Fine Dining Experience - Mercer and Associatesin 2006 the job turnover among fund managers was 51%,...
Transcript of Fine Dining Experience - Mercer and Associatesin 2006 the job turnover among fund managers was 51%,...
Fine Dining Experience
About us
• Darren Mercer – Managing Director
• Private Clients, Business Owners, Trustees & Charities
• Holistic approach to Wealth Management Planning
• Consistent and meticulous approach to high-quality in all aspects of business
• Experienced support team
Our Office
Client Services
Monday Market Bulletins
Investment Bulletins
Special Investment Bulletins
Client Services
Audio conferences and transcriptsInvestor Magazine
SJP TV Manager CDs
The Foundation
Total raised to date is over £24 million in 20 years
Mercer & Associates Charity Contributions
• St. Kentigern’s Hospice £ 1,000• Bodelwyddan Cancer Unit £ 1,000• Claire House Children’s Hospice £ 500• AT Society £ 1,000• The Movement Centre £16,475• The St. James’s Place Foundation £10,000• Motor Neurone Disease Association £ 500
Total Contributions £30,475
Today’s Sponsors
• £500 holiday voucher x 2• 6 bottles of wine x 2
Each case includes:– Castillo Perelada Cava Brut Reserva– Cotes du Rhone Roulepierre, Pierre Amadieu 2010– Macon Villages Domaine De Marechaudes 2010
Investing for Tomorrow
David Lamb
Managing Director
St. James’s Place Wealth Management
• What are the most important features of your investment approach?
• Is now a good time to invest?
• Independent Fund Managers?• Good (future) Performance?• Security for your money?• No conflict of interest?• Monitoring?• Transparency?• Governance – Who is your Investment Committee?• When should you invest?• When do you say No?
Our InvestmentPhilosophy
• Contract-out Investment Management
• ‘Manage’ the Fund Managers– Select– Monitor– Change
• Offer spread and choice of Fund Managers– Different Investment Styles
The St. James’s Place Approach
Appoint theFund Managers
Sets PerformanceObjectives
Aim for Top 25%
Risk Management& Strategy
Decisions:Change Firm?
Change Manager?No Change?
Input / advice fromStamford Associates
'Manages the Managers'
Investment Committee
Investment Choice
Is past performance the most important issue when selecting a fund manager?
Who is managing your fund?
What do you do if your fund manager leaves?
“…
in 2006 the job turnover among fund managers was 51%, meaning that one fund manager in two has changed jobs in the
last 12 months …”Source – Anthony Hilton, Evening Standard 19 Jan 2007
“Less than 1 in 5 managers in the UK have been working with their current fund for more than two years…”Source – New Star, Fund Adivser.com 23 March 2007
“Average fund manager jumps ship after 2½ years.”Source – Citywire 1 October 2007
Source: The Times 9 Dec 2011
19
Some Questions for 2012
The ‘big picture’ issues:• “Will the Eurozone
survive intact?”
• “Will the sovereign debt crisis hit Britain?”
• “Will the 30-year bull market in government bonds come toan end?”
• “Will the global economy continue to grow?”
The issues for Investors:• “Will UK interest rates rise?”
• “Will UK inflation fall?”
• “Will US and UK companies pay out higher dividends?”
• “Where is the ‘best’ place to invest?”
Sir Mervyn King, Governor BoE, December 2011
“Who knows what is going to “Who knows what is going to happen tomorrow, let alone happen tomorrow, let alone
next month?”next month?”
Source: Sunday Times 26 Feb 2012
Why own equities?
• Historically, in ‘real’ terms the major UK asset classes have grown by:– Shares 5.0% pa– Gilts 1.2% pa– Cash 1.0% pa
Source: Barclays Gilt Capital Report 2010. Data from 1899 to 2009. Past performance is not a guide to the future
Source: Financial Express. Stock market represented by the FTSE Allshare Index. Figures to 31/07/12. please be aware that past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise.
Take the long termview
Distribution of returns from UK equities since 1900Negative years
2006
Positive years
20041998199619881987
2007 19851976 19811962 19791961 19781956 1972
2000 1952 19651994 1951 1955 20051970 1947 1950 20031966 1945 1946 19991964 1927 1944 19971960 1926 1943 19951957 1923 1942 19931948 1913 1941 19921940 1912 1936 1991
2001 1939 1911 1935 19861990 1938 1910 1934 1984 19891969 1921 1909 1928 1982 19831949 1915 1908 1925 1963 19801937 1914 1906 1924 1953 1971 1977
2002 1930 1907 1905 1917 1933 1967 19681973 1929 1903 1902 1916 1919 1932 1959
1974 2008 1931 1920 1901 1900 1904 1918 1922 1958 1954 1975--50 to --40 -40 to --30 --30 to --20 --20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 50 to 60 60+
Percentage (%)
The worst year
The second worst
The best year
2009
2010
2011
Number of negative years 27%
Number of positive years 73%
Cumulative returns 4.5% p.a.
