Findings of the IPCC
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Asoka Abeygunawardana Executive Director , Energy Forum Board Member – Climate Action Network South Asia Findings of the IPCC-AR5
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Presented at the Climate Change Negotiator Training held in May 2014, in Sri Lanka.
Transcript of Findings of the IPCC
Asoka AbeygunawardanaExecutive Director , Energy Forum
Board Member – Climate Action Network South Asia
Findings of the IPCC-AR5
• IPCC – 1988
• IPCC: AR 1 - 1990 – UNFCCC
• IPCC: AR 2 - 1995 – Mitigation - Kyoto Protocol
• IPCC: AR 3 - 2001 – Adaptation
• IPCC: AR 4 - 2007 - Ultimate Objective (2°C) Bali/ Copenhagen/
Durban
• IPCC: AR 5 - 2014 - ??? – DRR/ Loss & Damage;• Migration/ Riots
IPCC
WG I (Physical science basis): 209 lead authors, 2014 pages, 54,677 review comments – Sept, 2013
WG II (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability): 243 lead authors, 2500 pages, 50,492 review comments- March, 2014
WG III (Mitigation of Climate Change): 235 coordinating and lead authors, 2000 pages, 38,315 review comments –April, 2014
CO2 emission – 60% since 1990CO2 Concentration – 45%Temperature – 0.9oCSea level rise – 19 cm
GHG Emissions – Past, Present and Future
WG1 12-129
Who is responsible?
What has happened since 1990?
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
20112014
20172020
20232026
20292032
20352038
20412044
20470.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Coal (x500x million t/y)
Gas ('00 million cubic m/y)
Oil (billion bbl/y)
Carbon Budget
CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (50%) 1,120 Gt CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (66%) 1,010 Gt
Pathways
ldnka msglsÍu ms<sn| fn,a jl%h
Understanding the Bell curve
Right to pollute …… ?
Bell Curve- Compensation …?
BAU – Growth Curve
Agenda for Developing World;=kajk f,dalhg kHdh m;%hla @
2015 2020
S - curve
CO2 emissions peak50% chancepeaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm
Fossil Fuel Addiction
REEE
High wind potential: over 6% of land Potential capacity- 20,000 MW. Lagoon areas: Potential capacity - 24,000 MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of AmericaBrown - 5.6< <8.8Blue - 8.8<
Wind Power
Dendro Power
Solar PowerRange • 4.2 to 5.6 kWh/m2/day on a horizontal
surface• 4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day
for a flat plate collector tilted to latitude• 7.32 kWh/m2/day With two axis tracking
one axis done manually for seasons
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
20312032
20332034
20352036
20372038
20392040
20412042
20432044
20452046
20472048
20492050
20512052
20532054
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Cost of Electricity
Mini hydro
Wind
Biomass - dendro
Coal considering scarcity
Coal with import tax & scarcity
Year
Uni
t pric
e (R
s/kW
h)
1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000bkaOk wdkhk yd idïm%odhsl wmkhk
f;a" rn¾" fmd,a wmkhkbkaOk wdkhk
jir
re ñ
,shk
Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber and Coconut exports
Issue 3- Stress on Foreign Currency Reservesm%Yakh 2- úfoaY úksuh ixÑ; u; we;s jk mSvkh
¨Total potential - 2000 MW¨Potential HEZ - 200 MW
Wave Power
OTEC
Energy Hub?
Exclusive Economic Zone - 200 nautical miles- 517,000 km2 7.8 times SL
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
New Major Hydro
Existing Major Hydro
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
,xúu ckk ie,eiau jd¾Isl ^2013-32& jd¾Isl úÿ,s ckkh
Source: CEB
Power
International Negotiations……!
Think Locally – Act Globally
Think Globally – Act Locally
