Findings from Polling of 18-29 Year Old Adults

September 2010

• The national survey was conducted August 24-30, 2010 and consisted of 700 phone interviews (500 landline and 200 cell phone) and 300 online interviews, for a total sample of 1,000 interviews with 18-29 year olds.

• The margin of error for the nationwide poll is 3.7%

• Five, 300 sample statewide polls were also conducted in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania between August 25-September 6, 2010. These polls were conducted entirely online, with the exception of 100 landline interviews conducted in Colorado.

METHODOLOGY

• Young adults are paying attention to the upcoming election (57%), and are closely attuned to pocket book issues like the economy, healthcare and college affordability.

• Despite deep concerns about the influence of corporate and special interests on our political system, they still plan to turn out in November, with 50% indicating that they are very likely to vote.

• A concern for both parties is that a plurality of this age group (36%) says that it doesn’t matter to them which party is in control of Congress.

• The issues this group is most focused on include unemployment, the cost and quality of education, the national debt and reducing our dependence on foreign oil.

• This voting bloc remains optimistic about their ability to bring change, as 83% say that their generation has the power to change the country, but they have soured on politics over the past two years, with 59% saying that they feel more cynical about the political process than they did in 2008.

• President Obama (56% favorable) and the Democratic Party (46%) still earn the highest favorability ratings, with the Republican Party (36%), Sarah Palin (28%) and the Tea Party (25%) trailing further behind.

• President Obama is still an asset with this group, as 50% say they are more likely to support a candidate that he endorses, while only 26% say the same about Sarah Palin (64% less likely) or the Tea Party (54% less likely).

• These young adults are also much more likely to support a candidate for U.S. Congress that supports investing in new technology to create jobs, seeks to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and who will provide leadership on key social issues like immigration, marriage rights and sexual health education.

KEY FINDINGS

LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING

Attention to November Elections: 2010 vs. 20062010 2006

Compared to 2006, young voters are paying slightly less attention to the upcoming midterm elections, but still, a firm majority of 58% indicates that they are paying attention to the current campaign season.

50 51

38

60 64 6273

0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall Dem Ind Rep All 2008voters

Obamavoters

McCainvoters

% Very likely to vote in November

Likelihood of Voting: % Very Likely by Party and 2008 Vote

Half of these adults say that they are very likely to vote this November, and when you add the somewhat likely, a full 77% are likely to vote. Among, those who voted in 2008, nearly two-thirds (64%) of indicate that they are very likely to vote again this cycle, with 90% saying they are likely to vote overall. Republicans appear to be more energized, as 73% of McCain voters (compared to 62% of Obama voters) and 60% of Republicans (compared to 51% of Democrats) indicate that they are very likely to vote. Enthusiasm is lower among Independents, as just 38% indicate that they are very likely to go to the polls on election day.

7

47

47

59

73

76

83

0 20 40 60 80 100

I am less hopeful about thecountry's future than I was two

years ago

Politicians don't talk about theissues that are important to me

I am more cynical about politicsthan I was two years ago

Eventually, I expect to be betteroff financially than my parents are

Big corporations have too muchpower in this country

As a group, young people have thepower to change things in this

country

% Agree

Though nearly 60% say that they are more cynical about politics than they were two years ago and over three-quarters (76%) say big corporations have too much power, young adults are still optimistic about the country and their ability to bring change. More than four in five (83%) still believe that young people have the power to change things in this country, nearly as high as the 89% who held that belief two years ago. Likewise, less than half agree that they are less hopeful about the country’s future than they were two years ago. They are also optimistic about their own future, with 73% believing that they will be better off financially than their parents.

Views on Politics and the Future

ISSUES AND CONCERNS

9

4049

30

60 63

23

5138

0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall White African American Hispanic

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Country Direction: Overall and by Race

Net -30-9 +40 +13

A plurality of adults under 30 believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction (49% wrong / 40% right), but they are not quite as pessimistic as older Americans. Much of this is due to the larger share of minorities among 18-29 year olds, as they are more upbeat about the country’s current path, while younger whites believe it is headed in the wrong direction by a 2:1 margin (60% wrong / 30% right).

