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Financial Strength, Security, Solvency in the P/C Insurance Industry
The Critical Role of State Guarantee Funds
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, PresidentInsurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038
Tel: (212) 346-5520 ♦ Fax: (212) 732-1916 ♦ [email protected] ♦ www.iii.org
National Conference of Insurance Guarantee FundsFt. Lauderdale, FL
April 25, 2008
Presentation Outline• Weakening Economy: Insurance Impacts & Implications
Implications of Treasury “Blueprint” for insurers• Profitability• Financial Strength & Ratings• Guarantee Funds, the Insurance Cycle & CATs• Underwriting Trends• Premium Growth• Rising Expenses• Capacity• Investment Overview• Catastrophic Loss• Shifting Legal Liability & Tort Environment• Regulatory and Legislative Environment
Q&A
Key Issues for Guarantee Fundsto Consider Over the Next 5 Years
• Soft Market Leads to Increased in ImpairmentsEffect occurs with a lag (perhaps as far as the next hard market)Need for assessments increases eventually as well
• Weakening Economy: Muted ImpactShould have little impact on impairments/need for assessments
• Profits: A Profitable Industry is in Everyone’s Best InterestProfitability through 2007 remained fairly strong, suggesting need for cycle-driven assessments is some ways off
• Investment Volatility is the NormHistorically insurers rarely fail/become impaired due to bad investments
• CatastrophesSurge in assessment could result if small, poorly capitaized insurers hit hard
• ReservesCurrently strongDeficiencies associated with insolvency/impairments
A STORMY ECONOMIC FORECAST
What a Weakening Economy & Credit Crunch Mean for
the Insurance Industry
What’s Going On With the US and Global Economies Today?
Fundamental Factors Affecting Global Economy in 2008• Puncture of Two Bubbles: Credit and Housing in US
Burst Bubble Asset Price DeflationSubprime mortgage market was first part of credit bubble to burst
• Credit Crunch: Some credit markets have effectively seized• Global Contagion Effect: Securitization of asset back securities, derivatives
based on those securities amplified via leverage produced contagion effectMany financial institutions around the world found they are exposedMany hedge funds, banks caught holding CDOs, credit default swaps and other instruments against which they borrowed heavily (sometimes 10:1)Some face margin calls, distressed selling of every type of asset except Treasuries
• Global Economic Impacts: Global Economic SlowdownGDP growth in US down sharply, employment falling; Deceleration abroad too“Decoupling” theory was naïve Crashing dollar is symptom of irresponsible US fiscal policy, trade deficits. IOUs are being redeemed for hard assets or states in corporationsNew bubbles forming in commodities and currencies
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
3.7%
0.8%
1.6%
2.5%
3.6%
3.1%
2.9%
0.6%
3.8%
4.9%
0.1%
2.1%
1.9% 2.0%
2.6% 2.
8% 2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
07:1
Q
07:2
Q
07:3
Q
07:4
Q
08:1
Q
08:2
Q
08:3
Q
08:4
Q
09:1
Q
09:2
Q
09:3
Q
09:4
Q
Real GDP Growth*
*Yellow bars are Estimates/Forecasts.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 4/08; Insurance Information Institute.
Economic growth is slowing dramatically
in 2008
Toward a New WorldEconomic Order
Source: Insurance Information Institute
1. Credit Crunch (incl. Subprime) Issue Will Ultimately Cost Hundreds of Billions Globally (est. up to $600B)
• Problem exacerbated by leveraged bets taken by some financial institutions therefore its reach extends beyond simple defaults
2. Heavy Toll on Capital Base of Some Large Financial Institutions Worldwide (e.g., Bear Stearns)
• Cash infusions necessary; Sovereign Wealth Funds important source• Federal Reserve forced into playing a larger role; must improvise
3. Most Significant Economic Event in a Generation• US economy will recover, but will take 18-24 months
4. Shuffling of Global Economic Deck; Economic Pecking Order Shifting
• China, oil producing countries hold the upper hand5. IOUs are Being Redeemed
• Stakes in hard assets/institutions demanded6. Good News: No Shortage of Available Capital
• Central banks are (generally) making right decisions; Dollar sinks
What’s Being Done to Fix the Economy? Impacts on Insurers
•Fed on 3/14 (via J.P. Morgan) provided Bear with cash after what is effectively a “run on the bank”•“Too Big to Fail” doctrine is activated•Fed acting to prevent broader loss of confidence•3/17: J.P. Morgan buys Bear for $236 million ($2/share); Price increased to $10 on 3/24
Fed Bailout of Bear Stearns
•Fed will swap up to $200B in bank holdings of mortgage back securities for Treasuries up to 28 days; Improves bank finances
Fed Debt Swap
•Reduces bond yields (65% - 80% of portfolio)•Potentially contributes to inflation longer run
Fed Rate Cuts
Impacts on InsurersEconomic Fix
Source: Insurance Information Institute
What’s Being Done to Fix the Economy? Impacts on Insurers
(cont’d)
•Treasury March 31 “Blueprint” affects all financial firms•For insurers, major recommendation is established of Optional Federal Charter under Office of National Insurance within Treasury
Regulatory/ Legislative Action (?)
•Keeps more people in their homes and hopefully paying HO insurance premiums•Abandoned and neglected homes have demonstrably worse loss performance
HousingBailout (?)
•Hope is that $168B plan boosts overall economic activity and employment (by 500,000 jobs) and therefore p/c personal and commercial exposures•Contributes to already exploding budget deficits—Washington may expand its search for people and industries to tax
Stimulus Package
Impacts on InsurersEconomic Fix
Source: Insurance Information Institute
Post-Crunch: Fundamental Issues To Be Examined Globally
Source: Insurance Information Institute
• Adequacy of Risk Management, Control & Supervision at Financial Institutions Worldwide
Colossal failure of risk management (and regulation)Implications for ERM?Includes review of incentives
• Effectiveness and Nature of RegulationWhat sort of oversite is optimal given recent experience?Credit problems arose under US and European (Basel II) regulatory regimesWill new regulations be globally consistent? Can overreactions be avoided?Capital adequacy & liquidity
• Accounting RulesProblems arose under FAS, IASAsset Valuation, including Mark-to-MarketStructured Finance & Complex Derivatives
• Ratings on Financial InstrumentsNew approaches to reflect type of asset, nature of risk
Summary of Treasury “Blueprint”for
Financial Services Modernization
Impacts on Insurers
Treasury Regulatory Recommendations Affecting Insurers
Source: Department of Treasury Blueprint for a Modernized Financial Regulatory System, March 2008.
• Establishment of an Optional Federal Charter (OFC)Would provide system for federal chartering, licensing, regulation and supervision of insurers, reinsurer and producers (agents & brokers)OFC insurers would still be subject to state taxes, provisions for compulsory coverage, residual market and guarantee funds OFC would specify specific lines covered by charter; Separate charters needed for P/C and Life
• OFC Would Incorporate Several Regulatory ConceptsEnsure safety and soundnessEnhance competition in national and international marketsIncrease efficiency through elimination of price controls, promote more rapid technological change, encourage product innovation, reduce regulatory costs and provide consumer protection
• Establishment of Office of National Insurance (ONI)Department within Treasury to regulate insurance pursuant to OFCHeaded by Commissioner of National InsuranceCommissioner has regulatory, supervisory, enforcement and rehabilitative powers to oversee organization, incorporation, operation, regulation of national insurers and national agencies
• Establishment of Office of Insurance Oversight (OIO)Department within Treasury to handle issues needing immediate attention such “reinsurance collateral”; OIO could focus immediately on “key areas of federal interest in the insurance sector”OIO: lead regulatory voice on international regulatory policyWould have authority to ensure states achieved uniform implementation of declared US international insurance policy goalsOIO would also serve as advisor to Treasury Secretary on major domestic and international policy issues
• UPDATE: HR 5840 Introduced April 17 Would Establish Office of Insurance Information (OII)
Very similar to OIOSource: Department of Treasury Blueprint for a Modernized Financial Regulatory System, March 2008.