Source: FIL, Barclays Capital, Lipper. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Negative years Positive years
Source: Barclays Equity Gilt Study Guide. Data to end of 2011
UK Market -10 year rolling average annualised nominal return
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10 y
ear %
AG
R
“There are 700 million users of Facebook, if it was a country it would be the third largest in the world.”
Ian Butterworth, Aviva13 June 2012
Source: The Times 8 Mar 2011
World first as 3D printer creates JAW for woman, 83
Source: http://uk.news.yahoo.com 7 Feb 2012
10m alive in Britain today will live to be over 100
10 Fastest-Growing Economies
Annual Average GDP Growth (%)
ANGOLA 11.1 KAZAKHSTAN 8.2
CHINA 10.5 CHAD 7.9
MYANMAR 10.3 MOZAMBIQUE 7.9
NIGERIA 8.9 CAMBODIA 7.7
ETHIOPIA 8.4 RWANDA 7.6
2001 - 2010
Annual Average GDP Growth (%)
CHINA 9.5 VIETNAM 7.2
INDIA 8.2 CONGO 7.0
ETHIOPIA 8.1 GHANA 7.0
MOZAMBIQUE 7.7 ZAMBIA 6.9
TANZANIA 7.2 NIGERIA 6.8
2011 - 2015
Sources: The Economist, IMF
What is your approach to investment management?
How will you choose a manager to look after your investments?
Fine Dining Experience
Award Winning Wealth Management
Invesco Perpetual UK EquitiesGood news, bad news
This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use.
Presented by
Mitchell Fraser-JonesProduct Director
James McAuliffe
Client Director
Date
21st September 2012
Working With SJP, the Investment Committee and Stamford Associates
• Our Products
• The research Process
• The Investment Committee
• Ongoing research / Due diligence meetings
38
Economic outlook(The bad news)
40
The economic outlook remains challenging
• Economy has stabilised
• But recovery faces substantial risks— Private sector remains burdened by too much debt— Financial system is still fragile – deleveraging is a multi-year process— Fiscal deficits need fixing – sovereign risks loom large — Can the economy cope without monetary & fiscal support?
• This was not a “normal” recession & this is not a “normal” recovery
50447/L
i/M
F-J/
nst
itutional
-July
12
UK interest rates at an all time lowWhat would happen if rates normalised?
41
Source: Capital Economics as at 30 June 2012 .
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
UK Base Rate (%)
50447/L
i/M
F-J/
nst
itutional
-July
12
There is too much debt across the developed world, but particularly in the UK
Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis as at 3 July 2012.
42
Private Sector Debt/GDP Ratios (%)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Euro Area UK US Japan
Equity market outlook(The good news)
Not all stocks are cheap but, collectively, the UK stock market looks reasonably valued
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
UK Market PE Cyclically Adjusted PE
44
Source: Datastream to 29 February 2012.
50447/L
i/M
F-J/
nst
itutional
-July
12
Compared to bonds, equities look very attractive – equities have rarely yielded more than Gilts in post-war history
45
Source: Morgan Stanley Research – data to 30 June 2012.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
FTSE All-Share Dividend Yield (%) 10 year Gilt Yield (%)
46
Investment strategy summary
• Defensive growth opportunities— Resilient business models— Low earnings volatility— Growing dividend streams
• Large caps attractively valued— Quality, blue-chip companies – “the new sovereigns”— International exposure— Strong balance sheets
• Sticking to fundamentals— Active management— Focusing on absolute risks & returns— Taking a long-term view
47
Important information
This presentation is for the attendees of Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use.
The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Where Mitch Fraser-Jones has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco Perpetual investment professionals.
Where securities are mentioned in this document they do not necessarily represent a specific portfolio holding and do not constitute a recommendation to purchase or sell.
Further information on our products is available using the contact details shown.
Invesco Perpetual is a business name of Invesco Asset Management Limited30 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1AG, UKWebsite: www.invescoperpetual.co.ukAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority