Financial strategy documentation · 2018-06-30 · Financial strategy documentation 2018 Regional...

Financial strategy documentation

2018 Regional Transportation Plan

oregonmetro.gov/rtp

An explanation of methods to develop the 2018-2040 financial forecast

PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT

June 29, 2018 This draft report is subject to review and consultation with federal partners.

2018 Regional Transportation Plan Appendix H

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Metro respects civil rights

Metro fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that requires that no person be excluded from the participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be otherwise subjected to discrimination on the basis of race, color or national origin under any program or activity for which Metro receives federal financial assistance.

Metro fully complies with Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act that requires that no otherwise qualified individual with a disability be excluded from the participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination solely by reason of their disability under any program or activity for which Metro receives federal financial assistance.

If any person believes they have been discriminated against regarding the receipt of benefits or services because of race, color, national origin, sex, age or disability, they have the right to file a complaint with Metro. For information on Metro’s civil rights program, or to obtain a discrimination complaint form, visit www.oregonmetro.gov/civilrights or call 503-797-1536.

Metro provides services or accommodations upon request to persons with disabilities and people who need an interpreter at public meetings. If you need a sign language interpreter, communication aid or language assistance, call 503-797-1700 or TDD/TTY 503-797-1804 (8 a.m. to 5 p.m. weekdays) 5 business days before the meeting. All Metro meetings are wheelchair accessible. For up-to-date public transportation information, visit TriMet’s website at www.trimet.org.

Metro is the federally mandated metropolitan planning organization designated by the governor to develop an overall transportation plan and to allocate federal funds for the region.

The Joint Policy Advisory Committee on Transportation (JPACT) is a 17-member committee that provides a forum for elected officials and representatives of agencies involved in transportation to evaluate transportation needs in the region and to make recommendations to the Metro Council. The established decision-making process assures a well-balanced regional transportation system and involves local elected officials directly in decisions that help the Metro Council develop regional transportation policies, including allocating transportation funds.

Project web site: oregonmetro.gov/rtp

The preparation of this report was financed in part by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration. The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration.


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Appendix H – DRAFT 2018 Regional Transportation Plan Financial Strategy Documentation Page 1 of 61

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction and Summary ..................................................................................................................... 3

1.1 Financial/Fiscal Constraint Overview .................................................................................................. 3

1.2 Reasonable Availability of Expected Funds ......................................................................................... 4

1.3 Year of Expenditure (YOE$) or Constant Year $ .................................................................................. 5

1.4 Constrained Revenue Forecast Summary ........................................................................................... 7

2.0 Economic Conditions ............................................................................................................................. 11

2.1 Economic Summary .......................................................................................................................... 11

2.2 The National Economic Picture ......................................................................................................... 11

2.3 The State of Oregon Economic Picture ............................................................................................. 12

2.4 The Metro Regional Picture .............................................................................................................. 15

2.5 Economic Indicators Summary.......................................................................................................... 18

3.0 Revenue Assumptions ........................................................................................................................... 20

3.1 Revenue Growth and Inflation .......................................................................................................... 20

3.2 Federal Revenues Allocated to Metro .............................................................................................. 20

3.3 Federal Transit Revenues (FTA based revenue allocations) ............................................................. 21

3.4 Federal Funds Allocated to Local Agencies through the ODOT Enhance Program ........................... 22

3.5 Federal Fund Appropriations to the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) ...................... 22

3.6 ODOT Operations Maintenance and Pavement (Fix-It) Program ..................................................... 25

3.7 State Revenue Growth Assumptions ................................................................................................ 28

3.8 Oregon HB2017 ................................................................................................................................. 29

3.9 Local Revenue Assumptions.............................................................................................................. 31

4.0 Revenue Source Summary .................................................................................................................... 35

4.1 Revenue Source Scenarios and Overview ......................................................................................... 35

4.2 Federal Revenue Forecasts (by fund type or funding program) ....................................................... 38

4.3 State and Federal Combined Revenue Forecasts ............................................................................. 42

4.4 Summary of State and Federal Combined Constrained Revenues ................................................... 47

4.5 Local Revenues .................................................................................................................................. 47

4.6 Constrained Revenue Sources Split Across RTP Division Years ........................................................ 49

5.0 Revenue Programs Glossary ................................................................................................................. 53


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5.1 Key Federal Revenues ....................................................................................................................... 53

5.2 Federal Transit Agency Sourced Funding .......................................................................................... 58

References .................................................................................................................................................. 61


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1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

1.0 Introduction and Summary ...................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

1.1 Financial/Fiscal Constraint Overview ................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

1.2 Reasonable Availability of Expected Funds .......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

1.3 Year of Expenditure (YOE$) or Constant Year $ ................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

1.4 Constrained Revenue Forecast Summary ............................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

Thisappendixsummarizesthefinancialplanningcomponenttothe2018RegionalTransportationPlan(RTP)forthethree‐countyMetroregion.AspartoftheRTPdevelopment,federalregulationsrequireafinancially/fiscallyconstrainedRTPthatclearlydemonstratethattheincludedtotalprojectcostsdonotexceedthetotalrevenuelevelreasonablyexpectedtobeavailabletothegreaterPortlandregionoverthelifeoftheplan.

1. TheFinancialPlanappendixisdividedintofiveprimarysectionswhichincludesthefollowing:

2. Introduction:Ashortintroductionandbriefdiscussionsoffiscalconstraint,definingReasonablyExpectedtobeAvailablefunding,andYearofExpendituremethodologyisincluded.

3. EconomicConditions:Abriefoverviewofthenational,stateandlocaleconomicconditionsisprovidedinthissection.

4. RevenueAssumptions:Keyassumptionsdevelopingtherevenueforecastsareprovedhere.

5. RevenueSourceSummary:Thesummaryoffundingbyfederal,stateandlocalisidentifiedhere.

6. RevenueProgramsGlossary:Revenueprogramdefinitionsanduseparameters.

1.1 Financial/Fiscal Constraint Overview[1]

Financialplanningtakesalong‐rangelookathowtransportationinvestmentsarefunded,andatthepossiblesourcesoffunds.TheRTP,witha20+yearplanninghorizon,mustincludeafinancialplanthatestimateshowmuchfundingwillbeneededtoimplementrecommendedimprovements,aswellasoperateandmaintainthesystemasawhole,overthelifeoftheplan.ThisincludesinformationonhowtheMetroandourpartneringagenciesreasonablyexpecttofundtheprojectsincludedintheplan,includinganticipatedrevenuesfromFHWAandFTA,stategovernment,regionalorlocalsources,theprivatesector,andusercharges.Themetropolitantransportationplanmustdemonstratethatthereisabalancebetweentheexpectedrevenuesourcesfortransportationinvestmentsandtheestimatedcostsoftheprojectsandprogramsdescribedintheplan.Theplanmustbefiscally(orfinancially)constrainedtosatisfytherequirementsidentifiedby23CFR§450.324,DevelopmentandContentoftheMetropolitanTransportationPlan.


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Therequirementoffinancial/fiscalconstraintaspartoftheRTPdevelopmenthasbeeninplacesincetheenactmentoftheIntermodalSurfaceTransportationEfficiencyAct(ISTEA)in1991.ItwasfollowedbytheTransportationEquityActforthe21stCentury(TEA‐21)in1998.ItcontinuedaspartoftheSafe,Accountable,Flexible,EfficientTransportationEquityAct:ALegacyforUsers(SAFETEA‐LU)in2005,andmostrecentlyaspartofMovingAheadforProgressinthe21stCentury(MAP‐21)in2012.

Thetotalofallfederal,state,andlocalfundingrevenuestreamsidentifiedovertheRTP20+yearplanninghorizonbecomesthe“financiallyconstrained”portiontotheRTP.Thisbecomestheregion’sbudgettoplanandimplementstrategiestofundspecificprojectsidentifiedintheRTPtomeettheRTP’soutcomes.Theprocesstoidentifyallappropriatefederal,state,andlocalrevenuesourcestobeincludedintheRTPinvolvesusingdifferentmethodologieswhichallmustmeetthefederalcriteriaof“reasonablyexpectedtobeavailable.”

1.2 Reasonable Availability of Expected Funds[2]

Projectingaccuraterevenuestreamsandexpectedfundinglevelsbeyondafive‐yearplanninghorizonisadifficultchallenge.Thecurrentleveloffiscaluncertaintysurroundingthetransportationplanningandimplementationprocessonlyexacerbatesthedifficulty.DuringtheperiodofSAFETEA‐LU,FHWAestablishedtheplanningconceptof“reasonableavailabilityoffunding”enablingametropolitanplanningorganization(MPO),suchasMetro,todeveloprevenueestimates,methodologies,andpotentialnewfundingstreamsthatareexpectedtobeavailabletofundprojectsandRTPstrategiesovertheRTP’splanninghorizonyears.OverthelifeofSAFETEA‐LUandMAP‐21,therevenueforecastingconceptofreasonableavailabilityoffundinghasevolvedandbeenclarifiedtoincludemethodologiessuchas:

Identificationofnewfundingsourcesandlevelsoffundingnotcurrentlyinplace,butarereasonablyexpectedtobeinplaceinthefuture.Examples:

o Estimatingareauthorizationofalong‐termfundingmeasurebasedonpastsupportforthemeasureandprojects.

o Estimatingrevenuesoutofadrafttransportationlegislationbillnotyetapprovedthathasdocumentedstrongsupportinthestatelegislature

Projectingfuturerevenuesusinghistoricaltrendsincludingconsiderationofpastlegislativeorexecutiveactions.Examples:

o Usingtheaverageofformulaallocationfrommultiplepastyearstoprojectannualfutureyearamounts.

o Usingapprovedfuturedevelopmentschedulesandplansthatincludewithdevelopersystemchargestoextrapolatefuturepotentiallocalrevenues.

Projectingfuturerevenuesbasedonvalidandagreeduponeconomicforecastingmethodologies.Example:


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o Incorporatingafutureannualgrowthrateorinflationaryescalationbasedonhistoricaltrendsandavailableeconomicprojections

o Projectingthecontinuationofformulaallocationsbasedupontheagreeassumptionanewtransportationfundingbillwillbepassedatsimilarfundingrates.

Identificationofnewrevenuesourcesthatdonotcurrentlyexist,orthatrequireadditionalactionsbeforethestateDOT,MPO,orpublictransportationoperatorcancommitsuchfundingtotransportationprojects.Examples:

o Metro’sHighCapacityTransitfundingmethodologythatwillrequireLegislatureapprovalforthestaterevenuecommitment,butmaycountasconstrainedfundingbasedonprioryearhistoricalallocations.

o Thepassageofafuturegastaxincreasebasedonexistingsupportbythepublicandinthelegislature,

Determiningwhetherafuturefundingsourceisreasonablyexpectedtobeavailableisajudgmentcall.Whendevelopingandutilizingthereasonableavailabilityconcepttoidentifyneworenhancedrevenuesources,twokeyconsiderationsmustbeincludedtodetermineiftheassumptionisreasonable:

1. Evidenceofreviewandsupportofthenewrevenueassumptionsbystateandlocalofficials.

2. Documentationoftherationaleandproceduralstepstobetakenwithmilestonedatesforsecuringthefunds.

The2018RTPfinancialplanincludesanumberofprojectsandstrategiesbasedonreasonableavailabilityoffuturefunding.TheseprojectsandstrategiesareidentifiedwithintheRTPconstrainedlist.The2018RTPfinancialplanincludesanumberofprojectsandstrategiesbasedonreasonableavailabilityoffuturefunding.TheseprojectsandstrategiesareidentifiedwithintheRTPconstrainedlist.Metro’sfinanciallyconstrainedplanincludesacorerevenueforecastconsistingoffederal,state,andlocalfunds.Thefundsareidentifiedwithinthisappendixalongwithasummaryoutliningtheparametersandeligibilityfortheiruse.

Whilecurrentrevenueforecastingmethodologiesassumeacontinuedflowoffederaltransportationfundapportionments,Metroacknowledgestheconsiderablechallengeassociatedwithfinancingfuturetransportationinvestments.ThepossiblefutureinsolvencywiththeHighwayTrustFund,continuedexpandingdemandsforsystemmaintenance,andagrowingpopulationthatwillrequirenewcapacityroadwayandtransitsystemimprovementsrequireMetrotoexamineandevaluatepossiblealternatefundingsourcesbeyondtraditionalfederalsourcestosupportthetransportationdemandwithintheregion.

1.3 Year of Expenditure (YOE$) or Constant Year $

Inaccordancewith23CFR§450.324(g)(11)(iv).Metromustinclude“aninflationrate(s)toreflect“yearofexpendituredollars,”basedonreasonablefinancialprinciplesandinformation,developedcooperativelybytheMPO,State(s),andpublictransportationoperator(s).”


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Consistentwiththefederalguidelines,thefinancialplantakesintoaccountinflationandincorporatespossibleinflationaryimpactstotheprojectcosts.

Therationalebehindthisrequirementisthatlong‐rangeestimatesoftransportationcostshaveunderstatedthedeficitbetweencostsandrevenues.ByaddingacostescalatortoprojectcoststoreflecttheminYOEdollars,theimpactofinflationisaddressed.Asecondapproachistoleavetheprojectcostsincurrentyeardollarvalues,andthendiscountthefuturerevenuesintocurrentdollars.Throughthisapproachtheimpactfrominflationupontheannualpurchasingpowerisalsoaddressed.Metro’sreviewoftherequirementdetermineddiscountingtherevenuesbackintocurrentdollarswasthemoreefficientwaytoaddresstheimpactofinflation.Webelieveitpresentsamoreaccuratepictureofcosts,revenues,anddeficitsassociatedwithalong‐rangetransportationplan.Thefollowingprovidesthemethodologyusedincalculatingcostsandrevenuesintodiscounteddollars.

Inflation and 2018 $

ProjectsarereflectedinYOEdollarsoutto2040inmanyoftherevenuetables.TheagreeduponinflationratefortheRTPswassetat3.1%Ratherthanassignaninflationaryvaluetotheprojectcosts,Metrodiscountedestimatedfederalrevenuesbackintocurrentdollars.Thisapproachde‐valuestheestimatedrevenuestoaccountforinflation.TheapproachwasconsistentwiththeODOTLongRangeFundingAssumptions(LRFA)workgroupandwasdevelopedbyODOT’sSeniorEconomistincollaborationwithtransitprovidersandMPOsfortheMPOstousewhenupdatinglong‐rangetransportationplans.Threeoverallrealdollarapproacheswereused:

3. Thebasicapproachstartswithfederalrevenuesstatedin2018YOEdollars.Eachyear,the2018realdollarsarede‐valuedby1%fromtheinitial2018revenuevalue.Thisoccursbecausetheforecastedgrowthisabout2.1‐2.2%annuallyforthefederalfundswhiletheannualinflationratehasbeenestablishedat3.1%.Evenwiththe2.2%growth,thefederalfundsarenotkeepingupwithinflation.Fromthe2018amount,fundsthenlost1%eachyeartoreflecttheminconstant2018$dollars.Thereisnoinflationaryacceleratorormultiplierincludedwiththefunds.The2018$revenuescontinueeachyearlosing1%annually,(or,specifically,1.031%annually).Thisshowstheimpactinflationhasonthetruepurchasingpoweroftherevenues.

4. Convertinginto2016$:Somerevenueswerealreadyconvertedinto2016$.Theseamountswereusedwhereappropriatestartingthenwiththediscounted2018value.

5. NoAnnualGrowth:Athirdversionusedeliminatedannualgrowthresultinginastraight‐line,0%revenuegrowth.Revenuegrowthmayoccurannually,butitisoffsetbyinflation.Eachyearannualinflationcontinuestoweakenthetruepurchasingpowerofthefunds.So,unlesstheannualrevenuesseeatruegrowthofatleast3.1%,therealvaluediminisheseachyearduetoinflation.Thefarthertherevenueprojectionsareshown,thegreatertheimpactontherealpurchasingpoweroftheavailablerevenues.Thisapproachwasusedprimarilyforthelocalrevenuesourcesthatprovided23yearstotals,butdidnotincludeanyannualgrowth.Thetotalamountwasthendividedby23intoannualamountstoaccountforthelengthofthe2018RTPplanningtimeframe.