Treasury Regulatory Recommendations Affecting Insurers (cont’d)
Insurance &The Economy
Important But Somewhat Muted Impacts
A Few Facts About the Relationship Between Insurance & Economy
• Vast Majority of Insurance Business is Tied to RenewalsApproximately 98+% of P/C business (units) is linked to renewalsA very large share of p/c insurance premiums are statutorily or de facto compulsory (e.g., WC, auto liability, surety, usually HO…)P/C insurers have marginal exposure impact due to economyMost life revenues and units are renewals, but some products (e.g., variable annuities are sensitive to market volatility)Life insurers who manage 401(k) assets seeing more loans and hardship withdrawals;
• Insurers are Sensitive to Interest RatesAbout 2/3 of P/C invested assets and 75% if Life assets are fixed incomeHistorically, yield on industry portfolios has tracked 10-year note closelyAll else equal, lower total investment gain implies greater emphasis on underwritingHistorically, industry’s best underwriting performances are rooted in periods when interests rates were low and/or equity market performance poor (1930s – 1950s, early 2000s gave rise to strong 2006/07)
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
5.2%
-0.9
%-7
.4%
-6.5
%-1
.5%
1.8%
4.3%
18.6
% 20.3
%5.
8%0.
3%-1
.6%
-1.0
%-1
.8%
-1.0
%3.
1%1.
1%0.
8%0.
4%0.
6%-0
.4%
-0.3
%1.
6%5.
6%13
.7%
7.7%
1.2%
-2.9
% -0.5
%-2
.9%
-2.7
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F
Rea
l NW
P G
row
th
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Real
GDP
Gro
wth
Real NWP Growth Real GDP
Real GDP Growth vs. Real P/C Premium Growth: Modest Association
P/C insurance industry’s growth is influenced modestly by growth
in the overall economy
Sources: A.M. Best, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 2/08; Insurance Information Inst.
Summary of Economic Risks and Implications for (Re) Insurers
•Reduced commercial lines exposure growth•Surety slump•Increased workers comp frequency
General Economic Slowdown/Recession
•Decreased capital gains (which are usually relied upon more heavily as a source of earnings as underwriting results deteriorate)
Stock Market Slump
•Lower investment income Lower Interest Rates
•Reduced exposure growth•Deteriorating loss performance on neglected, abandoned and foreclosed properties
Housing Slump
•Some insurers have some asset risk•D&O/E&O exposure for some insurers•Client asset management liability for some•Bond insurer problems; Muni credit quality
Subprime Meltdown/ Credit Crunch
Risks to InsurersEconomic Concern
New Private Housing Starts,1990-2014F (Millions of Units)
2.07
1.80
1.36
0.98
1.10
1.38 1.
45
1.54 1.56
1.51
1.48
1.35
1.46
1.29
1.20
1.01
1.19
1.47
1.62 1.64
1.57 1.60
1.71
1.85
1.96
0.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F08F09F10F11F12F13F14F
Source: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/07), except 2008/09 figures from 4/08 edition of BCEF; Insurance Info. Institute
Exposure growth forecast for HO insurers is dim for 2008/09
Impacts also for comml. insurers with construction risk exposure
New home starts plunged 34% from 2005-2007;
Drop through 2008 trough is 53% (est.)—a
net annual decline of 1.09 million units
I.I.I. estimates that each incremental 100,000 decline in housing starts costs
home insurers $87.5 million in new exposure (gross premium). The net
exposure loss in 2008 vs. 2005 is estimated at $954 million.
16.816.916.916.6
17.1
17.517.8
17.4
16.5
16.1
15.3
15.7
16.416.6 16.7
16.9
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F 14F
Weakening economy, credit crunch and high gas prices are hurting
auto sales
New auto/light trick sales are expected to experience a net
drop of 1.4 million units annually by 2008 compared with 2005, a decline of 9.5%
Impacts of falling auto sales will have a less pronounced effect on auto insurance exposure growth
than problems in the housing market will on home insurers
Auto/Light Truck Sales,1999-2014F (Millions of Units)
Source: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/07), except 2008/09 figures from 4/08 edition of BCEF; Insurance Info. Institute
US Unemployment Rate,(2007:Q1 to 2009:Q4F)
4.5% 4.5% 4.6%4.8% 4.9%
5.2%5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/08); Insurance Info. Inst.
Rising unemployment rate negative impacts workers comp exposure and could signal a temporary claim
frequency surge
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07*$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45Wage & SalaryDisbursementsWC NPW
*As of 7/1/07 (latest available).Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; I.I.I. Fact Books
Wage & Salary Disbursements (Payroll Base) vs. Workers Comp
Net Written Premiums
7/90-3/91
Shaded areas indicate recessions
3/01-11/01
Wage & Salary Disbursement (Private Employment) vs. WC NWP$ Billions $ Billions
Weakening wage and salary growth is
expected to cause a deceleration in workers comp
exposure growth
Inflation Rate (CPI-U, %),1990 – 2009F
4.9 5.1
3.0 3.22.6
1.51.9
3.3 3.4
1.3
2.5 2.3
3.0
3.8
2.2
4.03.4
2.42.82.9
2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 08F09F
*12-month change Feb. 2008 vs. Feb. 2007; Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Mar. 10, 2008; Ins. Info. Institute.
Inflation was just 2.2% in 2007 but is accelerating. Medical cost inflation, important in WC, auto liability
and other casualty covers is running far ahead of inflation. Rising inflation can also lead to rate inadequacy and adverse reserve development
Favored Industry Groups for Insurer Exposure Growth
•Fossil, Solar, Wind, Bio-Fuels, Hydro & OtherEnergy (incl. Alt.)
•Strong global demand, •Supplies remain tight…but beware of bubbles•Significant investments in R&D, plant & equip required
Natural Resources & Commodities
•Weak dollar, globalization persist; Cuba angle?Export Driven
•Consumer Staple Recession Resistant•Grain and land prices high due to global demand, weak dollar (exports)•Acreage Growing Farm Equipment, Transport•Benefits many other industries
Agriculture & Food Processing & Manufacturing
•Economic Necessity Recession Resistant•Demographics: aging/immigration Growth
Health CareRationaleIndustry
Sources: Insurance Information Institute
D&O/E&OTurbulent Markets,
Bankruptcies Can GiveRise to Suits
Shareholder Class Action Lawsuits*
*Securities fraud suits filed in U.S. federal courts; 2008 figure is current through March 31.Source: Stanford University School of Law (securities.stanford.edu); Insurance Information Institute
164202
163
231188
111173
242210215
497
267226237
182
118176
54
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
Pace of suits is up due in part to subprime issues,
housing collapse and market volatility.
