p• Europe +1.1% -p• Domestic -2.8% -p*• Total. +3.0% -p
Capacity (ASK), M km
• Asia +15.1%• North-Atlantic +0.3%• Europe +9.5%• Domestic +0.1%*
299798801
300
Europe
4 0053 657
DomesticNorth-Atlantic
4 9874 332
Asia
84
68
838187 87
66
848991
Europe Domestic TotalNorth Atlantic
Asia
* Domestic flying restricted by runway renewal at Oulu.
250
200
150
350
0
300
100
50 45
310
North-Atlantic
Asia
266 269
43
327
Europe Domestic
3333
Q3 2017Q3 2016
Well-timed growth, right network decisions and strong passenger demand
• Strong demand from Japan and China to Europe
• Tight competition and consolidation continue• AirBerlin and Monarch bankruptcies, Alitalia• LCC’s exploring partnership options to expand
networks• SAS plans directed share issue aimed at
strengthening balance sheet
• Passenger load factor decreasing in domestic flying
• Finnair acquires Norra on an interim basis
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Strong demand environment – but with uncertainties
• We target to grow faster than our European peers in the traffic between Asia and Europe
• New destinations: Nanjing, Stuttgart, Lisbon, Bergen & Tromsø 2018
• Additional capacity to existing destinations: 145,000+ seats to Berlin
• Additional frequencies to Asia and America• Finnair Holidays Finland & Sweden: a new product
combining the best of independent travelling and package holidays
• COOL cargo terminal ramp-up and implementation
• Recruitments continue, focusing mainly on flight crew
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We continue our growth strategy
• New long-haul destinations• Goa, India 1 November• Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 5 November • Puerto Plata, Dominic Republic 30 November• Havana, Cuba 1 December
• New non-stop flights to Lapland airports from London Gatwick, Paris and Zurich
• In total, Finnair is offering 430,000 seats to five of Lapland’s airports during the winter season, over 20% increase compared to the previous winter season
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Finnair’s route expansion to reach all-time high during winter season 2017/18
• Net Promoter Score (NPS) 52%
• Fazer selected as the new lounge partner
• Further development of inflight meals
• Investments in personal services
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Better customer experience
• Digital channels create already 23% of total ticket sales (+16%)
• 180,000 active mobile app users (+88%)• 2.3 million visitors/month on internet site
(finnair.com) (+23%)
• Digital tools for personnel: SkyPay, maintenance apps
• Bókun co-operation to accelerate growth of Finland’s travel industry
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Digitalisation accelerates growth
15-year Finnair share performance (price)
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Market Cap1,423.6 M€(23 Oct 2017)
Strategy 2018−2020
• The growth plan and the four previous focus areas were reviewed and confirmed:
• Doubling of Asian traffic in 2018 versus 2010 (two years ahead of original schedule)
• Doubling of ancillary revenues in 2020 versus 2016
• New target for the number of passengers, 20 million in 2030
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Financial targets unchanged: • EBIT margin 6% over cycle • EBITDAR margin minimum of
17% over cycle• Adjusted gearing maximum of
175% • Return on capital employed
(ROCE) minimum of 7%
Growth Customer Experience
People Experience
Transfor-mation
Outlook unchanged
• Finnair estimates that in 2017 its capacity will grow approximately 9 per cent, weighted strongly towards the second half of the year. Full-year revenue is expected to grow approximately in line with capacity.
• Finnair expects its comparable operating result for 2017 to be in the range of 135-155 million euro (2016: 55 million euro), if current fuel prices and exchange rates prevail and assuming no material changes in business environment.
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13
FinancePekka Vähähyyppä
Comparable revenue*
Comparable operating result nearly doubled year-on-year
Capacity and traffic
14
Profit improvement driven by traffic growthancillary sales, cargo and travel services grew at double digit rates too
Comparable operating result
735
Q3 2016 Q3 2017
637
+15.4%
Ancillary salesPassenger revenue
Travel servicesCargo
8.000
12.000
10.000
2.000
6.000
4.000
2.500
1.000
1.500
3.000
3.500
500
0
2.000
0
10.093
Q3 2016
8.799
+11 %
Q3 2017
7.6539.087
Passengers Traffic (RPK)Capacity (ASK)
Pax, milj.ASK, milj.
PLF 84.2%
PLF 87.2%
* excl. SMT
Q3 2017
+81 %
66
119
Q3 2016
Biggest changes in Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2016
• Passenger revenue up by 16% - passenger load factor and yields increased at the same time as capacity increased 11.1%. Ancillary sales, cargo revenue and travel services revenue grew at double digit rates.
• Increase in staff costs is explained by an increase in the number of personnel from the comparison period, acquisition of Finnair Kitchen, extensive training of flight crew and provisions made in the third quarter for incentives and profit-based contributions in the personnel fund
• Tour operator costs increased as a result of growing volumes and changes in destination mix.• Fleet growth and renewal increased aircraft leases and depreciations.