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InTableAatrightpage,estimated5311discretionaryrevenuesareprovidedbytheLRFAforOregonandthePortlandmetropolitanarea.ThefundsarelistedinYOEwhichincludesannualinflationgrowthmultipliers,andin2016$dollars.Acomparisonshowstheimpactinflationhasonthetruepurchasingpowerofthe5311fundsovertimeusingthe2016$approach.Between2018and2040,5311revenuesareprojectedtototal$22.5million.Adjustingtherevenuesin2016$s,reducesthetruerevenuesfrom$22.5milliontoanestimated$15millionduetoinflation.Statingtheavailable5311revenuesin2016$reducestheiramountby33%frominflation.Asmuchaspossible,theprojectedconstrainedRTPrevenuesareshownin2016$stodiscounttheirvalueandshowtheirreducedpurchasingpowerduetoinflation.

Why use the Discounting Approach to Estimating RTP Constrained Revenues?

DiscussionamongthelocalagenciesandODOTrevealedallhaddifferingcostmethodologiestoapplyanappropriateinflationarycostincreasetotheirprojectstostatetheminYOE.TherewasresistanceinapplyingtheLRFAannualinflationaryamountof3.1%totheirprojects.SomeindicatedthatasaresultusingYOE,theprojectcostestimateswouldbeextensivelylow‐balledwhichwouldnegatetosomedegreetheuseofaYOEinflationarymultiplier.Othersarguedthatsufficientprojectlevelfundingcontingencieshadbeenalreadyincorporatedintotheircostswhichaddressedtheinflationissue.Withoutagreementtoapplycostincreasesincreasetosubmittedproject,discountingtherevenuesbackintoto2016$wasthesolutiontoshowhowreducedrevenueswouldimpacttheprojectssubmittedintotheconstrainedRTP.Throughthisapproach,theimpactofinflationoutto2040(throughreducedrevenues)hasbeenaddressed

1.4 Constrained Revenue Forecast Summary

Developingtheconstrainedrevenueforecastdowntothefundtypecodelevelutilizedseveralapproachesandmethodologiestoensuretheestimationsmetthereasonableavailabilityof


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expectedfundsforthefuture.Theapproachesandmethodologiesusedarediscussedinlatersectionsofthisfinancialplan.

DuetothecentralizedfundingapproachODOTuses,severalfederalandstatefundtypescouldnotbeseparatedandestimatedoutto2040.DeterminingthereasonableavailabilityofsomefederalandstatefundshadtobeaccomplishedthroughODOTprogrammatictotals.Whilethemethodologyuseholdstruethelogicofreasonableavailabilityoffunding,itcouldnotsolvetheODOT“mixing”approachatacentralizedstatewidelevelratherthanbyindividualfundtypecodeidentificationdowntotheMPOandregionallevel.Example,therewasnowaytodeterminetheRegion1reasonableavailabilityofannualSurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)fundsduetothecentralizedapproachinmixingfederalandstatefundtypesacrossstatewideallocationsandnotspecificregionalallocationsbyindividualfundtypecodes.Thislimitationhasseriousimplicationsfordevelopinganddemonstratingaccuratefiscalconstraintvalidationstothefundtypecodelevelperrequirementsidentifiedacross23CFR450.300‐338.

Evenwiththeabovelimitations,Metrowasabletodevelopatotalconstrainedrevenueforecastthatappearstostillmeettheparametersofreasonableavailabilityofexpectedfuturefundingforthe2018RTP.Thesummaryisstatedbelow:

2018‐2040RTPConstrainedRevenueForecastSummary

RevenueCategoryConstrainedRevenues Notes

Federal(FHWAbased–nontransit) $1,290,864,879 Byindividualfundtypecode

Federal(FTAbased–transit) $4,010,744,005 Byindividualfundcodewithsomegroupingduetoformulaallocations

StateRevenuestoTransitNeeds $514,617,430Stategeneraterevenuescommittedtotransitpurposes(byfundtypecodeorfundingprogramcode)

StateRevenues(HB2017–non‐transit) $701,626,500IdentifiedbyHB2017allocationcategoriesinsupportofcapitalneeds)

ODOTCombinedRevenues(capital/enhance/modernizationareas)

$993,373,500

Combinedfederal&Stateforcapital/modernizationneeds.EstimatedattheRegion1levelandwithintheMPOboundaryarea

ODOTFix‐It(OM&P)CombinedProgramRevenues

$1,635,898,375 CombinedstateandfederalrevenuesestimatedattheRegion1level

SubtotalfederalandStateRevenues: $9,197,285,778 Subtotalfromallabovecategories

LocalRevenues(countiesandcities) $15,530,627,690Threecountiesandcitiescombinedalllocalrevenueprograms

LocalRevenues‐Transit $19,005,350,964 TriMetandSMARTTotalAllRevenues $43,733,264,432


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2018‐2040RTPConstrainedRevenueForecastSummary

RevenuesEstimatesAdjustedforCapitalvsO&M

RevenueCategory ConstrainedRevenues

Notes

FederalandStateRevenues $9,197,285,778 ByindividualfundtypecodeLocalRevenues(Estimatedavailableforcapitalneeds) $4,971,217,430 3countiesandcitiestogether

LocalRevenuesforTransit(Estimatedavailableforcapitalneeds)

$7,939,217,500 TriMetandSMART

TotalConstrainedRevenuesforProjectsinclusionintheRTP $22,107,72,708

Limitslocalfundstoavailablefundsforcapitalneedsidentifiedbyagencies

As showninthepreviousphaserevenuetablesandbelow,thehypotheticaltotalrevenues43,733,264,432forthegreaterPortlandregiondonotrepresenttheactualavailablerevenuesforregionalsystemcapitalimprovements.Thethreecounties,cities,TriMet,SMART,ODOTallhavetoaddressoperations and maintenance (O&M) needs which removes available revenues from capital improvmenent needs. The regional O&M commitment for the region is significant and consumes approximately 51% of the total identified federal, state, and local revenues identified for the greater Portland region. When removing the estimated O&M funding piece of the transportation revenue forecast decreases the constrained revenue forecast to an estimated $22.1 billion available for capital improvements needs.

Reducingtheidentifiedrevenuesforcapitalimprovementneedsresultsintheshareoffederalandstaterevenuesdoublingfrom21%to42%,asnotedabove.However,thenetfutureshareoffederalfundstothegreaterPortlandregionisanticipatedtodecreaseduetoinflation.Thefederalfundgrowthprojectionwassetat2.2%overtheRTP’syearsof2018‐2040.A2.2%growthforecastisconsideredtobemoderateandrepresentstheprognosisoffavorablelong‐termeconomicgrowthfortheregion.

However,inflationisestimatedtobeannuallyat3.1%.Asaresult,thegreaterPortlandregionwillfaceexpandingchallengestryingtofundfutureprojectsprimarilywithfederalfunds.Thenetimpactofinflationupontransportationrevenueswillresultinadecreasingtruepurchasing


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powerofallocatedandavailablefederalfundsfortransportationcapitalprojects.Thegapbetweenavailablefederalfundsandneededfederalfundsfortransportationprojectswillexpandoverfutureyears.EachRTPcycle,theregioncanexpectthecontributionpercentageoffederalfundssupportingneededtransportationprojectstodecrease.Likeawellgoingdry,thegreaterPortlandregionovertimewillfaceashrinkingfederalshareoftransportationrevenuesforneededcapitalimprovementprojects.Otherandadditionalnonfederaltransportationrevenuesourceswillneedtobesecuredtoadequatelymeettheregionaltransportationsystem’scapitalimprovementplusoperationsandmaintenanceprojectneeds.

Remaining Sections of the Constrained Revenue Forecast

Section2discussestheeconomicindicatorsandmethodologiesusedtodeterminetherevenuegrowthprojections.Theeconomicforecastispositive;however,theissueofinflationunderminestherevenuegrowth,especiallytofederalfunds.

Section3identifiesthevariousrevenueprogramsandtheassumptionsintheirallocationamountsanduse.

Section4coversthespecificrevenuesortheirfundingprogramswiththeestimatesoutto2040.

Section5providesafederalglossaryoftherevenueprogramdefinitionsanduses.


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2.0 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

2.0 Economic Conditions ................................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.1 Economic Summary ............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.2 The National Economic Picture ............................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.3 The State of Oregon Economic Picture ................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.4 The Metro Regional Picture ................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.5 Economic Indicators Summary............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.1 Economic Summary[3][4]

Theoveralleconomichealthofthenation,thestate,andtheregionallcombinetoinfluencetherevenueforecastsofavailablerevenuesfortransportationprojectsthrough2040.MosteconomicexpertsagreethatthenationaleconomyhasimprovedsincetheGreatRecessionof2008‐09.Atthenationallevel,fearsofglobaleconomicvulnerabilitiestoglobalinflationandtoanotherbankingmeltdowncontinuetosurface.Atthestatelevel,thepictureforOregonismoreoptimistic,withjobandincomegrowthbeingcitedasclearindicatorsofastrengtheningeconomy.Yet,punditsalsowarntowatchoutforstormcloudsthatcouldbeonthehorizon.Attheregionallevel,thepictureisencouragingaswell.Asof2018,thePortlandareaisnowexperienceaconstructionlaborshortfallduetoaboomingconstructionsectioninbothprivateandpublicinfrastructureimprovements.

2.2 The National Economic Picture

The glass is murky

Thenationaleconomicpictureremainsamixedbagofindicators.SomesuggesttheUnitedStatesiswellontoasolidrecovery,withslowbutsteadygrowthforthefuture.Theyciteadecreasingnationalunemploymentratethathit10%during2010toacurrent4.1%asofJanuary2018asakeyindicatorofahealthyeconomy.Theyalsocitethecontinuingsurgeofthemarketsasproofthateconomicprosperityishereagain,alongwiththepassageoftheTrumpAdministration’sTaxReformBill.

Othersarenotasoptimisticandstressthatthenationaleconomyisvulnerableandcouldslipbackintoarecession.Thiscampbelievesthatthegainsthenationaleconomyhasmadeoverthelasttwoyearsmayhavereachedaplateau,andtheeconomyisnotasstrongassomehave

Chart 1. National Unemployment Rates 1/2008 to 1/2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000


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reported.Theyfearthemarketsreflectaneconomicbubble,whichalongwiththebankingandrealestatesectors,willburstsoon,plungingthenationaleconomyintorecessionagain.Theycitethemarketsell‐offduringFebruary2018asproofofasymptomofafragileeconomythatgoesbeyondarequiredcorrection.

Overall,manyeconomistsandfinancialinvestmentleadersareoptimisticaboutournationaleconomicfuture.Theypointtodecreasingunemploymentnumbers,strongjobgrowthinmultipleregionalareas,andstressopinionsthatmanyindustrialsectorsarepoisedforsignificantinvestmentandexpansionoverthenextseveralyears.Theoneconditionalsoexpressedforageneraloptimistexpansionperiodisthatinflationmustbemaintainedandkeptundercontrol.

2.3 The State of Oregon Economic Picture

Perhaps the glass is half-full

Contrarytothenationaleconomicpicture,theStateofOregonEconomicpictureisfardifferent.AnalystsdescribeOregon’seconomicsummaryas“atfull‐throttlegrowth.Jobandincomearerisingfast,ifnotfasterthanthemid2000s.”[3]Oregonhasregaineditstraditionalgrowthadvantagerelativetootherstatesandappearstobeseeingadeeperlabormarketrecovery.

However,Oregonisstillhealingfromtheimpactofthe2008‐09Recession.Thestate’slabormarketisnearlytwo‐thirdsofthewaybacktopre‐recessionlevelsandisprojectedtoreachfullemploymentby2017[5].Afterthis,netlaborgrowthratesareexpectedtoslowsignificantlyoverthelongerhorizonasBabyBoomersfullyageintotheirretirementyears.Jobgrowthoverthenextseveralyearsisprojectedtobearound3%,reflectingaslowbutsteadygrowingeconomy.Keyeconomicandjobgrowthindicators(e.g.,laborforceparticipation,employmentnumbers,unemploymentnumbers,andunemploymentrates)arereflectinga

Charts 2-5. Oregon 10-Year History (2008-2018) for Labor Force Participation, Employment, Unemployment, and Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST410000000000003


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positiveturnaroundforthestate’soveralleconomichealth.

AkeyindicatorthatOregonisonitswaybackisalsoseeninlaborwages.WagesfortheaverageOregonworkerareincreasingfasterthanthenationalaverage.Although,Oregontrailsthenationalannualaverage,thegapisclosing.

Duringthe2012‐2014timeframe,thenationalandOregonannualaveragewagesareshownatrightbelow.Overthethree‐yearperiod,thenationalannualaveragewageincreasedby4.2%.AnnualwagesinthestateofOregon’sincreasedby5.1%.[6]

AnotherindicatorthatprovidesOregonanadvantageforlong‐termeconomicgrowthistheState’sunderlyingfundamentals(e.g.,industrialstructureandstrongin‐migrationflows)thatprovidelonglastingpositiveimpactstotheOregoneconomy.Additionally,unlikeotherareasthataresubjecttoseasonalweatherimpacts(e.g.,NewEnglandarea),Oregon’sindustrialstructuredoesnotfacethesameclimateimpedimentstoasteadyeconomy.

WhiletheoverallOregoneconomyissetonastrongfoundationandcouldenjoyseveralyearsofgrowth,severalissuesandconcernscouldstillderailthespositiveeconomicfuture.ForecastrisksfacingtheOregoneconomyinclude:

Federalfiscalpolicy:Thenegative:Oscillatingspendingadjustments,federalreductions,andongoingcontinuingresolution,short‐termfixescanimpactavailabletransportationfundingovershort‐termcyclesandcomplicateshort‐termplanningandimplementationactivities.

Thepositive:Outsideofoutrightlandownership,thefederalgovernmentdoesnothavealargepresenceinOregon.Thestatedoesnotfeelthemajorimpactoffederalspendingreductions.Ontheflipside,Oregondoesnotbenefitasmuchasotherstateswhenfederalspendingincreasesoccur.Whenlookingatfederalgrantsthestatereceivesasashareofstaterevenue,Oregonranks29thhighest.Whenconsideringfederalprocurementasashareoftheeconomy,Oregonranks48thhighest.StrengthandDurabilityoftheHousingMarketRecovery:GrowthofthehousingmarketinOregonsawbriskgrowththrough2012andbrakingtoa

Graph 1


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completestallin2013,withrecoverytomoderategrowthin2014.Howlongthehousingmarketcontinuestoimprove,andtowhatdegreecanandwilltheimpactbeupontheoverallstateeconomy,isatopicforongoingdebate.Whilethehousingmarketappearstohavepassedthecrucibleofforeclosureactivity,salesofbothexistinghomesandnewconstructiondoesnotyetapproachpre‐recessionlevels.Anotherconcernisthepossibilityofanothersubprimeraterealestatebubbleemergingthatcouldnegativelyimpactthehousingmarketagain.

RealEstateSupplyNotKeepingUpDemand:Expectationsarethatinastableandgrowingeconomy,newconstructionstartswillincreaseaswelltohelpmeettheincreaseindemand.Asdemandoutweighssupply,rentalpriceshaveincreasedandhomeaffordabilityisdecreasing.Asrentsandhomepricesareincreasedfasterthanincomeandwages,householdsarefacinglessdiscretionaryincometospendinotherareas,impactingretailsaleareas.Questionsremainifnewconstructionactivitywillpickupsufficientlytoalleviatethedemandandhelpimprovehomerentalandownershipaffordability.

CommodityPriceIndexandInflation:ThelastperiodofextremeinflationintheUnitedStatesoccurredduringthe1970swheninflationexceeded10%andhitalmost14%during1979.ThehighinflationaryimpactchangedthemonetarypolicyfortheUnitedStatesfrom1980onward.TheFederalReserveSystem(orFed)implementednewprocedurestocloselymonitorinflationtoensureradicalperiodsofinflationdidnotoccuragain.

For the most part, the Fed has controlled inflation and kept it to a creep over the past twenty years. However, fears still abound that Untied States could again experience a hyper-inflation period brought on by global economic instability or as a result of out-of-control growth. Part of the rationale is that global economic instability could result in world-wide commodity shortages resulting in extremepriceincreases.EachyeartheFedmustdecideifinterestratesshouldberaisedtoreducethemoneysupplyasawaytocontrol

Charts 6-7. CPI – All Urban Consumers 10-year inflation rate 2008-2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E?output view=pct 12mths


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inflation.Sincethe2008‐09Recession,theFedhasheldoffsignificantlyraisinginterestrates.Rateincreasesareoccurringasof2017,butnotinthemannerthatwouldindicateanattempttooff‐sethyperinflation

Overall,theeconomicpictureappearspositiveandfavorableforsteadylongtermgrowth.Thestatepossessesalltheneededresources,multipleeconomiclegs,laborsupply,tourism,qualityofliferesources,etc.todevelopandsustainlong‐termeconomicgrowth.Atthesametime,thereexistsomeseriouschallengesjustbeyondthehorizonthatcouldimpactlong‐termeconomicgrowthandavailablefundingfortransportation.The2018RTPFinancialPlanRevenueForecastreflectsapragmaticbutoptimisticsetofassumptionsaboutfuturerevenue.