Defendants include banks, investment banks,
builders, lenders, bond and mortgage insurers
Includes 44 suits related to subprime in 2007/08
A credit crunch creating a “contagion” effect resulting
in significant financial distress and bankruptcies in
other sectors could breed more securities litigation
Origin of D&O Claims for Public Companies, 2006
Customers & Clients, 4%Competitors,
6%
Employees, 25%
Government, 2%
Other 3rd Party, 22%
Shareholders, 40%
40% of D&O suits originate
with shareholders
Source: Tillinghast Towers-Perrin, 2006 Directors and Officers Liability Survey.
PROFITABILITYProfits in 2006/07 Reached
Their Cyclical Peak;
By No Reasonable Standard Can Profits Be Deemed Excessive
P/C Net Income After Taxes1991-2008F ($ Millions)*$1
4,17
8
$5,8
40
$19,
316
$10,
870
$20,
598
$24,
404 $3
6,81
9
$30,
773
$21,
865
$3,0
46
$30,
029
$61,
940
$49,
900
-$6,970
$65,
777
$44,
155
$20,
559
$38,
501
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F
*ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. **Return on Average Surplus; Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Inst.
2001 ROE = -1.2%2002 ROE = 2.2%2003 ROE = 8.9%2004 ROE = 9.4%2005 ROE= 9.6%2006 ROE = 12.2%2007 ROAS1 = 12.3%**
Insurer profits peaked in 2006
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F
US P/C Insurers All US Industries
ROE: P/C vs. All Industries 1987–2008E
2008 P/C insurer ROE is I.I.I. estimate.Source: Insurance Information Institute; Fortune
Andrew Northridge
Hugo Lowest CAT losses in 15 years
Sept. 11
4 Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
P/C profitability is cyclical, volatile and vulnerable
Personal/Commercial Lines & Reinsurance ROEs, 2006-2008F*
14.0%16.8%
12.3%
9.4%
13.2%
6.3%
9.8% 10.7%9.8%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%
Personal Commercial Reinsurance
2006 2007E 2008F
Sources: A.M. Best Review & Preview (historical and forecast).
ROEs are declining as underwriting
results deteriorate
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0607
E08
F
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry,1975 – 2008F*
1975: 2.4%
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6%
2006:12.2%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years 9 Years
*GAAP ROE for all years except 2007 which is actual ROAS of 12.3%. 2008 P/C insurer ROE is I.I.I. estimate.Source: Insurance Information Institute, ISO; Fortune
Insurance Stocks: Mixed Performance Compared to S&P 500 Index in 2008
-4.32%
-46.88%
-8.06%
-16.14%-4.49%
-6.69%
-14.04%
-5.31%
-50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%
S&P 500
All Insurers
P/C
Life/Health
Multiline
Reinsurance
Mortgage*
Brokers
*Includes Financial Guarantee.Source: SNL Securities, Standard & Poor’s, Insurance Information Inst.
Total YTD Returns Through April 18, 2008
Insurance stocks caught in financial services downdraft,
concern over soft market
Mortgage & Financial Guarantee insurers were
down 69% in 2008
Factors that Will Influence theLength and Depth of the Cycle
• Capacity: Rapid surplus growth in recent years has left the industry with between $85 billion and $100 billion in excess capital, according to analysts
All else equal, rising capital leads to greater price competition and a liberalization of terms and conditions
• Reserves: Reserves are in the best shape (in terms of adequacy) in decades, which could extend the depth and length of the cycle
Looming reserve deficiencies are not hanging over insurers they way they did during the last soft market in the late 1990sMany companies have been releasing redundant reserves, which allows them to boost net income even as underwriting results deteriorateReserve releases will diminish in 2008; Even more so in 2009
• Investment Gains: 2007 was the 5th consecutive up year on Wall Street. With sharp declines in stock prices and falling interest rates, portfolio yields are certain to fall Contributes to discipline
Realized capital gains are already rising as underwriting profits shrink, but like redundant reserves, realized capital gains are a finite resourceA sustained equity market decline (and potentially a drop in bond prices at some point) could reduce policyholder surplus
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
Factors that Will Influence the Length and Depth of the Cycle (cont’d)
• Sarbanes-Oxley: Presumably SOX will lead to better and more conservative management of company finances, including rapid recognition of deficient or redundant reserves
With more “eyes” on the industry, the theory is that cyclical swings should shrink• Ratings Agencies: Focus on Cycle Management; Quicker to downgrade
Ratings agencies more concerned with successful cycle management strategyMany insurers have already had ratings “haircut” over the last several years they way they did during the last soft market in the late 1990s; Less of a margin today
• Finite Reinsurance: Had smoothing effect on earnings; Finite market is gone• Information Systems: Management has more and better tools that allow
faster adjustments to price, underwriting and changing market conditions than it had during previous soft markets
• Analysts/Investors: Less fixated on growth, more on ROE through soft mkt.Management has backing of investors of Wall Street to remain disciplined
• M&A Activity: More consolidation implies greater disciplineLiberty Mutual/Safeco deal creates 5th largest p/c insurer. More to come?
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
ROE Cost of Capital
ROE vs. Equity Cost of Capital:US P/C Insurance:1991-2007
Source: The Geneva Association, Ins. Information Inst.
The p/c insurance industry achieved its cost of capital in 2005/6 for the first time in many years
-13.
2 pt
s
+0.2
pts
US P/C insurers missed their cost of capital by an average 6.7 points from 1991 to 2002, but on
target or better 2003-07
-0.1
pts
+1.7
pts
-9.0
pts
The cost of capitalis the rate of return
insurers need to attract and retain
capital to the business
+2.3
pts
Top Industries by ROE: P/C Insurers Still Underperformed in 2006*
30.7%30.3%
26.4%24.6%
24.2%22.6%
21.8%21.5%
20.9%20.9%
20.5%19.6%19.4%19.1%
14.9%15.4%
31.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Oil & Gas Equip., ServicesPetroleum Refining
MetalsFood Services
Household & Pers. ProductsPharmaceuticals
Industrial & Farm EquipmentMining & Crude Oil Prod.
Aerospace & DefenseChemicalsSecurities
Food Consumer Prod.Medical Prod. & Equip.
Specialty RetailersHomebuilders
P/C Insurers (Stock)All Industries: 500 Median
*Excludes #1 ranked Airline category at 65.1% due to special one-time bankruptcy-related factors.Source: Fortune, April 30, 2007 edition; Insurance Information Institute
P/C insurer profitability in 2006 ranked 30th out of 50
industry groups despite renewed
profitabilityP/C insurers
underperformed the All Industry median for the 19th consecutive
year
Advertising Expenditures by P/C Insurance Industry, 1999-2007E
$ Billions
$1.736 $1.737 $1.803 $1.708
$3.695
$4.323
$2.975
$2.111$1.882
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07ESource: Insurance Information Institute from consolidated P/C Annual Statement data.
Ad spending by P/C insurers is at a record high, signaling
increased competition
FINANCIAL STRENGTH &
RATINGSIndustry Has Weathered
the Storms Well, But Cycle May Takes Its Toll
Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969-2005/6
*Includes overstatement of assets.Source: A.M. Best.
Catastrophe Losses8.6%
Alleged Fraud11.4%
Deficient Loss
Reserves/In-adequate Pricing62.8%
Affiliate Problems
8.6%
Rapid Growth
8.6%
2003-2005 1969-2006
Deficient reserves,
CAT losses are more important factors in
recent years
Reinsurance Failure3.3%
Rapid Growth15.7%
Misc.9.0%
Affiliate Problems
7.2%
Sig. Change in Business
4.4%
Deficient Loss
Reserves/In-adequate Pricing37.6%
Investment Problems*
6.9%
Alleged Fraud8.2%
Catastrophe Losses7.7%
Cumulative Average Impairment Rates by Best Financial Strength Rating*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Average Years to Impairment
D
C/C-
C++/C+
B/B-
B++/B+
A/A-
A++/A+
Sources: A.M. Best: Best’s Impairment Rate and Rating Transition Study—1977-2002, March 1, 2004.
Insurers with strong ratings are far less likely to become impaired over
long periods of time. Especially important in long-tailed lines.
*US P/C and L/H companies, 1977-2002
P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2007E
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E
Com
bine
d R
ati o
00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82
Impa
irmen
t Rat
e
Combined Ratio after DivP/C Impairment Frequency
Impairment rates are highly correlated
underwriting performance and could reach near-record low in 2007
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
2006 impairment rate was 0.43%, or 1-in-233 companies, half the 0.86% average since 1969;
2007 will be lower; Record is 0.24% in 1972
Guarantee Funds, The Insurance Cycle & CATs
Assessment Activity Follows Cycle, CATs
Guarantee Fund Assessments,1979 - 2005 ($ Millions)
$46.
2$1
7.8
$49.
8$4
1.1
$30.
6$9
7.4
$292
.4$5
09.4
$903
.2
$433
.6$4
34.8
$66.
6$9
5.3 $2
36.3
$239
.2
$306
.4$7
12.8
$1,1
84.2
$874
.5$9
52.7
$916
.1
$179
.3
$713
.9
$497
.8$5
20.2
$464
.8
$383
.7
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Assessments set a record in 2002 (2nd to 1987 after adjusting
for inflation)
Assessments have both cyclical and catastrophe components, totaling
$11.2 billion from 1979-2005
Source: National Conference of Insurance Guarantee Funds; Insurance Information Institute
Guarantee Fund Assessments vs. Combined Ratio, 1979-2005
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Com
bine
d R
atio
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Gua
rant
ee F
und
Ass
essm
ents
($ M
ill)
Combined Ratio after Div
Guarantee Fund AssessmentsAssessments rise as
insurer underwriting results deteriorate—
but with a lag
Source: A.M. Best, NCIGF; Insurance Information Institute
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Note: Shaded areas denote hard market periods.Source: A.M. Best, NCIGF; Insurance Information Institute
Guarantee Fund Assessments as a Percentage of Net Written Premium
1984-87 2001-04
Guarantee fund assessments tend to
rise well during hard market periods (in the
wake of periods of poor performance)
UNDERWRITINGTRENDS
Extremely Strong 2006/07;Relying on Momentum &
Discipline for 2008
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F
Combined Ratios1970s: 100.31980s: 109.21990s: 107.82000s: 102.0*
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, III *Full year 2008 estimates from III.
P/C Insurance Combined Ratio, 1970-2008F*
115.8
107.4
100.198.3
100.7
92.4
98.6
95.6
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F
P/C Insurance Combined Ratio, 2001-2008F
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, III. *III estimates for 2008.
2005 figure benefited from heavy use of reinsurance which lowered net losses
2006 produced the best underwriting result
since the 87.6 combined ratio in 1949
As recently as 2001, insurers were paying out nearly $1.16 for
every dollar they earned in premiums
2007/8 deterioration due primarily to falling rates, but results still strong assuming
normal CAT activity
87.6
91.292.1 92.3 92.4 92.4
93.1 93.1 93.3
95.6
93.0
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
1949 1948 1943 1937 2006 1935 1950 1939 1953 1936 2007
Ten Lowest P/C Insurance Combined Ratios Since 1920 vs. 2007
Sources: Insurance Information Institute research from A.M. Best data. *2007: III Earlybird survey.
2007 was the 20th
best since 1920
The industry’s best underwriting years are associated with
periods of low interest rates
The 2006 combined ratio of 92.2 was the best since the 87.6 combined in 1949
-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520253035
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
$ B
illio
ns
Insurers earned a record underwriting profit of $31.7 billion in 2006, the largest ever but only the
second since 1978. Cumulative underwriting deficit from 1975 through 2007 is $422 billion.
Underwriting Gain (Loss)1975-2008F*
$10.
8 $22.
8 $33.
4
$36.
9
$18.
9
($5.0)($6.0)($5.3)
$0.4
($7.0)
8.9
-1.1-1.3-1.6
4.5
-1.20.1
3.5
8.6
6.5
($10)($5)$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F 09F
Res
erve
Dev
elop
men
t ($B
)
(3)(2)(1)012345678910
Com
bine
d R
atio
Poi
nts
PY Reserve DevelopmentCombined Ratio Points
Impact of Reserve Changes on Combined Ratio
Source: A.M. Best, Lehman Brothers estimates for years 2007-2009
Reserve adequacy has
improved substantially
PERSONAL LINES
103.
9
104.
5
103.
5
104.
9
99.8 10
2.7
104.
5
109.
9
110.
9
105.
3
98.4
94.3 96
.4
94.3 95
.6 98.6
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E 08FSource: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Recent strong results attributable favorable frequency
trends and low CAT activity
Personal LinesCombined Ratio, 1993-2007E
101.7101.3 101.0
99.5
101.1
103.5
109.5
107.9
104.2
98.4
94.395.1 95.5
97.5
99.5
101.3
90
95
100
105
110
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E 08F
Private Passenger Auto (PPA) Combined Ratio
Average Combined Ratio for 1993 to 2006:
101.0
Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecasts)
PPA is the profit juggernaut of the
p/c insurance industry today
Auto insurers have shown significant
improvement in PPA underwriting
performance since mid-2002, but results
are deteriorating.
Homeowners Insurance
117.7
158.4
113.6118.4
112.7
121.7
101.0
108.2111.4
121.7
109.3
98.394.2
100.1
91.795.5
99.5
113.0109.4
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E 08F
Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio
Average 1990 to 2006= 111.8
Insurers have paid out an average of $1.12 in losses for every dollar earned
in premiums over the past 17 years
Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecasts)
COMMERCIAL LINES
Commercial AutoCommercial Multi-Peril
Workers Comp
110.
3
110.
2
107.
6
103.
9 109.
7
112.
3
111.
1
122.
3
110.
2
102.
5 105.
4
91.2 94
.0 97.5
102.
0
112.
5
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E 08F
Recent results benefited from favorable loss cost trends, improved tort environment, low CAT losses, WC reforms and reserve releases
Commercial coverages have exhibited significant
variability over time.
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1993-2008F
Outside CAT-affected lines, commercial
insurance is doing fairly well. Caution is required in
underwriting long-tail commercial lines.
Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecasts)
112.
1
112 113 11
5.9 12
0.5
120.
1
106.
6
99.4
96.6
93.4
94
96.7
102.
2 105.
6 108.
9 112.
1
105.
9
101.
6
93.8
84.5
82.8
88.3
87.7
94.5 98
122.5
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E* 08F*
Comm Auto Liab Comm Auto PD
Commercial Auto Liability& PD Combined Ratios
Average Combined: Liability = 108.8
PD = 97.5
Commercial Auto has improved dramatically
Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecasts) *Includes both liability and property damage.
119.
0
119.
8
108.
5
125.
0
113.
1
115.
0 121.
0
116.
2
116.
1
104.
9
101.
9 105.
5
100.
7
116.
8
113.
6
115.
3
122.
4
115.
0
117.
0
97.3
89.0
97.7
93.8
83.6
93.5
98.0
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E* 08F*
CMP-LiabilityCMP-Non-Liability
Commercial Multi-Peril Combined (Liability vs. Non-Liability Portion)
Liab. Combined 1995 to 2004 = 113.8
Non-Liab. Combined = 105.2
CMP- has improved recently
Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecasts) *Includes both liability and property damage.
WORKERS COMPENSATION
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Workers Comp Calendar Year vs. Ultimate Accident Year – Private Carriers
101
97
111
110
107
103
95
101 10
6
119
131 14
0
135
123
88 87 87
101.
5
98.5
100
101 10
7 115 11
8 122
97
104
96
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06p 07E 08F
Calendar Year Accident Year
Percent
p Preliminary AY figure. Accident Year data is evaluated as of 12/31/2006 and developed to ultimateSource: Calendar Years 1994-2005, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; Calendar Year 2006p and Accident Years 1994-2006pbased on NCCI Annual Statement Analysis.Includes dividends to policyholders *2007/2008 figures are A.M. Best estimates/forecasts.
Workers Comp Combined Ratios, 1994-2008F*
Lost-Time Claims
-4.2 -4.4
-6.9
-4.5 -4.1 -3.9
-6.8
-9.2
0.3
-6.5
-4.5
0.5
-3.9
-2.3
-4.5
-6.6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06p
Cumulative Change of –52.1%since 1991 means that lost work
time claims have been cut by more than half
Accident Year
Percent Change
Workers Comp Lost-TimeClaim Frequency (% Change)
2003p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20061991-2005: Based on data through 12/31/2005, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policiesSource: NCCI
4.5%3.6%
2.8% 3.2% 3.5%4.1% 4.6% 4.7%
4.0% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0%
5.1%
7.4%
10.1%
8.3%
10.6%
8.2%
14.0%
7.4%
9.0%
6.8%
11.7%
7.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Change in Medical CPIChange Med Cost per Lost Time Claim
WC Medical Severity Rising Far Faster than Medical CPI
Sources: Med CPI from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, WC med severity from NCCI based on NCCI states.
3.5
pts
WC medical severity rose more than twice as fast as the medical CPI (8.8% vs. 4.0%)
from 1995 through 2006
Med Costs Share of Total Costs is Increasing Steadily
Indemnity55%
Medical45%
Source: NCCI (based on states where NCCI provides ratemaking services).
Indemnity52%
Medical48%
Indemnity41%
Medical59%1986
1996
2006p
PREMIUM GROWTH
At a Virtual Standstillin 2007/08
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
F20
08F
Note: Shaded areas denote hard market periods.Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
Strength of Recent Hard Markets by NWP Growth*
1975-78 1984-87 2001-04
Post-Katrina period resembles
1993-97 (post-Andrew)
2007: -0.6% premium growth was the first decline since 1943
Growth in Net Written Premium, 2000-2008F
*2008 forecast from A.M. Best.Source: A.M. Best; Forecasts from the Insurance Information Institute.
5.0%
8.4%
15.3%
10.0%
3.9%
0.5%
4.3%
-0.6% -1.0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F
P/C insurers are experiencing their slowest growth rates since 1943… underwriting results are deteriorating
Personal/Commercial Lines & Reinsurance NPW Growth, 2006-2008F
2.0% 3.5%
28.1%
-0.1%
-1.5%
1.4%
-2.3%-8.5%
-5.0%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
Personal Commercial Reinsurance
2006 2007E 2008F
Sources: A.M. Best Review & Preview (historical and forecast).
Net written premium growth is expected to be slower for commercial insurers and reinsurers
WEAK PRICING
Under Pressure in 2007/08, Especially Commercial Lines
$651 $6
68 $691 $7
05
$703
$685
$690 $7
24
$780 $8
23 $851
$847
$838
$847
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05* 06* 07*
Average Expenditures on Auto Insurance
*Insurance Information Institute Estimates/ForecastsSource: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Countrywide auto insurance expenditures are expected to fall 0.5%
in 2007, the first drop since 1999
Lower underlying frequency and modest
severity are keeping auto insurance costs in check
$418$440 $455$481$488 $508
$536$593
$668$729
$868
$787$835
$400$450$500$550$600$650$700$750$800$850$900
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05* 06* 07*
Average Expenditures on Homeowners Insurance**
*Insurance Information Institute Estimates/Forecasts**Excludes cost of flood and earthquake coverage.Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Countrywide home insurance expenditures rose an estimated
4% in 2006Homeowners in non-CAT zones have seen smaller increases than
those in CAT zones
Homeowners Insurance Expenditures as a % of Median Existing Home
Prices, 1995-2008F$1
17,0
00
$129
,000
$136
,000
$167
,600
$180
,200 $219
,000
$221
,900
$222
,700
$141
,200
$147
,300 $1
95,2
00
$218
,800
$156
,600
$122
,600
0.35
7%
0.35
9%
0.35
3%
0.34
6%
0.37
3%
0.35
9%
0.39
8%
0.39
7%
0.35
4%
0.34
5%
0.37
6%
0.37
1%
0.34
2%0.35
4%
($25,000)
$25,000
$75,000
$125,000
$175,000
$225,000
$275,000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06E 07F 08F
Med
ian
Exi
stin
g H
ome
Pric
e
0.31%
0.32%
0.33%
0.34%
0.35%
0.36%
0.37%
0.38%
0.39%
0.40%
0.41%
HO
Ins.
Exp
end.
As %
Hom
e Pr
ice
Median Existing Home Price Homeowners Insurance Expenditure as % Home Price
Record catastrophe losses and declining home prices are pushing HO insurance expenditures as a
% of median home price up
Source: National Association of Realtors, NAIC; Insurance Info. Institute calculations and HO expenditure estimates/forecasts for years 2005-2008.
Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004 – 1Q:2008)
-3.2
%
-5.9
%
-7.0
%
-9.4
%
-9.7
% -8.2
%
-4.6
% -2.7
%
-3.0
%
-5.3
%
-9.6
%
-11.
3%
-11.
8%
-13.
3% -12.
0%
-13.
5%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%1Q
04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute
Magnitude of rate decreases diminished greatly after Katrina but have grown again
KRW Effect
-0.1
%
Cumulative Commercial Rate Change by Line: 4Q99 – 1Q08
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers
Commercial account pricing has been trending down for 3+ years and is now on par with prices in late 2001, early 2002
Most Layers of Coverage are Being Challenged/Leaking
Retention$1 Million$2 Million
Primary
Excess
Reinsurance
Retro
$10 Million
$50 Million
$100 Million
Risks are comfortable taking larger retentions
Lg. deductibles, self insurance, RRGs, captives erode primary
Excess squeezed by higher primary
retentions, lower reins. attachments
Reinsurers losing to higher retentions,
securitization
Source: Insurance Information Institute from Aon schematic.