Q3 EBIT increased by +53 M€ year-on-yearyields and loads were above prior year level despite of the capacity growth
15
4.8
Other exp.
-17.3-4.2
Tour operator
Staff Leases&depreciation
CateringFuel
Ancillary & retail 3.6Passenger 81.8
Revenue
-4.75.6
118.96.5
Travel services 6.7
Q3 EBIT
65.7
Other (NET)
-25.5
Q3 EBIT PY
Cargo 6.2
Travel agency -3.7
94.5
-6.4
Rents
+53.2
Q3 PY
27,878
Q3 CY
29,480
+5.7%
Q3 PY
9,087
Q3 CY
10,093
+11.1%
Q3 PY
2,987
3,274
Q3 CY
+9.6%
RASK
173EUR / PAX
Q3 PY
+5.7%
183EUR / PAX
Q3 CY
84.2
+3.0pp
Q3 CY
87.2
Q3 PY
Q3 CY
+0.8%
Q3 PY
11.4EUR /PAX
11.3EUR /PAX
Q3 PY Q3 CY
+3.3%
7.057.29
Q3 CYQ3 PY
38.8KG
+12.9%
43.8KG
Q3 CY
1.18EUR /KG
Q3 PY
1.17EUR /KG
+0.6%
FLIGHTS ASK, mill
PAX, 1000 Avg. fare1 PLF, %
Ancillary REV Cargo, mill Cargo yield
1) Avg. fare = Passenger revenue per revenue passengers
Q3 2017 Passenger revenue vs. Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Other revenue vs. Q3 2016, excl. SMT
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Revenue increased as a result of higher passenger load factors and favourable development of Asian and European traffic
1 Revenue per RPK
Q3 PY Q3 CY
597.7
515.9
Yield, mix, other
15.2
+81.8
FX
-2.915.0
PLF (load)
ASK
54.5
515.9
1.0
Q3 CY
597.7-2.9
DomesticAsia
+81.8
Europe
25.11.9
56.8
AtlanticQ3 PY
Unallo-cated
42.0
Cargo
6.7
Travel services
51.6
48.7
137.7
Ancillary
121.3
Q3 PY Q3 CY
+16.4
3.6
45.5
33.8
6.2 37.4
Travel servicesCargoAncillaryΔ to PY FEA ATA EUR DOM
ASK (%) 15.1% 0.3% 9.5% 0.1%PLF (pp) 3.7 8.1 1.1 -2.8Yield1 (%) 4.4% -4.9% 0.6% 7.4%RASK (%) 8.8% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0%
Total ASK (%) PLF (pp) Yield1 (%)Δ to PY 11.1% 3.0 0.8%Q3 CY 87.2%Q3 PY 84.2%
Balance sheets: new A350 investments increased assets
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Composition of adjusted net debt
-1.200
-1.400
-400
-200
-600
-1.000
-1.600
-1.800
0
-800
-891
Adjusted interest-bearing liabilities
-765
977
-678
CashAdjusted net debt
7x aircraft
leases + currency hedges
118
141
335413
424
139
30 Sep 2016
2,465
2,825
998
2,529
30 Sep 201731 Dec 2016
130162
Cash977
Fleet1,2611,049
797
591
412
I-B debt750
92
2,825
Equity981
372
30 Sep 2016
828
86
520
874
31 Dec 2016
718
2,529
857
348
30 Sep 2017
655
85
516
2,465
Equity
Assets HFS1
Other liabilitiesProvisions
I-B debt2
Cash
Fleet
Tickets
Other fixed assetsOther assets
1) HFS = held for sale, 2) I-B = interest-bearing
Strong cash flow from operating activities with improved profitability and sales growth – liquid funds grew to almost €1bn
18
liquid funds+180.0 M€
30 Sep 2017
977.3
664.7
117.6
547.1
312.6
31 Dec 2016
418.9
60.0
797.3
378.4
318.4
Cash and bank depositsCash in cash flow
Commercial paper, deposits and funds < 3 monthsCommercial paper, deposits and funds > 3 months
-54.8
EBIT
DA
Disp
osal
s
Divi
dend
pai
d
1.215.0
Inve
stm
ents
1.5
Oth
er
Wor
kinng
capi
tal
Cash
Q2
-96.7 -10.0156.9
Loan
pro
ceed
s
664.7
Loan
pay
men
ts
651.6
Oth
er
Cash
Q3
+13.0mEUR
Financing-10.0mEUR
Investing-80.5mEUR
Operating+103.6mEUR
Revenue Comparable operating result
19
Revenue and comparable operating result development
300
500
600
400
200
100
0
700
800
735
568641
Q3 Q4
622 570521
Q2
633570554 544536
Q1
201720162015
60
0
20
-20
40
100
-40
120
80
1
66
3
Q2
6438
Q4
2
Q3Q1
-28-13-9-15
119
2016 20172015
Adoption of IFRS 16 Leases standard (replaces IAS 17)
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• Finnair expects to adopt the IFRS 16 -standard from 2019 onwards, and plans to apply the full retrospective method significant impacts on Finnair financial statements and key ratios
• The present value of the future operating lease payments for aircraft and other lease agreements will be recognized as right-of-use -assets and interest-bearing liabilities in the balance sheet.* Lease cost is divided into depreciation of the right-of-use -asset (operating result) and interest cost for the liability (finance net).