2.4 The Regional Picture[7]

The glass is filling up quickly

DoesthegreaterPortlandregionalsodemonstratethesamepositivegrowthtrends?The10‐yearavailableBureauofLaborStatisticsdatasuggests“yes.”

Aswiththestatelaborforceandemploymenttrends,thePortlandregionparallelsthestrengtheningeconomicconditionsaroundthestate.Laborforceparticipationrateshavesignificantlyincreasedsince2008.Thenumbersof“employed”haveincreasedaswell.

Theregionalunemploymentratealsohasdecreasedfrom6.6%intheexpansionperiodof2005witharecessionhighof11.3%duringFebruaryof2010downto5.8%asofJanuary2015.TheunemploymentrateinthePortlandMetropolitanStatisticalArea(MSA),post‐recessionrecoverytimeframe(2015‐2018),reflectsastilldecreasingratedownto4.0%asofJanuary2018.

During2017‐18thenationalunemploymentratealsodecreased.However,thePortlandMSAwas

Charts 8-11. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro MSA 10-Year History (2008-2018) for Labor Force Participation, Employment, Unemployment, and Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT413890000000003


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significantlybelowthenationalratewhichwas5.1%asofJanuary2017and4.5%asofJanuary2018.

Theunemploymentratehasdecreasesomuchsincethehighof11.3%in2010thatseveralindustrieshavenowexpressedlaborshortageissues.TheconstructionindustryinthePortlandregionisanexample.Bothresidential,commercial,andtransportationrelatedcompanieshaveexpressedtheneedformorelabor.WhiletheconstructionindustryemploymentpayrollsinthePortlandareahavegrownby7.7%betweenJanuary2017toJanuary2018,tradeindustryrepresentativeareconcernedalaborshortagestillexistsformanycompanies.

Increasing annual average wages for the Portland

region

Ifannualaveragewagesstatewidehavebeenincreasing,havetheybeenincreasingsignificantlyinthePortlandregion?Theshortanswerisyes,pertheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS).TheBLS’2016OccupationalEmploymentandWagesTableinthePortlandMetropolitanStatisticalArea(MSA)region(nextpage),whichincludesClackamas,Multnomah,andWashingtonCountiesinOregonandClarkCountyinWashington,indicatesthatworkersinthePortlandMSAhadanaverage(mean)hourlysalaryof$25.94asofMay2016.Thisisabout9%abovethenationwideaverageof$23.86.Additionally,wagesinthelocalareawerehigherintheirrespectivenationalaveragesin13of22majoroccupationalgroups,includinghealthcarepractitionersandtechnical,healthcaresupport,andconstructionextraction.

Graph 2. Portland Area Unemployment Rate 2017-2018 Source Bureau of Labor Statistics


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Local Inflation Trends:

“Inflation”reflectsageneralincreaseinpricesandfallinthepurchasingvalueofmoney.Theinflationratemeasuresofhowfastacurrencylosesitsvalue.Theinflationratemayriseduetomassiveprintingofmoney,whichincreasessupplyintheeconomyandthusreducesdemand.Equally,itmayoccurbecausecertainimportantcommoditiesbecomerarerandthusmoreexpensive.Centralbanksattempttocontroltheinflationratebyincreasinganddecreasingthemoneysupply.ThestandardmeasurementofthechangeinprocessistheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI).AsmonitoredbytheBureauofLaborStatistics,theCPIameasureoftheaveragechangeovertimeinthepricespaidbyurbanconsumersforamarketbasketofconsumergoodsandservices.

FromtheBLSCPIPortlandMSASecondhalfof2017report,thePortlandMSAareaCPIrose3.9%.TheBLSreportattributesmuchoftheincreasetotheriseinthepriceofgasolineandmedicalcare.Thisreflectsasignificantincreaseininflationfortheregionastheannuallyaveragesince2012hasrangedfromaslowas1.5%to2.5%.The2017rateof3.9%isnotexpectedtolastanddecreasedowntowardsthe3%range.Nationally,theone‐yearchangefromMarch2017toMarch2018sawtheCPIrise2.4%.

Table B. Key Occupation Wage Comparison for the Portland-Vancouver MSA and U.S., May 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


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ThevarianceinCPIbetween

nationalchangesandthePortlandarea’sinflationaryfluctuationsresultedintheODOTLongRangeFundingAssumptionsworkgrouptoadopta3.1%averageinflationratetouseindevelopmentoftheMPO’sRegionalTransportationPlans.Theratesignifiesthatoverallinflationwillnotgetoutofcontrol,butacknowledgesthatthePortlandregioncouldexperienceshortperiodsofhigherinflationduetothecontinuedgrowthandexpansion. Tohelpavoidplanningimpactsofpossiblefutureshort‐terminflationaryswings,FHWAimposedaninflationaryyearofexpenditure(YOE)requirementtoaddresstheimpactofinflationonthetruepurchasingpowerofidentifiedrevenues.MPOshavetwoapproachestocomplywiththeYOErequirement:AddinflationarycoststoeachprojectontheconstrainedRTP.Or,discounttheidentifiedrevenuestoaddressinflation.Metrochosethelattertodiscounttherevenues.Thiswasdiscussedinmoredetailpreviouslyinsection1.3.

2.5 Economic Indicators Summary

Thereviewofthemajoreconomicindicatorsnationally,atthestatelevelandacrossthemetropolitanMetroareasupportslongtermpositivegrowthandanoptimisticeconomicpicture.TheLFRAassessmentisoptimisticaswellresultinginalong‐termeconomicgrowthprojectionthatisrevealedinthefederalrevenueestimates.Alleconomicindicatorsfromlaborforceparticipation,employment,unemployment,andwagesreflectcurrentandfuturestrongeconomicgrowth.CPIandinflationremainsasabitofawildcardthatcouldtripupthefuturestateandregionaleconomy.However,withtheFederalReserveBoard’sstronganti‐inflationaryfiscalpoliciesbeingimplemented,thelikelihoodofhyperinflationorprolongedperiodsofhighinflationdonotappearevidentforthefuture.

Chart 13. The Economic Daily – CPI 12 month National March 2017 to March 2018 Source Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/consumer-price-index-rose-2-point-4-percent-over-the-year-ending-march-2018.htm

Graph 3. CPI Changes first half and second half 2014-2017


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Aspositiveaseconomicpictureappearstoberesultinginexpectedmoderatelyhighgrowthforfuturetransportationfederalandstaterevenueestimates,theLRFAcouldnotsupportakeyeconomicassumptionthatmostfutureannualfederalandstaterevenueswillnotexceedannualinflation.EventhepassageoftheFASTActandtheefforttoresolvetheinsolvencytotheHighwayTrustFundwasnotenoughtojustifyanLRFAforecastthatfederalrevenuegrowthwouldbeat3.1%orhigher.Meetingorexceedingannualinflationwouldrepresentanextremelystrongeconomicgrowthforecastwhichdoesnotappeartobeevident.TheLRFA’spositionsupportsamoderaterevenuegrowthforecast.TheLRFAestablisheda2.2%annualgrowthforecastformostfederalfundstousefortheMPO’sRTPs.

Thefederalrevenueforecastofanannualgrowthrateof2.2%isstillveryoptimisticwhenactualannualfederalrevenuegrowthrateshavebeenaround1.5%‐2.0%.However,itstilltrailstheannualinflationbyabout1%.Thisleavestheregionwiththeunfortunaterealizationthatthefederalsharetomajortransportationprojectswillcontinuetodecreaseforthefuture.Otherrevenueoptionswillneedtobeexploredtohelpoff‐setthecontinuinglossoffederalrevenuesfortransportationinfrastructureimprovements.


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3.0 REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS

3.0 Revenue Assumptions .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.1 Revenue Growth and Inflation ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.2 Federal Revenues Allocated to Metro ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.3 Federal Transit Revenues (FTA based revenue allocations) ................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.4 Federal Funds Allocated to Local Agencies through the ODOT Enhance Program ... Error! Bookmark

not defined.

3.5 Federal Fund Appropriations to the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) ................ Error!

Bookmark not defined.

3.6 ODOT Operations Maintenance and Pavement (Fix-It) Program ........ Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.7 State Revenue Growth Assumptions ................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.8 Oregon HB2017 .................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.9 Local Revenue Assumptions................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.1 Revenue Growth and Inflation

ThisfinancialplancontinuesusinghistoricalapportionmentandallocationtrendsandassumesthatCongresscanresolvetheinsolvencyissuesfacingtheHighwayTrustFund.Metroacknowledgesthefund’sinsolvencyissueisseriousandthepassageoftheFASTActisnotthecompletesolution.Congresswillneedtoimplementadditionallong‐termsolutionstomaintainthefund’ssolvency.Since2005,therehavebeenfluctuations,butoverallMetrohasreceiveditsannualappropriationswithinthehistoricalallocationtrends.

TheconsensusoftheODOTLongRangeFundingAssumptions(LRFA)workgroupandwiththepassageoftheFASTActisthatfederalfundingappropriationswillcontinueattheirhistoricallevelsandseemoderategrowthforthefuture.TheLRFArecommendedanaverage2.2%annualgrowthrateformanyoftheidentifiedfederalfunds.Whilethisrepresentsasolidfuturerevenueforecast,theexpectedandLRFAadoptedinflationrateisprojectedtobe3.1%.Thisequatestoaconstantdollarvaluelossofabout1%annually.

Sincethefederalfundswillnotkeepupwithannualinflation,theirrealcontributiontotransportationprojectswillcontinuetobediminishedovertime.Otherrevenuesources,especiallylocallygeneratedsources,willneedtobetopursuedsuchasself‐helptaxmeasures,regionalassessments,orotherideasthatresidentswillsupporttohelpoffsettheprojectedandongoingdecreaseofavailablefederalfundsfortransportationprojects.

3.2 Federal Revenues Allocated to Metro

MetroreceivesanannualapportionmentfromODOTforthreefederalfundingprograms:

SurfaceTransportationBlockGrantSTBG)funds.


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CongestionMitigationAirQuality(CMAQ)improvementfunds.

TransportationAlternatives(TA)funds.

Metroisadirectrecipientoftheabovefundsandresponsiblefortheirmanagement,allocation/distribution,programminginthefour‐yearMetropolitanTransportationImprovementProgram(MTIP),plusprovidingexpenditureandreimbursementmonitoringinpartnershipwithODOTtoensurethefundsareusedcorrectlyandinatimelyfashion.

MetroalsoisresponsiblefortheprogrammingofallfederaltransportationfundsintotheMTIPthatincludetransit(e.g.,UrbanizedAreaFormulaGrants‐5307,NewStarts/SmallStartsCapitalInvestmentGrants‐5309,EnhancedMobilityofSeniorsandPeoplewithDisabilities‐5310,etc.),otherroadway/bridgeimprovementfunds(e.g.,HBRR),andspecialannualfederalbudgettransportationfundsdesignatedforspecificprojects.Thisfinancialplanincludesrevenueforecastsforallfederaltransportationfundswithahistoryofbeingallocatedorawardtotheregion.Section4.0identifiestheapplicablefederaltransportationfundsincludedintherevenueforecast.Section5.0providesadditionaldescriptivedetailsandrevenueforecastmethodologies.

3.3 Federal Transit Revenues (FTA based revenue allocations)

TheMetroMPOareafallswithinthePortlandUrbanizedArea(UZA)whichincludesportionsofMarionCounty,OregonandClarkCounty,WashingtonwhichisnotpartoftheMPOboundary.PertheFTANationalTransitdatabaseGlossary,anUZAisanareadefinedbytheU.S.CensusBureauthatincludes:

Oneormoreincorporatedcities,villages,andtowns(centralplace);and

Theadjacentdenselysettledsurroundingterritory(urbanfringe)thattogetherhasaminimumof50,000persons.

Theurbanfringegenerallyconsistsofcontiguousterritoryhavingadensityofatleast1,000personspersquaremile.Urbanizedareasdonotconformtocongressionaldistrictsoranyotherpoliticalboundaries.ThePortland,OR‐WAUZAconsistofthethreetransitagencies:Tri‐CountyMetropolitanDistrictofOregon(TriMet),SouthMetroAreaRegionalTransit(SMART),andtheClarkCountyPublicTransportationBenefitAuthority(C‐TRAN).Appropriatedfederaltransitformulafundsarethensplitbyagreedformulaamongthreetransitagencies.Forthepurposesofthisrevenueforecast,allocationstoC‐TRANarenotincluded,astheVancouver,WAareafallsoutsideoftheMetroPortlandMPOboundaryarea.

TriMetandSMARTreceiveformulaFTASectionfundsthatmayinclude:5307,5310,5337,and5339funds.BothalsohavebeensuccessfulincompetingforandsecuringdiscretionaryFTA5309grantsandotherFTAdiscretionarygrantsovertheyears.TriMetalsowillbetheimplementingleadagencyfortheFTANewStartsandSmallStartsgrantsassumingMetroandTriMetsuccessfullyobtaintheselargediscretionarygrantsfortheexpansionofTriMet’sMAXlightrailsystem.


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3.4 Federal Funds Allocated to Local Agencies through the ODOT Enhance Program

AportionofthevariousfederalfundsODOTisappropriatedstatewidewillbeallocatedtolocalagenciesthroughODOT’sEnhance/ModernizationProgram.TheEnhanceprogramcombinesseveralsourcesoffundingforinvestmentsintoasingleproposalprocess.TheprogramfocusesoncapitalneedsandisseparatefromODOT’scapitalprogram.ThishelpstomeettheexpectationofODOTtoidentifyandfundthebestmultimodaltransportationsolutionsneededtomovepeopleandgoodsthroughthetransportationsystem.Eligibleprojectsmustbeconsistentwithstateandlocalplans;localproposersarerequiredtoprovidematchfunds;andprojectsmustbenefitthestate’smultimodaltransportationsystem(eitheronoroffthestatesystem).

ProjectactivitiesthatareeligiblefortheEnhancecategoryfundsinclude:

Bicycleand/orPedestrianfacilitiesonoroffthehighwayright‐of‐way

PublicTransportation(capitalprojectsonly,notongoingoperations),TransitFleetreplacementsinwhichtitleisnotheldbyODOT

SafeRoutestoSchool(infrastructureprojects)

ScenicByways(constructionprojects)

TransportationAlternativesasdefinedbytheTransportationAlternativesDataExchange(TrADE)

TransportationDemandManagement

TransportationOptions

ForpurposesoftheRTPConstrainedRevenueForecast,theestimatedfederalfundsthatwillendbeingallocatedtothelocalagenciesandincludethefollowingrevenuesorspecificfundtypes:

Modernization/Enhance‐L(federaldiscretionaryforcapital/modernizationpurposes.Includesacombinationofmultiplefederalfundtypes)

HBRR‐L(federalHighwayBridgeReplacementandRehabilitationProgramlocalallocations)

FederalHighwaySafetyImprovementProgram(HSIP)

ConnectOregon

Miscellaneousfederaldiscretionaryallocations(Tigergrants,FASTLane,INFRAGrants,ITS,etc.)

Thefederalfundsorallocatedfundprogramsarelistedinthefederalrevenuesection.