RISING EXPENSES
Expense Ratios Will Rise as Premium Growth Slows
Personal vs. Commercial Lines Underwriting Expense Ratio*
23.4%24.3%
25.0%27.1%
24.4%
24.5%24.8%25.6%
24.6%
25.6%24.7%
26.1%26.6%
27.5%
30.8%
27.0%26.3%26.4%25.6%
30.0%
31.1%
29.4%29.9%
29.1%
26.6%
25.0%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07E 08F
Personal Commercial
*Ratio of expenses incurred to net premiums written.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Expenses ratios will likely rise as premium growth slows
CAPACITY/SURPLUS
Accumulation of Capital/ Surplus Depresses ROEs
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
U.S. Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2007*
Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. *As of December 31, 2007
$ B
illio
ns
“Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations
Capacity as of 12/31/07 was $517.9B, 6.5% above year-end
2006, 81% above its 2002 trough and 55% above its 1999 peak.
The premium-to-surplus fell to $0.85:$1 at year-end 2007, approaching
its record low of $0.84:$1 in 1998
Annual Catastrophe Bond Transactions Volume, 1997-2007
$1,729.8
$966.9
$7,329.6
$4,693.4
$1,991.1
$1,142.8$1,219.5$846.1$984.8$1,139.0
$633.0
$0
$1,000$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ris
k C
apita
l Iss
ues
($ M
ill)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Num
ber o
f Iss
uanc
es
Risk Capital Issued Number of Issuances
Source: MMC Securities Guy Carpenter, A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Catastrophe bond issuance has soared in the wake of
Hurricanes Katrina and the hurricane seasons of 2004/2005,
despite two quiet CAT years
P/C Insurer Share Repurchases,1987- Through Q4 2007 ($ Millions)
$564
.0
$646
.9
$311
.0
$952
.4
$418
.1
$566
.8
$310
.1
$658
.8
$769
.2
$4,5
86.5
$5,2
66.0
$763
.7
$5,2
42.3
$4,3
70.0
$7,0
94.1
$22,322.6
$4,4
97.5
$1,5
39.9
$2,7
64.2
$2,3
85.6
$4,2
97.3
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Sources: Credit Suisse, Company Reports; Insurance Information Inst.
2007 share buybacks shattered the 2006 record, up 214%
Reasons Behind Capital Build-Up & Repurchase Surge
•Strong underwriting results•Moderate catastrophe losses
•Reasonable investment performance
•Lack of strategic alternatives (M&A, large-scale expansion)
Returning capital owners (shareholders) is one of the
few options available
2007 repurchases to date equate to 3.9% of industry surplus, the highest in 20 years
MERGER & ACQUISITION
Catalysts for P/C Consolidation Growing
in 2008
P/C Insurance-Related M&A Activity, 1988-2006
$2,4
35
$5,1
00
$19,
118
$40,
032
$1,2
49$4
86$2
0,35
3$4
25$9
,264
$35,
221
$55,825
$30,
873
$8,0
59$1
1,53
4
$1,8
82
$3,4
50$2
,780
$5,1
37
$5,6
38
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e ($
Mill
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Num
ber o
f Tra
nsac
tions
Transaction Values Number of Transactions
Source: Conning Research & Consulting.
M&A activity began to accelerate during the second
half of 2007
No model for successful
consolidation has emerged
Distribution Sector: Insurance-Related M&A Activity, 1988-2006
$542
$446
$1,9
34
$7$1,633
$2,7
20
$689
$60 $2
12
$944
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
96 97 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e ($
Mill
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Num
ber o
f Tra
nsac
tions
Transaction Values Number of Transactions
Source: Conning Research & Consulting.
No extraordinary trends evident
Distribution Sector M&A Activity, 2005 vs. 2006
Source: Conning Research & Consulting
Title9%Insurer
Buying Distributor
7%
Agency Buying Agency
51%
Other4%
Bank Buying Agency
29%
2005 2006
Title4%
Insurer Buying
Distributor7%
Agency Buying Agency
62%
Other2%
Bank Buying Agency
25%
Number of bank
acquisitions is falling
years
Motivating Factors for Increased P/C Insurer Consolidation
Motivating Factors for P/C M&As• Slow Growth: Growth is at its lowest levels since the late 1990s
NWP growth was 0% in 2007; Appears similarly flat in 2008Prices are falling or flat in most non-coastal markets
• Accumulation of Capital: Excess capital depresses ROEsPolicyholder Surplus up 6-7%% in 2007 and up 80% since 2002Insurers hard pressed to maintain earnings momentum Options: Share Buybacks, Boost Dividends, Invest in Operation, AcquireOption B: Engage in destructive price war and destroy capital
• Reserve Adequacy: No longer a drag on earningsFavorable development in recent years offsets pre-2002 adverse develop.
• Favorable Fundamentals/Drop-Off in CAT ActivityUnderlying claims inflation (frequency and severity trends) are benign
Lower CAT activity took some pressure of capital baseSource: Insurance Information Institute.
INVESTMENT OVERVIEW
More Pain, Little Gain
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain1
$ Billions
$35.4
$42.8$47.2
$52.3
$44.4
$36.0
$45.3$48.9
$59.4$55.8
$63.6$56.9
$51.9
$57.9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05* 06 071Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. 2006 figure consists of $52.3B net investment income and $3.4B realized investment gain.*2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B.
Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Investment rose in 2007 but are just 9.8% higher than what they were
nearly a decade earlier in 1998
Property/Casualty Industry Investment Results, 1994-2007
$33.
7
$36.
8
$38.
0
$41.
5
$37.
1
$36.
7
$38.
7
$39.
6 $49.
5
$52.
3
$54.
6
$1.7
$6.0 $9
.2 $10.
8
$18.
0
$13.
7 $16.
9
$6.9 $6
.9 $9.3
$9.7
$3.5
$9.0
$40.
8
$38.
6
$39.
9
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02** 03 04 05 06 07E
Bill
ions
Capital Gains/LossesInvestment Income
*Primarily interest, stock dividends, and realized capital gains and losses.**Not shown: $1.1B capital loss in 2002.2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
$52.3
$57.7
$44.0
$35.6
$45.6$48.9
$59.2$55.8
$63.6Realized capital gains rising as underwriting
results slip$57.9
US P/C Net Realized Capital Gains,1990-2007 ($ Millions)
$2,8
80 $4,8
06
$9,8
93
$1,6
64
$5,9
97
$9,2
44 $10,
808
$13,
016 $1
6,20
5
$6,6
31
-$1,
214
$6,6
10 $8,9
71
$18,019
$3,5
24
$9,7
01
$9,1
25
$9,8
18
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Realized capital gains rebounded strongly in 2004/5
but fell sharply in 2006 despite strong stock market
as insurers “bank” their gains. Rising again in 2007 as underwriting results slip
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Ibbotson Associates, Insurance Information Institute. *Through April 23, 2008.
Total Returns for Large Company Stocks: 1970-2008*
S&P 500 was up 3.5% in 2007, down 6.0% YTD 2008*
Markets were up in 2007 for the 5th consecutive year; 2008 could be first down
year since 2002
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
P-C Inv Income/Inv Assets 10-Year Treasury Note
P/C Investment Income as a % of Invested Assets Follows 10-Year US T-Note
*As of January 2008 month-end.Sources: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System; A.M.Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Investment yield historically tracks 10-year Treasury note quite closely
CATASTROPHICLOSS
What Will 2008 Bring?
Most of US Population & Property Has Major CAT Exposure
Is Anyplace
Safe?
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses*$7
.5$2
.7$4
.7$2
2.9
$5.5 $1
6.9
$8.3
$7.4
$2.6 $1
0.1
$8.3
$4.6
$26.