5 10

511

4

147

11

9 23

12 23

15 29

34 54

0 20 40 60

Environment and global warming

Social issues / Gay rights /Abortion rights

Afghanistan

Immigration

Healthcare

The deficit and spending

Education and the cost of college

Jobs and the economy

Most important issue

2nd most important issue

Most Important Issue for Politicians to Address

When we asked these young adults to choose the most important two issues from a list of twelve ranging from healthcare to race relations to energy policy, the economy and jobs clearly emerged as the dominant issue across every demographic group, with over half of 18-29 year olds overall identifying it as one of their top two issues. The second most frequently cited issue – education and the cost of college – finished well behind, with 29% naming it as one of their top two issues, followed by the deficit and spending and healthcare.

11

35 7036 6938 7740 65

49 86

50 8666 93

74 96

0 20 40 60 80 100

The amount of racism in the country

Failing to take action on global warming or climate change

The United States suffering another major terrorist attack

Too many illegal immigrants in the country

America's dependence on foreign oil

The influence of corporations and special interests in our political system

The national debt

The level of unemployment in the country

Very concerned Somewhat concerned

When asked about concerns at the national level, the nation’s unemployment rate was the dominant issue, with nearly three-quarters of young adults very concerned (74%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates young people ages 16 to 24 have twice the unemployment rate as the rest of the country, and their anxiety is clearly showing here. Falling closely behind was fears over the national debt, which two-thirds cited as a serious concern (66%). Corporate influence in our political system and the country’s dependence on foreign oil were also major worries, with half very concerned. Failing to take action against global warming, illegal immigration, racism and terrorism were also sources of anxiety, but generated less intensity.

National Concerns

12

23 42

3364

37

7050

58

5170

54 80

55 77

0 20 40 60 80 100

Having to move back home withmy parents

Not having enough money tobuy a car, a computer or make

other major purchases

Losing my job

Finding a job that I enjoy

Not having enough money topay for school or student loans

Not having enough money tosave for a home or for

retirement

Finding a job that pays enoughfor me to be comfortable

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Personal Economic Concerns

When digging in to economic concerns, they are optimistic about their long term financial success but the tough economy has made 18-29 year olds anxious about their ability to find a job that will allow them to live comfortably, save for a home or retirement, pay off their student loans or that will allow them to enjoy work. At least half of these young adults are very concerned about these prospects, with at least 70% expressing some concern over them. Losing their job or not having enough to make major purchases also concern a strong majority, though are not as intense as the others.

13

13

23

30

32

0 10 20 30 40 50

Cutting taxes

Making job trainingand post-high school

education moreaffordable

Reducing the nationaldebt

Investing in jobcreation

Most Important Aspect of Economic Policy to Address

When posed with four options of what the current focus of our economic policy should be, investing in job creation and reducing the debt emerged as bigger priorities than making education more affordable or cutting taxes. Among whites, job creation and the national debt were particularly dominant, while minorities preferred job creation first and foremost, while giving equal weight to the debt and making education and job training more affordable.

14

7

9

38

44

0 20 40 60

Closing the achievement gapbetween races

Expanding access to pre-school and early childhood

education

Making college moreaffordable

Improving the quality ofeducation in elementary and

high schools

Most Important Aspect of Education Policy to Address

Despite their considerable concern over being able to pay for school and their student loans, young adults say that when it comes to education policy, our biggest priority should be improving the quality of education in elementary and high schools. This was particularly true among whites and those not currently in college, while those in college and minorities were more likely to focus on college affordability. Closing the achievement gap between the races finished below the other three options not only overall, but among African Americans and Hispanics as well.

15

15

40

43

0 20 40 60

Reducing our carbonemissions to help fight

climate change

Reducing our dependenceon foreign oil

Investing in newtechnologies to create

jobs

Most Important Aspect of Energy Policy to Address

When it comes to what the focus of our energy policy should be, investing in new technologies to create jobs and reducing our dependence on foreign oil were clearly preferred to focusing on combating climate change, both overall and across demographic groups. Reducing our dependence on foreign oil was most popular among whites, while African Americans and minorities were more likely to focus on new investments to create jobs.