3.5 Federal Fund Appropriations to the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT)

ODOTisthedirectrecipientofmostofthefederaltransportationfundsthestateofOregonreceivesforhighwayimprovements.ODOTisalsochargedwiththestewardshipand


24


managementofallfederaltransportationfundsallocatedtothestate.TypicalfederalfundsODOTisallocatedincludes:

EmergencyRelief(ER)funds

FederalLandsAccessProgram(FLAP)

HighwaySafetyImprovementProgram(HSIP)

IntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)program

HighwayBridgeProgram(HBP)

NationalHighwayPerformanceProgram(NHPP)

NationalHighwayFreightProgramNHFP)

Railway‐HighwayCrossingsProgram

StatewideandNonmetropolitanPlanning(SPR)

SurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)funds

Discretionaryfederaltransportationimprovements(TIGERFASTLanegrants,INFRAGrants)

DuetothecentralizedapproachODOTutilizeswhendeterminingthepriorityandallocationoftheirfederalandstatefunds,determiningspecificfederalrevenueallocationsbyspecificthespecificfundtype(aslistedabove)isnotpossiblecurrently.However,ODOTRegion1didexamineanddevelopalong‐rangerevenueforecastestimatebasedonhistoricalallocationestimatesandtheODOTLRFAprojectionsfornumerousstatewidefederalfundallocationsfortheircapitalprogramneeds.TheODOTRegion1Capitalprogramestimateincludesfederalandstatefundsmixedtogetherandcan’tseparatethestatefundswiththeexceptionofHB2017statefundsandspecificstatefundsidentifiedfortransitneeds.Currently,Region1can’tidentifytheratioorforecastannualfederalfundamountsthatwillbeallocatedtothemduetothecentralizedandstatewideapproachODOTHeadquartersusestoallocatefederalfundstoprojects.

Theestimateoutto2040forODOTRegion1developedtheircapitalprogramneedsbasedonsixareasasfollows:

MinimumModernizationProgram

RemainingStateJTA(HB2001)funds

FederalFreightProgram(HFP)

FederalLandsAccessProgram(FLAP)

FederalDiscretionary

Modernization(Mod)Legislature(HB2017)

ODOTRegion1estimatedatotalof$1.522billioninrevenuesarereasonablyexpectedtobeavailableoutto2040fortheabovecapitalprogramsintheMPOboundaryareaandisshownin


25


theRevenueTableCbelow.However,uponafurtherreviewofHB2017,MetrofoundthetotalforthecapitalprogrampotentiallyhigherasshowninTableD.

TABLE C

ODOT Region 1 Projected Modernization/Capital Revenues (2018 Constant $) (December 2017)

Revenue Program Use 2018-2027 2028-2040 TotalMinimum Modernization Program

Capital $114,956,521 $149,443,479 $264,400,000

Remaining JTA Capital $10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000Federal Freight Program (HFP) Capital $42,643,480 $55,436,520 $98,080,000Federal Lands Access Program (FLAP)

Capital $0 $0 $0

Federal Discretionary Capital $65,217,390 $84,782,610 $150,000,000Mod Legislature (HB2017) Capital $434,782,610 $565,217,390 $1,000,000,000

Totals: $667,600,001 $854,879,999 $1,522,480,000

TABLE DUpdated ODOT Region 1 Modernization/Capital Revenues(2018 Constant $) (March 2018)

Revenue Program Use 2018-2027 2028-2040 Total Minimum Modernization Program

Capital $122,760,292 $142,210,641 $264,970,933

Remaining JTA Capital $10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000Federal Freight Program (HFP) Capital $42,643,480 $55,436,520 $98,080,000Federal Lands Access Program (FLAP)

Capital $0 $0 $0

Federal Discretionary Capital $65,217,390 $84,782,610 $150,000,000HB2017 Rose Quarter Capital $375,000,000 $0 $375,000,000HB2017 Safe Routes to School-SR2S

Capital $31,387,500 $48,964,500 $80,352,000

HB2017 Highway and Street projects

Capital $249,700,000 $0 $249,700,000

HB2017 Bridges Safety (Sec 71a-c)

Capital 12,555,000 $19,585,800 $32,140,800

HB2017 Seismic (Sec 71a-c) Capital $9,416,250 $14,689,350 $24,105,600HB2017 Pavement (Sec 71a-c) Capital 7,533,000 $11,751,580 $19,284,480HB2017 Maintenance (Sec 71 a-c)

Capital $1,883,250 2,937,870 $4,821,120

Future Legislature (After HB2017)

Capital $507,655,054 $565,217,390 $1,000,000,000

Totals: $1,435,751,217 $380,358,770 $1,816,109,987 Notes and qualifications: 1. A total of $10 million of JTA funds is estimated to be available. The funds have been applied in the first RTP

Year Division 2. FLAP: The estimated allocation of FLAP over the RTP 23 year period is estimated at a maximum $107.3 million.

FLAP is assumed to be allocated to projects outside of the MPO Boundary and therefore no funding in the MPO boundary is reflected. Region 1 does not assume a contribution from FLAP to the ODOT Metro modernization target.

3. Federal discretionary are various large transportation grants (FAST Lane, etc.) that ODOT estimates they will receive over the RTP horizon year period.


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4. “Mod Legislature” includes three projects that would be funded from the State Legislature through a combination of fee and tax increases. The projects are identified in draft bill format now. Based on historical funding trends in the state, and that the projects are in draft legislation, Metro supports the assumption the funding meets the definition of “Reasonable Availability”. The total estimated funding would be $1 billion. Mod Legislature also includes state funding o specifically named projects. In the final revenue forecast tables, the amount identified in the Mod Legislature does not include the funding for the HB2017 named capital improvement projects which are shown separately under the HB2017 revenue source.

5. Revenues identified in HB2017 Section 71 a-c do not provide a regional split only a statewide annual estimate. Metro used the 81% of 31% methodology for these identified funds for inclusion in the RTP.

3.6 ODOT Operations Maintenance and Pavement (Fix-It) Program

TheFix‐ItprogramincludesfundingcategoriesthatmaintainorfixODOT’sportionofthetransportationsystem.Thisisthenon‐capacityenhancingoperationsandmaintenance(O&M)componenttoODOT’soverallsystempreservation.TherearegenerallyfourmajorcategoriesofFix‐itprogramswhichinclude:

Bridges(repair/rehabilitate)

Culverts(repair/replace)

HighwayPavementMaintenance

Safetyandoperations

WithinSafetyandoperations,thefollowingsubcategoriesdefinethelargersafetyandoperationsprogram:

Highwaycrossings

Roadwaysafety(non‐capacityrepairs/rehabilitation)

Landslides/rockfallsmitigation

Illumination/Signals/ITS

Onaverage,theFix‐Itprogramhasbeenfundedprimarilywithfederalfunds(wellover90%ofprojectfundinghasbeenfederal)withthestatefundsprovidingtherequiredmatch.However,becauseofthecentralizedstatewideallocationoffunding,Region1couldnotprovideabreakoutoutoffederalfundingcompositiondowntothespecificfundtypecode.

Developingtheconstrainedrevenueforecastoutto2040utilizedthethreeyearstate‐wideFix‐itprogramfundingestimatesfromthe2018‐2021STIPandthedraft2021‐2024STIP.Thetotalthree‐yearestimatefromthecurrent2018‐2021STIPfortheFix‐Itprogramis$814,857,085asshowninRevenueTableE.Thisaveragesouttoapproximately$286,499,518overthethreeyearfundingperiod.

Revenue Table E


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Asmentionpreviously,ODOTusesacentralizedapprovedtoallocatingFix‐ItprogramrevenuestothevariousODOTregions.Additionally,ODOTmixesthecompositionoftheprogramfundtypecodes.ItwasnotpossibletosplitoutthespecificfundtypecodeandamountforeachFix‐ItprogramcategoryandspecifyhowmuchSTBG,NHPP,NHFP,etc.arebeingallocatedtoeachODOTregionandtotheMPOs.

Table F. ODOT OM&P Revenue Estimates


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IfaspecificfundingsplitallocationmethodologywasavailabletodeterminetheapproximatesplitforODOTRegion1andthenfortheMPOarea,itwasusedandisidentifiedastherevenuemethodologysourceinSection4.2foreachidentifiedfundcode.Ifnomethodologywasavailable,thenMetroreliedonastandard“81%of31%”allocationmethodology.The81%of31%allocationmethodologycomprisesthefollowingassumptions:

a. Therevenuesourcetotalwasidentifiedandconfirmedtobeastatewideallocation.

b. 31%ofthestatewidetotalwasestimatedwouldbeallocatedtotheODOTRegion1area

c. 81%ofthe31%wasestimatedwouldremainintheMPOboundaryarea.ThisbecametheannualamountfortheMetroMPOarea.

d. Thefunds(ifallocatedinYOEamounts)werethendiscountedinto2016$dollarsforeachyearoutto2040.

Forthe2018‐2040STIPFix‐itProgramestimate,ODOTidentifiedastatewidetotalof$847,741,539overthethree‐year(2022‐2024)fundingperiod.The$847millionestimateiscomprisedofareducedprogramestimateof$658,241,539byOTCdirectionplusanaugmentationbyHB2017of$189,500,000.Thethree‐yearaveragetotaled$282,580,513whichwasusedforthe2022‐2024timeframe.The$282millionwasusedasthebaselineamountoutto2040asshowninTableConthenextpage.BasedontheestimatesprovideinbothSTIPs,theFix‐Itprogramrevenueswouldtotalapproximately$1,635,898,375whichwillbeacombinationofbothfederalandstaterevenuesfromHB2017.

CombiningboththeODOTRegion1estimatedcapital/modernizationrevenueswiththeirO&MFix‐Itrevenuesprovidesatotalrevenuepictureof$4billiondollars.Unfortunately,estimatingspecificfundcoderevenuesdowntotheRegion1levelisnotpossibleduetothecentralizedallocationmethodologyODOTusesandthelackofspecificfundingtablemethodologydevelopedbytheODOTLRFA.ThebestMetrocouldestimatearethecombinedfederalandstaterevenuesODOTreceivesandextrapolatetheirrevenueassumptionsbyfundingprogramoutto2040.MetroanticipatesdevelopmentofrevenueestimatesforallidentifiedfundtypecodesdowntotheMPOandRegion1levelwillcontinuetobeadiscussionanddirectivefromUSDOT.However,withoutformaldirectionfromUSDOT,littlechangeisexpectedforthenextRTPupdatecycle(duein2023).

ListedinthebelowtableisasummaryofODOTfederalandstaterevenuesasbestidentifiedbyMetrousingestimatesprovidedbyODOT’sLRFA,withadditionalinputfromRegion1staffandafair‐shareallocationmethodologyappliedtoestimatefundsintheMPOregion.Thetotalofthesixidentifiedfundingprogramsisestimatedwillgenerateatotalof$4billiondollarsforODOToutto2040.


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3.7 State Revenue Growth Assumptions

Indeterminingstaterevenueestimates,theODOTLRFAworkgroupdrewfromseveralsourcesincludingtheGeneralFundgrowthHistory,andthepassageofHB2017’santicipatedimpactuponOregonStatetransportationrevenues.TheremainingportionofSection3.7andSection3.8discusstherationalthathelpedestablishthestaterevenueestimatesusedinthisplan.

Overthe10‐yearforecastperiod,theGeneralFundrevenuegrowthisexpectedtobestablewitharound10.5%throughthe2019‐21bienniumaccordingtotheOregonEconomicandRevenueForecastproducedbytheOfficeofEconomicAnalysis.Note:Thebelowtable(TableD)wascompletedbeforethepassageofHB2017.ThefullimpactofHB2017willnotbeknownontheoverallstaterevenueforecastuntilthedevelopmentofthenextStateBienniumForecast.


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Table G General Fund Revenue Forecast Summary (Millions of Dollars, Current Law) [11]

Revenue Source

Forecast 2015-17

Biennium

% Chg

Forecast 2017-19

Biennium

% Chg

Forecast 2019-21

Biennium

% Chg

Forecast 2021-23

Biennium

% Chg

Forecast 2023-25

Biennium

% Chg

Personal Income Taxes

15,749.7 12.1% 17,593.0 11.7% 17,593.0 11.7% 21,380.8 9.8% 23,473 9.8%

Corporate Income Taxes

1080.7 -1.5% 1,057.1 -2.2% 1,106.4 4.7% 1,198.8 8.4% 1,265.2 5.5%

All others

1,021 0.2% 1,054.1 3.2% 1,129.8 7.2% 1,1189.3 5.3% 1,242.2 4.4%

Gross General Fund

17,852.1 10.5% 19,704.3 10.4% 21,702.2 10.1% 23,768.9 9.5% 25.980.5 9.3%

Offsets and Transfers

(96.3) (98.0) (41.9) (45.9) (47.2)

Net Revenue

17,755.8 10.4% 19,606.3 10.4% 21,660.3 10.5% 23,723.0 9.5% 25,933.3 9.3%

TheStateHighwayFund

RevenueHistorysupportstheoverallprojectrevenuegrowthof9.3%outto2025asshownabove.Sincetheearly1970s,theOregonStateHighwayFundhasgrowndramaticallyfrom$100millionin1971toalmost$800millionby2009inYOEamounts.FromdevelopmentoftheBienniumsforecast,positiveStateHighwayFundhistoricalrevenuegrowth,andthepassageofHB2017providethebasisofamoderatelystrongstaterevenuegrowthforecastdevelopedbytheLRFAfortheidentifiedstaterevenuesintheconstrainedRTPrevenueforecast.

3.8 Oregon HB2017

HouseBill2017,passedin2017,isOregon’snewlong‐rangetransportationact.HB2017willgreatlyassisttheStateHighwayFundNetRevenuescontinueinanupwarddirection.HouseBill2017providesadditionalfundingforprojectsnamedinthebillandforbridge,pavement,

Table H


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culvert,seismicandsafetyprojects.HB2017‐Aimplementsavarietyofinitiativesforthetransportationfundingpackageof2017.Thebillincludesthefollowing:

MakesvariouschangestotheOregonTransportationCommission(OTC).DirectstheOTCtomaintainarealpropertyinventoryofODOT,todevelopandmaintainacomprehensive20yearplan,createstheContinuousImprovementAdvisoryCommittee,directstheOTCtodevelopasetofuniformstandardsfortrafficinfrastructure,andtodevelopawebsitetoincludeprojectinformation.

EstablishesaninternalauditorwithinODOT.

MakespermanenttheJointCommitteeonTransportation.

Providesfornewrevenuefromincreasedfeesandtaxes,andthecreationofapayroll,privilege,andusetax.Distributionofnewrevenueisasfollows:

o ForcalendaryearsbeginningonorafterJanuary1,2022,$30millionfortheI5RoseQuarterProject.

o $10millionforSafeRoutestoSchools

o Afterthesedistributions,fundswillbedistributedasfollows:

50%toODOT

30%toCounties

20%toCities

OfthefundsmadeavailabletoODOT,theywillbeallocatedasfollows:

o First,$10millionforsafety,andtheremaindersplitaslistedbelow:

40%forbridges

30%forseismicimprovementsrelatedtohighwaysandbridges

24%forstatehighwaypavementpreservationandculverts

6%forstatehighwaymaintenanceandsafetyimprovements

o Additionally,thebillauthorizesODOTtoissuehigheruserbondsnottoexceed$480million.Thesebondproceedswillbedistributedtothefollowingregions,foravarietyofprojects:

Region1:$249,700,000

Region2:$201,950,000

Region3:$75,000,000

Region4:$76,493,000

Region5:$43,647,000

IncreasesthedistributionoffundstosmallcitiesandcountiesthroughtheSmallCitiesandCountiesProgram.Andcreatesthesmallcityadvisorycommittee.


32


ThebillestablishesrequirementsforthedistributionofConnectOregonfunds.

Transfersthejurisdictionofvarioushighwaystolocalgovernments.

Additionalgasandvehicleregistrationtaxrevenuesallocateddirectlytothecities,counties,andODOT.AddedgastaxrevenuesforthecountiesandcitiesasidentifiedinHB2017areconsideredapass‐throughrevenueandareidentifiedaslocalfundsforthecitiesandcountiesontopoftheirexistinggastax/vehicleregistrationrevenuesthatareidentifiedintheirlocalrevenuetemplates

Additional employer/employee payroll tax revenues generated as a result of HB2017 are considered local revenues and are identified in the local revenue section.

3.9 Local Revenue Assumptions

Transportation System Plans (TSPs)

Threecounties(Clackamas,Multnomah,andWashington)plus24citieswithinthemcomprisetheMetroMPOarea.Asof2015,theMPOpopulationisabout1.6millionandrapidlygrowing.Withinthisareaaretwomajortransitagencies(TriMetandSMART)servingthetransitneedswithinthethreecounties.Localrevenuetemplatesummariesweredevelopedforeachagencyusingtheagency’sTransportationSystemPlan(TSP)astherevenueasshowinFigure1.EachTSPincludesa20yearpriorityofneeds,projectsandanidentificationofrevenuesto

Figure 1. Example of Agency Local Revenue Template


33


supporttheprojects.