• Significant impacts on following key ratios: operating result, EBITDA, cash flow from operating activities, cash flow from financing activities, interest-bearing net debt, gearing, and equity ratio.
INCOME STATEMENT
20
Lease expense Depreciation of ALL leases
Interest expense of ALL
leases
EBIT
PBT
CURRENT NEW
Finance lease depreciation
Finance lease Interest expense
BALANCE SHEET
CURRENT NEWFinance Lease
Asset
Finance Lease Liability
OFF-Balance sheet Operating lease
commitment
“Right-to-use” Lease Asset
Lease Liability for ALL leases
ASSETS
DEBT
OFF BS
*Currently, future lease payments are presented in the notes as operating lease commitments at their nominal value. Based on Finnair's preliminary evaluation, service contracts that relate to the usage of airports and terminals (HEL hub) do not qualify as lease arrangements for IFRS 16 purposes.
Income statement
in mill. EUR7-9
20177-9
2016Change
%1-9
20171-9
2016Change
% 2016Revenue 735,4 640,9 14,7 1 923,1 1 746,9 10,1 2 316,8Other operating income 18,2 16,2 12,1 57,2 56,2 1,8 75,5Operating expensesStaff costs -112,9 -87,4 29,2 -310,3 -272,2 14,0 -362,5Fuel costs -123,8 -128,7 -3,8 -349,8 -376,6 -7,1 -491,5Other rents -36,5 -42,1 -13,2 -119,5 -121,3 -1,5 -167,4Aircraft materials and overhaul -39,7 -39,1 1,6 -125,0 -113,3 10,3 -147,3Traffic charges -72,8 -70,6 3,2 -199,5 -198,0 0,8 -262,8Ground handling and catering expenses -62,8 -65,8 -4,5 -189,6 -193,2 -1,9 -258,9Expenses for tour operations -26,4 -22,1 19,0 -72,8 -64,6 12,7 -87,8Sales and marketing expenses -20,9 -19,0 10,2 -60,3 -57,2 5,5 -76,9Other expenses -68,7 -64,0 7,4 -211,2 -195,6 8,0 -266,6Comparable EBITDAR 188,9 118,3 59,6 342,2 211,0 62,2 270,4Lease payments for aircraft -35,2 -27,0 30,4 -100,5 -82,7 21,5 -109,5Depreciation and impairment -34,7 -25,6 35,4 -94,2 -74,8 26,0 -105,8Comparable operating result 118,9 65,7 81,0 147,5 53,5 175,5 55,2
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Fuel costs decreased despite spot price increase
• Q3/16 hedging loss 23.6 M€• Q3/17 hedging loss 3.4 M€
129 124
11 -2010 -6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016Q3 Volume Price Currency Hedgingdeviation
2017Q3
M€
Improved fuel efficiency with fleet renewal and aircraft up gauging
23
% share of operating costs, 1,833 M€ (1-9/2017)
Fuel hedges as at 30 September 2017
24
Fuel the single largest cost item in January – September
20 %
18 %
17 %11 %
11 %
10 %
6 %4 %3 %
Fuel costs
Personnel costs
Leasing, maintenance,depreciation, impairmentTraffic charges
Other costs
Ground handling andcateringOther rents
Tour operators
Sales and marketing
Hedging, currencies and sensitivities 30 Sep 2017
Fuel sensitivities 10% change without hedging
10% change with hedging
Hedging ratio
(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements) H2/2017 H1/2018Fuel EUR 47 million EUR 20 million 76% 69%
Currency split%
7–92017
7–92016
1–9/2017
1–9/2016 2016
Currency sensitivities USD and JPY(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements
for operational cash flows)
Hedging ratio for operational cash flows(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements)
Sales currencies 10% change without hedging
10% change without hedging
EUR 49 48 55 55 56 - -USD* 5 6 5 4 4 see below See below See belowJPY 13 12 10 9 9 EUR 19 million EUR 8 million 67%CNY 10 10 7 7 7 - -KRW 4 4 4 3 3 - -SEK 3 4 3 5 5 - -Other 16 16 16 17 16 - -
Purchase currencies
EUR 57 55 57 54 54 - -USD* 35 38 36 39 38 EUR 55 million EUR 20 million 66%Other 8 7 7 7 8
25 * Hedging ratio for USD basket. The sensitivity analysis assumes that the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar continue to correlate strongly with the US dollar.