5$5
.9 $12.
9 $27.
5
$6.7
$3.1
$100
.0
$61.
9
$9.2
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0708
:Q1
20??
*Excludes $4B-$6b offshore energy losses from Hurricanes Katrina & Rita. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.Source: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$ Billions
2006/07 were welcome respites. 2005 was by far the worst year ever for insured catastrophe losses in the US, but the worst has yet to come.
$100 Billion CAT year is coming soon
States With Largest Insured Catastrophe Losses in 2007
$ Millions
$1,230
$747 $677
$320$223 $202 $200 $200$262$270$272
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
CA MN TX GA IL OK KS MO NY CO ALSource: PCS/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
2007 CAT STATS•1.18 million CAT claims across 41 states arising•23 catastrophic events
Distribution of 2007 US CAT Losses, by Type and Insured Loss
Personal, $4.4 , 68%
Commercial, $1.3 , 20%
Vehicle, $0.8 , 12%Personal (home, condo, rental, contents etc.)
accounted for 68% of all US insured
CAT losses paid in 2007. CAT claim
count was 1.18 million.
Source: PCS division of ISO.
$ Billions
$14.3$34.4$40.2$47.7$63.6$68.4$108.3$132.6$138.4$154.4$168.7
$420.7$502.5$538.4
$2,260.0$2,294.4
$2,589.3
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
Sep. 12-18, 1979 Hollywood Hills, CA
Oct. 9-10, 1982 Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange Cos., CA
Nov. 16-17, 1980 Bradbury, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Sunland,Carbon Canyon, Lake Elsinore, CA
Oct. 23-25, 1978 Los Angeles, Ventura Cos., CA
May 17-20, 1985 Florida
Jul. 26-27, 1977 Santa Barbara, Montecito, CA
Nov. 24-30, 1980 Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Orange,Riverside, San Diego Cos., CA
Sep. 22-30, 1970 Oakland-Berkeley Hills, CA
Jun. 23-28, 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Complex, AZ
July 2007: Lake Tahoe, CA**
May 10-16, 2000 Cerro Grande, NM
Jun. 27-Jul. 2, 1990 Santa Barbara County, CA
Oct. 27-28, 1993 Orange Co., CA
Nov. 2-3, 1993 Los Angeles Co., CA
Oct. 2007: Southern CA Fires*
Oct. 2003: Southern CA Fires
Oct. 20-21, 1991: Oakland, Alameda Cos., CA
Insured Losses (Millions 2007 $)
Top Catastrophic Wildland Fires In The United States, 1970-2007
Fourteen of the top 17
catastrophic wildfires since
1970 occurred in California
*Estimate from CA Insurance Dept., Jan. 10, 2008. Source: ISO's Property Claim Services Unit; California Department of Insurance; Insurance Information Institute.
Inflation-Adjusted U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses By Cause of Loss,
1987-2006¹Fire, $6.6 , 2.2%
Tornadoes, $77.3 , 26.0%
All Tropical Cyclones, $137.7 ,
46.3%
Civil Disorders, $1.1 , 0.4%
Utility Disruption, $0.2 , 0.1%
Water Damage, $0.4 , 0.1%Wind/Hail/Flood,
$9.3 , 3.1%
Earthquakes, $19.1 , 6.4%
Winter Storms, $23.1 , 7.8%
Terrorism, $22.3 , 7.5%
Source: Insurance Services Office (ISO)..
1 Catastrophes are all events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2006 dollars. Catastrophe threshold changed from $5 million to $25 million beginning in 1997. Adjusted for inflation by the III.2 Excludes snow. 3 Includes hurricanes and tropical storms. 4 Includes other geologic events such as volcanic eruptions and other earth movement. 5 Does not include flood damage covered by the federally administered National Flood Insurance Program. 6 Includes wildland fires.
Insured disaster losses totaled $297.3 billion from
1987-2006 (in 2006 dollars). Wildfires accounted for
approximately $6.6 billion of these—2.2% of the total.
Global Insured Catastrophe Losses 1970-2007 ($ 2007)
$2.4 $5.0
$5.8 $9.1
$5.0
$6.4
$5.6
$5.4 $1
1.3
$7.0
$4.2 $8
.9$1
0.3
$6.8 $1
1.6
$5.6 $1
5.4
$12.
4 $23.
7$2
7.9
$24.
4 $42.
5$1
8.4 $3
4.4
$25.
6$1
8.0
$11.
2 $24.
9$4
3.1
$15.
0$4
1.8
$16.
7$2
1.6
$52.
8$1
13.9
$16.
9 $27.
6
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Source: Swiss Re Sigma No.1/08, Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2007
$ Billions
Impact of Hurricane Katrina on 2005
losses was dramatic
Global Insured Catastrophe Losses by Region, 2001-2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Seas/SpaceAfricaOceania/AustraliaSouth AmericaAsiaEuropeNorth America*
Notes: 2001-03 figures for N. America include US only. 2001 figure includes only property losses from 9/11. Source: Insurance Information Institute compiled from Swiss Re sigma issues.
North America accounted for 70% of global
catastrophe losses 2001-2007
$ Billions
The 2008 Hurricane Season:
Preview to Disaster?
Outlook for 2008 Hurricane Season: 60% Worse Than Average
150NA96.2Accumulated Cyclone Energy975Intense Hurricane Days
160%275%100%Net Tropical Cyclone Activity
472.3Intense Hurricanes4047.524.5Hurricane Days8145.9Hurricanes
80115.549.1Named Storm Days15289.6Named Storms
2008F2005Average*
*Average over the period 1950-2000.Source: Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, April 9, 2007.
Landfall Probabilities for 2008 Hurricane Season: Above Average
Above Average
NACaribbean
44%30%Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle to Brownsville
45%31%US East Coast Including Florida Peninsula
69%52%Entire US East & Gulf Coasts
2008FAverage*
*Average over the past century.Source: Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, April 9, 2007.
REINSURANCE MARKETS
Reinsurance Prices are Falling in Non-Coastal Zones, Casualty Lines
Share of Losses Paid by Reinsurers, by Disaster*
30%25%
60%
20%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Hurricane Hugo(1989)
Hurricane Andrew(1992)
Sept. 11 TerrorAttack (2001)
2004 HurricaneLosses
2005 HurricaneLosses
*Excludes losses paid by the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, a FL-only windstorm reinsurer, which was established in 1994 after Hurricane Andrew. FHCF payments to insurers are estimated at $3.85 billion for 2004 and $4.5 billion for 2005.Sources: Wharton Risk Center, Disaster Insurance Project; Insurance Information Institute.
Reinsurance is playing an increasingly
important role in the financing of mega-CATs; Reins. Costs
are skyrocketing
US Reinsurer Net Income& ROE, 1985-2007*
$1.9
4
$2.0
3
$1.9
5 $3.7
1$4
.53
$5.4
3$1
.47
$1.9
9
$1.3
1 $3.1
7$3
.41
$2.5
1$9
.68
$7.9
6
($2.98)
$0.1
2
$1.9
5
$1.3
8$1
.22
$1.8
7
$1.1
7 $2.5
2$1
.79
($4)
($2)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07*
Net
Inco
me
($ B
ill)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
RO
E
Net Income ROE
Source: Reinsurance Association of America. *2007 ROE figure is III estimate based return on average 2007 surplus.