Theoretically,thiseffortwouldhavequicklyproducedasoundlocalrevenuefoundationforeachagency.FromeachTSP,basicdraftrevenuetemplatesweredevelopedsummarizingtheavailablelocalrevenuesgeneratedorcollectedbytheagency.Thiseffortshouldhaveproducedareliablebasicfoundationoflocalrevenuesforeachagency.However,virtuallyeveryagencydiscoveredrevenuelogic,computational,ormethodologydiscrepanciesintheirTSPs.Asaresult,Metroworkedwitheachleadagencytoreview,update,andcorrecttherevenuesassumptionsandestimates.

Eachagencyhadtoverifytherevenueprogramestimatedannualortotalrevenuestheprogramprojectedwouldbegenerated.Nearlyallofthelocalrevenueprogramsdidnotincludegrowthmultiplierstoaddressforinflationoverfutureyears.Therefore,Metro’sreviewformostofthelocalrevenueprogramsdidnotrequirediscountingandhavebeenincludedasconstantrealdollarsintheconstrainedRTPforecast.ThereasoninflationarygrowthmultiplierswerenotusedintheTSPswerebasedonalackofpropergrowthassumptionsavailablefortherevenueprograms.Ratherthanoverestimatethegenerationoflocalrevenuesfrominflation,localagenciesacceptedtheTSPsconservativerevenuefindings.Note:Someprogramsdidincluderevenuegrowthfrompopulationgrowthandtheimpactontheproject.However,againtheydidnotincludeinflationarygrowthfactors.Assuch,therevenueswereconsideredalreadydiscounted.

Oncetheannualamountandlengthofapplicablegenerationperiod,orthetotalamountandlogicbehindthetotal,wasdetermined,theannualamountsweredeterminedforeachRTPyear(2018‐2040)alongwithRTPdivisionyearrequiredtotals.

Figure 2


34


O&Mversuscapitalimprovementneedssummationstotalsforeachcityandcountywereestimatedbyeachjurisdictiontodeterminethetotalcapitalrevenuesthatwouldbeavailableineachcounty.Oncethisamountwasknown,eachcountyworkedwiththeirmemberagenciestodeterminethelatitudeandflexibilitytheymayhaveinpoolingtheirresourcestosupportlaterprojectsubmissionsintotheRTP.TheeffortalsohelpeddefinethefirstconstrainedrevenueceilingfortheRTPbasedonlyonlocalfundsforeachcounty.Example:OnthepreviouspageinFigure3,theestimatedlocalrevenuesareshownforClackamasCountyalongwiththeO&MversusCapitalrevenuesplit.ThetotalsnotonlyrevealdifferentO&Mrequirements,butoverallaboutone‐thirdofthetotallocalrevenuesareavailableforcapitalimprovementsontheregionalnetwork.Whilethereexistsatotalof$1.79billioninpossiblelocalrevenues,two‐thirdsarealreadycommittedforlocalO&Mneedswithinthecounty.

Whileeachagency’srevenuesourcesdiffered,therewasacommonalityamongthemaswell.Overtheyears,localagencieswithintheMetroMPOboundaryhavepassedvariousrevenue assessmentsandspecialtaxestohelpthemmeettheirtransportationO&Mandcapitalneeds.Asummaryoftheprogramsincludethefollowing:

Bike/pedestrianspecificprogramstosupportcommutertrail/activetransportationprojects

StreetImprovement/MaintenancePrograms–Locallydevelopedandimplemented

StreetImprovement/MaintenancePrograms–Countydeveloped,participationwiththeCounty

FranchiseFeeprograms

GainShareprograms

LocalGasTaxprograms

GeneralSpecialAllocations(fromtheagency’sGeneralFunds)

MajorStreetTransportationImprovementProgram(MSTIP)(WashingtonCounty)

Figure 3. Example of County Level – Local Revenues with Split between O&M and Capital


35


Miscellaneousprograms(interestgeneratingprogramssupportingtransportation,etc.)

ParkingFeeprograms

PrivateDeveloperCreditContributions

PropertyTaxtransportationimprovementallocations

RoadUtilityFeeprograms

SpecialFundingDistrictAssessments

SystemDevelopmentCharges(SDC)–Locallydevelopedandmanaged

SystemDevelopmentCharges(SDC)Countydevelopwithlocalparticipation

TransportationDevelopmentTax(TDT)programs

GeneralObligation/CapitalBondprograms

TransportationandStormDrainageUtilityprograms

SchoolPartnershipprograms

StreetLightFeeprograms

UrbanRoadandMaintenanceprograms


36


4.0 REVENUE SOURCE SUMMARY

4.0 Revenue Source Summary ...................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.1 Revenue Source Scenarios and Overview ............................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.2 Federal Revenue Forecasts (by fund type or funding program) .......... Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.3 State and Federal Combined Revenue Forecasts ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.4 Summary of State and Federal Combined Constrained Revenues ...... Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.5 Local Revenues ..................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.6 Constrained Revenue Sources Split Across RTP Division Years ........... Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.1 Revenue Source Scenarios and Overview

Thetablesonthefollowingpagesdescribethespecificrevenueassumptionsusedtodevelopthefinanciallyconstrained2018‐2040RTP.Developingthefinalconstrainedrevenuescenariobeganbyconsideringfourpossiblefuturefundingpossibilitiesforthefederalrevenues.BasedonthefutureeconomicconditionstheLRFAworkgroupreviewedandevaluated(alsodiscussedinSection2),theLRFAconsideredthemostlikelyfundingscenariostheregioncouldexpectandiftheymatchedupwiththefourfundingscenarios.Aspartoftheevaluation,theLRFAalsoestablishedanannualinflationarygrowthof3.1%asthetargetinflationrate.Anyrevenuescenariowouldbejudgedagainsttheannualinflationaryrate.Basedontheeconomicindicatorsfourfundingscenarioswereestablishedforconsideration.Theyincluded:

ExistingResources–NoAction(ER‐NA)Thisfundingscenarioisbasedonthe10‐yearaveragetheregionhasreceivedwithoutanyannualgrowthincluded.Itrepresentstheminimumamountoffundingtheregionmightreceive.Insomecaseswherethehistoricalannualfundinghasbeensporadicornotconsistentlyavailable,theworstcasescenarioofa$0fundingbalancewasapplied.TheER‐NAscenariorepresentsapooreconomicoutlook,unresolvedhighwaytrustfundissues,poorrevenuesbeingavailable,andwouldnotkeepupwithannualinflationrates.Theevaluationoftheeconomicindicatorsdidnotmatchuporsupportthelogicofthisscenario.Therefore,itwaseliminatedasareasonablerevenuescenario.

FinanciallyConstrainedThisscenariogenerallyrepresentsamorepositiveeconomicgrowthscenario.IthasbeendividedintoarangeamongaConservativeScenario,ModerateScenario,andOptimisticScenarioasfollows:

o ConservativeScenario:Thisfundingscenariocanbedescribedasasloworweakgrowthrevenuescenario.ItutilizestheprojectedFY2018annualallocation(orhistoricalaverageifFY2018wasnotavailable)andappliedasmallpositiveannualgrowthamountintherangeofabout1%to1.5%tothefederalrevenues.Whileitwouldreflectanannualpositivechange,itdidnotmatchupconsistentlywithpasthistoricalallocations.Italsoreflectsarevenuescenariothatiswellshortoftheability


37


tosufficientlykeepupwithannualinflation.Thisrevenue scenariowasdeemedexcessivelyconservativeanddismissedasapossiblefundingscenario.

o OptimisticScenario:Thisrevenuescenariocanbebestdescribedasanever‐endinghoteconomy”.Theoptimisticrevenuescenarioprovidesgoingrevenuegrowththatwouldoutpaceinflation.Federalfundannualgrowthwouldhavetoexceed3.1%.Whiletheeconomicindicatorssuggestashort‐termhoteconomymightemergefromtimetotime,thefearofuncontrolledexpansionandhyper‐inflationwouldquicklyresultfederalmonetaryconstraintpoliciesthenegatethehoteconomy.Also,theideaofasustainedhoteconomyovera23‐yearperiodseemedunrealisticaswell.Asaresult,theoptimisticrevenuescenariowaseliminatedfromconsideration.

o ModerateScenario:Themoderatescenarioincreasestheannualgrowthforthefederalrevenues.Thereviewandevaluationoftheeconomicindicatorsfavoredamoderatescenarioabovetheconservativescenario,butbelowtheOptimisticscenario.FromthereviewoftheeconomicindicatorsandthenewlypassedFASTAct,theLRFAestablisheda2.2%annualgrowthrateforthefederalfunds.Thiseffectivelysplitsthedifferencebetweentheconservativeandoptimisticrevenues.At2.2%,theLRFAagreedthegrowthwasstillreasonableandmetthe“reasonableavailability”definitionofconstrainedrevenuesfortheRTP.Revenuefundingtableswerethendevelopedforthevariousidentifiedfederalrevenues.

TheestimatedrevenueswerecalculatedinYearofExpenditure(YOE)andinmanycasesdiscounted2016dollars.Uponreviewoftheestimatedrevenues,MetroconcurredwiththeLRFA’sassumptionanddeterminedtheserevenuerecommendationswouldbeusedforMetro’snewRTP.TheserecommendationsarethefederalrevenueprojectionsMetrohasusedindevelopingtheconstrainedRTPRevenueForecastandareshowninSection4.2.Belowisasampletable(federalFTA5310revenueestimates)fromtheLRFAFundingAssumptionsRevenueTables.

WhiletherevenueforecastsaremuchstrongerthantheConservativeScenario,theModerateRevenueScenarioat2.2%annualgrowthstillfailstokeepupwithannualinflationwhichwasestablishedat3.1%resultinginadiminishingpurchasingpowerof thefederalfundsandaneedfortheregiontolookatotherfundingoptions.

Indevelopingtherevenueforecasts,theLRFAevaluatedthemajoreconomicindicatorsandfundingtrendsthatarediscussedinthebeginningofthisFinancialPlan.Metro’sreviewsupportedtheLRFA’sfindings.Wefoundnodiscrepancieswiththeiranalysesorfinancialconclusions.Therefore,MetrochosetofollowtheLRFArecommendationsascloselyaspossibletodevelopMetro’sfinalfinanciallyconstrainedrevenueforecastforthenewRTP.

BecauseofthewayODOTmanages,allocates,andprioritizestheirfundingrequirementsfromacentralizedstate‐wideapproach,itODOTRegion1couldnotbreak‐outtheirfederalfundingrevenueestimatesbasedontheLRFAstatewideprojections.However,Metroattemptedtodeterminethefederalrevenuesbasedon


38


fundingprogramforODOT.ThisisdetailedfurtherintheStateportioninSection4.3.Overall,thecombinedfederalandstaterevenuesforbothhighwaycapacity,highwayO&M,andtransitneedsareestimatedtobeapproximately$9.2billion.

StrategicUnconstrainedScenario:Thisscenarioisnotfinanciallyconstrainedandexistsoutsideoftheconstrainedrevenueforecast.Itwasnotconsideredasaviableoptionfortheconstrainedrevenueforecast.Itdoesnotrepresenttheconceptof“reasonablyavailablefunding.”However,itservesanimportantpurposetohelpdefinetheunfundedneededsegmentbeyondtheconstrainedrevenuesthattheregionrequirestoadequatelymeettheRTP’scapitalandoperationsandmaintenance(O&M)goalsandstrategies.

TheStrategicUnconstrainedScenariorepresentsanexercisetoidentifyadditionalfundingtomeettheRTPsystemimprovementneedsabovetheconstrainedrevenues.Whetherthisamountis120%,150%,175%,ormorebeyondtheconstrainedavailablerevenuesisnotyetknown.ThiswillbeuptotheJointPolicyAdvisoryCommitteeonTransportation,theadvisorybodyforMetro’sMPOfunctions,todetermine.Byestablishingthestrategicunconstrainedrevenuescenario,regionalleaderswillbeabletoconsiderifandwhere


39


additionallocalorstatetransportationrevenuesourcescouldbedevelopedtosupportthestrategicscenario.

4.2 Federal Revenue Forecasts (by fund type or funding program)

Federal Revenue Forecast (Highway/Active/ITS – Non Transit Allocations)

Fundand

AdministratorDescription

2018‐2040Amount Notes

CongestionMitigationAirQuality(CMAQ)ImprovementFunds–Metroallocation(FHWA)

Description:TheFASTActcontinuedtheCMAQprogramtoprovideaflexiblefundingsourcetoStateandlocalgovernmentsfortransportationprojectsandprogramstohelpmeettherequirementsoftheCleanAirAct.FundingisavailabletoreducecongestionandimproveairqualityforareasthatdonotmeettheNationalAmbientAirQualityStandardsforozone,carbonmonoxide,orparticulatematter(nonattainmentareas)andforformernonattainmentareasthatarenowincompliance(maintenanceareas).

$258,496,858

ODOTLongRangeFundingAssumptions(LRFA)workgrouprecommendationat2.2%annualgrowthfrom2016‐2018.Revisedstatewideformulaamountin2019andthenconvertedto2018constantdollarsoutto2040

FederalMiscellaneous(Discretionarygrantse.g.Tiger,FASTLane,INFRA,ITS,etc.)(FHWA/FTA)

Description:BasedondiscussionsandahistoricalreviewwithODOTandthelocalagencies,thisfundingrepresentsvariousdiscretionaryfederaltransportationgrantsgenerallyforcapitalpurposesthelocalagenciesshouldreceiveovertheRTPhorizonperiod

$100,000,000

Primarilyinvolvesgrantsforroadwayimprovementsat$100millionoverlifeofRTP.Stateinconstantdollars–nodiscounting

BridgeProgram‐Local(HBRR‐L)

Description:Providesfundingforreplacement,rehabilitationandsystematicpreventivemaintenanceoftheNation'shighwaybridges.

$130,725,698

Anticipatedtobesplitamongthethreecountieswithapproximately80%toMultnomahCountybasedonpasthistory.Discountedintoconstant2016$s

HighwaySafetyImprovementProgram(HSIP)(ODOTfromFHWA)

Description:TheprogramwasestablishedunderSAFETEA‐LUconsolidatingseveralsafety‐basedhighwayprogramsandcreatingnewsafetyprogramsdesignedtoachieveasignificantreductionintrafficfatalitiesandseriousinjuriesonallpublicroads.

$33,435,611

PertheLRFAassumption:50%ofappropriatedHSIPwillbeallocatedtothelocalagencies/Discountedintoconstant2016$s

Rail‐HighwaysCrossings

Description:TheFASTActcontinuestheRailway‐

$14,580,943Intendedforgradeseparationneedsor


40



Fundand

AdministratorDescription 2018‐2040

AmountNotes

HighwayCrossingsprogram,whichprovidesfundsforsafetyimprovementstoreducethenumberoffatalities,injuries,andcrashesatpublicrailway‐highwaygradecrossings.

othereligibleimprovements.Discountedintoconstant2016$s.

Modernization/Enhance–Local(ODOTfromFHWA)

Description:CombinationofappropriatedfederalfundstoOODTwhicharethenallocatedthroughdiscretionarymeansintheEnhanceprogramtothelocalagenciesforcapitalneeds

$50,279,114Intendedforcapitalneeds.Discountedintoconstant2016$s.

MetropolitanPlanning(PL)FHWA)

Description:TheFASTActcontinuestheMetropolitanPlanningprogram.TheProgramestablishesacooperative,continuous,andcomprehensiveframeworkformakingtransportationinvestmentdecisionsinmetropolitanareas.ProgramoversightisajointFederalHighwayAdministration/FederalTransitAdministrationresponsibility.

$37,793,352

FY2017&18averageallocationusedfor2017&018andthendiscountedintoconstant2018$soutto2040.

StatewideandNonMetropolitanPanning(SPR)(FHWA/FTA)

Description:TheFASTActcontinuesthestatewideandnonmetropolitanplanningprocess,whichestablishesacooperative,continuous,andcomprehensiveframeworkformakingtransportationinvestmentdecisionsthroughouttheState.OversightofthisprocessisajointresponsibilityoftheFederalHighwayAdministrationandtheFederalTransitAdministration.

$50,161,089

Basedonhistoricalaveragesandthendiscountedintoconstant2016$s

SurfaceTransportationProgram(STBG)Funds–Metroallocation(FHWA)

Description:TheSurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)ProgramprovidesflexiblefundingthatmaybeusedbyStatesandlocalitiesforprojectstopreserveandimprovetheconditionsandperformanceonanyFederal‐aidhighway,bridgeandtunnelprojectsonanypublicroad,pedestrianandbicycleinfrastructure,andtransitcapitalprojects,includingintercitybusterminals.