16

55

39

56

3843

51 56

37

0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall White African American Hispanic

Support

Oppose

Support for Legalizing Gay Marriage: Overall and by Race

Net

+18+16 -8 +19

A strong majority of these young adults support legalizing gay marriage (55%). Hispanics are just as supportive of legalization as whites, but a narrow majority of African Americans are opposed. Democrats and Independents are also very supportive, though Republicans are against legalization by a more than 2:1 margin.

17

74

21

91

8

78

19

58

36

0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall Liberal Moderate Conservative

Safe sex and birth control Abstinence only

When 18-29 year olds are asked to choose whether they believe teaching about safe-sex and birth control or abstinence-only in schools is the best approach to reducing teen pregnancy, they side resoundingly with safe-sex and birth control (74% to 21%). This position spans ideologies, with even 58% of conservatives siding with safe-sex and birth control.

Best Approach to Reducing Teen Pregnancy: Teaching Safe Sex vs. Abstinence Only

VIEWS OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND FIGURES

3529 26 25

3034

70

155

43

28

18

0

20

40

60

80

Overall White African American Hispanic

DemocratIndependentRepublican

Democrats now hold a 9-point advantage on party identification (35% to 26%), which is down from the 18-point edge they held over Republicans on party ID (41% to 23%) in 2008. Most of this decline is due to whites moving towards Republicans. Whites now identify with Republicans by a 9-point margin (34% to 25%), while younger African Americans and Hispanics are still solidly Democratic.

Party Identification: Overall and by Race

4641

65

25

36

50

38

48

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2006 2010 2006

Favorable

Unfavorable

Net +5 +40

Shift in Party Favorability Since 2006

-14 -10

The Democratic Party

The Republican Party

Young adults still rate the Democratic party more favorably (46% to 41% unfavorable) than the Republican party (36% favorable to 50% unfavorable), though the Democrats’ current advantage represents a steep decline from the previous midterm elections in 2006 (65%). The Republicans’ favorability meanwhile has been virtually unchanged.

3428

36

70

1

28

16 15

63

2

73

24

0

20

40

60

80

Overall Dem Ind Rep

Democrats retain control Republicans take control Doesn't matter to me

Preferred Control of Congress: Overall and by Party

When asked whether they would prefer Democrats to keep control of Congress or for Republicans to assume the reigns, a plurality of 18-29 year olds say that they don’t really care. While those who identify with a party clearly express a preference, nearly two-thirds of Independents say they are indifferent to which party is in control.

33 33 33

44

27 2938

31 31

43

29 28

4231 27

0

20

40

60

80

Colorado Florida North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania

Democrats retain control Republicans take control Doesn't matter to me

Preferred Control of Congress: By State

Democrats fared a little better in separate polling conducted in five states, with solid pluralities preferring that they maintained control in four out of the five states. Still, in no state did a majority prefer the Democrats to retain control, and in Colorado, young adults were evenly split.

26

37 3730

35 36

22

35

43

0

20

40

60

80

Overall Whites Independents

FavUnfavCan't Rate

Net -11

Tea Party Favorability

-5 -13

Despite all its attention in the press, over a third of young adults (37%) are not familiar enough with the Tea Party to rate it. Those that do rate it do so negatively by an 11-point margin (37% to 26%), with both whites and Independents viewing it unfavorably.

56

38

69

27 28

59

3740 43 39

45

35

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2008 2010 2008 2010 2008

Favorable

Unfavorable

Net +18 +42

-31

Shift in Favorability Since 2008

-3 +4 +10

Obama Palin The United States Congress

Views of President Obama and Sarah Palin have both significantly eroded since September of 2008. However, Obama still earns strong ratings with these young adults rating him favorably by an 18-point margin (56% to 38%). Palin, meanwhile, is now viewed negatively by a more than 2:1 margin (28% to 59%). Interestingly, Millenials do not seem to be nearly as critical of Congress as older Americans, as a plurality rates it positively (43% to 39%), with views basically unchanged since September 2008.