Reinsurer profitability rebounded post-Katrina
but is now falling
Shifting Legal Liability & Tort
EnvironmentIs the Tort Pendulum
Swinging Against Insurers?
Bad Year for Tort Kingpins*(Continued)
“King of Class Actions” Bill Lerach•Former partner in class action firm Milberg Weiss•Admitted felon. Guilty of paying 3 plaintiffs $11.4 million in 150+ cases over 25 years & lying about it repeatedly to courts•Will serves 1-2 years in prison and forfeit $7.75 million; $250,000 fine
“King of Torts” Dickie Scruggs•Won billions in tobacco, asbestos and Katrina litigation•Pleaded guilty for attempting to offer a judge $40,000 bribe to resolve attorney fee allocation from Katrina litigation in his firm’s favor. His son/others guilty on related charges•Could get 5 years in prison, $250,000 fine
Sour
ce: S
an D
iego
Uni
on T
ribun
e, 9
/19/
07So
urce
: Wal
l Stre
et Jo
urna
l, 3/
15/0
7
Bad Year for Tort Kingpins*(Continued)
“King of Class Actions” Melvyn Weiss•Former partner in class action firm Milberg Weiss; Earned $251 million in legal fees•Pled guilty to federal charges of racketeering and conspiracy for paying kickbacks to professional plaintiffs•Will serve 18-33 months in prison, pay $9.75 million in restitution; $250,000 fine
Sour
ce: W
all S
treet
Jour
nal,
3/24
/07
This Space Available
$17.0$49.6 $58.7
$85.6$17.1
$51.0$70.9
$85.6
$5.2
$20.4
$30.0
$45.5
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
1980 1990 2000 2006
Commercial Lines Personal Lines Self (Un)Insured
Bill
ions
Total = $39.3 Billion
*Excludes medical malpracticeSource: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, 2007 Update on US Tort Cost Trends.
Total = $121.0 Billion
Total = $159.6 Billion
Total = $216.7 Billion
Personal, Commercial & Self (Un) Insured Tort Costs*
Tort System Costs, 1950-2009E
$1.8 $5.4 $7.9$13.9$20.0
$83.7
$130.2
$179.2
$246.0$265
$277
$158.5
$247.0
$42.7
$3.4
0.62%0.82%
1.03%
1.34%1.22%
1.98%2.14%
1.82% 1.83%1.83%1.87%
2.24%2.24%
1.53%
1.11%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 03 06 08E 09E
Tor
t Sys
tem
Cos
ts
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Tor
t Cos
ts a
s % o
f GD
P
Tort Sytem Costs Tort Costs as % of GDP
Source: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, 2007 Update on U.S. Tort Costs as % of GDP
After a period of rapid escalation,
tort system costs as a % of GDP are
now falling
The Nation’s Judicial Hellholes (2007)
Source: American Tort Reform Association; Insurance Information Institute
TEXASRio Grande Valley and Gulf Coast
South Florida
ILLINOISCook County West Virginia
Some improvement in “Judicial
Hellholes” in 2007
Watch ListMadison County, ILSt. Clair County, IL
Northern New Mexico
Hillsborough County, FLDelawareCalifornia
Dishonorable MentionsDistrict of Columbia
MO Supreme CourtMI Legislature
GA Supreme CourtOklahoma
NEVADAClark County (Las Vegas)
NEW JERSEYAtlantic County (Atlantic City)
Business Leaders Ranking of Liability Systems for 2007
Best States1. Delaware2. Minnesota3. Nebraska4. Iowa5. Maine6. New Hampshire7. Tennessee8. Indiana9. Utah10. Wisconsin
Worst States41. Arkansas42. Hawaii43. Alaska44. Texas45. California46. Illinois47. Alabama48. Louisiana49. Mississippi50. West Virginia
Source: US Chamber of Commerce 2007 State Liability Systems Ranking Study; Insurance Info. Institute.
New in 2007ME, NH, TN,
UT, WI
Drop-OffsND, VA, SD,
WY, ID
NewlyNotorious
AK
RisingAbove
FL
Midwest/West has mix of good and bad states
REGULATORY & LEGISLATIVE
ENVIRONMENT
Isolated Improvements, Mounting Zealoutry
Legal, Legislative &Regulatory Issues
• Florida “Seeing the Light”: State finally recognizing that it is overexposed with its 2007 legislation having failed to deliver on political promises made
Size of FL Hurricane Catastrophe Fund may be scaled backPrivate reinsurance sector role may expand
• Massachusetts Auto: Reforms have led to more competition, lower rates• Optional Federal Chartering: Recommended in Treasury plan; Still divisive issue• Risk Rentention Groups: Could be expanded to allow property RRGs• Tax Issue: Treatment of locales like Bermuda; Effort to “level the playing field”• National CAT Plan: Hearing in February and in 2007, but no current catalyst• Flood Reform: Likely to happen, but MS Rep. Gene Taylor unsuccessful pushing
for NFIP to cover wind. Sen. Clinton supports idea.• Antitrust: Though Trent Lott is gone, some may still push for scaling back of M-F;
States push own laws (FL)• Profusion of Quasi-Regulators: AGs, Governors, Congressional representatives• Bad Faith Legislation: Attempts by trial lawyers and legislative allies to
open new tort channels (WA referendum, Florida SB 2862) Source: III
PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS & P/C PROFITABILITY
Political Quiz
• Does the P/C insurance industry perform better (as measured by ROE) under Republican or Democratic administrations?
• Under which President did the industry realize its highest ROE (average over 4 years)?
• Under which President did the industry realize its lowest ROE (average over 4 years)?
P/C Insurance Industry ROE byPresidential Administration,1950-2008*
15.10%10.45%
8.93%8.65%
8.35%7.98%
7.68%6.98%6.97%
5.43%5.03%
4.83%4.43%
3.55%
16.43%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
CarterReagan II
G.W. Bush IINixon
Clinton IG.H.W. Bush
Clinton IIReagan I
Nixon/FordTruman
Eisenhower IEisenhower II
G.W. Bush IJohnson
Kennedy/Johnson
*ROE for 2007/8 estimated by III. Truman administration ROE of 6.97% based on 3 years only, 1950-52.Source: Insurance Information Institute
OVERALL RECORD: 1950-2008*
Republicans 8.92%
Democrats 8.00%
Party of President has marginal bearing on profitability of P/C insurance industry
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 0608
E
P/C Insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Party Affiliation,
1950–2008EBLUE = Democratic President RED = Republican President
Source: Insurance Information Institute
Tru
man
Nixon/FordKennedy/ Johnson
Eisenhower Carter Reagan/Bush Clinton Bush
Summary• Results were excellent in 2006/07; Overall profitability reached
its highest level (est. 13-14%) since 1988Strong 2007 but ROEs slipping; Momentum for 2008
• Underwriting results were aided by lack of CATs & favorable underlying loss trends, including tort system improvements
• Property cat reinsurance markets past peak & more competitive• Premium growth rates are slowing to their levels since WW II;
Commercial leads decreases. Firming in personal lines?• Rising investment returns insufficient to support deep soft
market in terms of price, terms & conditions as in 1990s• How/where to deploy/redeploy capital??• Major Challenges:
Slow Growth Environment Ahead; Cyclical & EconomicMaintaining price/underwriting disciplineManaging variability/volatility of resultsManaging regulatory/legislative activism
Insurance Information Institute On-Line
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