$559,305,291

ODOTLRFAfundingrecommendationin2018YOEandthendiscountedbackintoin2018constant$soutto2040

ClackamasCountySurface

Description:RuralSTBGallocatedand

$21,127,499 ODOTLRFAfundingrecommendationfor


41



Fundand


AmountNotes

TransportationBlockGrant(STBG)Allocation(FHWA)

administeredbyODOTtoClackamasCounty.

2018inYOEandthenmaintainedinconstant2018$soutto2040

MultnomahCountySurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)Allocation

Description:RuralSTBGallocatedandadministeredbyODOTtoMultnomahCounty.

$5,131,973

ODOTLRFAfundingrecommendationfor2018inYOEandthenmaintainedinconstant2018$soutto2040

WashingtonCountySurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)Allocation(FHWA)

Description:RuralSTBGallocatedandadministeredbyODOTtoWashingtonCounty.

$10,892,047

ODOTLRFAfundingrecommendationfor2018inYOEandthenmaintainedinconstant2018$soutto2040

TransportationAlternatives(TA‐Metro)(FHWA)

Description:TheFASTActeliminatestheMAP‐21TransportationAlternativesProgram(TAP)andreplacesitwithaset‐asideofSurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)programfundingfortransportationalternatives(TA).Theseset‐asidefundsincludeallprojectsandactivitiesthatwerepreviouslyeligibleunderTAP,encompassingavarietyofsmaller‐scaletransportationprojectssuchaspedestrianandbicyclefacilities,recreationaltrails,saferoutestoschoolprojects,communityimprovementssuchashistoricpreservationandvegetationmanagement,andenvironmentalmitigationrelatedtostormwaterandhabitatconnectivity

$30,132,315

ODOTLRFAfundingrecommendationfor2018inYOEandthendiscountedinconstant2018$soutto2040

FederalHighwaysTotals(NonODOT Application): $1,290,864,879


42


Federal Revenue Forecast (Transit Grant Allocations)

Fundand


AmountNotes

Section5303Metropolitan&StatewidePlanningandNon‐MetropolitanTransportationPlanning–5303‐Formula(FTA)

Description:Providesfundingandproceduralrequirementsformultimodaltransportationplanninginmetropolitanareasandstates.Planningneedstobecooperative,continuous,andcomprehensive,resultinginlong‐rangeplansandshort‐rangeprogramsreflectingtransportationinvestmentpriorities.

$11,932,005AllocatedtoODOTandthentoMetrofortransitUPWPplanningpurposes

ThebelowFTASectionfundsaretransitformulafundsthatareallocatedtoTriMetandSMARTSection5307UrbanizedAreaFormula5307Grants(FTA)

ProvidesfundingtopublictransitsystemsinUrbanizedAreas(UZA)forpublictransportationcapital,planning,jobaccessandreversecommuteprojects,aswellasoperatingexpensesincertaincircumstances.

$1,064,712,000

FormulaallocationtotheUZAandsplitamongTriMet,CTRAN,andSMART.CTRANalreadyremoved.(OverallformulasplitamongthethreeusedwasTriMet=87%,CTRAN=12%,andSMART=1%.)Fundscombinedwithotherformulafundsinclude5307,5310,5337,and5339.Fundsarediscountedinto2016$s.Note:FTAformulafundsaresenttotheUZAcombinedtogether.

Section5337StateofGoodRep[airGrants‐5337

Description:TheStateofGoodRepairGrantsProgram(49U.S.C.5337)providescapitalassistanceformaintenance,replacement,andrehabilitationprojectsofhigh‐intensityfixedguidewayandbussystemstohelptransitagenciesmaintainassetsinastateofgoodrepair.Additionally,SGRgrantsareeligiblefordevelopingandimplementingTransitAssetManagementplans.

Section5339GrantsforBusesandBusFacilitiesFormulaProgram‐5339(a).

DescriptionProvidesfundingtostatesandtransitagenciesthroughastatutoryformulatoreplace,rehabilitateandpurchasebusesandrelatedequipmentandtoconstructbus‐relatedfacilities.Inadditiontotheformulaallocation,thisprogramincludestwodiscretionarycomponents:TheBusandBusFacilitiesDiscretionaryProgramandtheLoworNoEmissionsBusDiscretionaryProgram.

Section5310EnhancedMobilityofSeniors&

Description:Thisprogram(49U.S.C.5310)providesformulafundingtostatesforthepurposeofassistingprivate

SplitbetweenTriMetandSMARTviaagreedformulaApproximatesplitof


43


Federal Revenue Forecast (Transit Grant Allocations)

Fundand


AmountNotes

IndividualswithDisabilities‐Section5310

nonprofitgroupsinmeetingthetransportationneedsofolderadultsandpeoplewithdisabilitieswhenthetransportationserviceprovidedisunavailable,insufficient,orinappropriatetomeetingtheseneeds

5310shareforTriMet=79.48%

State(ODOT)AllocatedSTBGFlexto5310

Description:ThesefundsreflectadditionalStateSTBGfundsthatwillbeflex‐transferredtoFTAinsupportof5310programareaneeds.

$84,100,000Allocation=100%toTriMetdiscountedinto2016$

FTA5309NewStarts/SmallStartsgrants

Description:HCT(MAXLine)futureexpansionwilloccurwithanassumptionthat40%oftherequiredfundingwillbesourcedfromFTASection5309NewStartsandSmallStartsgrantsunsupportoftheHCTexpansion.

$2,850,000,000MultiplefederalgrantsfortheexpansionofHCTMAXlines

FederalTransitTotals: $4,010,744,005

4.3 State and Federal Combined Revenue Forecasts

State to Transit Revenue Forecast

Fundand


AmountNotes

LotteryFundstoTransitCapitalOregonLegislature

ForRTPplanningpurposes todemonstratetheexpectedstatecontributiontotheHCT.Metro,TriMet,andtheODOTLRFAhaveidentifiedStateLotteryfundsasonepotentialfundingsourcetorepresentthestatecontribution

$353,920,000

ThefundsrepresenttheexpectedStatesupportforthenewplannedMaxlightraillinesdiscountedinto2016$s

SpecialTransportationFund(STF)

TheSTFProgramprovidesaflexible,coordinated,reliableandcontinuingsourceofrevenueinsupportoftransportationservicesforpeoplewhoareseniorandpeoplewithdisabilitiesofanyage

$160,697,430

ODOTLRFAestimatesin2016$swhichincludeaprojected1%annualrealgrowthrate

Totals: $514,617,430


44


State Revenue Forecast (HB2017 - Highway/Active/ITS – Non Transit Allocations)

Fund/Programand


AmountNotes

HB2017Section71a,b,&cRoseQuarter

Description:Provides$30millionperyearafter2021topaydebtserviceforbondstofinancetheI‐5RoseQuarterProject

$375,000,000OffthetopinsupportoftheRoseQuarterimprovementproject

HB2017Section71a,b,&cSafeRoutestoSchoolsProgram

Description:Provides$10millionperyear(2018‐2021)andthen$15millionperyearafter2022fortheSafeRoutestoSchoolProgram

$31,387,500

81%of31%formulasplitforMetroMPOregionoutofthetotal$125milliontobeallocatedstatewide

HB2017Section71dHighway,RoadandStreetProjects

Description:RequiresOTCtousethebondproceedstofinancenamedtransportationprojectswithineachODOTRegionthatinclude:

Columbia Blvd Pedestrian SafetyImprovements

PowellBlvdImprovements I‐205ATMS I‐205CorridorBottleneck OR217NBAuxLane OR217SBAuxLane ImprovementstoGrahamRdatI‐84inthecityofTroutdale

$248,200,000

Region1totalallocation(includingoutofMPOareas)of$249,700,000.InMPOareatotals$248,200,000

HB2017BridgesSections71a,b,&cDesignatesaportionofHB2017fundingforHighwaySafety

Description:Allocates$10millionperyear(2018‐2021)andthen$15millionafter2020(2022‐2027)fora130milliontotal.BridgeportioninMetroMPOareaincludes: US30SandyRiver(Troutdale

Bridge–BR#02019) OR99WTualatinRiverNBbridge I‐5OverHassaloStandHolidaySt

$11,952,000

SafetyPurposes:Upto40%forbridgesIdentifiedfundingisforRegion1MPOareaforB

HB2017Maintenance,Sections71a,b,&cDesignatesaportionofHB2017fundingforHighwaySafety

Description:Allocates$10millionperyear(2018‐2021)andthen$15millionafter2020(2022‐2027)fora130milliontotal.Maintenance,pavementrehab,andculvertsreplacementportioninMetroMPOareaincludesapproximately16identifiedprojects

$23,987,000

SafetyPurposes:Upto24%formaintenanceandreplacementofpaymentsandculverts


45


State Revenue Forecast (HB2017 - Highway/Active/ITS – Non Transit Allocations)

Fund/Programand


AmountNotes

HB2017Safety,Sections71a,b,&cDesignatesaportionofHB2017fundingforHighwaySafety

Description:Allocates$10millionperyear(2018‐2021)andthen$15millionafter2020(2022‐2027)fora130milliontotal.Safety/Maintenance/Preservationimprovements:2projectsidentified: I‐84EastPortlandFwy–NE181st

Ave I‐84Fariview–MarineDr&Tooth

RockTunnel

$4,600,000

SafetyPurposes:Upto6%formaintenance,preservationandsafetyimprovements

Totals: $701,626,500

State and Federal Combined Revenue Forecast (ODOT Capital Programs)

FundorProgramand


AmountNotes

MinimumModernization(Mod)Program(capital)(ODOT)

Description:ODOT’sModernizationprogram,whichisusedtopayforhighwayimprovementsthataddcapacity,suchaswideningahighway,buildingabypass,orimprovinganinterchange

$264,970,933

Comprisedofbothfederalandstatefundingelementsindiscounted2016$

RemainingJTAFunding(capital)(OregonLegislature)

Description:In2009,theLegislativeAssemblyenactedtheOregonJobsandTransportationActof2009(JTA).JTAauthorizesanumberoftransportationprograms.Thefundingiswindingdownandwillexpireduringthefirstten‐7earperiodofthe2018RTP

$10,000,000ExpectedtobeexpendedbytheendofthefirstRTP10‐yearperiod

NationalHighwayFreightProgram(FHWA)

Description:TheFASTActestablishesanewNationalHighwayFreightProgramtoimprovetheefficientmovementoffreightontheNationalHighwayFreightNetwork(NHFN)andsupportseveralfreightrelatedinfrastructureimprovementgoals

$67,374,013

BasedonLRFAtablesformodernizationneedsinitiallyestimatedinYOEandthendiscountedbackinto2016$s

FederalDiscretionary(capital)

Variousfederaldiscretionarytransportationgrants(FastLane,INFRA,Tiger,ITS,etc.)ODOTanticipatestheywillreceiveoverthe

$150,000,000

Revenuesbasedonpasthistoryofabout$6.5millionaverageperyearwithnogrowth.ODOT


46


State and Federal Combined Revenue Forecast (ODOT Capital Programs)

FundorProgramand


AmountNotes

(FHWA) RTPhorizonyear estimatesthatoverthe23RTPhorizonyear,theywouldsecureatotalof$150millioninvariousformsofdiscretionarytransportationfunds(e.g.FASTLane,INFRA,TIGER,ITS,etc.

ModLegislatureFutureUndefinedforCapitalpurposes(OregonLegislatureOTC)

RemainingrevenuesforcapitalimprovementsoverthelifeoftheRTP

$501,028,554

RemainingestimatedfundingovertheRTPhorizonyearswhentheOregonLegislaturepassesafollow‐ontransportationprogram(2028‐20240timeframe)

TotalStateandFederalRevenueEstimatesinSupportofODOTRegion1Mod/EnhancePrograms:

$993,373,500

State and Federal Combined Revenue Forecast (ODOT Non-Capacity Fix-it/O&M Program)

FundingProgramand

AdministratorDescription Amount Notes

Fix‐ItProgramOregonLegislatureOTC

Description:TheFix‐ItprogramincludesfundingcategoriesthatmaintainorfixODOT’sportionofthetransportationsystem.Thisisthenon‐capacityenhancingoperationsandmaintenance(O&M)componenttoODOT’soverallsystempreservation.TherearegenerallyfourmajorcategoriesofFix‐itprogramswhichincludeBridges(repair/rehabilitate),Culverts(repair/replace),HighwayPavementMaintenance,andSafetyandoperations

$1,635,898,375

Estimatesfromthecurrent2018‐2021and2021‐2024draftSTIPwithastraight‐lineprojectionoutto2040,thendiscountedbackinto2018$

TotalfederalandStatecombinedrevenuesforODOT: $1,635,898,375


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Fix-It Non-Capacity Project Grouping Buckets Proposed for the RTP

Project Grouping Description

Project Grouping

Bucket Programming

Notes

Bridge Rehabilitate&Repair

Minorrepair/rehabilitateprojects.Outof the total identified Fix‐it revenuesapproximately20%will be committedtotheBridgeProgram

$327,179,675Projectgroupingtotalcostthreshold=$5million

Culverts RepairandReplace

Repair and replacement eligibleprojects that do not change theroadway existing capacity. Out of thetotal identified Fix‐it revenuesapproximately10%will be committedtotheBridgeProgram

$163,589,838Projectgroupingtotalcostceilingthreshold=$5million

Highway PavementMaintenance

Non‐capacity pavementrehabilitation/repair projects thatcouldincludeoverlays,slurryseals,fullpavement replacement, and otherminor non‐capacity roadwayimprovements (curb and gutters,adding/widening shoulders as long asthe project remains exempt and willclear NEPA as a CE. Out of the totalidentified Fix‐it revenuesapproximately30%will be committedtotheBridgeProgram

$490,769,513Projectgroupingtotalcostceilingthreshold=$5million

Safety andOperationsImprovements

Allincludedgroupingprojectsmustbenon‐ capacity type projectimprovements,mustbeexemptforairqualityanalysis,mustclearNEPAwithaCEandcan’texceedthe totalprojectcost threshold of $5 million. Projectsthat exceed the threshold must beindividually identified in the RTP asstand‐ alone projects. Eligible safetyandoperationalimprovementsforthisproject grouping may include thefollowing: Highwaycrossingsimprovements Roadway safety (non capacity

repairs/rehabilitation Landslides/rockfallsmitigation Illumination/Signals,ITS

Out of the total identified Fix‐itrevenues approximately 40% will becommittedtotheBridgeProgram

$654,359,350Projectgroupingtotalcostthreshold=$5million

Total: $1,635,898,375 Notes:

1. All projects eligible to be included in a project grouping must clearly demonstrate that they are not capacity enhancing projects.

2. Only projects that will clear NEPA with a CE are eligible to be included in the project grouping bucket. 3. All projects in the project grouping bucket must be exempt for air quality analysis and clearly show they meet this

requirement per 40 CFR 93.126, Table 2 and 40 CFR 93.127, Table 3. 4. Specific project listings are not required to be submitted for the identified project groupings in the RTP. They are required

when used in the MTIP.


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5. The funding amount stated in the project groupings do not represent additional revenues, but an estimated commitment from the total Fix-It program for the four identified project grouping buckets.

6. The threshold amounts reflect a total project cost ceiling for the applicable bucket. If the project has a total project cost above the ceiling threshold it will need to be added to the RTP as a stand-alone project and may not be included in the project grouping bucket

7. While not capacity enhancing, the Fix-it program projects are considered to be regionally significant as they are: Located on the Metro Roadway Arterials and Throughway system network Will most likely receive federal funds and become federalized Are expected to complete NEPA with a CE Reflect a federal, state, and/or local funding investment ensuring the operations and maintenance needs for the

Arterials and Throughways network are being addressed.

4.4 Summary of State and Federal Combined Constrained Revenues

Table4.2aboverepresentsatotalfundingoffederalandstateconstrainedrevenuesdividedbytheirallocationorprogramsource.Thetotalestimatedconstrainedfederalandstaterevenuesforbothhighwayandtransitneedsis$9,197,285,778.

4.5 Local Revenues

AsnotedinSection3.10,localagenciesutilizemultipleassessments,taxes,andothermeanstogeneratetransportationrevenuesfortheirjurisdiction.Onlyaportionofthetotalgeneratelocalrevenuescanbeappliedforcapitalprojectneeds.Somejurisdiction’soperationsandmaintenance(O&M)annualrequirementscanconsumeashighas100%oftheiravailablelocalfunds.Comparingotherjurisdictions,theirannualO&Mrequirementsrange,andcanconsumebetween50%‐90%ofthetotallocalfundsgenerated.AsaresultlocalagenciesstrugglewiththeabilitytomeettheirannualO&Mrequirementsandstillretainsufficientlocalfundsforcapitalandexpansionneeds.Thetablebelowprovidesathree‐countyandtheCityofPortlandsummaryoflocalrevenuesandtheiridentifiedamountforcapitalprojectneeds.