27

37 34

49

14

36

0

20

40

60

80

Overall 2008 Obama voter

Pleased about what he's been able to accomplish

Disappointed in what he has done

Not yet sure

Net -10

Rating Obama’s First Two Years in Office

+35

After over 18 months in office, 18-29 year olds have mixed feelings on President Obama’s performance in office. A plurality of 37% say they are disappointed in what he has done, but nearly as many (34%) say that they have not yet decided. Those who voted for him give him much more favorable views, but even among this audience, less than half are happy with what he has accomplished (49% pleased).

27

46

27

4234

2430

42

28 27

3934 34

40

26

0

20

40

60

80

Colorado Florida North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania

Pleased about what he's been able to accomplish

Disappointed in what he has done

Not yet sure

Net -19

Rating Obama’s First Two Years in Office

-12

In three of the five states that we polled in, young adults’ ratings of President Obama’s job performance track closely with his ratings nationally. But two states emerge as exceptions: Colorado and Florida. Obama performs relatively well in the latter, with those under 30 in the state satisfied with what he’s done by an 8-point margin (42% pleased to 34% disappointed). It appears that the President may have his work cut out for him among younger adults in Colorado however, as they say they are disappointed in him by a 19-point margin (27% to 46% disappointed).

+8 -12 -6

MOBILIZATION

5042

26

64

26

54

3946

19

66

23

50

0

20

40

60

80

100

Obama Palin Tea Party Obama Palin Tea Party

More likely

Less likely

Net +8 -38 -28

Independents

Impact of Endorsement by Obama, Palin or Tea Party: Overall and Independents

-7 -47 -27

Overall

In terms of endorsements, President Obama will clearly be more of an asset with young voters this fall than Sarah Palin or the Tea Party. While half of 18-29 year olds say they are more likely to support a candidate supported by the President, just 26% say the same about Palin or the Tea Party. In fact, 64% say a Palin endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, and a solid majority (54%) feels the same about the Tea Party. Among Independents none of the three hold much sway, though Obama is viewed much more favorably than Palin or the Tea Party.

29

4070

4277

4981

5886

5889

0 20 40 60 80 100

Supports starting the process of pulling all U.S. troops out ofAfghanistan

Supports expanding safe-sex education in schools

Supports increasing investment in renewable energy sources andexpanding offshore oil exploration and the use of nuclear energy

to help reduce our dependence on foreign oil

Supports increasing government grants to help make college andpost-graduate education more affordable

Supports increasing investment in renewable energy sources tohelp reduce our dependence on foreign oil

Much more likely Somewhat more likely

The most popular of the sixteen policy proposals we tested involved investing in renewable energy to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and increasing funding to make college more affordable, with 58% saying they would be much more likely to support a candidate who took those positions. An all-of-the-above approach to energy was the third best testing proposal, but was not quite as popular as focusing solely on renewables. Interestingly, expanding safe sex education was the next best received, followed closely by withdrawing from Afghanistan. These five proposals were the most popular among both those most and least likely to vote.Policy Proposals: Top

Tier

30

21 50

28 57

28 65

3267

3467

0 20 40 60 80 100

Supports providing illegal immigrants with a path to citizenship

Voted for the new healthcare reform law

Supports a cap or tax on carbon emissions to help combatglobal warming

Supports increasing aid to foreign countries to help combat HIVand other deadly diseases

Supports ending the Bush tax cuts for those earning over twohundred fifty thousand a year to help reduce the deficit

Much more likely Somewhat more likely

In addition to the most popular proposals, two-thirds were more likely to support a candidate for Congress that called for ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, supported increasing foreign aid to combat deadly diseases and limiting carbon emissions through a carbon tax or cap. Unlike older Americans, a strong majority (57%) of young adults were also more likely to support a candidate that voted for the new healthcare law, with a plurality also more likely to support someone who advocated for providing illegal immigrants with a path to citizenship.

Other Policy Proposals