49


Local Revenues

FundingProgramand

AdministratorDescription

EstimatedTotalLocalRevenues

EstimatedLocalRevenues

AvailableforCapitalNeeds

Note

ClackamasCountyandcities

VariouslocalgeneratedrevenueprogramsandsupplementalHB2017GasTax/VehicleRegistration/PrivilegeTaxrevenues

$2,209,275,760 $691,356,735

ThedifferencebetweenthetotalrevenuesandtheamountstatedforcapitalrevenuesreflectsthecommitmenttoO&Mneeds

MultnomahCountyandcities,exceptPortland


$1,288,751,923 $611,943,311

CityofPortland


$7,446,616,996 $1,057,448,518

WashingtonCountyandcities

Comprisedofvariouslocalrevenueprograms,TransportationDevelopmentTax(TDT)program,MajorStreetsTransportationImprovementProgram(MSTIP),andsupplementalHB2017GasTax/VehicleRegistration/PrivilegeTaxrevenues

$4,585,983,011 $2,610,468,866

TotalEstimatedLocalRevenues $15,530,627,690 $4,971,217,430

Local Revenues for Transit

FundingProgramandAdministrator

DescriptionEstimatedTotalLocalRevenues

Notes


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SMARTEmployer/SelfEmployedPayrollTaxRevenues

Grosspayrolland/orselfemploymentearningstaxassessedinWilsonvilleareabusinesses

$99,440,592

SMARTPassengerFareBoxReturns

Passengergeneratedrevenues $5,033,803

SMARTETax(STIF)Revenues

StatewideTransportationImprovementsFund(STIF)revenues(fromHB2017)

$23,000,000Estimatedat$1millionperyear

SMARTLocalRevenuesSubtotal: $127,474,395 TriMet‐Employer/SelfEmployedPayrollTaxRevenues

EmployerpaidpayrolltaxsupportingTriMet

$13,336,849,257

TriMet‐StatecontributioninLieuofPayrollTaxPayments

Statecontributioninplaceofpayrolltax $53,738,329

TriMet‐ETax(STIFRevenues)

StatewideTransportationImprovementsFund(STIF)revenues(fromHB2017)

$1,506,105,812

TriMet–PasengerRevenues/FareBoxReturns

Passengergeneratedrevenues $3,242,550,104

TriMet–OtheroperatingRevenues

ReflectsmultiplesmallerlocalrevenueprogramsTriMetmanages

$689,893,847Summationofmultiplesmallerlocalrevenueprograms

TriMet–InterestRevenuesLocalrevenuesreflectinginterestgains

$48,739,220

TriMetLocalRevenuesSubtotal: $18,877,876,569

TotalEstimatedLocalTransitRevenues: $19,005,350,964

4.6 Constrained Revenue Sources Split Across RTP Division Years

Federal Fund or Funding Program Revenue Sources – Split by RTP Division Year

Fund

Scenario 2018-2027 2028-2040 Total Notes

Federal FHWA (Highway & non ODOT implementation) Revenues for Regional Improvements

CMAQ‐Metro

2019revisedallocationreducedby1%eachyear

$121,089,200 $137,407,658 $258,496,858

LRFAin2018thenrevisedformulain2019andconvertedto2018$sat1%reduction

FederalDiscretionaryMiscellaneous

RTPYOEtotalof$100millionthendiscountedinto2016$s

$43,478,260 56,521,740 $100,000,000

Miscellaneousfederalgrants(FastLane,INFRA,TIGER,ITS,etc.)thelocalagenciesarereasonablyexpectedtosecureoverthelifeoftheRTP(forcapitalpurposes)

HighwayBridgeReplacementandRehabilitationProgram‐Local

LRFA estimates in YOE then discounted into 2016 $s

$60,564,850 $70,944,986 $33,435,611

HBRR-L program with funding allocated the three counties to address bridge rehabilitation and repair needs.


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(HBRR‐L)

HighwaySafetyImprovementProgram(HSIP)

LRFAYOEstatewideestimates.31%toRegion1with81%remainingintheMPO,discountedbackto2016$s

$15,490,625 $17,944,986 $33,435,611

Outofthetotalstatewideannualallocation,50%isexpectedtobecommittedtolocalagencyprojectswiththeremaining50%stayingwithODOT

Rail‐HighwaysCrossings


$6,755,310 $7,825,633 $14,580,943Reflectstheallocationlocalagencieswillhaveaccessto.

Modernization/Enhance‐Local


$23,294,173 $26,984,941 $50,279,114

FundingexpectedtobeavailablefromODOT’sEnhanceDiscretionaryprogramforlocalcapitalprojectneeds

PL‐Metro2018$sbasedonhistoricalaverages

$17,509,554 $20,283,798 $37,793,352

Constrainedprojection–Moderatescenariousinghistoricalaverageandthendiscountedinto2018$s

StatePlanning&Research(SPR)

LRFAin2016$sbasedon81%of31%allocation

$23,239,492 $26,921,597 $50,161,089

LRFAestimatesarestatewide.MPOallocationbasedon81%of31%allocatedtoRegion1

STBG‐MetroLRFAgrowYOE,thendiscountedinto2018$s

$259,124,177 $300,180,715 $559,305,291DirectSTBGapportionmentMetroreceives

STBGClackamasCounty

LRFAgrowthto2018thendiscountedinto2018$s

$9,788,311 $11,339,188 $21,127,499RuralSTBGcountyallocations

STBGMultnomahCounty

2.2%LRFAscenariothendiscountedinto2018$

$2,377,629 $2,754,344 $5,131,973 RuralSTBGcountyallocations

STBGWashingtonCounty

2.2%LRFAthendiscountedinto2018$

$5,406,255 $5,845,792 $10,892,047RuralSTBGCountyallocations

TA‐Metro2.2%LRFAthendiscountedinto2018$s

13,960,217 $16,172,098 $30,132,315FormerlyTAPunderMAP‐21.NowasubcategorywithinSTBG

Totals: $615,074,177 $725,951,791 $1,341,025,968

FederalTransitRevenues

Fund

Scenario 2018‐2027 2028‐2040 Amount Notes

Section5303Planning

LRFAthendiscountedinto2016$s

$5,526,946 $6,405,059 $11,932,005 PlanningfundstoMetro

FormulaSection5307/

LRFAYOE,thensplitbyUZA $489,456,000 $575,256,000 $1,064,712,000 Annualtransitformula

fundsallocatedtothe


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5337/5339 formula.thendiscountedinto2016$s

PortlandOR‐WAUZAconsistingofTriMet,CTRAN,andSMART

State(ODOT)AllocatedSTBGFlexto5310

LRFAestimatesalreadydiscountedinto2016$s

$39,600,000 $44,500,000 $84,100,000

ODOTSTBGflextransferredtoFTAsupportingtransitelderlyanddisabledneedsconsistentwiththe5310program.100%toTriMet

FTA5309New/SmallStartsdiscretionarygrantrevenues

LRFAestimatesbasedonMetroandODOTLRFAconcurrence

$1,450,000 $1,400,000,000 $2,850,000,000

Atotalof$2.85billionofNewStartsandSmallStartswillbeneededtosupporttheHCTexpansionasmeasuredinconstantdollars

Totals: $1,984,582,946 $2,026,161,059 $4,010,744,005 AllknownFTAbasedtransitfunds

StateAllocationtoTransitRevenueUsesForecast(countstowardstransitneeds)

Funds


Lotteryfundstotransitcapital

LRFAestimatestoPortlandarea

79,140,000 $274,780,000 $353,920,000AssumesalltoTriMetanddiscountedinto2016$s

SpecialTransportationFunds

LRFAestimatestoTriMet

$65,376,845 $95,320,585 $160,697,430

AssumesalltoTriMet.LRFAestimatesdiscountedto2016$swith1%AARG

Totals: $144,516,845 $370,100,585 $514,617,430 LocalCity/CountyFunds

Funds


ClackamasCountyandCities

Annualaverages

$911,449,978 1,297,825,782 $2,209,275,760

Sources:TSPs,agencybudgethistories,CIPs,historicalaverages,agencyreviews,estimations,andprojections

MultnomahCountyandCitiesexceptPortland

Annualaverages

$508,690,610 $780,061,313 $1,288,751,923

WashingtonCountyandCities

AnnualAverages

$2,068,857,530 $2,517,125,481 $4,585,983,011

CityofPortlandAnnualAverages

$3,208,442,120 $4,238,174,876 $7,446,616,996

Totals: $6,697,440,238 $8,833,187,452 $15,530,627,690 LocalTransitFunds

Funds


SMARTPayrollTax

Annualaverage $43,235,040 $56,205,552 $99,440,5925‐yearhistoricalaverageof$4,323,504projectedoutto2040

SMARTFareBoxReturn

Annualaverage $2,188,610 $2,845,193 $5,033,8035‐yearhistoricalaverageof$216,861projectedoutto2040

SMARTETax(STIF)

AnnualAverage $10,000,000 $13,000,000 $23,000,000 SourceisHB2017


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TriMetPayrollTax

Agencydeveloped

$4,412,923,949 $8,923,925,309 $13,336,849,257Historicalaveragesprojectoutto2040

TriMet–StateInLieuofPayroll

LRFAestimatestoTriMet

$22,611,157 $31,127,172 $53,738,329LRFAestimates/Agencyconcurrence

TriMetETaxSTIF

HB2017/Agencydeveloped

$510,661,738 $995,444,074 $1,506,105,812 SourceisHB2017

TriMetPassenger/FareBoxReturns

Agencydeveloped

$1,308,008,545 $1,934,541,559 $3,242,550,104Agencyaveragesandprojections

TriMetOtherOperatingRevenues

Agencydeveloped

$267,466,437 $422,427,410 $689,893,847Agencyaveragesandprojections

TriMetInterestRevenues

Agencydeveloped

$20,505,873 $28,233,347 $48,739,220 Agencyprojections

Totals: $6,597,601,348 $12,407,749,616 $19,005,350,964


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5.0 REVENUE PROGRAMS GLOSSARY

5.0 Revenue programs glossary ..................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

5.1 Key Federal Revenues ....................................................................................................................... 53

5.2 Federal Transit Agency Sourced Funding .......................................................................................... 58

5.1 Key Federal Revenues

Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Funds

TheFASTActcontinuedtheCMAQprogramtoprovideaflexiblefundingsourcetoStateandlocalgovernmentsfortransportationprojectsandprogramstohelpmeettherequirementsoftheCleanAirAct.FundingisavailabletoreducecongestionandimproveairqualityforareasthatdonotmeettheNationalAmbientAirQualityStandardsforozone,carbonmonoxide,orparticulatematter(nonattainmentareas)andforformernonattainmentareasthatarenowincompliance(maintenanceareas).

EligibleActivities

Fundsmaybeusedforatransportationprojectorprogramthatislikelytocontributetotheattainmentormaintenanceofanationalambientairqualitystandard,withahighlevelofeffectivenessinreducingairpollution,andthatisincludedinthemetropolitanplanningorganization’s(MPO’s)currenttransportationplanandtransportationimprovementprogram(TIP)orthecurrentstatetransportationimprovementprogram(STIP)inareaswithoutanMPO.

TheFASTActaddedeligibilityforverifiedtechnologiesfornon‐roadvehiclesandnon‐roadenginesthatareusedinport‐relatedfreightoperationslocatedinozone,PM10,orPM2.5nonattainmentormaintenanceareasfundedinwholeorinpartunder23U.S.C.orchapter53of49U.S.C.[23U.S.C.149(b)(8)(A)(ii)]

TheActalsospecificallymakeseligibletheinstallationofvehicle‐to‐infrastructurecommunicationsequipment.[23U.S.C.149(b)(9)]

TheFASTActcontinueseligibilityforelectricvehicleandnaturalgasvehicleinfrastructureandaddspriorityforinfrastructurelocatedonthecorridorsdesignatedunder23U.S.C.151.[23U.S.C.149(c)(2)]

TheFASTActamendedtheeligibleusesofCMAQfundssetasideforPM2.5nonattainmentandmaintenanceareas.PM2.5set‐asidefundsmaybeusedtoreducefineparticulatematteremissionsinaPM2.5nonattainmentormaintenancearea,including:

Dieselretrofits;

Installationofdieselemissioncontroltechnologyonnon‐roaddieselequipmentoron‐roaddieselequipmentthatisoperatedonahighwayconstructionprojects;and


55


Themostcost‐effectiveprojectstoreduceemissionsfromport‐relatedlandsidenonroadoron‐roadequipmentthatisoperatedwithintheboundariesofthearea.[23U.S.C.149(k)(2)&(4)]

UnlikeSTPfunding,theeligibilityforusingCMAQmustfocusondirectairqualityimprovementprojectsthatreduceharmfulpollutantsthatincludeozone,carbonmonoxide,andparticulatematter(PM).ThefocusonairqualityimprovementcriteriarequiresnominatedprojectstoundergoamuchmoredetailedlevelofreviewtoensuretheproposedimprovementsareeligibleforCMAQfunding.

Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG)

TheFASTActconvertsthelong‐standingSurfaceTransportationProgramintotheSurfaceTransportationBlockGrantProgramacknowledgingthatthisprogramhasthemostflexibleeligibilitiesamongallFederal‐aidhighwayprogramsandaligningtheprogram’snamewithhowFHWAhashistoricallyadministeredit.TheSTBGpromotesflexibilityinStateandlocaltransportationdecisionsandprovidesflexiblefundingtobestaddressStateandlocaltransportationneeds.

EligibleProjectsandActivities

LocationofProjects(23U.S.C.133(c)):STBGprojectsmaynotbeundertakenonaroadfunctionallyclassifiedasalocalroadoraruralminorcollectorunlesstheroadwasonaFederal‐aidhighwaysystemonJanuary1,1991,except‐

Forabridgeortunnelproject(otherthantheconstructionofanewbridgeortunnelatanewlocation);

Foraprojectdescribedin23U.S.C.133(b)(4)‐(11)anddescribedbelowunder"EligibleActivities"(b)(4)through(11);

Fortransportationalternativesprojectsdescribedin23U.S.C.101(a)(29)beforeenactmentoftheFASTAct(thesearedescribedin23U.S.C.133(h)andinseparateTASet‐Asideguidance.);and

AsapprovedbytheSecretary.

EligibleActivities(23U.S.C.133(b)):Subjecttothelocationofprojectsrequirementsinparagraph(a),thefollowingeligibleactivitiesarelistedin23U.S.C.133(b):

Construction,asdefinedin23U.S.C.101(a)(4),ofthefollowing:

o Highways,bridges,andtunnels,includingdesignatedroutesoftheAppalachiandevelopmenthighwaysystemandlocalaccessroadsunder40U.S.C.14501;

o Ferryboatsandterminalfacilitieseligibleunder23U.S.C.129(c);transitcapitalprojectseligibleunderchapter53oftitle49,UnitedStatesCode;

o Infrastructure‐basedintelligenttransportationsystemscapitalimprovements,includingtheinstallationofvehicle‐to‐infrastructurecommunicationequipment;


56


o TruckparkingfacilitieseligibleunderSection1401ofMAP‐21(23U.S.C.137note);and

o BorderinfrastructureprojectseligibleunderSection1303ofSAFETEA‐LU(23U.S.C.101note).

Operationalimprovementsandcapitalandoperatingcostsfortrafficmonitoring,management,andcontrolfacilitiesandprograms.Operationalimprovementisdefinedin23U.S.C.101(a)(18).

Environmentalmeasureseligibleunder23U.S.C.119(g),328,and329,andtransportationcontrolmeasureslistedinSection108(f)(1)(A)(otherthanclause(xvi)ofthatsection)oftheCleanAirAct(42U.S.C.7408(f)(1)(A)).

Highwayandtransitsafetyinfrastructureimprovementsandprograms,includingrailway‐highwaygradecrossings.

Fringeandcorridorparkingfacilitiesandprogramsinaccordancewith23U.S.C.137andcarpoolprojectsinaccordancewith23U.S.C.146.Carpoolprojectisdefinedin23U.S.C.101(a)(3).

Recreationaltrailsprojectseligibleunder23U.S.C.206,pedestrianandbicycleprojectsinaccordancewith23U.S.C.217(includingmodificationstocomplywithaccessibilityrequirementsundertheAmericanswithDisabilitiesActof1990(42U.S.C.12101etseq.)),andtheSafeRoutestoSchoolProgramunderSection1404ofSAFETEA‐LU(23U.S.C.402note).

Planning,design,orconstructionofboulevardsandotherroadwayslargelyintheright‐of‐wayofformerInterstateSystemroutesorotherdividedhighways.

DevelopmentandimplementationofaStateassetmanagementplanfortheNationalHighwaySystem(NHS)andaperformance‐basedmanagementprogramforotherpublicroads.

Protection(includingpainting,scourcountermeasures,seismicretrofits,impactprotectionmeasures,securitycountermeasures,andprotectionagainstextremeevents)forbridges(includingapproachestobridgesandotherelevatedstructures)andtunnelsonpublicroads,andinspectionandevaluationofbridgesandtunnelsandotherhighwayassets.

Surfacetransportationplanningprograms,highwayandtransitresearchanddevelopmentandtechnologytransferprograms,andworkforcedevelopment,training,andeducationunderchapter5oftitle23,UnitedStatesCode.

Surfacetransportationinfrastructuremodificationstofacilitatedirectintermodalinterchange,transfer,andaccessintoandoutofaportterminal.

Projectsandstrategiesdesignedtosupportcongestionpricing,includingelectronictollcollectionandtraveldemandmanagementstrategiesandprograms.

UponrequestofaStateandsubjecttotheapprovaloftheSecretary,ifTransportationInfrastructureFinanceandInnovationAct(TIFIA)creditassistanceisapprovedforanSTBG‐eligibleproject,thentheStatemayuseSTBGfundstopaythesubsidyandadministrativecostsassociatedwithprovidingFederalcreditassistancefortheprojects.


57


ThecreationandoperationbyaStateofanofficetoassistinthedesign,implementation,andoversightofpublic‐privatepartnershipseligibletoreceivefundingundertitle23andchapter53oftitle49,UnitedStatesCode,andthepaymentofastipendtounsuccessfulprivatebidderstooffsettheirproposaldevelopmentcosts,ifnecessarytoencouragerobustcompetitioninpublic‐privatepartnershipprocurements.

Anytypeofprojecteligibleunder23U.S.C.133asineffectonthedaybeforetheFASTActwasenacted.Amongtheseare:

o Replacementofbridgeswithfillmaterial;

o Trainingofbridgeandtunnelinspectors;Applicationofcalciummagnesiumacetate,sodiumacetate/formate,orotherenvironmentallyacceptable,minimallycorrosiveanti‐icinganddeicingcompositionsforbridges(andapproachestobridgesandotherelevatedstructures)andtunnels;

o Projectstoaccommodateothertransportationmodescontinuetobeeligiblepursuantto23U.S.C.142(c)ifsuchaccommodationdoesnotadverselyaffecttrafficsafety;

o Transitcapitalprojectseligibleforassistanceunderchapter53oftitle49,UnitedStatesCode,includingvehiclesandfacilities(publiclyorprivatelyowned)thatareusedtoprovideintercitypassengerbusservice;

o Approachroadwaystoferryterminalstoaccommodateothertransportationmodesandtoprovideaccessintoandoutoftheports;

o Transportationalternativespreviouslydescribedin23U.S.C.101(a)(29)anddescribedin23U.S.C.213;

o Projectsrelatingtointersectionshavingdisproportionatelyhighaccidentrates,highlevelsofcongestion(asevidencedbyinterruptedtrafficflowattheintersectionandalevelofserviceratingof"F"duringpeaktravelhours,calculatedinaccordancewiththeHighwayCapacityManual),andarelocatedonaFederal‐aidhighway;

o ConstructionandoperationalimprovementsforanyminorcollectoriftheminorcollectorandtheprojecttobecarriedoutareinthesamecorridorandinproximitytoanNHSroute;theconstructionorimprovementswillenhancethelevelofserviceontheNHSrouteandimproveregionaltrafficflow;andtheconstructionorimprovementsaremorecost‐effective,asdeterminedbyabenefit‐costanalysis,thananimprovementtotheNHSroute;

o x.Workforcedevelopment,training,andeducationactivitiesdiscussedin23U.S.C.504(e);

o Advancedtruckstopelectrificationsystems.Truckstopelectrificationsystemisdefinedin23U.S.C.101(a)(32);

o Installationofsafetybarriersandnetsonbridges,hazardeliminations,projectstomitigatehazardscausedbywildlife;

o Electricvehicleandnaturalgasvehicleinfrastructureinaccordancewith23U.S.C.137;

o Datacollection,maintenance,andintegrationandthecostsassociatedwithobtaining,updating,andlicensingsoftwareandequipmentrequiredforrisk‐basedasset


58


managementandperformancebasedmanagement,andforsimilaractivitiesrelatedtothedevelopmentandimplementationofaperformancebasedmanagementprogramforotherpublicroads;

o Constructionofanybridgeinaccordancewith23U.S.C.144(f)thatreplacesanylowwatercrossing(regardlessofthelengthofthelowwatercrossing);anybridgethatwasdestroyedpriortoJanuary1,1965;anyferrythatwasinexistenceonJanuary1,1984;oranyroadbridgethatisrenderedobsoleteasaresultofaCorpsofEngineersfloodcontrolorchannelizationprojectandisnotrebuiltwithfundsfromtheCorpsofEngineers.NotsubjecttotheLocationofProjectrequirementin23U.S.C.133(c);and

o Actionsinaccordancewiththedefinitionandconditionsin23U.S.C.144(g)topreserveorreducetheimpactofaprojectonthehistoricintegrityofahistoricbridgeiftheloadcapacityandsafetyfeaturesofthehistoricbridgeareadequatetoservetheintendeduseforthelifeofthehistoricbridge.NotsubjecttotheLocationofProjectrequirementin23U.S.C.133(c).

Transportation Alternatives (TA-Metro)

TheFASTActeliminatestheMAP‐21TransportationAlternativesProgram(TAP)andreplacesitwithaset‐asideofSurfaceTransportationBlockGrant(STBG)programfundingfortransportationalternatives(TA).Theseset‐asidefundsincludeallprojectsandactivitiesthatwerepreviouslyeligibleunderTAP,encompassingavarietyofsmaller‐scaletransportationprojectssuchaspedestrianandbicyclefacilities,recreationaltrails,saferoutestoschoolprojects,communityimprovementssuchashistoricpreservationandvegetationmanagement,andenvironmentalmitigationrelatedtostormwaterandhabitatconnectivity.

Federal Lands Access Program (G200) [13]

ThepurposeoftheFederalLandsAccessProgram(AccessProgram)providesfundsforprojectsonFederalLandsaccesstransportationfacilitiesthatarelocatedonoradjacentto,orthatprovideaccesstoFederallands.

Equity Bonus (LZ20)

TheEquityBonusprovidesfundingtoStatesbasedonequityconsiderations.TheseincludeaminimumrateofreturnoncontributionstotheHighwayAccountoftheHighwayTrustFund.Generally,committedfundstakeontheeligibilityandmatchrequirementsoftheprogramtheyareaddedto.Forplanningpurposes,thestandardSTPfederalshareof89.73%withamatchrequirementof10.27%isusedforprogrammingpurposes.

Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)

TheHSIPprogramisintendedtoachieveasignificantreductionintrafficfatalitiesandseriousinjuriesonallpublicroads,includingnon‐State‐ownedpublicroadsandroadsontriballands.TheHSIPrequiresadata‐driven,strategicapproachtoimprovinghighwaysafetyonallpublicroadsthatfocusesonperformance.Thefederalshareisnormally90%whichrequiresaparticipantmatchofatleast10%.


59


Metropolitan Planning Funds (PL)

TheFASTActcontinuestheMetropolitanPlanningprogram.TheProgramestablishesacooperative,continuous,andcomprehensiveframeworkformakingtransportationinvestmentdecisionsinmetropolitanareas.ProgramoversightisajointFederalHighwayAdministration/FederalTransitAdministrationresponsibility.ThefundsareprimarilyusedinsupportofMetro’sannualUnifiedPlanningWorkProgram(UPWP)

State Planning & Research (SPR):

TheStatePlanningandResearchProgramfundsStates'statewideplanningandresearchactivities.Thefundsareusedtoestablishacooperative,continuous,andcomprehensiveframeworkformakingtransportationinvestmentdecisionsandtocarryouttransportationresearchactivitiesthroughouttheState.

5.2 Federal Transit Agency Sourced Funding

Section 5307 Urbanized Area Formula Grants:

ThisprogramprovidesgrantstoUrbanizedAreas(UZA)forpublictransportationcapital,planning,jobaccessandreversecommuteprojects,aswellasoperatingexpensesincertaincircumstances.InthegreaterPortlandregionTriMetandSMARTaretheprimarydirectrecipientsof5307funds.Thefederalshareisnormally80%whichrequiresaparticipatingmatchof20%.Onenotableexceptionexiststothematchrequirement.Ifthe5307willbeusedforaJobAccessReverseCommute(JARC)project,therequiredmatchnowis50%againsta50%federalshare.

Section 5309 Fixed Guideway Capital Investment Grants (New Starts)

Providesgrantsfornewandexpandedrail,busrapidtransit,andferrysystemsthatreflectlocalprioritiestoimprovetransportationoptionsinkeycorridors.Thefederalshareisnormally80%whichrequiresaparticipatingmatchof20%.

RevenueScenarios:TheBasescenariousedtheFY2018amountfollowedbytheeleven‐yearhistoricalaveragewithnogrowth.TheConstrainedscenariousedFY2018amountwith1%annualgrowth.TheAdequatelyConstrainedusedFY2018amountwith2%annualgrowth.

Section 5310 Enhanced Mobility for Seniors and Individuals with Disabilities

Section5310fundsareintendedtoimprovemobilityforseniorsandindividualswithdisabilitiesbyremovingbarrierstotransportationserviceandexpandingtransportationmobilityoptions.Thisprogramsupportstransportationservicesplanned,designed,andcarriedouttomeetthespecialtransportationneedsofseniorsandindividualswithdisabilitiesinallareas–largeurbanized(over200,000),smallurbanized(50,000‐200,000),andrural(under50,000).EligibleprojectsincludebothtraditionalcapitalinvestmentandnontraditionalinvestmentbeyondtheAmericanswithDisabilitiesAct(ADA)complementaryparatransitservices.


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Atleast55percentofprogramfundsmustbeusedoncapitalor“traditional”5310projects.Examplesinclude:

Busesandvans;wheelchairlifts,ramps,andsecurementdevices;transit‐relatedinformationtechnologysystemsincludingscheduling/routing/one‐callsystems;andmobilitymanagementprograms.

Acquisitionoftransportationservicesunderacontract,lease,orotherarrangement.Bothcapitalandoperatingcostsassociatedwithcontractedserviceareeligiblecapitalexpenses.User‐sidesubsidiesareconsideredoneformofeligiblearrangement.Fundsmayberequestedforcontractedservicescoveringatimeperiodofmorethanoneyear.Thecapitaleligibilityofacquisitionofservicesasauthorizedin49U.S.C.5310(b)(4)islimitedtotheSection5310program.

Theremaining45percentisforother“nontraditional”projects.UnderMAP‐21,theprogramwasmodifiedtoincludeprojectseligibleundertheformer5317NewFreedomprogram,describedas:CapitalandoperatingexpensesfornewpublictransportationservicesandalternativesbeyondthoserequiredbytheADA,designedtoassistindividualswithdisabilitiesandseniors.Examplesinclude:

Traveltraining;

Volunteerdriverprograms

Buildinganaccessiblepathtoabusstopincludingcurb‐cutssidewalks,accessiblepedestriansignalsorotheraccessiblefeatures

Improvingsignage,orway‐findingtechnology

Incrementalcostofprovidingsamedayserviceordoor‐to‐doorservice;purchasingvehiclestosupportnewaccessibletaxi,ridessharingand/orvanpooling,programs

Mobilitymanagement.

Section 5312 Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment Projects

Section5312supportsresearchactivitiesthatimprovethesafety,reliability,efficiency,andsustainabilityofpublictransportationbyinvestinginthedevelopment,testing,anddeploymentofinnovativetechnologies,materials,andprocesses;carryoutrelatedendeavors;andtosupportthedemonstrationanddeploymentoflow‐emissionandno‐emissionvehiclestopromotecleanenergyandimproveairquality.UnderMAP‐21,5314fundswhichareverysimilarwereconsolidatedintothe5312program.Thefederalshareisnormally80%ofthetotalprojectcostwhichrequiresa20%participatingmatch.

Section 5337 State of Good Repair Formula Grants

Section5337fundsarededicatedtorepairingandupgradingthenation’srailtransitsystemsalongwithhigh‐intensitymotorbussystemsthatusehigh‐occupancyvehiclelanes,including


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busrapidtransit(BRT).Thefederalshareisnormally80%ofthetotalprojectcostrequiringaparticipatingmatchof20%.


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REFERENCES

1. 23CFR§450.322,DevelopmentandContentoftheMetropolitanTransportationPlan.

2. 23CFR§450.322(f)(10)(i‐viii)(FinancialPlanoverviewandrequirements).

3. OregonEconomicandRevenueForecast,OfficeofEconomicAnalysis,OregonDepartment

ofAdministrativeServices,May2015.

4. “Crushed:DowEntersCorrectionTerritoryAfterBiggestSelloffinFourYears”,VictoriaCraig,FoxBusinessNews,August21,2015.

5. BureauofLaborStatistics:Oregon10‐YearHistory(2005‐2015)forLaborForceParticipation,Employment,Unemployment,andUnemploymentRate,http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.or.htm

6. U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,QuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWages,2012‐2014Comparison,http://www.bls.gov/cew/apps/data_views/data_views.htm#tab=Tables

7. U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,LocalAreaUnemploymentStatistics,Portland‐Vancouver‐HillsboroMSA,http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.or_portland_msa.htm

8. UnitedStatesInflationRates,TradingEconomics,http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united‐states/inflation‐cpi/forecast

9. FederalHighwayTrustFundOverview,

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/fifahiwy/fifahi05.htm

10. “HighwayTrustFundBasics:APrimeronFederalSurfaceTransportationSpending”,MichaelSargent,TheBackgrounder,Number3014,TheHeritageFoundation,May11,2015.

11. TableR.2,GeneralFundForecastSummary,page30,OregonEconomicandRevenueForecast,VolumeXXXV,May,2015

12. FHWACMAQProjectDevelopmentProcessflowchart,FHWACMAQBrochure,

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/air_quality/cmaq/reference/brochure/brochure08.cfm

13. MAP‐21FactSheets,FederalLandsAccessProgram,http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/map21/factsheets/flap.cfm

14.

15. FinancialAssumptionsfortheDevelopmentofMetropolitanTransportationPlansSFY2012‐2040),OregonDepartmentofTransportation(ODOT),PlanningSection,Long‐RangePlanningUnit,February2011.

16.


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If you picnic at Blue Lake or take your kids to the Oregon Zoo, enjoy symphonies at the Schnitz or auto shows at the convention center, put out your trash or drive your car – we’ve already crossed paths.

So, hello. We’re Metro – nice to meet you.

In a metropolitan area as big as Portland, we can do a lot of things better together. Join us to help the region prepare for a happy, healthy future.

Metro Council PresidentTom Hughes

Metro CouncilorsShirley Craddick, District 1Betty Dominguez, District 2Craig Dirksen, District 3Kathryn Harrington, District 4Sam Chase, District 5Bob Stacey, District 6

AuditorBrian Evans

Stay in touch with news, stories and things to do.oregonmetro.gov/news

If you have a disability and need accommodations, call 503-220-2781, or call Metro’s TDD line at 503-797-1804. If you require a sign language interpreter, call at least 48 hours in advance.

For more information, visit oregonmetro.gov/rtp

Printed on recycled-content paper

June 25, 2018

600 NE Grand Ave. Portland, OR 97232-2736 503-797-1700503-797-1804 TDD503-797-1795 fax

What do you think?

Comment on the draft 2018 Regional Transportation Plan June 29 through Aug. 13, 2018.

Submit comments:• online at oregonmetro.gov/rtp • by mail to Metro Planning

600 NE Grand Ave. Portland, OR 97232

• by email to [email protected]

• by phone at 503-797-1750 or TDD 503-797-1804.

Explore the interactive project map and other information at oregonmetro.gov/2018projects.


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